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Incredibly Dull Boring 2022 Pairwise and Tournament Possibilites Thread

So after their inexplicable loss at Miami, Duluth has me intrigued.

Scenario - UMD gets swept by SCSU this weekend, and loses in the first round of the NCHC postseason. That would leave them with a losing record (1 game under .500 if they take the playoff series to 3 games, 2 games under if they get swept). Their RPI would likely still leave them in the top 12 and safe in the PairWise.

With all the hullaballoo about Wisconsin making it with a losing record in 2007-08, did something get enacted that prevents a sub-.500 team from making the field?
 
Ya I think that's still a rule. Is this where UMD finishes .500, makes it as last team in and wins the title?
 
I've never really understood why Loveland and Allentown host in the same year. I get that there are vagaries of who bids, etc. but both those locations draw from such a narrow bucket for local "attendance helpers."

There are generally always going to be 3+ schools in the RI/eastern MA/NH/ME bucket to anchor a Northeast regional.

There are generally always going to be 3+ schools in Upstate NY/CT/western MA bucket to anchor an East regional. And worst case, the travel throughout the "East" is not going to ever be too bad.

You put a regional in Colorado and you are really counting on only Denver, Colorado College and Air Force.

You put a regional in Pennsylvania and you are really counting on Penn State and some smaller schools and overlapping some with upstate NY.

It's fine to have one of those "stretch" locations, and probably even good to grow the game! But if you really care about asses in seats, having a year without a regional that is convenient to OH/MI/WI/MN/ND is going to be pretty dire. Seems like when Loveland or Allentown or a similar location gets a regional you would want to pair it with someone in the meat of the Upper Midwest.
 
Ideally you'd have a regional in MA, NY, MI and MN every year. Or a very close approximation of that. But that's an ideal world and as you mentioned, all depends on who bids.
 
As I was recently schooled on SiouxSports, the only way a <.500 team can make the tournament is to win their conference playoffs. Duluth could finish at .500 if they get swept this weekend, then win one game and lose two in the NCHC playoffs. They play SCSU this weekend and more than likely will play them in the first round of the playoffs (it looks very likely one will finish 4th and the other 5th). So while not likely, they could finish at .500 and make the tournament.
 
John J. MacInnes said:
OT wins count as wins, OT losses count as losses. Any shootout counts as a tie. If they get swept this week it could get really interesting.
Click to expand...

Interesting. So let's say Duluth loses twice in OT this week. That puts them at 16-16-4 (1-4 OT). They would need to win their First Round series to get in.

Does the NCHC still have the Third Place Game? If so, and presuming Duluth takes three games to win their series, they would need to win at least one game at the Frozen Faceoff.

Imagine if they lost the Semi and then lost the Third Place Game in OT. They would be 18-19-4 and miss the NCAAs. But in reality they would be 17-14-4, with a 1-5 3x3 OT record.

Of course, this is an extreme hypothetical (and assuming that the CHN app has their correct record). But it shows one of the (many?) flaws with counting 3x3 OT wins/losses the same as regulation wins/losses.
 
Very interesting concerning UMD's situation.

I think this year, in general, highlights an interesting aspect of the PWR system. I want to make a general comment about that, and I want to make a specific comment about this year, but first I want to say that the PWR system is much better than any subjective system.

Now for the comments: In general, the PWR places a huge amount of emphasis on 2 things: One: Your own record, and to a larger than normal extent, your OOC record. Two: Your conferences' OOC record. That's because if your conference has a good OOC record, then your entire conference schedule continues to reinforce the OppWin% and OppOppWin% aspects of your RPI, which are going to be better than other conferences.

That is really what gives rise to a year like this one. B10, CCHA and NCHC all did well OOC. Thus, those conferences have teams with high RPIs, and they dominate the potential NCAA field. I heard a talking head on a podcast on this website say that the problem is that the East didn't play the west enough, and that even losses against them would be good losses, and raise their RPI... Of course not. All that would have done is make it worse.

Now, to be honest, I think this is a little lop-sided. The vast majority of those OOC games happen early in the season, and there is little that can be done later to overcome it. So, I would happen to propose something like a scheduling system which demands that 1 weekend in January and 1 weekend in February be left open by all conferences for scheduling OOC games. That at least would shift some of the OOC games, which are so important in RPI, to later in the season.

And, as for this year....While, according to the math, UMD seems to deserve a place, I think that it is likely that the NCAAs would be a better tournament with a little more balance. So, if it happened that UMD were left out, I wouldn't mind it too much, since an eastern team would replace them.

Bulldog fans, of course, would hate it.
 
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Maybe if Duluth is .500 heading into the NCHC QFs but are still in the PWR picture they should just pull a Michigan and not play
 
AMC said:
I've never really understood why Loveland and Allentown host in the same year. I get that there are vagaries of who bids, etc. but both those locations draw from such a narrow bucket for local "attendance helpers."

There are generally always going to be 3+ schools in the RI/eastern MA/NH/ME bucket to anchor a Northeast regional.

There are generally always going to be 3+ schools in Upstate NY/CT/western MA bucket to anchor an East regional. And worst case, the travel throughout the "East" is not going to ever be too bad.

You put a regional in Colorado and you are really counting on only Denver, Colorado College and Air Force.

You put a regional in Pennsylvania and you are really counting on Penn State and some smaller schools and overlapping some with upstate NY.

It's fine to have one of those "stretch" locations, and probably even good to grow the game! But if you really care about asses in seats, having a year without a regional that is convenient to OH/MI/WI/MN/ND is going to be pretty dire. Seems like when Loveland or Allentown or a similar location gets a regional you would want to pair it with someone in the meat of the Upper Midwest.
Click to expand...

Tech Hockey Guide's Podcast had a very good discussion about this. From what I remember it comes down to the NCAA won't let a University host a regional. In MI and MN, the hockey capable arenas of suitable size are on college campuses. The next factor is the biding process which is all about who is willing to fill the NCAA coffers.
 
That's the major gap in regional hosting. Right now you would have 4 Minnesota schools/North Dakota and 3 Michigan schools/Notre Dame + Ohio State and I believe ALL of them will be flying to a regional. Is that correct? Regionals in MN and MI or at least one of those locations would have been good this year. I know it depends on who bids but that has to be frustrating for everyone involved in the game.

What school is driving attendance in Allentown? Only Penn State?
 
Best eastern option for Allentown is Cornell and even then, Ithaca is slightly closer to Albany.
 
J.D. said:
That's the major gap in regional hosting. Right now you would have 4 Minnesota schools/North Dakota and 3 Michigan schools/Notre Dame + Ohio State and I believe ALL of them will be flying to a regional. Is that correct? Regionals in MN and MI or at least one of those locations would have been good this year. I know it depends on who bids but that has to be frustrating for everyone involved in the game.

What school is driving attendance in Allentown? Only Penn State?
Click to expand...

As mentioned above, you cannot host on campus. Who is left in Minnesota to bid?

Well, Duluth at Amsoil. St Cloud at the Nat'l Hockey Center. Mankato at Verizon Center.

All of these would be more or less guaranteed sellouts. Why do these places not bid? Because you have to give all the money to the NCAA. It's that simple.

Same in Michigan or Wisconsin.... Who could reasonably bid? Well, Resch Center in Greeny Bay. Van Andel in Grand Rapids. These have hosted before. The fact that they are NOT hosting now, says a lot about the $$ aspect of hosting a regional.

To be honest, I have no idea why Loveland and Allentown bid.
 
Maybe we can get a year where only three locations bid or nobody bids. Force a change. Or isn't it coaches who are against the on campus format? I thought it was more coaches than NCAA. It's time to get over it. Given the geography of the teams in it this year and the regional locations, this is asinine really. What is the point at all of having neutral regional locations when attendance is guaranteed to be pitiful?
 
To put it another way, what other NCAA sport (football aside) makes it this difficult for fans of the higher ranked teams to see their team play?
 
The campus sites thing has been a competive balance issue. In other words, playing against the home team on campus is quite unfair if the host is a 3 or 4 seed. However, this is not really fair, because the campus sites which could host are all in the west: NoDak, Minn, Mich, Wisc would be the main ones. In the East, the teams are all close enough that on campus or not doesn't really matter. Providence has taken advantage of the regional being in their home town to win the region as a 4 seed twice in recent years.

Even in the west, NoDak can't host at Englestad, but they travel so well that hosting at Fargo Sheels or at Sanford in Sioux Falls is effectvely the same thing because no one else is close enough to give the NoDak fans any trouble.

In short, the 'no campus sites' rule hasn't really done what in was intended to do.
 
Just throwing it out there, does anyone know how many on campus/home rinks meet the other criteria needed for a regional? Or let's say the criteria was tweaked and going into any season you automatically know what rinks are at least capable of hosting. From there you gauge the interest of those schools to see if they are willing to keep arena open that weekend in case they earn a host spot. Doesn't college baseball do this? Hosts are picked based on merit and how you performed during the season. The regional format is the same in college baseball, 4 teams per regional.

So what is the main difference? That some hockey arenas are used for different events? Well, any school that agrees to keep the arena open would already know they have to work it out with whoever owns the arena. Maybe the school reimburses the owner of the building for that weekend if they don't host. SOMETHING like that. Is it simply impossible to try and get as close to a baseball format as possible?
 
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