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NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Time for Cardinal fans to stop rooting for Norwich !! We rode them for a few weeks, now we need to reclaim the all-important winning percentage criteria from them. Plattsburgh can rank anywhere from 2-4 in this week's poll and Saturdays game vs. Oswego/Fredonia takes on MUCH more meaning. A Williams loss today is preferred as well.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

VT bragging rights said:
Plattsburgh and Utica are both defeated this weekend. Williams has one more game today with Amherst. Would be interesting if Williams wins and Utica drops out along with OZ moving in.
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Not sure I agree. Plattsburgh won 1 and loss 1 to unranked teams, so how heavy does this count unless of course, Os gets in. Just wondering.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Can somebody help me with the what exactly is in the Last 25%

- Does it round up or down?
- Does it include D-II's?
- Is it a valid comparison in hockey if it only counts D-III games as my 25% is different than your 25%??


Edit: Amherst beat Williams to clinch 2nd place in NESCAC
 
Last edited:
admiral0417 said:
Time for Cardinal fans to stop rooting for Norwich !! We rode them for a few weeks, now we need to reclaim the all-important winning percentage criteria from them. Plattsburgh can rank anywhere from 2-4 in this week's poll and Saturdays game vs. Oswego/Fredonia takes on MUCH more meaning. A Williams loss today is preferred as well.
Click to expand...

I think Platty still has win% over Norwich as well (DII games don't count)
Plattsburgh is 19-4-2 or 0.800
Norwich is 16-4-2 or 0.772
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Well it's Monday so here's another stab at how I think things are playing out currently.

Here's my guess at how the NCAA rankings will look tomorrow from the East.

1. Trinity
2. Norwich
3. Geneseo
4. Plattsburgh
5. Babson
6. Oswego
7. Amherst
8. Williams

Dropped out: Utica and UMass-Boston

I say it's looking like a 7/4 split right now with three play-ins in the East still.

East:
1. Trinity
2. Norwich
3. Geneseo
4. Plattsburgh
5. Babson
6. Nichols
7. Salem State

West:
1. St. Norbert
2. Adrian
3. Stevens Point
4. St. Thomas

Play-in Round:
Salem State @ Norwich
Nichols @ Geneseo
Babson @ Plattsburgh

Quarterfinals:
St. Thomas @ St. Norbert
Stevens Point @ Adrian
Geneseo/Nichols winner @ Norwich/Salem State winner
Babson/Plattsburgh winner @ Trinity.

One important thing to note is Geneseo could play Adrian without having to fly, however, Geneseo WOULD have to fly to Lewiston for the Final Four if they make it there. So that in my opinion will hold off any possibility of "mixing" the regions to avoid flights for the FF.

My thoughts....probably will be completely wrong but it's tough to get a handle as always on what will happen in the smoke filled room.

Discuss.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
...

One important thing to note is Geneseo could play Adrian without having to fly, however, Geneseo WOULD have to fly to Lewiston for the Final Four if they make it there. So that in my opinion will hold off any possibility of "mixing" the regions to avoid flights for the FF.

My thoughts....probably will be completely wrong but it's tough to get a handle as always on what will happen in the smoke filled room.

Discuss.
Click to expand...

I see that (the need for both teams to have to fly to Lewiston) as an incentive for the NC$$ to guarantee they wont have to fly both.

Also of note: ... the committee noted the lack of flexibility to reward higher ranked teams in the bracketing process (i.e., avoid first-round competition and match-ups with other top-ranked teams before the finals site competition) and the general sense that one region, East or West, is disadvantaged in any given year.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
One important thing to note is Geneseo could play Adrian without having to fly, however, Geneseo WOULD have to fly to Lewiston for the Final Four if they make it there. So that in my opinion will hold off any possibility of "mixing" the regions to avoid flights for the FF.

My thoughts....probably will be completely wrong but it's tough to get a handle as always on what will happen in the smoke filled room.

Discuss.
Click to expand...

The Geneseo/Adrian option gives us these two options:

Quarterfinals
St. Thomas @ St. Norbert
Stevens Point @ Adrian

OR

Play-In
St. Thomas @ Stevens Point

Quarterfinals
St. Thomas/Stevens Point @ St. Norbert
Geneseo @ Adrian


Both would have 2 flights to Lewistown. The only difference would be the possibility of 2 teams from the West versus the guarantee of 2 teams from the West. I'm slightly inclined to go with the second scenario as it would allow the top 2 teams from the West and the top 3 teams from the East to get byes past the play-in round. The first would require that the 2E seed has a play-in game while the 4W does not. (Not that the committee has had a problem with that in the past)
 
PrezdeJohnson09 said:
Well it's Monday so here's another stab at how I think things are playing out currently.

Here's my guess at how the NCAA rankings will look tomorrow from the East.

1. Trinity
2. Norwich
3. Geneseo
4. Plattsburgh
5. Babson
6. Oswego
7. Amherst
8. Williams

Dropped out: Utica and UMass-Boston

I say it's looking like a 7/4 split right now with three play-ins in the East still.

East:
1. Trinity
2. Norwich
3. Geneseo
4. Plattsburgh
5. Babson
6. Nichols
7. Salem State

West:
1. St. Norbert
2. Adrian
3. Stevens Point
4. St. Thomas

Play-in Round:
Salem State @ Norwich
Nichols @ Geneseo
Babson @ Plattsburgh

Quarterfinals:
St. Thomas @ St. Norbert
Stevens Point @ Adrian
Geneseo/Nichols winner @ Norwich/Salem State winner
Babson/Plattsburgh winner @ Trinity.

One important thing to note is Geneseo could play Adrian without having to fly, however, Geneseo WOULD have to fly to Lewiston for the Final Four if they make it there. So that in my opinion will hold off any possibility of "mixing" the regions to avoid flights for the FF.

My thoughts....probably will be completely wrong but it's tough to get a handle as always on what will happen in the smoke filled room.

Discuss.
Click to expand...

I think Geneseo and Plattsburgh would both be ahead of Norwich, Plattsburgh winning H2H, Win%, COP and last 1/4 of the season. Geneseo winning Win%, COP, RNK, and last 1/4 of the season comparisons
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

OSU2010 said:
I think Geneseo and Plattsburgh would both be ahead of Norwich, Plattsburgh winning H2H, Win%, COP and last 1/4 of the season. Geneseo winning Win%, COP, RNK, and last 1/4 of the season comparisons
Click to expand...

Per Prez's ranking with Amherst/Oswego coming in (which I agree with) - Norwich would have the RNK over Geneseo (4-2 for NOR and 3-2 for GEN). It is still possible Geneseo is ahead of them, but it is going going to be close.
 
SB in the 'Seo said:
Per Prez's ranking with Amherst/Oswego coming in (which I agree with) - Norwich would have the RNK over Geneseo (4-2 for NOR and 3-2 for GEN). It is still possible Geneseo is ahead of them, but it is going going to be close.
Click to expand...

I believe that RNK is only in-region because the committees act independently of each other, so Geneseo would be 3-1, correct me if I'm wrong though.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

OSU2010 said:
I believe that RNK is only in-region because the committees act independently of each other, so Geneseo would be 3-1, correct me if I'm wrong though.
Click to expand...

I did a quick miscalculation and thought Geneseo and Oswego had split. Forgot Geneseo actually swept.

Geneseo would be 3-1 in the RNK w/ my prediction as would Norwich. NU gets another win if Amherst gets ranked.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

OSU2010 said:
I believe that RNK is only in-region because the committees act independently of each other, so Geneseo would be 3-1, correct me if I'm wrong though.
Click to expand...

I guess I am not quite clear on that either. I had thought they were abolishing that imaginary line, but maybe just for the overall WIN% and not the RNK.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

joecct said:
Locks?????
Trinity
SNC
Adrian
Click to expand...

Trinity kinda bothers me on this list. Who is their good win? Williams? Wentworth? Salve Regina? I'm not sure any team in the east should be considered a "lock". Who ya got Trinity v. Norwich on a neutral sheet of ice? Trinity v. Plattsburgh? Trinity v. Babson?

SNC & Adrian are complete locks. I would also think Stevens Point is close to being the Pool B lock. They lead River Falls by a wide margin in WIN, COP, and RNK. Guess H2H is the question there...
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

OSU2010 said:
I believe that RNK is only in-region because the committees act independently of each other, so Geneseo would be 3-1, correct me if I'm wrong though.
Click to expand...
"Results versus ranked Division III teams as established by the rankings at the time of selection. Conference postseason contests are included" No reference to in or out of Region.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
Well it's Monday so here's another stab at how I think things are playing out currently.

Here's my guess at how the NCAA rankings will look tomorrow from the East.

1. Trinity
2. Norwich
3. Geneseo
4. Plattsburgh
5. Babson
6. Oswego
7. Amherst
8. Williams

Dropped out: Utica and UMass-Boston

I say it's looking like a 7/4 split right now with three play-ins in the East still.

East:
1. Trinity
2. Norwich
3. Geneseo
4. Plattsburgh
5. Babson
6. Nichols
7. Salem State

West:
1. St. Norbert
2. Adrian
3. Stevens Point
4. St. Thomas

Play-in Round:
Salem State @ Norwich
Nichols @ Geneseo
Babson @ Plattsburgh

Quarterfinals:
St. Thomas @ St. Norbert
Stevens Point @ Adrian
Geneseo/Nichols winner @ Norwich/Salem State winner
Babson/Plattsburgh winner @ Trinity.

One important thing to note is Geneseo could play Adrian without having to fly, however, Geneseo WOULD have to fly to Lewiston for the Final Four if they make it there. So that in my opinion will hold off any possibility of "mixing" the regions to avoid flights for the FF.

My thoughts....probably will be completely wrong but it's tough to get a handle as always on what will happen in the smoke filled room.

Discuss.
Click to expand...

Prez, did Coach McShane help you with those brackets ?? Nice of you to rank Norwich over Plattsburgh AND Geneseo.....and then throw UMass Boston out of the top 8 (after winning their only game Saturday) !! Could that be because they beat Norwich once ? Can't think of any other reason. How does Amherst come in to the top 8? Didn't they lose to Middlebury Friday night before beating Williams yesterday. Oh, and Norwich has a win against them perhaps?

So, you're keeping Williams in the top 8 to tag Plattsburgh with an extra loss right ?? According to my calculations, Plattsburgh has a better winning percentage than Norwich, is that correct ? Are we not counting the Superior loss I(or Cardinal win against them) ?

I'm sure Coach McShane would love a home play-in vs. Salem State followed by ANOTHER home quarterfinal game vs. Geneseo instead of trying to beat Babson a 3rd time and THEN going to Trinity. Take off the maroon and gold glasses Prez !! If Norwich wins this weekend and Plattsburgh loses, then we could accept it. But I see no grounds to have Norwich #2 East at this point.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

I may have forgot to mention that small matter of a head-to-head loss vs. Plattsburgh as well. "Denial....it ain't a river in Egypt".
 
admiral0417 said:
Prez, did Coach McShane help you with those brackets ?? Nice of you to rank Norwich over Plattsburgh AND Geneseo.....and then throw UMass Boston out of the top 8 (after winning their only game Saturday) !! Could that be because they beat Norwich once ? Can't think of any other reason. How does Amherst come in to the top 8? Didn't they lose to Middlebury Friday night before beating Williams yesterday. Oh, and Norwich has a win against them perhaps?

So, you're keeping Williams in the top 8 to tag Plattsburgh with an extra loss right ?? According to my calculations, Plattsburgh has a better winning percentage than Norwich, is that correct ? Are we not counting the Superior loss I(or Cardinal win against them) ?

I'm sure Coach McShane would love a home play-in vs. Salem State followed by ANOTHER home quarterfinal game vs. Geneseo instead of trying to beat Babson a 3rd time and THEN going to Trinity. Take off the maroon and gold glasses Prez !! If Norwich wins this weekend and Plattsburgh loses, then we could accept it. But I see no grounds to have Norwich #2 East at this point.
Click to expand...

I could be completely wrong. We'll see what tomorrow's bracket results bring.

Oh by the way, look at the comparison between Norwich and Plattsburgh if you want to see a reason why NU could be ranked ahead of Plattsburgh. It might surprise you.

I personally don't think Williams should be ranked. They've been their usual dreadful self at the end of the season. However, I just have a feeling they'll still be in. I think Umass Boston should be in and Williams should be out if I was ranking them.
 
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