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NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

I must be confused. I understand that we back out the 2-1-1 vs. St. Anselm & St. Michaels. What do we do with the Superior game? Does it count in this comparison ? It makes ALL the difference as it adds a loss to Norwich and a win to Plattsburgh thus swaying the Winning Percentage in Plattsburgh's favor. Plattsburgh owns the H2H and COP and those points won't change. Norwich owns the SOS. Currently, they own a slight advantage (3-2 vs. 2-2) in RNK. That could change to a tie Saturday night if Plattsburgh defeats Oswego. The last 25% would go to Norwich if both Norwich & Plattsburgh win their next game (5-0-1 vs. 5-1-0).

I guess what I'm saying is I believe Plattsburgh wins the Winning Percentage criteria and the KRACH does not. That is likely to be the determining factor. It is also possible that Norwich will not play another RNK game (if Mass Boston beats Babson). Plattsburgh will play at least one (Oswego) and perhaps two (Geneseo) so that RNK could also come in to play. So, does the Superior game(s) count or not?
 
admiral0417 said:
I must be confused. I understand that we back out the 2-1-1 vs. St. Anselm & St. Michaels. What do we do with the Superior game? Does it count in this comparison ? It makes ALL the difference as it adds a loss to Norwich and a win to Plattsburgh thus swaying the Winning Percentage in Plattsburgh's favor. Plattsburgh owns the H2H and COP and those points won't change. Norwich owns the SOS. Currently, they own a slight advantage (3-2 vs. 2-2) in RNK. That could change to a tie Saturday night if Plattsburgh defeats Oswego. The last 25% would go to Norwich if both Norwich & Plattsburgh win their next game (5-0-1 vs. 5-1-0).

I guess what I'm saying is I believe Plattsburgh wins the Winning Percentage criteria and the KRACH does not. That is likely to be the determining factor. It is also possible that Norwich will not play another RNK game (if Mass Boston beats Babson). Plattsburgh will play at least one (Oswego) and perhaps two (Geneseo) so that RNK could also come in to play. So, does the Superior game(s) count or not?
Click to expand...

Superior games do count for both teams.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Exactly. I don't understand why KRACH keeps ignoring it. Thus, Plattsburgh owns that all important Winning Percentage criteria point as well as the COP and H2H which would clearly give the Cardinals the edge in the comparison. Plattsburgh would have 3 points as of now. Norwich would win SOS and a slight edge in RNK and last 25. If the criteria ended as is, it would be 3-3, with Plattsburgh holding the heavy-weighted H2H & Winning Pct.

Hope it doesn't change. I'd prefer having Salem come visit us instead of Babson! It probably will since Coach McShane is clearly on the "campaign trail" !!
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

admiral0417 said:
Exactly. I don't understand why KRACH keeps ignoring it. Thus, Plattsburgh owns that all important Winning Percentage criteria point as well as the COP and H2H which would clearly give the Cardinals the edge in the comparison. Plattsburgh would have 3 points as of now. Norwich would win SOS and a slight edge in RNK and last 25. If the criteria ended as is, it would be 3-3, with Plattsburgh holding the heavy-weighted H2H & Winning Pct.

Hope it doesn't change. I'd prefer having Salem come visit us instead of Babson! It probably will since Coach McShane is clearly on the "campaign trail" !!
Click to expand...

Where did you find the weightings for this years new criteria? I need to review them.:rolleyes:
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

I just assumed that a H2H, Winning Pct and SOS would be viewed as most important. Like someone else pointed out, that last 25% can favor one team who plays some weak teams. The COP is alright and the RNK is much better now that there is only 8 teams ranked. But in my mind it's H2H, Winning Pct, SoS followed by COP, RNK & last 25%.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

admiral0417 said:
I just assumed that a H2H, Winning Pct and SOS would be viewed as most important. Like someone else pointed out, that last 25% can favor one team who plays some weak teams. The COP is alright and the RNK is much better now that there is only 8 teams ranked. But in my mind it's H2H, Winning Pct, SoS followed by COP, RNK & last 25%.
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Or, it could favor a team that wins their tournament but whose league does not have a pool A autobid. Gee, I wonder what leagues that might be?
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

Code: 
1.	Trinity (Conn.)		20-3-0		20-4-0
2.	Norwich		16-4-2		18-5-3
3.	Plattsburgh State		19-4-2		19-4-2
4.	Babson		16-4-1		20-4-2
5.	SUNY Geneseo		19-5-0		20-5-0
6.	Utica		15-6-4		15-6-4
7.	Massachusetts-Boston		13-5-3		17-5-4
8.	Oswego State		17-6-2		17-6-2
WEST
1.	St. Norbert		23-3-1		23-3-1
2.	Adrian		22-1-4		22-1-4
3.	Wisconsin-Stevens Point		19-4-2		19-4-2
4.	St. Thomas (Minn.)		19-4-2		19-4-2
5.	Wisconsin-Eau Claire		17-7-1		17-7-1
6.	Wisconsin-River Falls		15-7-3		15-7-3

New rankings are out. I didn't do too shabby on the East rankings. Correctly called Norwich moving up to No. 2. Messed up the 3-5 order with Babson, Plattsburgh & Geneseo, but had them all in that range. Correctly called Oswego moving in. I am quite surprised though that neither Amherst or Williams are in and Utica stayed.
 
PrezdeJohnson09 said:
Code: 
1.	Trinity (Conn.)		20-3-0		20-4-0
2.	Norwich		16-4-2		18-5-3
3.	Plattsburgh State		19-4-2		19-4-2
4.	Babson		16-4-1		20-4-2
5.	SUNY Geneseo		19-5-0		20-5-0
6.	Utica		15-6-4		15-6-4
7.	Massachusetts-Boston		13-5-3		17-5-4
8.	Oswego State		17-6-2		17-6-2
WEST
1.	St. Norbert		23-3-1		23-3-1
2.	Adrian		22-1-4		22-1-4
3.	Wisconsin-Stevens Point		19-4-2		19-4-2
4.	St. Thomas (Minn.)		19-4-2		19-4-2
5.	Wisconsin-Eau Claire		17-7-1		17-7-1
6.	Wisconsin-River Falls		15-7-3		15-7-3

New rankings are out. I didn't do too shabby on the East rankings. Correctly called Norwich moving up to No. 2. Messed up the 3-5 order with Babson, Plattsburgh & Geneseo, but had them all in that range. Correctly called Oswego moving in. I am quite surprised though that neither Amherst or Williams are in and Utica stayed.
Click to expand...
Well give yourself a ribbon.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
Code: 
1.	Trinity (Conn.)		20-3-0		20-4-0
2.	Norwich		16-4-2		18-5-3
3.	Plattsburgh State		19-4-2		19-4-2
4.	Babson		16-4-1		20-4-2
5.	SUNY Geneseo		19-5-0		20-5-0
6.	Utica		15-6-4		15-6-4
7.	Massachusetts-Boston		13-5-3		17-5-4
8.	Oswego State		17-6-2		17-6-2
WEST
1.	St. Norbert		23-3-1		23-3-1
2.	Adrian		22-1-4		22-1-4
3.	Wisconsin-Stevens Point		19-4-2		19-4-2
4.	St. Thomas (Minn.)		19-4-2		19-4-2
5.	Wisconsin-Eau Claire		17-7-1		17-7-1
6.	Wisconsin-River Falls		15-7-3		15-7-3

New rankings are out. I didn't do too shabby on the East rankings. Correctly called Norwich moving up to No. 2. Messed up the 3-5 order with Babson, Plattsburgh & Geneseo, but had them all in that range. Correctly called Oswego moving in. I am quite surprised though that neither Amherst or Williams are in and Utica stayed.
Click to expand...
Hey prez as we say in the firehouse "self praise is no praise" JK,but dont pull a muscle patting yourself on the back....surprised about the U?? their like the tefflon team.
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

My guess is theyre ranking utica to put them in contention for a pool b. Only ranked teams can get a b or c bid?
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

OSU2010 said:
My guess is theyre ranking utica to put them in contention for a pool b. Only ranked teams can get a b or c bid?
Click to expand...

Don't you all realize that you're forgetting to include the new secret, super high pct ranking criteria of "H2H vs. USA U-18 team" into your calculations? :rolleyes:
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

jcase said:
Don't you all realize that you're forgetting to include the new secret, super high pct ranking criteria of "H2H vs. USA U-18 team" into your calculations? :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Just a question from someone who doesn't follow the all the math that goes into this. After they pick who goes onto the NCAA tourny, the games are then taken over by the NCAA right? How does that work? Do they pay the rink where the 1st round games are played a rental fee and keep the ticket sales money? If so, could that explain why on earth UC is still in the mix? 4,000 seats that will sellout in a heartbeat may have something to do with it. Look, I'm a big UC fan and I can see no other reason than that as to why they would still be in the mix. With the talent on this team they should have walked into the bid, but the fact is they haven't earned it. I'd hate to think money has anything to do with the NCAA selection selection.
 
Bennycheck said:
Just a question from someone who doesn't follow the all the math that goes into this. After they pick who goes onto the NCAA tourny, the games are then taken over by the NCAA right? How does that work? Do they pay the rink where the 1st round games are played a rental fee and keep the ticket sales money? If so, could that explain why on earth UC is still in the mix? 4,000 seats that will sellout in a heartbeat may have something to do with it. Look, I'm a big UC fan and I can see no other reason than that as to why they would still be in the mix. With the talent on this team they should have walked into the bid, but the fact is they haven't earned it. I'd hate to think money has anything to do with the NCAA selection selection.
Click to expand...

Seating capacity has nothing to do with it. See Plattsburgh/Amherst. The mystery goes on.
 
Bennycheck said:
Just a question from someone who doesn't follow the all the math that goes into this. After they pick who goes onto the NCAA tourny, the games are then taken over by the NCAA right? How does that work? Do they pay the rink where the 1st round games are played a rental fee and keep the ticket sales money? If so, could that explain why on earth UC is still in the mix? 4,000 seats that will sellout in a heartbeat may have something to do with it. Look, I'm a big UC fan and I can see no other reason than that as to why they would still be in the mix. With the talent on this team they should have walked into the bid, but the fact is they haven't earned it. I'd hate to think money has anything to do with the NCAA selection selection.
Click to expand...

they're ranked so they can be in contention for a pool B bid
 
Re: NCAA Tournament Prognostications

The d3hockey.com bracketology as well as a few posts on their message board gives the best explanation for Utica that I have heard. So go there for the "original" but I'll lay out their basic premise.

Utica by the math has no shot at a pool C. There are 3 pool C bids. Out of Plattsburgh, Geneseo, Adrian, St. Norbert, Babson, and Norwich we know AT LEAST 3 of those teams will not win their conference and will be in the pool C contention and all would dominate Utica in a comparison. Also those 6 teams I listed can lose at a maximum 1 more game because they don't play series in their conference tourney. However, if UWSP gets swept this weekend by UWEC (they do play series) and Utica wins the ECAC West tournament they would at least be in the ballpark to make the pool B a little bit interesting. It still looks like UWSP would have it, but it is worth a discussion a least. So I think the east committee basically wants to have a dog in the pool B fight so they threw Utica in the rankings, but the odds are still heavily against the Pioneers.
 
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