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D-III Women's Bracketology

DedicatedFan said:
While I respect your opinion, it doesn't provide much in the way of an explanation. I get the fact there is only 1 spot up for grabs and that it goes to Middlebury if they lose today. I am questioning a second West pick if there is one.
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The criteria and the raw numbers provided by the NCAA (which don't include any game this week) had Adrian #1, River Falls #2 and Gustavus #3. There was a huge gap between #2 and #3. given that GAC didn't play this week and the gap to #4 Stevens Point was too big to be bridged, I don't think Stevens Point can move that far up. For that reason, and the guess that River Falls passed Adrian this week, I believe Adrian is the last team up for a spot from the west.
 
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spwood said:
The criteria and the raw numbers provided by the NCAA (which don't include any game this week) had Adrian #1, River Falls #2 and Gustavus #3. There was a huge gap between #2 and #3. given that GAC didn't play this week and the gap to #4 Stevens Point was too big to be bridged, I don't think Stevens Point can move that far up. For that reason, and the guess that River Falls passed Adrian this week, I believe Adrian is the last team up for a spot from the west.
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Thanks for your explanation.
 
Re: D-III Women's Bracketology

DedicatedFan said:
While I respect your opinion, it doesn't provide much in the way of an explanation. I get the fact there is only 1 spot up for grabs and that it goes to Middlebury if they lose today. I am questioning a second West pick if there is one.
Click to expand...

As spwood explained you have to look at what the rankings were going into this week.

In the west it was:
1. Adrian
2. River Falls
3. Gustavus
4. Stevens Point


If Stevens Point was below Gustavus last week, even with them getting knocked out, there is no way that Point would move ahead of Gustavus after losing to River Falls. Stevens Points only real chance was to beat River Falls yesterday...instead they laid a big egg.

The reason I assume that River Falls will jump Adrian is that when you look at the criteria

Last Week
Adrian had win % (.88 vs .87), Results against Ranked (5-1-2 vs 3-2-1) & Common Opponents (7-1 vs 5-2-1) River Falls had SOS (528 vs 513) and L25 (7-0 vs 4-1-1)

This Week
River Falls now has win% (.875 vs .845), common opponents is almost tied .77(adrian) vs .72 and depending on who the NCAA wants to rank, that could change greatly.

So that at least gives River Falls a 3-2 lead in the criteria with win%, sos and last 25...which I'd think are the big categories.


As far as the Adrian/Gustavus comparison, I don't think its even close. Adrian has win%, H2H, results vs ranked, and last 25. Gustavus has SOS and common opponents. Adrian wins 4-2 with the Head 2 Head win.


Trinity fared better against Adrian in the criteria than Amherst did...but Adrian was still beating them, however, it was close...so I don't think its a foregone conclusion that Adrian is in if Middlebury wins today
 
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Re: D-III Women's Bracketology

Trinity and Middlebury are tied at 2 and headed to OT...

Plattsburgh leads Elmira 1-0 at the start of the second...
 
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Re: D-III Women's Bracketology

so comparing Middlebury and Adrian

Adrian gets Win % and Ranked

Middlebury gets SOS by a lot and L25,


They both beat all of their common opponents which makes that a tie.


You'd have to assume Middlebury gets the nod over Adrian due to the SOS comparison.


Which my guess puts

St. Thomas at Plattsburgh/Elmira winner
Trinity @ Plattsburgh/Elmira Loser
Norwich @ Middlebury (or vice versa)
Lake Forest @ River Falls
 
Re: D-III Women's Bracketology

So how about the Middlebury/Adrian comparison? Adrian would seem to win WIN and RNK(handily). Middlebury wins SOS (handily) and L25. Maybe this comparison was closer than I thought...
 
Re: D-III Women's Bracketology

4-0 Platts. Pencil them both in.

So far we have LFC, UST, Trinity, Platty, Elmia, UWRF and Norwich.
 
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Re: D-III Women's Bracketology

obserbear said:
A thought on flights: a 4-4 split means 2 flights just the same as a 5-3 split
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Assuming that the west team that flies in the first round loses that game in case of the 5-3 split. If they win, then they got to fly them again :)
 
123kidd said:
Then you have UST, LFC and UWRF in the west with no one to play.
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In that case you'd get:
Adrian @ elmira
St Thomas @ Plattsburgh
Trinity @ Norwich
Lake Forest @ River Falls

Doesn't avoid flights but avoids interconference match ups.

Also gives you the best chance for minimal flights. If you take St Thomas to Adrian that would guarantee 3 flights. This way you probably still end up with 2. Or maybe St Thomas and Adrian win and you fly the other teams west for the final four :)
 
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gojackets said:
In that case you'd get:
Adrian @ elmira
St Thomas @ Plattsburgh
Trinity @ Norwich
Lake Forest @ River Falls

Doesn't avoid flights but avoids inter inference match ups.
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I have the feeling that no-fly will trump no inter-conference. I asked Matthew Webb, but he didn't really know what they would do either.
 
spwood said:
I have the feeling that no-fly will trump no inter-conference. I asked Matthew Webb, but he didn't really know what they would do either.
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As I just said, either way you probably end up with two flights. It's either 1 flight in the first round and 1 for the finals or two for the finals. I'd prefer two for the finals. 😜.

I still think it's all moot anyway and Adrian's staying home
 
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