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Incredibly Dull Boring 2022 Pairwise and Tournament Possibilites Thread

ECAC....RPI beats Harvard in 2 OTs. So, they will play again tomorrow night for a place in the ECAC final 4 (and a card in the parlay). QU and STL are still going to at it. And, Colgate and Cornell also have a game 3 coming.

Meanwhile, Penn St and Minnesota tied at 2.
 
If Minnesota loses they will have another weekend off and just the one game in how many days going into NCAAs? Don't think many coaches would like that.
 
OKay.....trying to work this out.....

HEA....UMass plays Lowell. By the Top12 rule, the winner here is in.
Northeastern....if they lose, they very likely end at 14th. Right on the bubble.
Connecticut. Needs 2 wins.

For MTU, If Lowell loses, they are safe. If Lowell wins, and then wins, the line moves to 13th, so they are safe. If Lowell wins, and then Northeastern beats Lowell, the line moves to 13th, and they are safe. If Lowell wins, and then loses to UConn, the line stays at 12, but Lowell's PRI might fall back below MTU's (in fact, I'm not sure about this, but I would guess it to happen). So, MTU is very close to being safe.

ECAC: All clubs not named Quinnipiac need 2 wins. Even Clarkson can't make it going 1-1.

OSU: Needs Mankato to win, Quinnipiac to win, and Connecticut to lose at some point.
 
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And, by the way, anyone looking at the PPM on the other website right now (11:18 EST), it's not correct, as they have entered the data as if Penn State, rather than Minnesota, won.

11:19....in process of being fixed, I believe
 
For the top seeding, I would have to imagine it goes as follows:

#1/#2 overall: Between Michigan and Minnesota State. I believe the Wolverines get it with a win OR a Mavericks loss. There may be an ever so slim possibility that Denver can get to #1 or #2 if BOTH Michigan and Minnesota State lose AND Denver wins the NCHC Tournament.
#3 overall: Between Denver, Minnesota, Western Michigan, and North Dakota. DU is in the driver's seat. If they win the NCHC, they will do no worse than #3. Minnesota can get to #3 if they win the B1G and DU loses in the Semis. Western Michigan or North Dakota could get to #3 if DU loses in the Semis and Michigan beats Minnesota.
#4 overall: Likely between Minnesota, Western Michigan, and North Dakota. Minnesota clinches a 1 seed if they beat Michigan. If they lose, and the Broncos or the Hawks win the NCHC, the WMU/UND winner gets the last spot. There may be a slim possibility that Western could get the #4 by beating UND then losing to DU in the event the Gophers lose. I don't think the same applies to North Dakota. There is also the possibility that DU drops to a #2 seed if they lose in the Semis, Minnesota wins the B1G, AND the WMU/UMD winner wins the NCHC. That would be enjoyable. : )
 
Fighting Sioux 23 said:
For the top seeding, I would have to imagine it goes as follows:

#1/#2 overall: Between Michigan and Minnesota State. I believe the Wolverines get it with a win OR a Mavericks loss. There may be an ever so slim possibility that Denver can get to #1 or #2 if BOTH Michigan and Minnesota State lose AND Denver wins the NCHC Tournament.
#3 overall: Between Denver, Minnesota, Western Michigan, and North Dakota. DU is in the driver's seat. If they win the NCHC, they will do no worse than #3. Minnesota can get to #3 if they win the B1G and DU loses in the Semis. Western Michigan or North Dakota could get to #3 if DU loses in the Semis and Michigan beats Minnesota.
#4 overall: Likely between Minnesota, Western Michigan, and North Dakota. Minnesota clinches a 1 seed if they beat Michigan. If they lose, and the Broncos or the Hawks win the NCHC, the WMU/UND winner gets the last spot. There may be a slim possibility that Western could get the #4 by beating UND then losing to DU in the event the Gophers lose. I don't think the same applies to North Dakota. There is also the possibility that DU drops to a #2 seed if they lose in the Semis, Minnesota wins the B1G, AND the WMU/UMD winner wins the NCHC. That would be enjoyable. : )
Click to expand...

What happens if UMD beats Denver, Michigan beats Minnesota, and UND beats WMU and UMD? That's the closest I could make the last #1 seed.
 
Easier way to think of the bubble.....
There may be some strange exception, but the present top12 are almost 'safe.' Therefore, the bubble is Lowell, Northeastern, and OSU. And, the contenders are BSU, UConn, and anyone not named Quinn from ECAC. OSU would be first out, regardless of other results. The 2 HEA teams have situations too complex for simple analysis.
 
Numbers said:
What happens if UMD beats Denver, Michigan beats Minnesota, and UND beats WMU and UMD? That's the closest I could make the last #1 seed.
Click to expand...

North Dakota is only .0052 behind Minnesota in RPI. North Dakota would close that gap with two neutral site victories over WMU and UMD, coupled with a Minnesota home loss to Michigan.

The closest I can think of for the last spot is if Western (only .0027 behind Minnesota), beats UND and then loses to DU, while Minnesota falls to Michigan. I think the fact that Minnesota loses the home game would make the difference...but it would be awfully close.
 
Fighting Sioux 23 said:
North Dakota is only .0052 behind Minnesota in RPI. North Dakota would close that gap with two neutral site victories over WMU and UMD, coupled with a Minnesota home loss to Michigan.

The closest I can think of for the last spot is if Western (only .0027 behind Minnesota), beats UND and then loses to DU, while Minnesota falls to Michigan. I think the fact that Minnesota loses the home game would make the difference...but it would be awfully close.
Click to expand...

The Rodent playing at home is probably a bigger piece of this than I had thought about. In the last case you mentioned....WMU's own win % falls a small bit, and their other pieces of the RPI.....OppWin% goes up a little. OppOppWin% doesn't move a whole lot. So, basically that's about a wash....

Minnesota losing at home.....OppWin% goes up. Their one Win% goes down. OppOppWin% no change, much. But, WMU get's a QWB.....
 
Numbers said:
The Rodent playing at home is probably a bigger piece of this than I had thought about. In the last case you mentioned....WMU's own win % falls a small bit, and their other pieces of the RPI.....OppWin% goes up a little. OppOppWin% doesn't move a whole lot. So, basically that's about a wash....

Minnesota losing at home.....OppWin% goes up. Their one Win% goes down. OppOppWin% no change, much. But, WMU get's a QWB.....
Click to expand...

Yep. Playing at home gives the Gophers a nice advantage to get the W over Michigan (and clinch a #1 seed). But it is a double-edged sword. If Western beats UND, and Minnesota loses to the Wolverines, I believe the odds are VERY high that Western gets the #1 seed over Minnesota regardless of whether the Broncos win the NCHC. I don't believe the same applies for North Dakota (i.e. the Hawks beat WMU, but lose to say DU in the title, while the Gophers drop the B1G to UM). I believe the gap is just a shade too big between the UND and Minnesota.
 
Since I can't find a tool that allows adding more than one game, this is somewhat inexact, but the closest situation for the last #1 is:
UND over WMU
Mich over Minn
DU over UND.

And, I think Minn comes out with it, but it's really close.
 
tOSU's chances moved up. CHN uses KRACH for probability calculation so today must have gone better at preventing upstarts than what was aggregate before the games especially considering UML and NU both winning.

the external threat list. AHA CERTAIN (moves line to 15). BIG10: NONE HEA: UConn ECAC: Anything with a pulse other than QU. CCHA: Bemidji NCHC: None
 
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Numbers said:
Since I can't find a tool that allows adding more than one game, this is somewhat inexact, but the closest situation for the last #1 is:
UND over WMU
Mich over Minn
DU over UND.

And, I think Minn comes out with it, but it's really close.
Click to expand...

I think you are correct that Minnesota gets the last #1 seed in that scenario. I believe a slightly closer scenario though would be:
WMU over UND
UMD over DU
UM over UMN
UMD over WMU

We could be talking about the difference between Minnesota and Western in that scenario being in the .0001 type category. It would be VERY close.
 
Patman said:
tOSU's chances moved up. CHN uses KRACH for probability calculation so today must have gone better at preventing upstarts than what was aggregate before the games especially considering UML and NU both winning.
Click to expand...

Yep. OSU now at 40% to get in. That seems high given that at least 4 results have to go their way (Minnesota State beating Bemidji, Quinnipiac winning twice, and Connecticut losing once). But, I suppose MSU and QU are going to be heavy favorites in their games, and UCONN is going to be an underdog the rest of the way.
 
Neither Northeastern nor Lowell fall below Ohio State with a loss on Friday, so the top 14 are set. Ohio State is squarely on the bubble. Any upset in the ECAC or Benji or UConn win knocks them out. A second upset will knock out the #14 team and a third upset eliminates #13. The top 10 are all in. It would take a strange confluence of events for UMass to fall out. They control their own destiny. Tech is in a slightly more precarious position thanks to the loss today. It would still take upsets to knock them out. It looks like

16: Atlantic Hockey champion or Benji
15: Ohio State or an upset conference AQ
13-14: Some combination of Lowell, Northeastern, UMass and Tech with an outside chance of a third or fourth AQ upset.
11-12: UMass/Lowell winner/Tech/Northeastern
Top 10 are safe and just playing for seeding and conference hardware.

I'm sure I missed something...
 
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