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Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
  • Start date Start date
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

I would put Denver/Miami in St. Louis and Minnesota-Duluth/Notre Dame in Green Bay. Agree on everything else.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The TUC line

Code: 
Bemidji State		0.5035
Ohio State		0.5029
AK-Anchorage 		0.5029
Northern Mich		0.5004
--
Quinnipiac		0.4981
Mich State		0.4946
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Today's games have no impact on the pairwise.

Some preliminary calculations show Yale and North Dakota have clinched NCAA bids. In fact, they finish no worse than 8th in worst-case scenarios I've run. I have managed to get Denver and BC down to 13th, which means they can be caught. Merrimack I have gotten down to 14th. Union and Michigan can still miss the tournament completely.

Conversely, I have been able to get every current TUC into the tournament as an at-large team. I have not tried to calculate AHA but it seems safe to say RIT and RMU will not both be getting berths.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless said:
So the question remains: when two teams are tied and there is a disagreement between RPI and the comparison how is the tie broken? I doubt the NCAA is going to tell us unless it has to.
Click to expand...
It'd make sense to go with the comparison in that case, since it is comparing the teams on more than just one thing (and of course RPI is a component of the comparison). RPI-as-a-tiebreaker should only be used if more than two teams are tied and each of them have the same number of comparisons won against each other.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Bakunin said:
It'd make sense to go with the comparison in that case, since it is comparing the teams on more than just one thing (and of course RPI is a component of the comparison). RPI-as-a-tiebreaker should only be used if more than two teams are tied and each of them have the same number of comparisons won against each other.
Click to expand...

Making sense is not a consideration -- this is the NCAA that we are talking about. :)
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The Pairwise Games of the Night:

WCHA: #5 Denver @ #9 Nebraska-Omaha
CCHA: #10 Notre Dame @ #15 Western Michigan
ECAC: #21 Princeton @ #14 RPI
HEA: #4 Merrimack @ #20 Maine

If the UAA/UAF game has any bearing on the field of 15, it could be a late night.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

The UAF/UAA game will determine the middle of the pack.

No matter who wins the top five spots are

Code: 
1	Yale (EC)
2	North Dakota (WC)
3	Boston Coll (HE)
4	Merrimack (HE)
5	Michigan (CC)

and 11-15 are

Code: 
11	Minn-Duluth (WC)
12	New Hampshire (HE)
13	Dartmouth (EC)
14	RPI (EC)
15	CO College (WC)

if Alaska wins:
Code: 
6	Notre Dame (CC)
7	Denver U (WC)
8	NE-Omaha (WC)
9	Miami (CC)
10	Union (EC)
if Anchorage wins:
Code: 
6	Notre Dame (CC)
7	Denver U (WC)
8	Union (EC)
9	NE-Omaha (WC)
10	Miami (CC)
if the game ends in a tie:
Code: 
6	Denver U (WC)
7	Union (EC)
8	NE-Omaha (WC)
9	Notre Dame (CC)
10	Miami (CC)

If I'm still up when the game ends, I'll update. Otherwise, I'll do it tomorrow.

note: If Alaska wins Michigan will be ahead of Merrimack by .0001 RPI. SS will show them ahead despite Merrimack winning the comparison.
Likewise, SS will show BU ahead of CC based on a higher RPI.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless said:
The UAF/UAA game will determine the middle of the pack.

No matter who wins the top five spots are

Code: 
1	Yale (EC)
2	North Dakota (WC)
3	Boston Coll (HE)
4	Merrimack (HE)
5	Michigan (CC)

and 11-15 are

Code: 
11	Minn-Duluth (WC)
12	New Hampshire (HE)
13	Dartmouth (EC)
14	RPI (EC)
15	CO College (WC)

if Alaska wins:
Code: 
6	Notre Dame (CC)
7	Denver U (WC)
8	NE-Omaha (WC)
9	Miami (CC)
10	Union (EC)
if Anchorage wins:
Code: 
6	Notre Dame (CC)
7	Denver U (WC)
8	Union (EC)
9	NE-Omaha (WC)
10	Miami (CC)
if the game ends in a tie:
Code: 
6	Denver U (WC)
7	Union (EC)
8	NE-Omaha (WC)
9	Notre Dame (CC)
10	Miami (CC)

If I'm still up when the game ends, I'll update. Otherwise, I'll do it tomorrow.

note: If Alaska wins Michigan will be ahead of Merrimack by .0001 RPI. SS will show them ahead despite Merrimack winning the comparison.
Likewise, SS will show BU ahead of CC based on a higher RPI.
Click to expand...

How does the BU/CC tie get broken? As I remember it, the RPI generally is the tiebreaker, even though CC has the pair.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

slurpees said:
How does the BU/CC tie get broken? As I remember it, the RPI generally is the tiebreaker, even though CC has the pair.
Click to expand...

If three or more teams are tied, ties are broken by RPI. If two teams are tied there is some disagreement as to how the tie is broken. Some (SiouxSports) break the ties by RPI, others (TBRW) use the comparison. It has only happened once where the RPI and comparison disagreed, in 2005, and teams were switched anyway because of an all-HE 1st round game. The NCAA has not said how they break ties.
 
Last edited:
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Alaska wins.

Code: 
1	Yale (EC)
2	North Dakota (WC)
3	Boston Coll (HE)
4	Merrimack (HE)
5	Michigan (CC)
6	Notre Dame (CC)
7	Denver U (WC)
8	NE-Omaha (WC)
9	Miami (CC)
10	Union (EC)
11	Minn-Duluth (WC)
12	New Hampshire (HE)
13	Dartmouth (EC)
14	RPI (EC)
15	CO College (WC)

SS will have #5 Michigan ahead of #4 Mack by .0007 RPI.
SS will have #16 BU ahead of #15 CC by .0081 RPI

Code: 
[B]Bridgeport	Manchester	St Louis	Green Bay[/B]
Yale		BC		Merrimack	North Dakota
UNO		Denver		Michigan	Notre Dame
Miami		UNH		Union		UMD
AHA Champ	CC		Dartmouth	RPI

The TUC line:
Code: 
Cornell	        .5049
Bemidji State	.5034
RIT	        .5031
Quinnipiac	.5003
---
Ohio State	.4998
AK-Anchorage 	.4988
Niagara	        .4985
Mich State	.4983
Northern Mich	.4975
 
Last edited:
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Mine was a little different:

Bridgeport:
1. Yale (EC) - Host
8. Nebraska-Omaha (WC)
10. Union (EC) - Bus
16. Atlantic Hockey (AH)

St. Louis:
2. North Dakota (WC)
7. Denver (WC)
9. Miami (CC) - Bus
14. RPI (EC)

Manchester:
3. Boston College (HE) - Bus
5. Michigan (CC)
12. New Hampshire (HE) - Host
13. Dartmouth (EC) - Bus

Green Bay:
4. Merrimack (HE)
6. Notre Dame (CC) - Bus
11. Minnesota-Duluth (WH) - Bus
15. Colorado College (WH)
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

redwings8831 said:
Mine was a little different:

Bridgeport:
1. Yale (EC) - Host
8. Nebraska-Omaha (WC)
10. Union (EC) - Bus
16. Atlantic Hockey (AH)

St. Louis:
2. North Dakota (WC)
7. Denver (WC)
9. Miami (CC) - Bus
14. RPI (EC)

Manchester:
3. Boston College (HE) - Bus
5. Michigan (CC)
12. New Hampshire (HE) - Host
13. Dartmouth (EC) - Bus

Green Bay:
4. Merrimack (HE)
6. Notre Dame (CC) - Bus
11. Minnesota-Duluth (WH) - Bus
15. Colorado College (WH)
Click to expand...

I think Michigan stays west - they can bus to St. Louis, have a good fan base - whereas Denver has to fly no matter what and has a small fan base.
I was torn on where to assign the ECAC teams. One of Michigan, Notre Dame and Miami goes east. In my brackets, it is Miami and that leaves no room for Union. Dartmouth, CC and RPI are interchangeable except CC can't be paired with NoDak. Dartmouth and RPI are both bus rides to Manchester, so they are both options.

Of course, to keep the anti-WCHA myth alive, CC has to be in a bracket with another WCHA team :p
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless said:
I think Michigan stays west - they can bus to St. Louis, have a good fan base - whereas Denver has to fly no matter what and has a small fan base.
I was torn on where to assign the ECAC teams. One of Michigan, Notre Dame and Miami goes east. In my brackets, it is Miami and that leaves no room for Union. Dartmouth, CC and RPI are interchangeable except CC can't be paired with NoDak. Dartmouth and RPI are both bus rides to Manchester, so they are both options.

Of course, to keep the anti-WCHA myth alive, CC has to be in a bracket with another WCHA team :p
Click to expand...

I thought there was a 400 mile or under limit for busing. Ann Arbor is 541 miles from St. Louis (442 miles from Green Bay). I've heard that St. Louis really wants Michigan due to the connection with Berenson (player and coach for the Blues), but I don't know if the NCAA would do it if they can get Miami/Notre Dame (both under 400 miles) instead.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

redwings8831 said:
I thought there was a 400 mile or under limit for busing. Ann Arbor is 541 miles from St. Louis (442 miles from Green Bay). I've heard that St. Louis really wants Michigan due to the connection with Berenson (player and coach for the Blues), but I don't know if the NCAA would do it if they can get Miami/Notre Dame (both under 400 miles) instead.
Click to expand...

You are correct. It's Western Michigan who can bus to either site. If the NCAA allowed them to take the ferry, Michigan could bus to Green Bay :p
I still think Michigan and Notre Dame would stay west, but the NCAA might choose to save money on the flights.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless said:
The NCAA has not said how they break ties.
Click to expand...

Interesting then that uscho lists this:

"The final PWR ranking is based on the number of points (comparisons) won against teams with an RPI at or above .500. Ties are settled by the RPI"
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

slurpees said:
Interesting then that uscho lists this:

"The final PWR ranking is based on the number of points (comparisons) won against teams with an RPI at or above .500. Ties are settled by the RPI"
Click to expand...

Yes, and last season they broke ties between two teams using the comparison. I asked Jayson what was up with that but have heard crickets. I had a similar response from the NCAA.
 
Re: Too early for the PWR? Princeton and Brown say no!

Priceless said:
Yes, and last season they broke ties between two teams using the comparison. I asked Jayson what was up with that but have heard crickets. I had a similar response from the NCAA.
Click to expand...

I went to the NCAA to get a response. All I saw was smoke.
 
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