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2024 Election Thread

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Mona Charon, who calls trump a "Putin-besotted, antisemite-praising, Constitution-terminating, multiple felony indictee" noted in an article in The Bulwark yesterday that a Des Moines Register poll in the days before the Iowa Caucus claims that at least 25% of republican caucus-goers claim they would not vote for trump in the general election. 11% claim they'd vote for Biden if trump was the nominee.

I don't buy it but I'd sure like to, because if those numbers are true, outside of states where trump won overwhelmingly in 2016 and 2020, he'd crash and burn and we could see an actual landslide. I still think this will come down to 9 or 10 states that anyone here can name, and hopefully Biden wins enough of them that we can plod on for a few more years waiting to see if enough Americans would prefer living in a country that actually does some good in the world, or if guns and God and beating down the gays is what 40% of still care about most.
 
Handyman said:
Well no data point on its own means much...but if you see a depression in vote totals in many of the early primaries then it is something worth noting as a trend and not a very good one if you are a GOP supporter.
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There was a statistic like 80% of the caucus attendees were over 45, and I don't think that means the Olds surged. (67% of voters nationally are over 45.)

I keep hoping there is a bottom, and we have reached it, and women will finally bury the GOP nationally. They have it within their power to end the Right attack on them. Gays, Muzzies, and Atheists don't have the numbers, but chicks do. They are half of all GOP voters.
 
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WeAreNDHockey said:
Mona Charon, who calls trump a "Putin-besotted, antisemite-praising, Constitution-terminating, multiple felony indictee" noted in an article in The Bulwark yesterday that a Des Moines Register poll in the days before the Iowa Caucus claims that at least 25% of republican caucus-goers claim they would not vote for trump in the general election. 11% claim they'd vote for Biden if trump was the nominee.
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But that's before the Echo Chamber closes ranks. Right now there are Republicans still running against the Emperor, but as he wraps up the nomination no mention will be permitted of his nakedness, and the full hate machine will be turned on Joe and Kammy.

By Election Day, every Republican will fall back into line.
 
Kepler said:
There was a statistic like 80% of the caucus attendees were over 45, and I don't think that means the Olds surged. (67% of voters nationally are over 45.)

I keep hoping there is a bottom, and we have reached it, and women will finally bury the GOP nationally. They have it within their power to end the Right attack on them. Gays, Muzzies, and Atheists don't have the numbers, but chicks do. They are half of all GOP voters.
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What if the gays, the Muzzies and the Atheists decide to join forces with the chicks?
 
rufus said:
What if the gays, the Muzzies and the Atheists decide to join forces with the chicks?
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power-rangers-megazord.gif
 
Kepler said:
There was a statistic like 80% of the caucus attendees were over 45, and I don't think that means the Olds surged. (67% of voters nationally are over 45.)
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Iowa is the oldest state in the country, and I guarantee the under 45 crowd that is still here leans blue, so that's not surprising.
 
unofan said:
Iowa is the oldest state in the country, and I guarantee the under 45 crowd that is still here leans blue, so that's not surprising.
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I saw a breakdown by age and TBH it made no difference. Same percentages to DeSantis, Haley, and Dump up and down the ladder.

Edit: nm, I get what you mean now. I'm an idiot.
 
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Kepler said:
But that's before the Echo Chamber closes ranks. Right now there are Republicans still running against the Emperor, but as he wraps up the nomination no mention will be permitted of his nakedness, and the full hate machine will be turned on Joe and Kammy.

By Election Day, every Republican will fall back into line.
Click to expand...

The thing is, the R's need 100% compliance of the party to stand a chance. Just winning the vote of "declared" R's isn't enough. Dumpy needs to make a push with "undecided" voters (aka moderates) to have the numbers nationally.

Current stats seem to suggest at about 10% of R's will NOT go for Trump if he is the candidate (mainly women with a few brain cells). That's a noticeable cut into an already thin margin of error on the R's side of the table.
 
RaceBoarder said:
The thing is, the R's need 100% compliance of the party to stand a chance. Just winning the vote of "declared" R's isn't enough. Dumpy needs to make a push with "undecided" voters (aka moderates) to have the numbers nationally.

Current stats seem to suggest at about 10% of R's will NOT go for Trump if he is the candidate (mainly women with a few brain cells). That's a noticeable cut into an already thin margin of error on the R's side of the table.
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I don't believe that 10% will hold. And we need a ton of margin because (1) the system is rigged against us with this ludicrous, whining "but then the cities will decide everything waaaaaaaaaaah" hayseed bullsh-t which cuts the throats of rural liberals the worst -- a) no, and b) if that's where everybody lives, then, good, their values are closer to yours than your neighbors' anyway, and (2) the GOP cheats through suppression and outright fraud, and has judges who will ram their scams down our throats.

We need to win by 7 points net just to have a chance of holding the Senate, or carrying the House. Until I see numbers like "Dump down by 20," consistently, it is a toss-up, with a badly timed Biden sneeze all that's between us and the end of democracy.

2016 taught the most important lesson of American history: one third of our citizens are not just imbeciles, they are what the Greeks would have called "barbarian"-- men outside the civitas, agents of pure malevolent selfishness. The Right and its voters do not care about democracy, or rights, or law. They want what they want and they will smash and grab to get it.

Dump is more dangerous now than 2016 and 2020, not less. He is more likely to win now than 2020.
 
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10% seems kinda normal to me. For example, I wouldn't be surprised at all if only 90% of registered Dems vote for Biden.

There are a lot of people out there whose viewpoints shift over time and they just don't get around to switching their registration, especially in open primary states where it doesn't matter.
 
This is among "Likely Republican Primary Voters". Those are the party's "ride or die" people.

Trump has played things to the extreme so much that he's burned anyone but the hardcore kool-aid junkies...

"You can't win a primary w/o Dump, but you can't win a general with him" is more true than ever nowadays.
 
Kepler said:
There was a statistic like 80% of the caucus attendees were over 45, and I don't think that means the Olds surged. (67% of voters nationally are over 45.)

I keep hoping there is a bottom, and we have reached it, and women will finally bury the GOP nationally. They have it within their power to end the Right attack on them. Gays, Muzzies, and Atheists don't have the numbers, but chicks do. They are half of all GOP voters.
Click to expand...

I am not an optimist by nature...and I am super apprehensive about this election but I am just not seeing it going sideways. Even if there was out and out theft I just don't see Dems screwing up their vote and Trump matching or beating his 81 million. Not in a post Dodds world. And you can tell his people think the same way which is why he all of a sudden was preaching unity for a second after crushing in Iowa.
 
Kepler said:
I don't believe that 10% will hold. And we need a ton of margin because (1) the system is rigged against us with this ludicrous, whining "but then the cities will decide everything waaaaaaaaaaah" hayseed bullsh-t which cuts the throats of rural liberals the worst -- a) no, and b) if that's where everybody lives, then, good, their values are closer to yours than your neighbors' anyway, and (2) the GOP cheats through suppression and outright fraud, and has judges who will ram their scams down our throats.

We need to win by 7 points net just to have a chance of holding the Senate, or carrying the House. Until I see numbers like "Dump down by 20," consistently, it is a toss-up, with a badly timed Biden sneeze all that's between us and the end of democracy.

2016 taught the most important lesson of American history: one third of our citizens are not just imbeciles, they are what the Greeks would have called "barbarian"-- men outside the civitas, agents of pure malevolent selfishness. The Right and its voters do not care about democracy, or rights, or law. They want what they want and they will smash and grab to get it.

Dump is more dangerous now than 2016 and 2020, not less. He is more likely to win now than 2020.
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It held in 2020. Trump upsets the applecart too much and that was before women revolted post Dodds. And the truth is they don't have the numbers even without the 10% which is why they lose the popular vote. The difference is now Dems are highly motivated and have maybe the best GOTV movement ever. I mean how many Dems are voting in off year elections all over the country?

I agree that the majority of the GOPers who say "I won't vote for that clown!!11!" will. Just like the vast majority of Dems who say "I won't vote for Biden!11!" still will. But there are GOPers who refuse, I personally know quite a few and my SO is related to even more. The reasons vary (he is a moron and not a Republican is often the reason especially amongst the SOs rich family) but they held in 2020, 2022 and will again.

And the thing is that, as you like to point out, the math is working against them now. The Boomers are aging out and quite a few of them took the boatride to Hades when COVID came around. They aren't adding new voters so they are capped probably around the 81 million number. Even with that, and what was likely a 90%+ buy in from the party he still lost the election. And unlike before he isn't playing with any sort of advantage he needs to flip a significant amount of states (again) to make this work. Even if say Arizona and Georgia go back Red he still needs to re-flip the Blue Wall of Pennsylvania, Michigan and WI. (or Nevada) Sure it could happen but that is not very likely. It is one thing to flip those states against a candidate they all hate (Hillary) in an even up election but to beat an incumbent is a whole different ball of wax.

Sorry but your logic is flawed, he is not more likely to win now than 2020 because it is harder to win as an insurgent than it is an incumbent and that is leaving out the other factors like Dodds, criminal prosecutions and the lack of a coherent agenda. I wont go Rover on the bit and guarantee it because no one goes broke betting against the common sense of Americans, but Trump has an uphill battle that will be exasperated by having zero competition in the Primaries. Biden on his worse day is better than all the clowns running against Trump. (this is why my SO is convinced Trump will refuse to debate Biden)
 
Yeah I am sure a lot of Jamaal's are showing up at MAGA rallies...what with the GOP's fellating Israel to high heaven and demonizing Muslims for the past 23 years!

I am sure that comment will get Politico to tell us once again how Mexican's are voting GOP even though all exit polling and vote counting still shows all non-Cubans still vote (overall) strongly for Dems.
 
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