Incredibly Dull Boring 2022 Pairwise and Tournament Possibilites Thread

[Fighting Sioux 23]

For looking at the matter again, it would perhaps be better to group as such:

1-3
4-5
6-7
8-13
14-20

In other words,
6-7: NoDak and Quinn
8-13: UMD, UMass, SCSU, MTU, OSU

Yes, I agree with that. At least tonight.

As for the last #1 seed, the more I think about it, I believe if Western or North Dakota win the NCHC Tournament, and Minnesota doesn't win the B1G, the NCHC Tourney winner would probably take down that last #1 seed. That being said, I may be prematurely discounting Quinnipiac's chances.

As for the comment about comparisons of interest going according to RPI...I was referring to comparisons in which both teams are currently top-20. And, my rational for that was that losing one comparison against RPI doesn't drop you in the list order. So, Prov over Den doesn't drop DU to 4th, for example.

I see. I was looking at teams that are currently top-25. ; )

What I am interested in though, is how the committee will handle Overtime Wins/Losses as it pertains to the Common Opponents portion of the Pairwise comparison. Right now, Cornell wins the comparison with North Dakota, thanks to their "1-0-0" record against Quinnipiac (the only common opponent between the programs) while UND went 1-1-0 against QU. But Cornell's victory was in OT. If QU beats Cornell in their rematch, will the Common Opponent portion tie with 1-1-0 records? Or, will UND win that component with a true 1-1-0 record, compared to Cornell's true 0.55-1.45-0 record (factoring in the anticipated weight for overtime wins). That will dictate who wins that comparison. Of course, as you noted in your post, it may be immaterial and not change the rankings.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

For discussion:
Who would draw fans to Albany?

Would WMU, Notre Dame, or Ohio State draw fans to Allentown?

How far will NoDak fans travel to watch the Fighting Hawks (it's hard to type that still)?

I would think Massachusetts might travel well to Albany. Perhaps BU as well if they sneak in. Maybe Union or RPI could get hot and win the ECAC Tournament? That would probably help the most.

North Dakota fans would travel best to Loveland...which won't need the help with DU being placed there. I don't think it would matter between Albany / Allentown / Worcester as far as UND is concerned. The fan willing to travel to Allentown to watch the Regionals will also travel to Albany or Worcester. Of all the western teams that could get placed at one of the three eastern regionals, UND would have, by far, the best fan presence.

 

[Numbers]

Yes, I agree with that. At least tonight.

As for the last #1 seed, the more I think about it, I believe if Western or North Dakota win the NCHC Tournament, and Minnesota doesn't win the B1G, the NCHC Tourney winner would probably take down that last #1 seed. That being said, I may be prematurely discounting Quinnipiac's chances.

Whether WMU or UND, as NCHC Champs, get the last #1 might depend a lot on the results of the 4 games left on the conference schedule. For example, if they go...Western 1 win in regulation, and UND 1 win in OT....this week......And, UND wins the tournament final, then the results of those 3 games wouldn't change much. Or, if Western has major hiccup against Miami, even winning the tournament may not help them much. They will get a benefit from their 1/4-finals series, but only if they sweep... Finally, UND can't afford a hiccup against Omaha either.

Like you said earlier, there is lots of hockey to be played, and what we are looking at right now needs ot be thought of from the perspective.....barring unusual winning streaks, or more than one bad result from the teams in question, this is what we would anticipate....

 

[Numbers]

I would think Massachusetts might travel well to Albany. Perhaps BU as well if they sneak in. Maybe Union or RPI could get hot and win the ECAC Tournament? That would probably help the most.
ing
North Dakota fans would travel best to Loveland...which won't need the help with DU being placed there. I don't think it would matter between Albany / Allentown / Worcester as far as UND is concerned. The fan willing to travel to Allentown to watch the Regionals will also travel to Albany or Worcester. Of all the western teams that could get placed at one of the three eastern regionals, UND would have, by far, the best fan presence.

I'm hoping for some eastern input about Albany. BU has been accused in past years of not traveling well. I'd appreciate Ticapnews if he checked in here.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Whether WMU or UND, as NCHC Champs, get the last #1 might depend a lot on the results of the 4 games left on the conference schedule. For example, if they go...Western 1 win in regulation, and UND 1 win in OT....this week......And, UND wins the tournament final, then the results of those 3 games wouldn't change much. Or, if Western has major hiccup against Miami, even winning the tournament may not help them much. They will get a benefit from their 1/4-finals series, but only if they sweep... Finally, UND can't afford a hiccup against Omaha either.

Like you said earlier, there is lots of hockey to be played, and what we are looking at right now needs ot be thought of from the perspective.....barring unusual winning streaks, or more than one bad result from the teams in question, this is what we would anticipate....

Of course. If UND loses their next 4, but then gets hot and wins the NCHC Tournament, it may not be enough to get that last spot.

That being said, if UND were to split with both Western and Omaha (or if Western were to split with both UND and Miami), and then win the NCHC Tournament, I think that probably is enough.

Also, splitting with Omaha on the road is essentially a net RPI wash.

 

[Numbers]

Of course. If UND loses their next 4, but then gets hot and wins the NCHC Tournament, it may not be enough to get that last spot.

That being said, if UND were to split with both Western and Omaha (or if Western were to split with both UND and Miami), and then win the NCHC Tournament, I think that probably is enough.

Also, splitting with Omaha on the road is essentially a net RPI wash.

Here's an interesting idea:
Compare: UND splits with WMU(home) and Omaha(away), defeats CC (let's say sweep, but what if it's 2/3?), and then wins single games against WMU and St Cloud (Denver having lost). so.....Wins: WMU (twice), CC(twice), Omaha, St Cloud. Losses: WMU(Home), Omaha(away).
Effectively, this is 2 wins against CC, and wins against WMU and St Cloud.

Minnesota sweeps Wisconsin, sweeps Penn State, and then splits with OSU and Michigan. Effectively, this is 2 wins over UW and 2 over PSU.

I will grant you that wins against WMU and SCSU are better than 2 wins against PSU. But, all else being equal, I don't think it's enough to make up the gap.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Here's an interesting idea:
Compare: UND splits with WMU(home) and Omaha(away), defeats CC (let's say sweep, but what if it's 2/3?), and then wins single games against WMU and St Cloud (Denver having lost). so.....Wins: WMU (twice), CC(twice), Omaha, St Cloud. Losses: WMU(Home), Omaha(away).
Effectively, this is 2 wins against CC, and wins against WMU and St Cloud.

Minnesota sweeps Wisconsin, sweeps Penn State, and then splits with OSU and Michigan. Effectively, this is 2 wins over UW and 2 over PSU.

I will grant you that wins against WMU and SCSU are better than 2 wins against PSU. But, all else being equal, I don't think it's enough to make up the gap.

It would be close. 2 home wins over Western are worth just less than .01 in RPI, so a home win and a neutral win would more than make up the current RPI gap.

Also, your conference tournament pairings don't really matchup with what seems likely. In your scenario, UND would likely square off against CC first round, and the Western in the semis. However, SCSU getting to the final? That is a bit of a stretch. I think they've won 1 game in regulation in their last 9. Of course, if they were to go on a crazy roll, win 4 or so of their next 5, knock off Duluth in the First round and then Denver in the semis...UND beating them in that scenario would mean a lot more than beating them currently.

Also, if Minnesota sweeps Wisconsin, there is a pretty good chance that they get the bye as the #1 seed and miss out on 2 extra games. But if they don't, do you really think Penn State is going to get swept by Michigan State this weekend? The Spartans haven't won a game this year. The Gophers would almost certainly play Michigan State, which provides a very limited upside.

In any event, in your scenario, it would be very close. In the more likely scenario for North Dakota (assuming splits in the regular season, then CC in the First Round, Western in the Semis, and DU in the Final; coupled with say Minnesota sweep over Wisconsin, then Ohio State in the Semis, before dropping the final to Michigan), I think UND would edge past Minnesota.

Of course, I think the even more likely scenario is Western splits with North Dakota, sweeps Miami, knocks out Omaha in the First Round, beats North Dakota in the Semis, and then takes out DU in the Final. In that scenario, they take the #1 seed. It probably doesn't even matter what Minnesota does in the B1G.

 

[Red Hockey]

I'm hoping for some eastern input about Albany. BU has been accused in past years of not traveling well. I'd appreciate Ticapnews if he checked in here.

Clarkson would draw well for sure. Decent alumni base in the Capital District and it's a trip under four hours from the far reaches of the North Country.

Cornell, if they managed to somehow get in, would draw well. Q should have decent attendance too as well as most teams based in Massachusetts. Albany is a very central location for a LOT of eastern teams

 

[Numbers]

It would be close. 2 home wins over Western are worth just less than .01 in RPI, so a home win and a neutral win would more than make up the current RPI gap.

Also, your conference tournament pairings don't really matchup with what seems likely. In your scenario, UND would likely square off against CC first round, and the Western in the semis. However, SCSU getting to the final? That is a bit of a stretch. I think they've won 1 game in regulation in their last 9. Of course, if they were to go on a crazy roll, win 4 or so of their next 5, knock off Duluth in the First round and then Denver in the semis...UND beating them in that scenario would mean a lot more than beating them currently.

Also, if Minnesota sweeps Wisconsin, there is a pretty good chance that they get the bye as the #1 seed and miss out on 2 extra games. But if they don't, do you really think Penn State is going to get swept by Michigan State this weekend? The Spartans haven't won a game this year. The Gophers would almost certainly play Michigan State, which provides a very limited upside.

In any event, in your scenario, it would be very close. In the more likely scenario for North Dakota (assuming splits in the regular season, then CC in the First Round, Western in the Semis, and DU in the Final; coupled with say Minnesota sweep over Wisconsin, then Ohio State in the Semis, before dropping the final to Michigan), I think UND would edge past Minnesota.

Of course, I think the even more likely scenario is Western splits with North Dakota, sweeps Miami, knocks out Omaha in the First Round, beats North Dakota in the Semis, and then takes out DU in the Final. In that scenario, they take the #1 seed. It probably doesn't even matter what Minnesota does in the B1G.

All of which can easily be filed in the category....."There is still too much input into a very complicated calculation to be able to say much for sure."

But, yes, there are ways for North Dakota to end up with the last #1.

And....the next question would of course be.....How much benefit? For we both know that Denver is going to Loveland. Any way....more in a week.

 

[ticapnews]

I'm hoping for some eastern input about Albany. BU has been accused in past years of not traveling well. I'd appreciate Ticapnews if he checked in here.

Not sure what I can add
The days of the huge traveling fan base in the East are done. Maine and New Hampshire could be counted upon to draw large crowds to the Garden and Eastern regionals, but neither has been relevant in a decade. BU and BC can't fill Worcester, much less Albany. Providence will show up in fairly good numbers if the regional is in Providence, otherwise no. UMass has got numbers, is centrally located and has solid enthusiasm around the program. I'm not sure about major transportation in and around Amherst though. Not that it matters - there's a freaking commuter rail connecting Boston to Worcester (and Providence for that matter) and hockey fans are oblivious to it. That also means Northeastern. And forget Harvard. My guess is that you would have to stick a couple of New York-based ECAC teams in Albany to make it work.

There are two elephants in the room though. The first being Covid-19. It has changed how fans show up to things. I know most people have decided they are done with it, but the virus hasn't decided it's done with us, so expect the dead to quietly pass 1 million soon. But that's not a college hockey issue.
What is a college hockey issue is that prices are still insane. I just checked the Albany website. Tickets are $76 for a session, but after the extortionate charges and fees, the price is $105.95 for the weekend. For one ticket. For a family of four the cost is $335 (although nothing on the website tells me what age is considered a "child" - 12? 10? I'm guessing it isn't 18.) And the price is the same whether I sit in the front row or the nosebleeds. Although I can't sit in the nosebleeds at Albany as I see they have closed the entire upper deck so you can only purchase tickets in the lower bowl. Seats in the front row remain available, and entire sections are still unsold. I'm going to guess that a good chunk of tickets not available to purchase online are reserved for the colleges that are assigned to Albany. Bands take up a lot of space.

I have many more thoughts on the entire regional process, but I have posted many of them in the past and doubt anyone wants to read them again. As for this season, hope Clarkson gets in and can be assigned to Albany. Maybe stick Quinnipiac in there too, but it isn't worth it to finagle the brackets to get them there. BU, PC and Northeastern have been discussed. Lowell won't travel in large enough numbers to matter in Albany (maybe Worcester) and Merrimack and UConn have little relevant tournament history but it is hard to imagine either of them moving the meter, whether in Worcester or Albany. Cornell could certainly help, but there's a lot of work to be done before they are even on the bubble, much less the right side of it.

 

[J.D.]

Clarkson would draw well for sure. Decent alumni base in the Capital District and it's a trip under four hours from the far reaches of the North Country.

Cornell, if they managed to somehow get in, would draw well. Q should have decent attendance too as well as most teams based in Massachusetts. Albany is a very central location for a LOT of eastern teams

Ya, the potential good thing here is you have two CT teams and two western MA teams in the mix right now. That *should* be good for both Albany and Worcester if it shakes out like it currently could. Just an example from the current PWR structure:

Worcester/Albany

1. Michigan
2. Minnesota-Duluth
3. UMass
4. AIC

Worcester/Albany

1. Minnesota State
2. Quinnipiac
3. St. Cloud State
4. UConn

Loveland

1. Denver
2. North Dakota
3. Notre Dame
4. BU

Allentown

1. Western Michigan
2. Minnesota
3. Michigan Tech
4. Ohio State

This didn't require any changes other than Michigan not going to Allentown (closest regional). That's a flight for them ain't it? The committee would probably be thrilled if this was the final bracket. I think UConn is a real wild card here. Big enough fan base that should bring a lot of fans to either Worcester/Albany in what would be their first ever NCAA appearance (I think?). Problem for UConn is they usually crumble down the stretch/HE playoffs every year.

No singular eastern team is filling any regional. You need a combo. But, big state schools like UMass and UConn making it in regionals in Worcester/Albany would definitely help.

 

[J.D.]

Glad we could get an updated death toll in this thread though! Some people can't resist.

 

[ticapnews]

Glad we could get an updated death toll in this thread though! Some people can't resist.

Sorry that reality sometimes intrudes on your fantasy world.

 

[J.D.]

Sorry that reality sometimes intrudes on your fantasy world.

What's the latest on the Omicron subvariant? Can't get enough subvariant talk.

 

[paulfb]

For discussion:
Who would draw fans to Albany?

Would WMU, Notre Dame, or Ohio State draw fans to Allentown?

How far will NoDak fans travel to watch the Fighting Hawks (it's hard to type that still)?

Notre Dame didn't even draw many fans to the Chicago Frozen Four, and the campus is only a 90-minute drive.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

All of which can easily be filed in the category....."There is still too much input into a very complicated calculation to be able to say much for sure."

But, yes, there are ways for North Dakota to end up with the last #1.

Agreed on there is still a lot of hockey left to be played, which is what I was saying from the beginning. However, given the current landscape, I'll stick by my point: if Western or North Dakota win the NCHC Tournament, and Minnesota doesn't win the B1G, the NCHC Tournament winner will likely take down the last #1 seed.

And....the next question would of course be.....How much benefit? For we both know that Denver is going to Loveland. Any way....more in a week.

Huge benefit. Avoiding Denver should be everyone's goal right now. They are the best team in the country. They are playing tremendous hockey at the moment. They are hosting a regional at altitude. The best way to avoid their regional is get a #1 seed.

 

[Numbers]

I suppose this is why they play the games…..

There are now 4 teams gunning for the last 2 #1 seeds in the NCAAs.

As of 10:20 CST Friday night, with only the ASU/UA game left to go final…

1-2: Michigan, Minn State
3-6: Denver, Minnesota, WMU, UND
7-13 (although somewhat arbitrary): Logjam #1: Quinn, UMD, NoDame, UMass, SCSU, MTU, OSU
14-20: Logjam #2: BU, Lowell, NE, UConn, CCT, Prov, Merri

#1s at present: Mich, MSUM, DU, UMinn
#2s: WMU, NoDak, Quinn, UMD
#3s: NoDame, UMass, SCSU, MTU
#4s: OSU, BU, UML, AHA Champ

Bracket?????:
Loveland: Denver, NoDak, MTU, OSU
Albany: MSUM, Quinn, SCSU, UML
Bridgeport: Minn, WMU, UMass, BU
Allentown: Mich, UMD, NoDame, AHA

Only non-serpentine parts of this bracket is a OSU/BU swap to avoid Minn playing OSU, and a SCSU/UMass swap to avoid a NoDak/SCSU game.

One curiosity is that, currently, Minnesota would get the 1/4-Final weekend in the B10 off. That’s the potential 2 win weekend, although 2 wins over Mich State right now are probably not worth a huge boost

 

[J.D.]

Loveland:

1. Denver (3)
2. Western Michigan (6)
3. UMass (10)
4. Ohio State (13)

Albany:

1. Minnesota State (1)
2. Quinnipiac (8)
3. St. Cloud State (9)
4. AIC (16)

Allentown:

1. Michigan (2)
2. Notre Dame (7)
3. Minnesota-Duluth (11)
4. UML (15)

Worcester

1. Minnesota (4)
2. North Dakota (5)
3. Michigan Tech (12)
4. Northeastern (14)

This is before trying to make changes for attendance. As the "worst" #1 seed, Minnesota plays Northeastern in Worcester because they can't play Ohio State.

 

[J.D.]

If it did play out like this, instead of punishing the best #2 seed by having them play UMass in Worcester and sending Tech to Loveland I wonder if those two matchups could be switched entirely to:

Loveland:

1. Denver
2. North Dakota
3. Michigan Tech
4. Ohio State

Worcester:

1. Minnesota
2. Western Michigan
3. UMass
4. Northeastern

 

[Numbers]

That last one looks really nice to me.