Keen, who made abortion rights and property insurance key issues in the race, got between 65% to 70% of nonpartisan, or NPA, voters to make up for Republicans turning out in larger numbers than Democrats, said Matt Isbell, a Democratic elections analyst.
“What actually clinched the win for Democrats was this massive margin with NPAs and perhaps some Republican moderates as well,” Isbell said. “If anything, this should be concerning for the GOP because it indicates a voter anger that maybe they have not understood.”
The special election for the district in eastern Orange and Osceola counties was triggered when former Republican state Rep. Fred Hawkins resigned last year to become president of South Florida State College in Highlands County.
The district has an almost even collection of Democrats, Republicans and independents.
The election was considered a test of whether Florida Democrats will be more competitive in 2024 following their blowout loss to Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2022, which swept in a GOP supermajority in both houses of the Legislature.
“This proves that Democrats can win close races in the Sunshine State,” said state House Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell, D-Tampa, in a statement. “Florida is worth fighting for … Our work together has just begun.”
Keen canvassed with local Democratic stars U.S. Rep. Maxwell Frost and state Rep. Anna Eskamani, launched an ad targeting the GOP on abortion rights and mailed out flyers attacking Republicans on the property insurance crisis.
Booth, whose website stated that she would “protect our children from indoctrination” and crack down on illegal immigration, was backed by a state GOP campaign slamming Keen as a “radical,” including a website and television ads. Booth did not respond to repeated requests for interviews.
Mysterious text messages also were sent to Democrats from a supposed progressive group claiming Keen agreed with DeSantis on the controversial Parental Rights in Education Act, called ‘don’t say gay’ by its opponents. Keen has been a vocal critic of the law.
The group, Florida Committee for Progressive Values, listed Austin Hurst of Riverlake Boulevard in Bartow, Polk County, as its registered agent, chair and treasurer. According to state records, a Michael Austin Hurst is registered at that address as a Republican.
The Keen campaign compared the texts to the “ghost candidate” scandal of 2020, which involved three independent candidates who ran for competitive state Senate seats.
