Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

du78 · Feb 14, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless said:
If BC wins, the Pairwise remains unchanged. If Northeastern wins, NoDak and BC flip flop. If that happens, the NCAA might swap UMD and UNO in my brackets, but no other changes.

Code:

[B]Bridgeport Manchester St Louis Green Bay[/B] Yale BC North Dakota Merrimack Union UMD UNO Denver Miami UNH Michigan Notre Dame AHA Champ RPI Dartmouth Wisconsin

I assume you seeded Denver 2nd in Green Bay to keep Wisconsin in that bracket since DU and Merrimack are tied for 4th in PWR. Also since Bemidji now has an RPI of .5000 why aren't they a TUC?

mookie1995 · Feb 14, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

all academic now... congrats to the repeat national champions igles.

Priceless · Feb 14, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

du78 said:
I assume you seeded Denver 2nd in Green Bay to keep Wisconsin in that bracket since DU and Merrimack are tied for 4th in PWR. Also since Bemidji now has an RPI of .5000 why aren't they a TUC?

TBRW breaks ties using the winner of the comparison, SiouxSports breaks ties using RPI. The NCAA has never said how they break ties between two teams and only once has the RPI and comparisons conflicted; that was in 2005 and the teams had to be switched to avoid a conference meeting (UNH-BU) anyway. I have asked the NCAA for clarification of the tie-breaking procedure, which I expect them to answer around the time the Sun burns out. For now, I will break ties between two teams using the comparison.

FYI that comparison:

Code:

Denver U		                       Merrimack
18-7-5	.5674	1	RPI	0	.5588	19-5-4
12-7-3	.6136	0	TUC	1	.7273	7-2-2
1-2-1	.3750	0	COp	1	.7500	4-1-1
0-0	        0	H2H	0	0-0
                1	TOT	2

As for BSU, I show them with a .4999 RPI. The Northeastern/BC game goes down as a tie for Pairwise purposes because the GWG came after the first 5 minutes of OT. That is also enough to flip BC/UND so North Dakota is now #2.

Edit:
My bad. I found the rule.

Q: If a game in a tournament goes beyond five minutes of overtime, does the outcome of the game count for NCAA considerations?

A: Any game played to a conclusion, under any circumstances, counts as that outcome for NCAA purposes. While it is true that most regular season games end after five minutes of overtime, if one team must win to advance to a second round of a tournament, the outcome of the game is official and “counts” for both teams. A team losing 10 minutes into overtime has a loss, just as if it had lost in regulation time. If tournament organizers choose to end the game after five minutes of overtime and play a shootout, then the game is recorded as a tie for NCAA purposes.

I'm assuming that winning the Beanpot final counts as "advancing" so BC would in fact get the win. Bemidji would become a TUC with a .5000 RPI. I have just noticed that the What-If calculator at TBRW does not include teams that are .5000 so that will have to be fixed. Using the Additional TUC feature, I included BSU but that did not change anything. Teams now just have an extra comparison.

Code:

1	Yale (EC)
2	Boston Coll (HE)
3	North Dakota (WC)
4	Merrimack (HE)
5	Denver U (WC)
6	Minn-Duluth (WC)
7	Union (EC)
8	NE-Omaha (WC)
9	New Hampshire (HE)
10	Michigan (CC)
11	Notre Dame (CC)
12	Dartmouth (EC)
13	Miami (CC)
14	RPI (EC)
15	Wisconsin (WC)

TonyTheTiger20 · Feb 14, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless said:
The Northeastern/BC game goes down as a tie for Pairwise purposes because the GWG came after the first 5 minutes of OT. That is also enough to flip BC/UND so North Dakota is now #2.

Why does everyone keep saying this? This isn't true, and never was true.

The only reason our RPI dropped so much (though we're still in 2nd) is because BU sucks. Which I'm totally fine with.

Eaglefan06 · Feb 14, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless said:
TBRW breaks ties using the winner of the comparison, SiouxSports breaks ties using RPI. The NCAA has never said how they break ties between two teams and only once has the RPI and comparisons conflicted; that was in 2005 and the teams had to be switched to avoid a conference meeting (UNH-BU) anyway. I have asked the NCAA for clarification of the tie-breaking procedure, which I expect them to answer around the time the Sun burns out. For now, I will break ties between two teams using the comparison.

FYI that comparison:

Code:

Denver U Merrimack 18-7-5 .5674 1 RPI 0 .5588 19-5-4 12-7-3 .6136 0 TUC 1 .7273 7-2-2 1-2-1 .3750 0 COp 1 .7500 4-1-1 0-0 0 H2H 0 0-0 1 TOT 2

As for BSU, I show them with a .4999 RPI. The Northeastern/BC game goes down as a tie for Pairwise purposes because the GWG came after the first 5 minutes of OT. That is also enough to flip BC/UND so North Dakota is now #2.

Any idea why?

du78 · Feb 15, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Interesting that all of the PWR and RPI calculators have Bemidji's RPI at .5000 yet none of them have them as a TUC. I wonder if the software has been set up to calculate greater than .5000 rather than equal to or greater than .5000.

unofan · Feb 15, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless said:
The Northeastern/BC game goes down as a tie for Pairwise purposes because the GWG came after the first 5 minutes of OT.

No, it doesn't. Shootout losses count as ties. Overtime losses do not.

Tournaments can choose to either do unlimited overtimes or a shootout for tiebreaking purposes. If they choose the unlimited overtimes, it counts as a win/loss regardless of how long it takes to score a goal.

My guess is this confusion started when UNO screwed up its preseason tournament a few years back and planned to do a single 20 minute overtime followed by a shootout. so the NCAA called the whole thing off & ruled it a tie after the fact. But that was a one-off ruling.

Priceless · Feb 15, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

unofan said:
No, it doesn't. Shootout losses count as ties. Overtime losses do not.

Hence my edit at 1215 this morning

du78 said:
Interesting that all of the PWR and RPI calculators have Bemidji's RPI at .5000 yet none of them have them as a TUC. I wonder if the software has been set up to calculate greater than .5000 rather than equal to or greater than .5000.

I've sent an email to Joe to let him know the TBRW site isn't working. The nice thing about that site is that you can add teams as TUC before you run a scenario, so you can just add BSU as a TUC and it calculates anyway. You can also use the various criteria the Committee has used over the years (last 16, bonus points etc) to see how changing the criteria changes the field.

FlagDUDE08 · Feb 15, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

du78 said:
Interesting that all of the PWR and RPI calculators have Bemidji's RPI at .5000 yet none of them have them as a TUC. I wonder if the software has been set up to calculate greater than .5000 rather than equal to or greater than .5000.

It's probably because Bemidji's actual RPI, when not rounding to the nearest 10,000th, is actually below .5000.

du78 · Feb 15, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

FlagDUDE08 said:
It's probably because Bemidji's actual RPI, when not rounding to the nearest 10,000th, is actually below .5000.

Yep go out 1 more decimal place and its .49995, close but no cigar. Talk about just falling off of the TUC cliff.

Priceless · Feb 15, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

FlagDUDE08 said:
It's probably because Bemidji's actual RPI, when not rounding to the nearest 10,000th, is actually below .5000.

.4999637 Now, is that considered close enough for the Committee, or do they not round up?

FlagDUDE08 · Feb 15, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless said:
.4999637 Now, is that considered close enough for the Committee, or do they not round up?

Personally I would truncate, but that's just me.

ScoobyFanClub · Feb 17, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless said:
TBRW breaks ties using the winner of the comparison, SiouxSports breaks ties using RPI. The NCAA has never said how they break ties between two teams and only once has the RPI and comparisons conflicted; that was in 2005 and the teams had to be switched to avoid a conference meeting (UNH-BU) anyway. I have asked the NCAA for clarification of the tie-breaking procedure, which I expect them to answer around the time the Sun burns out. For now, I will break ties between two teams using the comparison.

It's happened more than once, and it's been written about extensively elsewhere. It's clearly broken with RPI. Not sure why this is even disputed anymore.

Priceless · Feb 17, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

ScoobyFanClub said:
It's happened more than once, and it's been written about extensively elsewhere. It's clearly broken with RPI. Not sure why this is even disputed anymore.

It has? When? Where has it been written about? I emailed Jayson Moy to ask him because last year he broke ties using comparisons, not RPI. In that bracketology, Maine and CC were tied for 7th. Maine won the comparison but CC had an RPI .0101 higher than Maine. He broke the tie in Maine's favor. This year he breaks all ties using RPI.

I have looked at the final PWR of every season since 2003 and I have found only one instance of head to head ties where the RPI and comparison conflicted. If it's been addressed by the NCAA I'd love to see it, because they have stonewalled me when I've asked. It seems to me that if they had already ruled on it they could just cut and paste the answer.

ScoobyFanClub · Feb 17, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless said:
It has? When? Where has it been written about?

I use this URL to find Pairwise articles at CHN - which can be helpful when trying to remember all this stuff

http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/archives.php?kw=pairwise

So - going back through - I believe 2007, there was a conflict:
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2007/03/18_final2007.php

There was a 4-way tie in comparison wins at No. 11 last year ... and the tiebreaker was discussed then too:
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2010/03/20_bracket.php

Priceless · Feb 18, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

ScoobyFanClub said:
I use this URL to find Pairwise articles at CHN - which can be helpful when trying to remember all this stuff
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/archives.php?kw=pairwise

So - going back through - I believe 2007, there was a conflict:
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2007/03/18_final2007.php

There was a 4-way tie in comparison wins at No. 11 last year ... and the tiebreaker was discussed then too:
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2010/03/20_bracket.php

When three or more teams tie they use RPI to break the tie because each team could win a comparison against another. However, when there is a tie between two teams then only one can win the comparison. In that scenario the tie-breaking procedure hasn't been explained. There is still a question whether head to head ties are broken via comparisons or RPI. That situation has only happened once and it was resolved by switching seeds to avoid an intra-conference game between UNH and BU. In the most recent discussion on CHN, Adam lists Merrimack fourth. As I linked below, Jayson used comparisons to break ties last year:

We break ties in the PWR by looking at the individual comparisons among the tied teams, and add in any current league leaders that are not currently in the top 16. The only team that is not is RIT.

So the question remains: when two teams are tied and there is a disagreement between RPI and the comparison how is the tie broken? I doubt the NCAA is going to tell us unless it has to.

ScoobyFanClub · Feb 18, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless said:
When three or more teams tie they use RPI to break the tie because each team could win a comparison against another. However, when there is a tie between two teams then only one can win the comparison. In that scenario the tie-breaking procedure hasn't been explained.

Yes, but in 2007, I believe that in the 3-way scenario, that one team won both comparisons against the other, but was ultimately rated below the others because of RPI.... and in the discussion that year, many including USCHO had it wrong, while CHN had it right -- so there must be something to it. You have to conclude, I think, that a two-way tie would be the same way. The committee may never come right out and say so - but then again, it doesn't have to. My guess is, they don't even have a clue as to what we're talking about. They just take what's given to them.

Priceless · Feb 19, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Code:

1	Yale (EC)
2	North Dakota (WC)
3	Boston Coll (HE)
4	Merrimack (HE)
5	Denver U (WC)
6	Union (EC)
7	NE-Omaha (WC)
8	Minn-Duluth (WC)
9	Michigan (CC)
10	Miami (CC)
11	Notre Dame (CC)
12	New Hampshire (HE)
13	RPI (EC)
14	Dartmouth (EC)
15	Wisconsin (WC)

Code:

[B]Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay[/B]
Yale		BC		North Dakota	Merrimack
UNO		Union		UMD		Denver
Miami		UNH		Michigan	Notre Dame
AHA Champ	Dartmouth	RPI	        Wisconsin

mcfarljd · Feb 19, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Yale UNO and AH champ. Ummm, dibs!

Priceless said:

Code:

1	Yale (EC)
2	North Dakota (WC)
3	Boston Coll (HE)
4	Merrimack (HE)
5	Denver U (WC)
6	Union (EC)
7	NE-Omaha (WC)
8	Minn-Duluth (WC)
9	Michigan (CC)
10	Miami (CC)
11	Notre Dame (CC)
12	New Hampshire (HE)
13	RPI (EC)
14	Dartmouth (EC)
15	Wisconsin (WC)

Code:

[B]Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay[/B]
Yale		BC		North Dakota	Merrimack
UNO		Union		UMD		Denver
Miami		UNH		Michigan	Notre Dame
AHA Champ	Dartmouth	RPI	        Wisconsin

Priceless · Feb 20, 2011

Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

MSU leads 5-2 late and UNO leads 3-1. Assuming those scores hold...

Code:

1	Yale (EC)
2	North Dakota (WC)
3	Boston Coll (HE)
4	Merrimack (HE)
5	Denver U (WC)
6	Michigan (CC)
7	Minn-Duluth (WC)
8	Union (EC)
9	NE-Omaha (WC)
10	Notre Dame (CC)
11	New Hampshire (HE)
12	Miami (CC)
13	RPI (EC)
14	Wisconsin (WC)
15	Western Mich (CC)

Code:

[B]Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay[/B]
Yale		BC		North Dakota	Merrimack
Union		Michigan	UMD		Denver
UNO		UNH		Notre Dame	Miami
AHA Champ	RPI		W Mich		Wisconsin

Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

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