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NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

admiral0417 said:
What earthly reason would there be to have Utica ranked instead of Oswego? The data is not even close.
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I am a Utica Fan and I agree, not that I am complaining. Until today I did not think Utica had a chance maybe they are just trying to give those of us who relay on pools B and C something to stay interested in for the end of the year.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

The committees, courtesy D3Hockey:

East

Bill Kangas, Williams (co-chair)
Joe Sassi, Western New England (co-chair)
Brian Dickinson, Brockport State
Neil Sinclair, Skidmore
Frank Millerick, Becker
Gary Heenan, Utica
Bill Beaney, Middlebury
Sue Lauder, Fitchburg State


West

Don Olson, St. Scholastica (co-chair)
Brett Petersen, Gustavus Adolphus (co-chair)
Dan Stauber, UW-Superior
Mike Szkodzinski, Lawrence
Doug Schueller, Saint John's
 
Dyce said:
I've been told that the following numbers - .501 for Plattsburgh, .498 for Trinity - are far closer to what the NCAA is actually looking at SOS-wise. This makes the Trinity decision far more understandable, though I still can't help but believe that they've benefited from artificially pumped-up teams that have, in turn, also benefited from artificially pumped-up teams.
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Oh you mean the ECAC West formula
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

We all have to remember there are two A bids that will go to two teams that are not in the rankings. One to the ECACNE and one to the MASCAC.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

And we finally have updated data sheets from the NCAA! Available at links on this page. Of note, this confirms that they are now looking at the last 25% of the season as primary criteria.

Here's the data for the ranked teams (I calculated RNK myself):
Code: 
[U]TEAM[/U]			[U]WIN[/U]	[U]SOS[/U]	[U]RNK[/U]	[U]L25[/U]

1. Trinity		0.857	0.492	0.500	0.833

2. Plattsburgh		0.826	0.498	0.500	0.667

3. Norwich		0.762	0.535	0.600	0.583

4. Babson		0.775	0.534	0.400	0.667

5. Geneseo		0.773	0.499	0.333	0.833

6. Williams		0.659	0.533	0.750	0.417

7. Utica		0.696	0.494	-----	0.750

8. UMass-Boston		0.675	0.521	0.250	0.667


[U]TEAM[/U]			[U]WIN[/U]	[U]SOS[/U]	[U]RNK[/U]	[U]L25[/U]

1. St. Norbert		0.860	0.519	0.750	0.833

2. Adrian		0.880	0.492	0.750	0.750

3. UW-Stevens Point	0.826	0.501	0.917	0.833

4. St. Thomas (Mn.)	0.826	0.503	0.500	1.000

5. UW-Eau Claire	0.717	0.515	0.200	0.667

6. Gustavus Adolphus	0.652	0.533	0.000	0.583
 
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Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Boy, once you realize that the last 25% of games is only 6 games, I think it shouldn't be used as a primary criteria. Plattsburgh's last six games include games at Williams and at Geneseo (both losses). Trinity's last six games include two away games in Maine and four home games (inlcuding their loss to Williams). Not exactly apples to oranges comparisons. I realize that both teams will play at least three more games and put an almost completely different slate up for that last 25% criteria, but I think careful review has to be put into it before it should be considered...
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

spwood said:
Boy, once you realize that the last 25% of games is only 6 games, I think it shouldn't be used as a primary criteria. Plattsburgh's last six games include games at Williams and at Geneseo (both losses). Trinity's last six games include two away games in Maine and four home games (including their loss to Williams). Not exactly apples to oranges comparisons. I realize that both teams will play at least three more games and put an almost completely different slate up for that last 25% criteria, but I think careful review has to be put into it before it should be considered...
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But a great way to reward those teams (players & staff) who have improved from the beginning and the best to reflect the Champion in the end.
 
norm1909 said:
But a great way to reward those teams (players & staff) who have improved from the beginning and the best to reflect the Champion in the end.
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Agree. When it comes to at large bids, if all things equal you should let in the team playing the best.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

PSUChamps2001 said:
Agree. When it comes to at large bids, if all things equal you should let in the team playing the best.
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My point is that with only a six or seven game sample, it depends greatly on who you played...
 
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