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NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

CARDS_rule_the_Burgh said:
And we finally have updated data sheets from the NCAA! Available at links on this page. Of note, this confirms that they are now looking at the last 25% of the season as primary criteria.

Here's the data for the ranked teams (I calculated RNK myself):
Code: 
[U]TEAM[/U]			[U]WIN[/U]	[U]SOS[/U]	[U]RNK[/U]	[U]L25[/U]

1. Trinity		0.857	0.492	0.500	0.833

2. Plattsburgh		0.826	0.498	0.500	0.667

3. Norwich		0.762	0.535	0.600	0.583

4. Babson		0.775	0.534	0.400	0.667

5. Geneseo		0.773	0.499	0.333	0.833

6. Williams		0.659	0.533	0.750	0.417

7. Utica		0.696	0.494	-----	0.750

8. UMass-Boston		0.675	0.521	0.250	0.667


[U]TEAM[/U]			[U]WIN[/U]	[U]SOS[/U]	[U]RNK[/U]	[U]L25[/U]

1. St. Norbert		0.860	0.519	0.750	0.833

2. Adrian		0.880	0.492	0.750	0.750

3. UW-Stevens Point	0.826	0.501	0.917	0.833

4. St. Thomas (Mn.)	0.826	0.503	0.000	1.000

5. UW-Eau Claire	0.717	0.515	0.200	0.667

6. Gustavus Adolphus	0.652	0.533	0.000	0.583
Click to expand...
Thank you.

Anyone surprised/shocked at Utica's record vs. ranked teams?
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

What are you missing ? Oswego has a 4-1 advantage using the PWC. H2H, Winning Pct, Common Opponents, Record vs. Ranked favor Oswego. SOS favors Utica, That's 4-1 for those of you keeping score at home !!


UCBadger said:
You still standing by that statement?
Click to expand...
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

I forgot the last 25% thing they put in this year, so make it 4-2 Oswego. It's academic anyway.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

admiral0417 said:
What are you missing ? Oswego has a 4-1 advantage using the PWC. H2H, Winning Pct, Common Opponents, Record vs. Ranked favor Oswego. SOS favors Utica, That's 4-1 for those of you keeping score at home !!
Click to expand...
I'm not missing anything. You, however, have not looked at the stats used by the NCAA which shows Utica with the slimmest of advantages (or ties) in ALL metrics.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

yea where is Oz??? Does seems a little weird after the pas few yrs or so...ahhh who knows still a few tilts left..would just like to see the best teams in the BIG tourny,these rankign etc etc all seem so nutty...who knows??
 
UCBadger said:
I'm not missing anything. You, however, have not looked at the stats used by the NCAA which shows Utica with the slimmest of advantages (or ties) in ALL metrics.
Click to expand...

Here's the breakdown for each comparison:
(Posting from my iPad, so this won't look as pretty..)

OZ - UC

WIN 0.696 vs. 0.696 - Tie
SOS 0.487 vs. 0.494 - UC by .007
RNK 0.400 vs. 0.000 - Oz by .400*
L25. 0.500 vs. 0.750 - UC by .250
H2H 0.750 vs. 0.250 - OZ by .500
COP 0.800 vs. 0.682 - OZ by 0.118

*Can you compare a number to a divide-by-zero? Oz probably takes this just for having played RNK games...



Anyway, Oswego wins 3 comparisons by decent margins, while UC wins 2 comparisons by narrow margins and 1 comparison is a tie. In the end, this is about as close as comparisons get, and I'm guessing it came down to how the criteria are weighted.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Thank you Nate, I knew that was the case without digging too far into it. One would think that H2H would be weighted the most when everything else is close ?? Like I said, Utica is making the tournament if about 10 teams ahead of them lose all their remaining games so it's academic.
 
admiral0417 said:
Thank you Nate, I knew that was the case without digging too far into it. One would think that H2H would be weighted the most when everything else is close ?? Like I said, Utica is making the tournament if about 10 teams ahead of them lose all their remaining games so it's academic.
Click to expand...

I would also think a win (or 2) over Plattburgh would get Oswego into the rankings which would kill Utica....I guess tho the one tie would be a major plus on Uticas resume......
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

PSUChamps2001 said:
I would also think a win (or 2) over Plattburgh would get Oswego into the rankings which would kill Utica....I guess tho the one tie would be a major plus on Uticas resume......
Click to expand...

If Oswego had defeated Genny and Brockport last weekend, I wonder where they would have sat. Likely where Genny is currently at? What ifs..
 
Ozz said:
If Oswego had defeated Genny and Brockport last weekend, I wonder where they would have sat. Likely where Genny is currently at? What ifs..
Click to expand...

Best thing for Oswego...

They have the chance of playing Geneseo and Plattsburgh once (twice) more...

Utica has zero ranked teams...

The BAD thing for Oswego.....

They have the chance of playing Geneseo and Plattsburgh once (twice) more...
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

PSUChamps2001 said:
Best thing for Oswego...

They have the chance of playing Geneseo and Plattsburgh once (twice) more...

Utica has zero ranked teams...

The BAD thing for Oswego.....

They have the chance of playing Geneseo and Plattsburgh once (twice) more...
Click to expand...
funny........and man theses ranking things are mind numbing ...perhaps we should be like D1 basketball and have 68?? or so teams make the BIG DANCE.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

PSUChamps2001 said:
Best thing for Oswego...

They have the chance of playing Geneseo and Plattsburgh once (twice) more...

Utica has zero ranked teams...

The BAD thing for Oswego.....

They have the chance of playing Geneseo and Plattsburgh once (twice) more...
Click to expand...
ow and then you get into the old,impossible to beat a team 3 times thing..but I could see it happening.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Please refer to '86-87 Oswego-Plattsburgh series !! Didn't you guys play like 14 times ??
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Yes it did seem like half of the season but I think it was 7. 1 at the Cards tourney 2 during the season, 2 in the SUNYAC, 1 in the ECAC and 1 in the NCAA's. Not a great mark on a very good season for the Lakers. But then again we were second to none after the Cards were vacated from the title.
Oswego '88
 
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