Incredibly Dull Boring 2022 Pairwise and Tournament Possibilites Thread

[J.D.]

I would put Penn State winning B10 at a 1% chance ha

 

[Julius]

Does anyone know if the regionals will allow re-entry this year? If the games are 6 hours apart, that's a long time to have to be in the building.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Things are starting to clear up at the top, at least according to the CHN Pairwise Probability Matrix.

Michigan has clinched a #1 seed, with a 99% chance of it being #1 or #2 overall.
Minnesota State has clinched a #1 seed, with a 97% chance of it being #1 or #2 overall. Michigan is about a 60/40 favorite over Minnesota State for the top overall seed.

Denver can amazingly finish anywhere from #1 overall (0.2% chance) to #9 overall (0.1% chance). They are about an 80% chance favorite to get a #1 seed.
Minnesota is a 75% chance favorite to get a #1 seed, with about an equal chance at #3 or #4 overall.

North Dakota and Western are about 20% chance favorites to get a #1 seed. I have to imagine those 20% scenarios involve them winning the NCHC Title, while Minnesota falls in the B1G Tournament. However, at this stage, it appears likely they will both be #2 seeds.

Quinnipiac also looks destined for a #2 seed, with an approximate 72% chance. They have a very small (0.4% chance) of sneaking into a #1 seed.

The fight for the final #2 seed is likely between SCSU (60% chance) and Notre Dame (62% chance). I would guess that if SCSU makes the NCHC Frozen Faceoff (which would mean 2 victories over Duluth), they will get a #2 seed. The Huskies actually have a decent chance (~4.5%) of getting a #1 seed. I would imagine that would require them sweeping their way through the NCHC Tournament, with Minnesota losing in the semis.

Michigan Tech and Minnesota Duluth are likely #3 seeds (91% and 65% chances respectively), with the Bulldogs having an outside shot at a #2 seed (6.7% chance), and an even lesser chance at a #1 seed (0.5% chance). Of course, there is about a 4% chance UMD fails to make the NCAA Tournament.

Massachusetts is also likely (54% chance) to land at a #3 seed.

I have a feeling that there will be 3-4 "bubble busters" that will eat up the #4 seeds, although Ohio State (77% chance), Northeastern (64%), and Massachusetts Lowell (58% chance) are currently more likely to make the NCAAs than not.

Given all that, here is where things likely will end up, assuming no upset auto-bids:
#1 Seeds: Michigan, Minnesota State, Denver, Minnesota
#2 Seeds: Western Michigan, North Dakota, Quinnipiac, Notre Dame
#3 Seeds: St. Cloud State, Michigan Tech, Minnesota Duluth, Massachusetts
#4 Seeds: Ohio State, Northeastern, Massachusetts Lowell, Atlantic Champion

I would imagine something like this:

Albany:
1. Michigan v. 4. Atlantic Champion
2. Notre Dame v. 3. St. Cloud State

Loveland:
1. Denver v. 4. Ohio State
2. North Dakota v. 3. Michigan Tech

Worcester:
1. Minnesota v. 4. Massachusetts Lowell
2. Western Michigan v. 3. Massachusetts

Allentown:
1. Minnesota State v. 4. Northeastern
2. Quinnipiac v. 3. Minnesota Duluth

 

[J.D.]

Does anyone know if the regionals will allow re-entry this year? If the games are 6 hours apart, that's a long time to have to be in the building.

I noticed that too and am wondering if the broadcast info is correct.

 

[J.D.]

Things are starting to clear up at the top, at least according to the CHN Pairwise Probability Matrix.

Michigan has clinched a #1 seed, with a 99% chance of it being #1 or #2 overall.
Minnesota State has clinched a #1 seed, with a 97% chance of it being #1 or #2 overall. Michigan is about a 60/40 favorite over Minnesota State for the top overall seed.

Denver can amazingly finish anywhere from #1 overall (0.2% chance) to #9 overall (0.1% chance). They are about an 80% chance favorite to get a #1 seed.
Minnesota is a 75% chance favorite to get a #1 seed, with about an equal chance at #3 or #4 overall.

North Dakota and Western are about 20% chance favorites to get a #1 seed. I have to imagine those 20% scenarios involve them winning the NCHC Title, while Minnesota falls in the B1G Tournament. However, at this stage, it appears likely they will both be #2 seeds.

Quinnipiac also looks destined for a #2 seed, with an approximate 72% chance. They have a very small (0.4% chance) of sneaking into a #1 seed.

The fight for the final #2 seed is likely between SCSU (60% chance) and Notre Dame (62% chance). I would guess that if SCSU makes the NCHC Frozen Faceoff (which would mean 2 victories over Duluth), they will get a #2 seed. The Huskies actually have a decent chance (~4.5%) of getting a #1 seed. I would imagine that would require them sweeping their way through the NCHC Tournament, with Minnesota losing in the semis.

Michigan Tech and Minnesota Duluth are likely #3 seeds (91% and 65% chances respectively), with the Bulldogs having an outside shot at a #2 seed (6.7% chance), and an even lesser chance at a #1 seed (0.5% chance). Of course, there is about a 4% chance UMD fails to make the NCAA Tournament.

Massachusetts is also likely (54% chance) to land at a #3 seed.

I have a feeling that there will be 3-4 "bubble busters" that will eat up the #4 seeds, although Ohio State (77% chance), Northeastern (64%), and Massachusetts Lowell (58% chance) are currently more likely to make the NCAAs than not.

Given all that, here is where things likely will end up, assuming no upset auto-bids:
#1 Seeds: Michigan, Minnesota State, Denver, Minnesota
#2 Seeds: Western Michigan, North Dakota, Quinnipiac, Notre Dame
#3 Seeds: St. Cloud State, Michigan Tech, Minnesota Duluth, Massachusetts
#4 Seeds: Ohio State, Northeastern, Massachusetts Lowell, Atlantic Champion

I would imagine something like this:

Albany:
1. Michigan v. 4. Atlantic Champion
2. Notre Dame v. 3. St. Cloud State

Loveland:
1. Denver v. 4. Ohio State
2. North Dakota v. 3. Michigan Tech

Worcester:
1. Minnesota v. 4. Massachusetts Lowell
2. Western Michigan v. 3. Massachusetts

Allentown:
1. Minnesota State v. 4. Northeastern
2. Quinnipiac v. 3. Minnesota Duluth

Wonder if you could simply swap Albany and Allentown in this scenario.

 

[Numbers]

I somehow have to disagree with FS23 concerning Notre Dame. Notre Dame getting a #2 requires them hopping Qpac or SCSU. In order for them to do that, they would have to beat Michigan again. While I know they have had the Wolverines' number, 5 times in a year is really hard to do. I have my doubts about that happening.

Alternatively, WMU or UNDak could suffer a major hiccup this weekend, which would open the door for them, but I don't anticipate that either. I'm eager to see the Probability Matrix after tonight, actually.

 

[Numbers]

And.....OSU may have just thrown away their chance....

 

[Numbers]

Taking a look at tonight's PPM from the rival website, the middle 2 seed bands appear to be...
#2s: WMU, UNDak, QU and one of SCSU or UNDame
#3s: The other of SCSU and UNDame, MTU, UMD, UMass
Which yields games of: SCSU/NoDame, QU/UMD, and the 2 NCHC teams facing MTU and UMass. One would guess that either the QU game or the UMass game will be Worcester.

The 1 and 4 seeds bands would be:
#1s: Mankato, Michigan, Denver, Minnesota
#4s: NU, Lowell, AHA Champ, and a total wild card (OSU has the pole position, but no ability to help itself, and is the first out if the parlay happens).
Which yield games of Mank or Mich vs the AHA Champ and some upset or OSU.....and Den/Lowell, or Minn/NU. BU would also be a replacement for Lowell or NU in that list. Any of those 3 against Minn in Worcester is also a strong possibility.

Of course, if Clarkson wins the ECAC, they go to Albany against either Mankato or Michigan....

All of which is to say that while the field and some seeding even seems to be rounding into place a little, there is a lot of uncertainty, especially regarding where the eastern teams can be put to help attendance.

 

[John J. MacInnes]

Since the beginning of the 16 team field in 2003, here are the "last teams in" as at-large selections by year when the PairWise was the determining factor. There was no 2020 tournament, and 2021's field did not utilize the PairWise. No #16 has ever made the field as an at-large.

2003 #14 Minnesota State
2004 #13 Notre Dame
2005 #14 Colgate
2006 #14 Omaha
2007 #14 Miami
2008 #13 Notre Dame (finalist)
2009 #15 Ohio State
2010 #14 Vermont
2011 #15 RPI
2012 #15 Michigan State
2013 #15 Yale (champion)
2014 #14 North Dakota
2015 #15 Providence (champion)
2016 #14 Minnesota Duluth
2017 #15 Ohio State
2018 #12 Minnesota Duluth (champion)
2019 #15 Bowling Green

So it breaks down this way for the last team in:

#15 - 7 times
#14 - 7 times
#13 - 2 times
#12 - 1 time

That would suggest that Ohio State at #15 is more out than in historically, but they squeaked in as the #15 twice before so there's hope in Columbus. However, this season will have at least one guaranteed AQ at #16 and better than average odds that more AQ's will join them.

 

[ticapnews]

It appears that even with a loss to Boston College on Saturday night Northeastern will remain ahead of Ohio State by .0008 RPI. Other games will impact the RPI of both teams but the Huskies have the edge.

Of course, Northeastern can make it moot by beating the Eagles.

 

[Slap Shot]

OSU needs at least one HEA team ahead of them at 12-14 to lose while not having any HEA behind them win the HEA tournament.

Otherwise as it stands doesn't the winner of the Atlantic drop them out of consideration?

 

[ticapnews]

OSU needs at least one HEA team ahead of them at 12-14 to lose while not having any HEA behind them win the HEA tournament.

Otherwise as it stands doesn't the winner of the Atlantic drop them out of consideration?

Yes it does. Ohio State will be the first victim of the parlay (should it happen)

 

[Numbers]

OSU needs at least one HEA team ahead of them at 12-14 to lose while not having any HEA behind them win the HEA tournament.

Otherwise as it stands doesn't the winner of the Atlantic drop them out of consideration?

and

Yes it does. Ohio State will be the first victim of the parlay (should it happen)

I also think that OSU can be out simply by a combination of wins in the HEA without an upset winner. I haven't tried the future machine....but I think BU winning twice and losing the championship game would put them ahead of the Buckeyes.

Also, should BU win the HEA, and finish at about 13th or so.....is that parlay? I don't think so.
If Clarkson wins the ECAC and finishes in the 13/14 range......Not really the parlay.

To me, the parlay is only Conf Champs who END outside the top16, and thereby rob a spot from the usual Top16.

 

[ticapnews]

Just about as good as it gets for Allentown.
Swap OSU and NE to avoid conference matchup.
Swap the Michigan-NE game for Mankato-AIC.
Otherwise it is serpentine.
Clarkson is .0025 RPI behind OSU for the last spot.

 [TABLE="border: 0, cellspacing: 0"]
 	 		[TR]
 			[TD="width: 84"]Worcester (Holy Cross)[/TD]
 			[TD="width: 88"] [/TD]
 			[TD="width: 88"] [/TD]
 			[TD="width: 88"] [/TD]
 			[TD="width: 88"]Albany[/TD]
 			[TD="width: 88"] [/TD]
 			[TD="width: 88"] [/TD]
 			[TD="width: 88"]Allentown (Penn State)[/TD]
 			[TD="width: 88"] [/TD]
 			[TD="width: 88"] [/TD]
 			[TD="width: 88"]Loveland (Denver)[/TD]
 		[/TR]
 		[TR]
 			[TD]Minnesota[/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD]Mankato[/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD]Michigan[/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD]Denver[/TD]
 		[/TR]
 		[TR]
 			[TD]W Mich[/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD]Quinnipiac[/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD]Notre Dame[/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD]N Dakota[/TD]
 		[/TR]
 		[TR]
 			[TD]Mass[/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD]SCSU[/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD]Duluth[/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD]Mich Tech[/TD]
 		[/TR]
 		[TR]
 			[TD]Lowell[/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD]AIC[/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD]N Eastern[/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD] [/TD]
 			[TD]Ohio State[/TD]
 		[/TR]
 	 [/TABLE]

 

[Numbers]

Not much happened tonight. UMD over SCSU pulled those schools to the 3rd band, with Notre Dame moving up. There might be more slight movement tomorrow night. I'm hoping for a real upset or 2 in the NCHC, to make 3 game series. And, chaos in the HEA. Plus, Go Clarkson.

 

[Numbers]

7:00 EST update: BU and Merrimack are done for the year. Lowell is 'almost' safe. Connecticut is alive, with work to do...
Mich and NoDame scoreless after 1, MTU and BSU also scoreless in the 2nd. MTU game obviously has more impact on the PWR.

 

[ticapnews]

The first team in the parlay is....the University of Connecticut Huskies. UConn comes in ranked #21 in the pairwise.

 

[Patman]

The first team in the parlay is....the University of Connecticut Huskies. UConn comes in ranked #21 in the pairwise.

the winner of that game in this regard didn't make too much of a difference

 

[Numbers]

Second team in the parlay is......The Bemidji State Beavers.

 

[Numbers]

Third team in the parlay, and first from the ECAC is.....Clarkson Golden Knights.