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NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

CARDS_rule_the_Burgh said:
Here's the breakdown for each comparison:
(Posting from my iPad, so this won't look as pretty..)

OZ - UC

WIN 0.696 vs. 0.696 - Tie
SOS 0.487 vs. 0.494 - UC by .007
RNK 0.400 vs. 0.000 - Oz by .400*
L25. 0.500 vs. 0.750 - UC by .250
H2H 0.750 vs. 0.250 - OZ by .500
COP 0.800 vs. 0.682 - OZ by 0.118

*Can you compare a number to a divide-by-zero? Oz probably takes this just for having played RNK games...



Anyway, Oswego wins 3 comparisons by decent margins, while UC wins 2 comparisons by narrow margins and 1 comparison is a tie. In the end, this is about as close as comparisons get, and I'm guessing it came down to how the criteria are weighted.
Click to expand...
Thats all fine and well, but the metrics used by the NCAA this week, link to data found here, shows Utica winning 4-0-1. Next week may have other metrics.
 
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Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

spwood said:
My point is that with only a six or seven game sample, it depends greatly on who you played...
Click to expand...
Agree. If the end of your schedule is light then that 25% has a different weight than someone else has.:confused: Don't really like this.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Birds said:
Agree. If the end of your schedule is light then that 25% has a different weight than someone else has.:confused: Don't really like this.
Click to expand...


Cake advantage will be offset by impact to SOS & RNK.
 
UCBadger said:
Thats all fine and well, but the metrics used by the NCAA this week, link to data found here, shows Utica winning 4-0-1. Next week may have other metrics.
Click to expand...

That's where I got my data (besides H2H, COP, and RNK, which are easy to calculate). That doesn't show what metrics they use, it just shows the ones that apply to all comparisons (It's hard to show H2H and COP on a general data sheet like that). Also, The data on that sheet Shows OWP, OOWP, and weighted SOS... But it is only the weighted SOS that is compared. The other two are just components of the SOS calculation.

When comparing 2 teams, the committee uses the following criteria:
-Winning percentage
-Weighted Strength of Schedule
-Head to head record
-Record against common opponents
-Record against ranked teams
-Winning Percentage over the last 25% of the season

Those are the criteria. Every time. The only thing that varies is how they're weighted against each other.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Ok, so I guess we are back to the original question. Why was Utica ranked and Oswego not ranked instead of the other way around? Very heavy weighting of L25? And, don't forget, Utica was not the last ranked east region team.
 
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Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

joecct said:
check the date of the NCAA data.
Click to expand...
Strange aye? Yesterday's data was there yesterday and that is what to what I referred. Translate: Its not my fault that the NCAA's site has changed, nor am I that unknowledgeable as to this year's dates, records, or process.
 
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Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

UCBadger said:
Strange aye? Yesterday's data was there yesterday and that is what to what I referred. Translate: Its not my fault that the NCAA's site has changed, nor am I that unknowledgeable as to this year's dates, records, or process.
Click to expand...

You get use to the fact that when the NCAA ever releases something, never take it serious with out checking the dates. It happens every year. You're better off doing you own data like most of us have. Personally I think it's pretty obvious here...with Oswego have such a WIDE margin over Utica and the absence of Fishman over the past 48 hours, that he once again held the NCAA committee hostage so they had to put Utica into the rankings, be it so far down that their chances are about 0, but none the less in the ranking.

Good little chart....

Oswego vs Utica
WIN 0.6957 1 0.6818 0
SOS 0.4949 0 0.5015 1
H2H 1- 0- 1 1 0- 1- 1 0
COP 8- 2- 0 1 7- 3- 1 0
RNK 1- 2- 2 0 0- 0- 0 0
=====================
PTS 3 1
=====================
PWR 12 6

Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pwc/d-iii-men-east/team-by-team/#ixzz2trwWiPHg
 
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Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

PSUChamps2001 said:
You get use to the fact that when the NCAA ever releases something, never take it serious with out checking the dates. It happens every year. You're better off doing you own data like most of us have. Personally I think it's pretty obvious here...with Oswego have such a WIDE margin over Utica and the absence of Fishman over the past 48 hours, that he once again held the NCAA committee hostage so they had to put Utica into the rankings, be it so far down that their chances are about 0, but none the less in the ranking.
Click to expand...

Good thing I was alone in the office when I read this because my co-waorkers would have given me some strange looks when I started laughing so loadly
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

I would imagine those who are interested have already found this - but, here is d3hockey's bracketology:

http://d3hockey.com/bracketology/men/13-14/feb-18


On another note, it looks like Geneseo would need to be flown to Lewiston if they made it. Despite being in the East region they were 539 miles from the FF site according to the NCAA mileage calculator. Mainly just a piece of trivia, as the committee just tries to reduce opening round and quarterfinal flights. Nothing they can do about a team making it to Final 4 and needing to fly there. Only way it would affect the bracket is if both Geneseo and Bowdoin made the tournament they would try to avoid a play-in or quarterfinal involving those 2 teams.
 
UCBadger said:
Strange aye? Yesterday's data was there yesterday and that is what to what I referred. Translate: Its not my fault that the NCAA's site has changed, nor am I that unknowledgeable as to this year's dates, records, or process.
Click to expand...

However, I can assure you that, when I got the data to which I referred, it was the current year's data.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

CARDS_rule_the_Burgh said:
And we finally have updated data sheets from the NCAA! Available at links on this page. Of note, this confirms that they are now looking at the last 25% of the season as primary criteria.

Here's the data for the ranked teams (I calculated RNK myself):
Code: 
[U]TEAM[/U]			[U]WIN[/U]	[U]SOS[/U]	[U]RNK[/U]	[U]L25[/U]

1. Trinity		0.857	0.492	0.500	0.833

2. Plattsburgh		0.826	0.498	0.500	0.667

3. Norwich		0.762	0.535	0.600	0.583

4. Babson		0.775	0.534	0.400	0.667

5. Geneseo		0.773	0.499	0.333	0.833

6. Williams		0.659	0.533	0.750	0.417

7. Utica		0.696	0.494	-----	0.750

8. UMass-Boston		0.675	0.521	0.250	0.667


[U]TEAM[/U]			[U]WIN[/U]	[U]SOS[/U]	[U]RNK[/U]	[U]L25[/U]

1. St. Norbert		0.860	0.519	0.750	0.833

2. Adrian		0.880	0.492	0.750	0.750

3. UW-Stevens Point	0.826	0.501	0.917	0.833

4. St. Thomas (Mn.)	0.826	0.503	0.000	1.000

5. UW-Eau Claire	0.717	0.515	0.200	0.667

6. Gustavus Adolphus	0.652	0.533	0.000	0.583
Click to expand...

Cards,
Small detail, but I would think St. Thomas would have a RNK of .500. They defeated Gustavus Adolphus 3 times.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Plattsburgh and Utica are both defeated this weekend. Williams has one more game today with Amherst. Would be interesting if Williams wins and Utica drops out along with OZ moving in.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

My Guess is (assuming Williams wins)

1. Trinitty
2. Geneseo
3. Plattsburgh
4. Norwich
5. Babson
6. Williams
7. Oswego
8. U-mass Boston

Someone else will have to take a shot at the west, good news for the east is St. Thomas, UW-Point, and Eau Claire all split the weekend
 
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Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

I Think Norwich Moves Ahead Of Platty.. Not Only does The LosS To Oswego Hurt Their WIN, But Should Oswego Be Ranked, It Add Another LosS And Tie To Their RNK
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

OSU2010 said:
My Guess is (assuming Williams wins)

1. Trinitty
2. Geneseo
3. Plattsburgh
4. Norwich
5. Babson
6. Williams
7. Oswego
8. U-mass Boston

Someone else will have to take a shot at the west, good news for the east is St. Thomas, UW-Point, and Eau Claire all split the weekend
Click to expand...

Pure shot in the dark here, without looking at the numbers:

1) SNC
2) Adrian
3) UWSP
4) St. Thomas
5) Gustavus
6) UWEC

And I don't think I'm completely sold on GAC jumping over Eau Claire, either.
 
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