Incredibly Dull Boring 2022 Pairwise and Tournament Possibilites Thread

[Numbers]

I think, personally, that KRACH methodology give too strong of odds for this time of year. Playoff hockey is a completely different animal than the regular season, and for reason, I would put OSU at something like 30%. But, I do like the PPM giving Lowell and NU great odds, since they require 2 of the parlay winning to knock them out, besides their own results.

 

[Numbers]

Neither Northeastern nor Lowell fall below Ohio State with a loss on Friday, so the top 14 are set. Ohio State is squarely on the bubble. Any upset in the ECAC or Benji or UConn win knocks them out. A second upset will knock out the #14 team and a third upset eliminates #13. The top 10 are all in. It would take a strange confluence of events for UMass to fall out. They control their own destiny. Tech is in a slightly more precarious position thanks to the loss today. It would still take upsets to knock them out. It looks like

16: Atlantic Hockey champion or Benji
15: Ohio State or an upset conference AQ
13-14: Some combination of Lowell, Northeastern, UMass and Tech with an outside chance of a third or fourth AQ upset.
11-12: UMass/Lowell winner/Tech/Northeastern
Top 10 are safe and just playing for seeding and conference hardware.

I'm sure I missed something...

I would agree with all of this, except that the PPM give MTU almost 100% odds of being in. Granted, they are using KRACH, which isn't quite as robust at getting all the possibilities as a straight 50% would...but, even at that, it is about a 1 in 1000 chance of them being out. And, as I tried to work through in a strange way before...consider...

UMass and Lowell play each other. If UMass wins, Lowell will end up below MTU. If Lowell wins, UMass 'might' end up that low. Now, assume UMass doesn't end up that low. What's happening with UConn and NU? If NU wins, the line moves to 13th, and 'at worst', either NU or Lowell has to lose in the HEA final, which makes the RPI fall back under MTU's. If UConn wins, NU can't get past MTU, so MTU falls at worst to 13th. But, now UConn has to win to keep up the threat of the parlay, and whoever they beat...that team's RPI drops again.

So, the margins are slim, but it's easy enough to see how the PPM has MTU is such a good spot.

 

[Patman]

I think, personally, that KRACH methodology give too strong of odds for this time of year. Playoff hockey is a completely different animal than the regular season, and for reason, I would put OSU at something like 30%. But, I do like the PPM giving Lowell and NU great odds, since they require 2 of the parlay winning to knock them out, besides their own results.

Maybe when there's large gaps in the ratings. I would think BSU's chances of winning is better than stated and I'd consider betting against KRACH odds if I were given them.. clearly KRACH and other methods have a hard time rating teams that rarely lose. The others not so much and lets face it, QU has played the entire ECAC, their rating is probably right.

 

[Patman]

the small chance of MTU being out is two tournament snipers (MTU finishing 14th in those cases) and lord knows what else.

 

[Numbers]

the small chance of MTU being out is two tournament snipers (MTU finishing 14th in those cases) and lord knows what else.

My first guess on the Predictor when it arises tonight is going to be.....Clarkson in from ECAC, BSU winning, and, in the HEA.....
Northeastern over Lowell in the final.

That appears to be the only possibility for getting 3 HEA teams above MTU.

The winner of the ECAC may need to be massaged perfectly as well, for the sake of HEA teams' RPI.


And, doing a little bracket work, I would say that the committee better hope MTU comes out as a #3, because otherwise, they are going to have to destroy the serpentine integrity of the bracket to keep the Eastern teams in the East.

 

[ticapnews]

And the scenarios begin...
My fave so far is Lowell upsetting UMass on Friday, losing to UConn Saturday, finishing 13 in pairwise and still missing the tournament. Especially since they miss out to #12 UMass by .0002 RPI

 

[ticapnews]

If all favorites win:

1 Minnesota State
2 Michigan
3 Denver
4 Minnesota
5 North Dakota
6 Western Michigan
7 Quinnipiac
8 Notre Dame
9 Minnesota-Duluth
10 St. Cloud State
11 Northeastern
12 Massachusetts
13 Michigan Tech
14 Mass.-Lowell
15 Ohio State
AQ AIC

 

[ticapnews]

Haven't been able to get Tech out. It appears they have secured a place in the tournament. UMass/Lowell/Northeastern are all hoping for 0 or 1 upset this weekend.
It looks like the pecking order will be UMass then Lowell then Northeastern. As posted earlier, even with a win against UMass in the semifinal, Lowell could still miss the tournament (and UMass make it) if UConn wins Hockey East and the parlay hits.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Closest I could get the last #1 seed:

• CCHA Championship: Bemidji State def. Minnesota State
• ECAC Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac def. Colgate
• ECAC Semifinal #2: Clarkson def. Harvard
• ECAC Championship: Quinnipiac def. Clarkson
• Hockey East Semifinal #1: Northeastern def. Connecticut
• Hockey East Semifinal #2: Mass.-Lowell def. Massachusetts
• Hockey East Championship: Northeastern def. Mass.-Lowell
• Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: American Int'l def. Mercyhurst
• Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force def. RIT
• Atlantic Hockey Championship: Air Force def. American Int'l
• Big Ten Championship: Michigan def. Minnesota
• NCHC Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth def. Denver
• NCHC Semifinal #2: North Dakota def. Western Michigan
• NCHC Championship: Minnesota-Duluth def. North Dakota

North Dakota beats out Minnesota for the last spot by .0001.

 

[Numbers]

Closest I could get the last #1 seed:

• CCHA Championship: Bemidji State def. Minnesota State
• ECAC Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac def. Colgate
• ECAC Semifinal #2: Clarkson def. Harvard
• ECAC Championship: Quinnipiac def. Clarkson
• Hockey East Semifinal #1: Northeastern def. Connecticut
• Hockey East Semifinal #2: Mass.-Lowell def. Massachusetts
• Hockey East Championship: Northeastern def. Mass.-Lowell
• Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: American Int'l def. Mercyhurst
• Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force def. RIT
• Atlantic Hockey Championship: Air Force def. American Int'l
• Big Ten Championship: Michigan def. Minnesota
• NCHC Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth def. Denver
• NCHC Semifinal #2: North Dakota def. Western Michigan
• NCHC Championship: Minnesota-Duluth def. North Dakota

North Dakota beats out Minnesota for the last spot by .0001.

Same business exactly, but with Mankato winning, and Minnesota beats UND by less than .0001

 

[Numbers]

• CCHA Championship: Bemidji State def. Minnesota State
• ECAC Championship: Colgate def. Harvard
• Hockey East Championship: Northeastern def. Mass.-Lowell
• Atlantic Hockey Semi-Final: Air Force def. Mercyhurst - what happens in the other semi, or the final, is immaterial
• Big Ten Championship: Minnesota def. Michigan
• NCHC Championship: Several possibilities exist here, depending on which AHA results you choose.

Fill in the Semis to make the final pairings be what they are:

And the result is: [TABLE="border: 0, cellpadding: 1, cellspacing: 0"]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]Michigan[/TD]
[TD]57[/TD]
[TD].5994[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]28-10-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]Denver[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD].5981[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]29-8-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]Minnesota State[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD].5954[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]34-6-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[TD].5845[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]25-11-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Western Michigan[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD].5795[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]25-11-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]North Dakota[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD].5720[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]24-13-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Quinnipiac[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD].5625[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]30-6-3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]Notre Dame[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[TD].5602[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]27-11-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]Minnesota-Duluth[/TD]
[TD]50[/TD]
[TD].5578[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]19-16-4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]St. Cloud State[/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD].5590[/TD]
[TD]9[/TD]
[TD]18-14-4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]Northeastern[/TD]
[TD]48[/TD]
[TD].5541[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]27-11-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]Mass.-Lowell[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[TD].5483[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]22-10-3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]Massachusetts[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD].5477[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]20-13-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]Michigan Tech[/TD]
[TD]45[/TD]
[TD].5476[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]21-12-3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]Ohio State[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD].5392[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]22-13-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]Clarkson[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD].5333[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]21-10-6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]Providence[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD].5295[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]22-14-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]Bemidji State[/TD]
[TD]34[/TD]
[TD].5097[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]20-19-0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]Colgate[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD].5038[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]20-17-4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]Air Force[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD].4716[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]17-16-3[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
In other words.....this is the way out for Mich Tech

 

[ticapnews]

If all favorites win I think the bracket will look like this: [TABLE="border: 0, cellspacing: 0"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 84"]Worcester[/TD]
[TD="width: 88"] [/TD]
[TD="width: 88"] [/TD]
[TD="width: 88"] [/TD]
[TD="width: 88"]Albany[/TD]
[TD="width: 88"] [/TD]
[TD="width: 88"] [/TD]
[TD="width: 88"]Allentown[/TD]
[TD="width: 88"] [/TD]
[TD="width: 88"] [/TD]
[TD="width: 88"]Loveland[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Michigan[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Mankato[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Denver[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Quinnipiac[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]N Dakota[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Notre Dame[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]W Mich[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]St Cloud[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Mass[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Duluth[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]N Eastern[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lowell[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Mich Tech[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]AIC[/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD] [/TD]
[TD]Ohio State[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Ugly for attendance everywhere. 2 NCHC teams in both the 2 and 3 seeds really hurts flexibility. Perfect serpentine except the Ohio State-Lowell switch to avoid the BTHC match. To save attendance the committee could throw integrity out the window and go with NoDak-Northeastern in Worcester, Quinnipiac-St Cloud in Albany and Western-UMass in Loveland. Not sure that helps Albany and Worcester enough to warrant all those changes. Nothing is going to save Allentown.

Fortunately this bracket will become outdated at about 6:30 Friday...

 

[Numbers]

A wise committee will say.....
We need to use the bands as the PWR gives them to us. That's fair. But beyond that, the PWR isn't precise enough for us to be handcuffed by the concept of a perfect serpentine bracket.

With what you've written, the NoDame-UMD game goes to Loveland.

The UND-UMass game goes to Worcester, QU-SCSU goes to Albany, with AIC and Mankato.

 

[J.D.]

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/r...=40&yatc[9][f]=20&yatc[10][f]=31#.YjDSsFMpCdM

This is what I think will happen and yielded me:

Allentown:

1. Michigan
2. Notre Dame
3. Minnesota-Duluth
4. AIC

Albany:

1. Minnesota State
2. Quinnipiac
3. St. Cloud State
4. Clarkson

Loveland:

1. Denver
2. Western Michigan
3. UMass-Lowell
4. Northeastern

Worcester:

1. Minnesota
2. North Dakota
3. UMass
4. Michigan Tech

If this were to happen you could flip NU and Michigan Tech. Or to reward UML for finishing ahead of NU/UMass...send the Western/UML game to Worcester and the UND/UMass game to Loveland.

 

[ticapnews]

What the committee is hoping for this weekend:
ECAC: Clarkson or Colgate. Quinnipiac is the 2 seed in Worcester but they'd love to slot a second ECAC team into that 4 spot in Albany. Harvard is a no go though. May have a brand name but doesn't do anything for attendance.

Anyone but Air Force in the AHA. All three are driving distance from Allentown. Perfect would be an Allentown of Michigan, Notre Dame and the AH champ.

To that end, Michigan in the BTHC giving the Wolverines #1 overall.

In the NCHC, North Dakota or Western Michigan. That elevates a second team to a 1 seed and gives more flexibility to moving teams in the 2 and 3 bands.

In Hockey East things are complicated because the pairwise are so tight, but the easiest way to get all three HEA teams into the east is for UMass to defeat Northeastern. That results in a 3 in Albany and 3+4 in Worcester.

That leaves us with
Loveland: Denver v Tech, Minn v Duluth
Allentown: Michigan v AH, Notre Dame v St Cloud
Albany: Mankato v ECAC, WMU/UND v UMass
Worcester: UND/WMU v Lowell, Quinnipiac v Northeastern

The committee absolutely does not want Air Force, UConn, Harvard or Bemidji. Busts the brackets and kills any hope for attendance. (UConn is an unknown commodity and the NCAA would rather not deal with unknowns)

 

[ticapnews]

The parlay will remain alive into the final day. UConn, Bemidji State and the Clarkson v Harvard winner.

The bubble is
13 Lowell
14 Northeastern
15 Ohio State

UMass is the 3 seed win or lose. Lowell can win Hockey East and also be a 3, or fall all the way out if the parlay hits. Even a win tonight would not be enough.

​​​​​​At the other end, the Denver loss opens the door to a 4-way tie for 4th with all four teams from the NCHC. And even with the conference crown, Duluth could still be 4th in that tie.

 

[ticapnews]

13 Lowell
14 Northeastern
15 Ohio State

If one of Bemidji State, UConn or Harvard win, Ohio State is eliminated.
If two win, Northeastern is also eliminated.
If the parlay hits, all three are eliminated.

UMass will be the 3 seed - it looks like Albany because of the glut of NCHC 2 seeds and St Cloud at 3.

Will be fascinating to see what the committee does if Lowell, Northeastern and Harvard are all 4 seeds.

 

[ticapnews]

It looks like Western Michigan has wrapped up a 1 seed. The Broncos cannot fall back below Denver. The only question is the overall 3 or 4. If Minnesota defeats Michigan, Western is 4 and will go to Loveland. If Michigan wins, WMU is the 3 and goes east. It doesn't matter whether they win or lose tomorrow. The NCAA committee would dearly love to see both WMU and Denver get 1 seeds. If Minnesota wins and takes the 1 seed, then there are three NCHC 2 seeds and St Cloud as a 3. That would mean Quinnipiac has to play SCSU.

 

[Liveatjrl]

It looks like Western Michigan has wrapped up a 1 seed. The Broncos cannot fall back below Denver. The only question is the overall 3 or 4. If Minnesota defeats Michigan, Western is 4 and will go to Loveland. If Michigan wins, WMU is the 3 and goes east. It doesn't matter whether they win or lose tomorrow. The NCAA committee would dearly love to see both WMU and Denver get 1 seeds. If Minnesota wins and takes the 1 seed, then there are three NCHC 2 seeds and St Cloud as a 3. That would mean Quinnipiac has to play SCSU.

As of tonight's results this is what I'm thinking assuming no upsets tomorrow night:

Worcester
Minnesota v Lowell
North Dakota v UMass

Albany
Michigan v Northeastern
Quinnipiac v St Cloud

Allentown
Mankato v AIC
Duluth v Notre Dame

Loveland
Western Michigan v Ohio State
Denver v Michigan Tech

Kind of tough to move matchups around at this point but I flipped WMU and Minnesota matchups to have 2 eastern teams in Worcester.

 

[ticapnews]

1 seeds: Michigan, Mankato, Western (Denver/Minnesota)
2 seeds: Duluth, Quinnipiac, North Dakota (UMn/DU)
3 seeds: St Cloud, Notre Dame, UMass, Michigan Tech
4 seeds: Lowell, Northeastern, AIC, UConn, Ohio State, Harvard, Air Force or Bemidji (In descending order of likelihood)