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Dump Term 2, 1.01: Sleep Now in the Fire

The initial revolution will be Donnie's MAGA brownshirts in the streets, targeting everyone they blame for what's happening. Hint: that won't be Donnie and the Republicans.

After that, who knows what happens next.
 
Handyman said:
Yeah but i think you underestimate three things:

1) People will cope as long as possible

2) The "revolution" will target anyone doing better than them (including middle class)

3) The results will likely be very very ugly and painful

Les Miserables lead to Napolean. The American Revolution lead to the Articles of Confederation. The Arab Spring lead to groups like the Muslim Brotherhood in control. For a while the cure is going to be worse than the disease. Hell even if Democracy prevails in the end it will take decades to undo the damage to the system, the economy and the worldview.
Click to expand...
Oh I’m not under any impression that what happens after they realize they’ve been duped will be pretty. Nor do I think that we’re heading for lefty paradise.

The best case, long term outcome to me is a breakup of the country without too much violence. And it won’t be like people think with every state being broken off whole, lines are going to be redrawn, places that have been connected forever will be broken apart, and there’ll be some surprising pairings.
 
rufus said:
The initial revolution will be Donnie's MAGA brownshirts in the streets, targeting everyone they blame for what's happening. Hint: that won't be Donnie and the Republicans.

After that, who knows what happens next.
Click to expand...
Dump isn’t going to use brownshirts, he’s going to use the military.

What part of It’s all part of the plan do y’all not understand?
 
beaverhockeyfan said:
It is going to be interesting to see what happens to farmers. Trump is proclaiming big things. I think if things stay on the same course, there are either going to be huge bailouts again, or farms will go belly up. If they go belly up, JD Vance and his AcreTrader company will be there to buy the land, pennies on the dollar.......

I know in our part of Minnesota, farmers voted for this. FAFO.....
Click to expand...

Yeah I thought his tweet about how great things will be for them growing all of the food for domestic consumption, implying that that will mean nothing but great times for them. Let's ignore that they currently focus on things that fetch the best prices in the overall worldwide market, and the focus and supply chain for that has been built over decades, and can't magically start cranking out other goods at the drop of a hat. Especially at the drop of a hat that is picked and re-dropped every other month will the games he appears to be playing with the tariffs. Even if you do re-configure things over time, there's some things we just can't grow.

Listen, if you wanted to have high tariffs to make sure you have complete self-sufficiency, you certainly could give it a try. There's lot of reasons why it would still be a bad idea, but at least it would be an idea. But then it's something you have to plan ahead of time to make sure you have all of the groundwork and coordination laid to produce everything at home. And you have to make the plan, spend several years if not more getting things laid out, and then execute and stick to the plan. Not dangle it around every few weeks like a fucking toy and expect every farm and factory to just change what they're doing at the drop of a hat.
 
iroy said:
I'm a long-time lurker on this board. Came to this discussion to vent. Apologies in advance.

I realize that the drastic measures being taken by the Trump administration affect me less than the more vulnerable among us but here's an example from my little corner of the world of the incompetence of the current decision-makers.

I work for a small aerospace company that designs and builds optical instruments that are deployed on satellites. Our primary source of funding is NASA. Over the past 30+ years we've been working with a small Canadian precision optics fabricator. The parts we buy from them are very specialized, one-off pieces of glass that no other company has been willing to bid on so we have no other options. Since these parts are expensive (approximately $100 - $200K) we have either have to cancel the project or go back to NASA for the $30-$50k additional cost imposed by the 25% Canadian tariffs. In the end you have the federal government (NASA) paying for a tariff on something that is ultimately purchased by the federal government. In between those funds pass through NASA, my company, the Canadian company, and back to the feds, incurring additional administrative costs at each step. Talk about efficiency!
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I work for a defense company. Just yesterday, we had an all hands meeting with our sector's president. Someone asked about the effect of the tariffs on us. His answer blew me away, because it was similar to your experience.

It turns out, defense companies working defense contracts can (not always) get the government to repay the defense company any tariffs they have to pay to build a product under a defense contract. I never knew that. And he said we would ask the government to reimburse us the extra tariffs cost.
 
Jimjamesak said:
Oh I’m not under any impression that what happens after they realize they’ve been duped will be pretty. Nor do I think that we’re heading for lefty paradise.

The best case, long term outcome to me is a breakup of the country without too much violence. And it won’t be like people think with every state being broken off whole, lines are going to be redrawn, places that have been connected forever will be broken apart, and there’ll be some surprising pairings.
Click to expand...
I would bet the odds of secession are pretty good. I don't see how the US holds together...

And yes states will be redrawn, some will merge...and wars within will definitely happen.

If I was to hazard a guess, California or Washington float the idea because of taxes and Donny sends in the military to pacify the revolt. He invokes the Insurrection Act, suspends habeus and away we go. The military will do what they are told up to and including killing civilians since they are now deemed terrorists.

The question becomes...does Canada get involved? How about Mexico? I would think if the Blue States "leave" the allies will help them.
 
Veterans don’t deserve jobs!!

WIRED (@wired.com)

NEW SCOOP: Some staffers at Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency are drawing robust taxpayer-funded salaries from the federal agencies they are slashing and burning, WIRED has learned. ⬇️ Here's how much they're making...
bsky.app bsky.app
 
Handyman said:
I would bet the odds of secession are pretty good. I don't see how the US holds together...

And yes states will be redrawn, some will merge...and wars within will definitely happen.

If I was to hazard a guess, California or Washington float the idea because of taxes and Donny sends in the military to pacify the revolt. He invokes the Insurrection Act, suspends habeus and away we go. The military will do what they are told up to and including killing civilians since they are now deemed terrorists.

The question becomes...does Canada get involved? How about Mexico? I would think if the Blue States "leave" the allies will help them.
Click to expand...
My theory crafting almost always starts with the pacific states, Washington, Oregon, California, as likely being the first to jump. The problem of course is that Washington and California have huge military bases in them plus huge swaths of ruby red Dump territory, Oregon is essentially two islands of Portland and Eugene surrounded by enemy territory. But I-5 and the corridor to the coast is essential to keep intact. Most likely California keeps the orcs at bay while Seattle and Portland become Sarajevo 2.0.

Now the Northeast telling the rest of the country to fuck off and daring Dump to do something is an interesting thought though.

I just don’t see anyone, especially Canada and Europe, getting involved in the actual fighting. It’s not worth it. Now, Russia and China “protecting assets” in Alaska? Sure.
 
Jimjamesak said:
My theory crafting almost always starts with the pacific states, Washington, Oregon, California, as likely being the first to jump. The problem of course is that Washington and California have huge military bases in them plus huge swaths of ruby red Dump territory, Oregon is essentially two islands of Portland and Eugene surrounded by enemy territory. But I-5 and the corridor to the coast is essential to keep intact. Most likely California keeps the orcs at bay while Seattle and Portland become Sarajevo 2.0.

Now the Northeast telling the rest of the country to fuck off and daring Dump to do something is an interesting thought though.

I just don’t see anyone, especially Canada and Europe, getting involved in the actual fighting. It’s not worth it. Now, Russia and China “protecting assets” in Alaska? Sure.
Click to expand...
I dont think Canada or Mexico will fight per say...but I think they will help especially if Trump militarizes the border. (which he will) No way BC is going to allow itself to be cut off from Washington State. The truth is though Trump is openly threatening them in his usual mob ways could be seen as a provocation especially if he starts a US Civil War. (because he won't stop at the border if he pacifies the Blue States)

I thought about the idea of the Northeast leaving I just don't know how Upstate NY would handle it.
 
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