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2024 Election Thread

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Handyman said:
Blaming the media!
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It's a bullshit argument, of course. But it was 100% bad form for the AP to call it while the majority of caucuses were still going on. It's not like they'll call NH at 12:05 am when those 2 tiny towns vote. They'll still wait until the polls close.

Most of not all caucuses are done in an hour. It wouldn't have killed them to wait another 30 minutes until 8 central.
 
Bad form for sure, and far be it from me to ever defend the media, but I can see why they would call it for Trump when it is ridiculously not close and it seemed to be matching polling which was basically burying DeSantis and Haley for days. Where Ron does have a bich is that finishing 2nd is very important for now cause if he can't beat Haley in Iowa he is in for a world of hurt coming up. He won't beat her in NH or South Carolina so he needs all of the momentum he can get out of Iowa. Even though he is in 2nd and appears to be holding well (I stopped looking for a couple hours but he has increased his lead on her since last I looked...of course Trump has basically matched it as well) the media killed any golf clapping he could do and moral victories by basically calling it for Trump right away and making the whole thing a joke. To most people watching this looks like a bloodbath and he doesn't really look very viable. (Nor does Haley but to me she never did) Ironically for once the media didn't try and rig it to seem closer than it was...

The other problem both of them have going forward is Vivek. If and when he drops there is no chance he doesn't endorse Trump and even if he does somehow buck expectations and endorse say Ronny...his voters aren't voting for Ronny. (or Haley for that matter) His voters are crackpot loonies who think Elmo is a genius and every conspiracy theory is true...they are Trump voters all the way.

Note: I am obviously saying this as a non-expert watching from afar. I have no idea what people in Iowa are saying...that is why I always look forward to what you have to say :^)
 
Handyman said:
Bad form for sure, and far be it from me to ever defend the media, but I can see why they would call it for Trump when it is ridiculously not close and it seemed to be matching polling which was basically burying DeSantis and Haley for days. Where Ron does have a bich is that finishing 2nd is very important for now cause if he can't beat Haley in Iowa he is in for a world of hurt coming up. He won't beat her in NH or South Carolina so he needs all of the momentum he can get out of Iowa. Even though he is in 2nd and appears to be holding well (I stopped looking for a couple hours but he has increased his lead on her since last I looked...of course Trump has basically matched it as well) the media killed any golf clapping he could do and moral victories by basically calling it for Trump right away and making the whole thing a joke. To most people watching this looks like a bloodbath and he doesn't really look very viable. (Nor does Haley but to me she never did) Ironically for once the media didn't try and rig it to seem closer than it was...

The other problem both of them have going forward is Vivek. If and when he drops there is no chance he doesn't endorse Trump and even if he does somehow buck expectations and endorse say Ronny...his voters aren't voting for Ronny. (or Haley for that matter) His voters are crackpot loonies who think Elmo is a genius and every conspiracy theory is true...they are Trump voters all the way.

Note: I am obviously saying this as a non-expert watching from afar. I have no idea what people in Iowa are saying...that is why I always look forward to what you have to say :^)
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He’s apparently dropped now
 
What I find interesting was the Des Moines Register polling on second choices.

Most of DeSantis's voters' second choice was Trump.
Most of Vivek's voter's second choice was Trump (or RFK Jr... ha!)
A majority of Haley's voter's second choice was not Trump.

There is just no pathway for anyone not named Trump. He could die and still win this nomination.
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
They were motivated. 80% of them said they agreed with his “immigrants poison the blood” comment. They’d all have been raising their arms in a salute to herr hitler but it was too cold
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That is what I mean. I realize that the majority of GOP voters are all in on Trump but even I am not cynical enough to believe that 80% of Iowa Republicans believe that. None of this really adds up...

Look at the Caucus numbers from 2016. Marco Rubio took 3rd with 43k votes. That is double Nikki Haley in the same position. Meanwhile Ted Cruz won with 51k while Trump won this time with 56K. Just to put a bow on it Trump took 2nd in 2016 with 45k pretty much doubling up Ronny in the same spot.

Top 3 vote getters in 2016: 139k votes
Top 3 vote getters in 2024: 100k votes (with some outstanding)

Total votes 2016: 187K
Total votes 2024: 109k

Now there are factors at play like the atrocious weather (seems God isn't happy with the GOP eh) and the fact that everyone knows Trump is going to win but Iowa tends to buck trends. In 2016 Cruz won, in 2012 Santorum won, in 2008 Huckabee won while McCain finished 4th. They don't usually have any problem going against the frontrunner. Trump didn't steal very many votes...so where was everyone?

I am not saying it means anything, but it is something to watch going forward. If the only people turning out en masse are Trumpers throughout the process then that could be a harbinger of bad news for the GOP come November. (Pritzker hinted at this last night as did some analysts I follow on social media) It means there is a significant amount of "Never Trumpers" amongst the voting block who would rather stay home than be part of the process. And he is not in a position to lose anyone when it comes to the general election. Even if we assume a bit of Dem holdout (and to be frank I dont see Dems staying home even the whiniest of the whiny when the architect of Dodds is on the ticket) Trump needs to increase his numbers from last time and he needs to do it in quite a few states. If this is not an outlier (and it probably is) then Trump is going to be the elections version of Gonzaga Basketball. Running up huge win totals against weak competition and folding at the end.
 
Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
I took the “80% believe the poison line” was referring to the republicans who voted for trump , not all r
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I saw generic Republican numbers that were similar. Might have been upper 60s though so lower. Either way still way too high. Everything about the Caucus seems wonky...
 
80% seems accurate to me, if we assume that 80% of R primary voters will go on to vote for Dump in the general. It's not like we're splitting hairs over healthcare policy. If a candidate intentionally uses blatant Nazi rhetoric, and you still vote for that candidate, congrats - you're a Nazi.
 
Beau did a video the other day talking about the R numbers and he had that 10% of R's said that they would NOT vote for Dump. And the conclusion was that if 10% of R's won't vote for Dump, how the hell are "moderates" or "in-play" voters gonna buy into his Nazi schtick?

I'm still willing to trust the math at this point and believe that Dump has to climb out of a massive hole somehow by November.
 
Trump obliterating Haley is kind of funny since he knows he already won.

(On Nikki Haley not mentioning slavery when asked about what caused the Civil War: “I’d say slavery is sort of the obvious answer as opposed to about three paragraphs of bullshit.")
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