NCAA Tournament Prognostications

[gknight]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

1. Trinity (Conn.) 18-3-0 18-4-0
2. Plattsburgh State 18-3-2 18-3-2
3. Norwich 15-4-2 17-5-3
4. Babson 15-4-1 19-4-2
5. Geneseo State 17-5-0 18-5-0
6. Williams 13-6-3 13-6-3
7. Utica 14-5-4 14-5-4
8. Massachusetts-Boston 12-5-3 16-5-4
West Region In-Region Record Overall Record
1. St. Norbert 21-3-1 21-3-1
2. Adrian 20-1-4 20-4-1
3. Wisconsin-Stevens Point 18-3-2 18-3-2
4. St. Thomas (Minn.) 18-3-2 18-3-2
5. Wisconsin-Eau Claire 16-6-1 16-6-1
6. Gustavus Adolphus 13-6-4 13-6-4

Isn't Geneseo's In-Region Record 17-4?

They are 18-5 overall, with a loss to Adrian who is out of region and a win against d2 Franklin Pierce??

 

[Ozz]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Adrian has 4 ties in-region, but only 1 overall

 

[CardFan]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

I would say we could check the reporting form posted at the bottom of the rankings page, but it's from 3 years ago. Oswego's looking GOOD!

Yeah man at least they got the rankings up! Now just got me curious about Trinity. I know little if anything about them.

 

[Hammer]

Isn't Geneseo's In-Region Record 17-4?

They are 18-5 overall, with a loss to Adrian who is out of region and a win against d2 Franklin Pierce??

The specs did change this year. Out of region games are now taken into consideration. That column must be mislabeled.

It would benefit Adrian if Gustavus were to remain ranked.

 

[CardFan]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Yeah and Plattsburgh had one win against Wisc-Superior that didn't seem to be counted here. Oh well not perfect I suppose!

 

[admiral0417]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

I'm quite surprised at a few things. Trinity has a nice team, but I'd rather play them than about 3 other teams in NESCAC. I don't expect their stay at the top to last past this ranking and fully expect them to lose a game vs. Wesleyan this weekend. The other surprise for me was Utica. I would not be happy if I were Oswego or even Amherst. I had Oswego & Amherst ahead of Utica & Mass-Boston.

Note: Our #1 seed in the East lost earlier this year to:.........the Assumption Greyhounds !!!

 

[Hammer]

Yeah and Plattsburgh had one win against Wisc-Superior that didn't seem to be counted here. Oh well not perfect I suppose!

No, they're listed at 18-3-2, with two games to play to get to 25. That game appears to be taken into consideration here.

 

[spwood]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

The women's regional rankings show "In division record" instead of "In region record"....

Click on the spreadsheet link - you end up with 2011 data! The great minds of the NCAA at work!

 

[Hammer]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Does anybody review anything anymore before it gets released??

 

[spwood]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Does anybody review anything anymore before it gets released??

Obviously not - you have two question marks at the end of your sentence!!!

 

[spwood]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

So does anyone have the comparison between Trinity and Plattsburgh? I know Plattsburgh's record against ranked teams is only 2-2, but Trinity only appears to be 1-1. SOS maybe?

 

[Dyce]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Huh. I'd sort of looked at Trinity yesterday, but assumed from their noncon schedule that whatever their NCAA Mystery SOS happens to be would be enough to drop them below Plattsburgh. I mean, they certainly take both COP and WIN% (though it's amusing that the latter is because they managed to lose to Stonehill), and RNK is a wash, but I didn't expect that their advantage in either of those criteria would be enough. Maybe the fact that some of the ECACNE teams they played are insular enough to have decent overall records pushed it up? I dunno.

 

[CardFan]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

No, they're listed at 18-3-2, with two games to play to get to 25. That game appears to be taken into consideration here.

Shouldn't their in region be 17-3-2 and overall be 18-3-2, all due to the Wisc-Superior game. I know this is splitting hairs really, but just not accurate!

 

[spwood]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Shouldn't their in region be 17-3-2 and overall be 18-3-2, all due to the Wisc-Superior game. I know this is splitting hairs really, but just not accurate!

There is no "in-region" this year. All games against Div III competition is now primary criteria.

 

[Dyce]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Shouldn't their in region be 17-3-2 and overall be 18-3-2, all due to the Wisc-Superior game. I know this is splitting hairs really, but just not accurate!

The records listed by the NCAA don't reflect regional play. They're listing a team's DIII record and then its overall record (hence a DII game reappears for Trinity, four for Norwich, etc).

 

[Transplanted Tiger Fan]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

So does anyone have the comparison between Trinity and Plattsburgh? I know Plattsburgh's record against ranked teams is only 2-2, but Trinity only appears to be 1-1. SOS maybe?

Not sure how current the data is, but from here, we get the following:

Plattsburgh vs Trinity
WIN    0.8182  0    0.8571  1
SOS    0.4995  1    0.4863  0
H2H   0- 0- 0  0   0- 0- 0  0
COP   3- 1- 0  0   5- 1- 0  1
RNK   0- 0- 0  0   0- 0- 0  0
=============================
PTS            1            2
=============================
PWR           22           11

EDIT: Obviously the data is not complete, with the absence of RNK values. Maybe tomorrow???

EDIT-EDIT: Also, Plattsburgh's 0.8182 is based on a record of 17-3-2 (only 22 games), so some data is certainly missing.

Cheers,
~TTF

 

[admiral0417]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

CORRECTION: Trinity lost to the Stonehill Skyhawks not Assumption

I'm quite surprised at a few things. Trinity has a nice team, but I'd rather play them than about 3 other teams in NESCAC. I don't expect their stay at the top to last past this ranking and fully expect them to lose a game vs. Wesleyan this weekend. The other surprise for me was Utica. I would not be happy if I were Oswego or even Amherst. I had Oswego & Amherst ahead of Utica & Mass-Boston.

Note: Our #1 seed in the East lost earlier this year to:.........the Assumption Greyhounds !!!

 

[Dyce]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Not sure how current the data is, but from here, we get the following:

Plattsburgh vs Trinity
WIN    0.8182  0    0.8571  1
SOS    0.4995  1    0.4863  0
H2H   0- 0- 0  0   0- 0- 0  0
COP   3- 1- 0  0   5- 1- 0  1
RNK   0- 0- 0  0   0- 0- 0  0
=============================
PTS            1            2
=============================
PWR           22           11

EDIT: Obviously the data is not complete, with the absence of RNK values. Maybe tomorrow???

EDIT-EDIT: Also, Plattsburgh's 0.8182 is based on a record of 17-3-2 (only 22 games), so some data is certainly missing.

Cheers,
~TTF

RNK is simply a tie at 2-2 vs. 1-1. It should also be noted that the precise SOS values probably aren't accurate due to the way the NCAA calculates it. And as you mentioned, Plattsburgh's UWS win seems to be absent from its national comparison for some dumb reason, meaning their WIN% should be a higher, but still not high enough, .826. What I'm taking from this is that I really hope the NCAA doesn't use USCHO's numbers.

 

[admiral0417]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

What earthly reason would there be to have Utica ranked instead of Oswego? The data is not even close.

 

[Dyce]

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

I've been told that the following numbers - .501 for Plattsburgh, .498 for Trinity - are far closer to what the NCAA is actually looking at SOS-wise. This makes the Trinity decision far more understandable, though I still can't help but believe that they've benefited from artificially pumped-up teams that have, in turn, also benefited from artificially pumped-up teams.