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NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

That has got to be it. No other reason. I forgot those 2 game series in the West. I wouldn't be holding my breath for a Pool B, but at least they are being kept around.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

peddler said:
NCAA East spreadsheet for 2014 is up at: http://web1.ncaa.org/champsel_new/exec/pdf/staticpdfrank
Hard to see how they have Norwich ahead of Platts. Given that NU's last 25% is now 4-2-1.
Or ahead of Geneseo for that matter.
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Am I being a homer thinking that Geneseo should be ranked higher?

I look at Plattsburgh as an easy team to compare them with, and the numbers make it hard to understand how they can be ranked two spots higher. The SOS is identical, Platty has the slightest advantage in Win % (.800 to .792), while Geneseo has a decent advantage in their record vs ranked (.600 to .417) and last 25% (1.000 to .667), as well as a 1-0 record in the secondary criteria (irrelevant to this discussion I'd assume). Not to mention they play in the same conference and Geneseo finished 1st in the regular season. I haven't looked any further into the criteria than the spreadsheet the NCAA released so I could be missing something important that goes into these rankings.

Babson and Norwich are tougher comparisons, and I can see how the case can be made that Norwich and Babson should be ranked higher because of their SOS's. Geneseo does hold the advantage in Record and Season Ending Record over both though, as well as the record vs RNK against Babson and tie with Norwich. I don't know how they value each category, but if you just took those 4 categories they list and compare how many each team wins, Geneseo would win 2-1 over Norwich and 3-1 over Babson. Geneseo would have a slight 2-1 advantage over Trinity in that type of comparison as well.

I'm not trying to say Geneseo should be number one, but looking at the numbers I feel like they deserve to be higher than number five. Does anyone have an explanation why they are ranked accurately at #5?
 
gknight said:
Am I being a homer thinking that Geneseo should be ranked higher?

I look at Plattsburgh as an easy team to compare them with, and the numbers make it hard to understand how they can be ranked two spots higher. The SOS is identical, Platty has the slightest advantage in Win % (.800 to .792), while Geneseo has a decent advantage in their record vs ranked (.600 to .417) and last 25% (1.000 to .667), as well as a 1-0 record in the secondary criteria (irrelevant to this discussion I'd assume). Not to mention they play in the same conference and Geneseo finished 1st in the regular season. I haven't looked any further into the criteria than the spreadsheet the NCAA released so I could be missing something important that goes into these rankings.

Babson and Norwich are tougher comparisons, and I can see how the case can be made that Norwich and Babson should be ranked higher because of their SOS's. Geneseo does hold the advantage in Record and Season Ending Record over both though, as well as the record vs RNK against Babson and tie with Norwich. I don't know how they value each category, but if you just took those 4 categories they list and compare how many each team wins, Geneseo would win 2-1 over Norwich and 3-1 over Babson. Geneseo would have a slight 2-1 advantage over Trinity in that type of comparison as well.

I'm not trying to say Geneseo should be number one, but looking at the numbers I feel like they deserve to be higher than number five. Does anyone have an explanation why they are ranked accurately at #5?
Click to expand...

no, I agree with you, I think Geneseo should be #2
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

OSU2010 said:
no, I agree with you, I think Geneseo should be #2
Click to expand...

Can somebody explain, is this all contingent on Oswego staying ranked, and how tenuous is Oswego's hold on being a ranked team? Is there a good chance Plattsburgh or even Geneseo could beat Oswego, cause them to become unranked, and basically doom Geneseo's pool C chances?
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

If Geneseo beats Oswego, it would be for the SUNY autobid. Therefore, yes, Geneseo beating Oswego would doom their Pool C chances.:D

On a more serious note, since the last ranking is super-secret, you'll likely never know what Oswego's final ranking (or non-ranking) is. As always, your best bet is to just win the SUNYAC title. You don't, and you've put yourself in whatever position you end up in. There are only 3 Pool C bids and you know Adrian/St. Norbert is getting one of them. God forbid someone else wins the NCHA and there goes two Pool C bids...
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

KnightsOfTheRound said:
Is there a good chance Plattsburgh or even Geneseo could beat Oswego, cause them to become unranked, and basically doom Geneseo's pool C chances?
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Well if Geneseo beats Oswego we don't have to worry about pool C :D

My thing is that the margins between teams #1 - #5 are very slim and the team that ended up being #1 was going to feel like they caught a bit of a break and the team ranked number #5 was going to feel like they got screwed. Honestly, I'd rather be further down and be playing with a bit of a chip on our shoulders' than be the "overrated" team.

As far as your initial question about Oswego being the determining factor for Geneseo getting in. It certainly helps to pick up the 2 RNK wins, but it wouldn't doom them if Oswego fell out to my eyes. Geneseo's main obstacle (if they do require the pool C) will be dodging "upsets" in the other conference tourneys.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

spwood said:
If Geneseo beats Oswego, it would be for the SUNY autobid. Therefore, yes, Geneseo beating Oswego would doom their Pool C chances.:D

On a more serious note, since the last ranking is super-secret, you'll likely never know what Oswego's final ranking (or non-ranking) is. As always, your best bet is to just win the SUNYAC title. You don't, and you've put yourself in whatever position you end up in. There are only 3 Pool C bids and you know Adrian/St. Norbert is getting one of them. God forbid someone else wins the NCHA and there goes two Pool C bids...
Click to expand...
With the ban on OPUN about to start I smell "Conspiracy Theory Thursday" coming up. :p
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

spwood said:
If Geneseo beats Oswego, it would be for the SUNY autobid. Therefore, yes, Geneseo beating Oswego would doom their Pool C chances.:D
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Good call :D

And I agree. Win and you're in. Everything else is just a distraction at this point.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

KnightsOfTheRound said:
Good call :D

And I agree. Win and you're in. Everything else is just a distraction at this point.
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It's a distraction to the players, but we fans have nothing else to do until they drop the pucks this weekend, so prognosticate away!:D
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

gknight said:
I'm not trying to say Geneseo should be number one, but looking at the numbers I feel like they deserve to be higher than number five. Does anyone have an explanation why they are ranked accurately at #5?
Click to expand...
1 - History
2 - Reputation
3 - Women's program success at PSU
4 - Committee composition
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

People you are looking to far into the forest. Genny needs to worry about Buff. State first and that is what the Genny fans need to be concerned with first and then the SUNYAC Championship. For no matter who Genny plays in the Championship they will most likely face a ranked team. The land of Oz and Cardinal Country do need to make it to the championship I think for a chance at the Pool C. Some reason the committee doesn't like to put 3 SUNYAC teams in but has no problem with the ECAC West.
Oswego '88
 
DIIIFan said:
People you are looking to far into the forest. Genny needs to worry about Buff. State first and that is what the Genny fans need to be concerned with first and then the SUNYAC Championship. For no matter who Genny plays in the Championship they will most likely face a ranked team. The land of Oz and Cardinal Country do need to make it to the championship I think for a chance at the Pool C. Some reason the committee doesn't like to put 3 SUNYAC teams in but has no problem with the ECAC West.
Oswego '88
Click to expand...

Agreed completely that Geneseo should be worried solely on winning on Saturday night against a talented Buff State team.

That said - this thread is "Tournament Prognostication". So every post to this point has been some sort of guess at situations that could arise on selection Sunday.

So while I agree completely with your premise from a hockey perspective that just winning the darn SUNYAC is the way to go ... The sole purpose of this thread is "looking too far down the forest."
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

SB in the 'Seo said:
Agreed completely that Geneseo should be worried solely on winning on Saturday night against a talented Buff State team.

That said - this thread is "Tournament Prognostication". So every post to this point has been some sort of guess at situations that could arise on selection Sunday.

So while I agree completely with your premise from a hockey perspective that just winning the darn SUNYAC is the way to go ... The sole purpose of this thread is "looking too far down the forest."
Click to expand...
let me tell ya my forest is covered in snow not unlike the room that will be covered in smoke, so who the hell knows.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Pool C Simplified - Adrian/St. Norbert loser gets the first one, SUNYAC, ECAC East get the other two......unless Trinity and/or St. Thomas lose in their tourney final. Good luck !!
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

SB in the 'Seo said:
Well if Geneseo beats Oswego we don't have to worry about pool C :D

My thing is that the margins between teams #1 - #5 are very slim and the team that ended up being #1 was going to feel like they caught a bit of a break and the team ranked number #5 was going to feel like they got screwed. Honestly, I'd rather be further down and be playing with a bit of a chip on our shoulders' than be the "overrated" team.

As far as your initial question about Oswego being the determining factor for Geneseo getting in. It certainly helps to pick up the 2 RNK wins, but it wouldn't doom them if Oswego fell out to my eyes. Geneseo's main obstacle (if they do require the pool C) will be dodging "upsets" in the other conference tourneys.
Click to expand...

Excuse me but don't you need to factor in another team( CARDINALS),
 
Birds said:
Excuse me but don't you need to factor in another team( CARDINALS),
Click to expand...

The initial question was about if Oswego being ranked was the determining factor on Geneseo getting a pool C. I was answering that question. His question did not reference the cardinals I assume because they are basically a lock to remain ranked. So I did not address them in the answer.

If you have a question about the Cards though I'd be happy to take a stab at it :)
 
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