The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

[Cards81]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

The USCHO and d3hockey.com polls mean absolutely nothing when it comes to selecting teams to the NCAA Tournament.

I am certainly aware of that, but you need some baseline to go by. Draw up your own list of 8-10 teams in order and you watch how close it comes out. I wish more emphasis was put on the "eye test" and less on say L25 or COP. There's too much of the aforementioned Team A beats Team D, Team D beats Team B but not Team C, etc...It's tough to lose one of the main criteria when your COP is 3-0-1 and somebody else's is 4-0-1.

 

[GB Puck Fan]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

On the women's side, mileage trumps seeing.

Hmmm. Not necessarily. In 2013, SNC was flown to Plattsburgh... the lowest seed to the highest seed, IIRC. Now, with three west teams, it was likely someone was going to fly but that was strictly bracket intregrity, I think...

 

[GB Puck Fan]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

, I'm just pointing out that I believe that SNC gets in no matter what. I just don't see how the committee can go with an 8-3 split, given the tournament results of the last 5 years. I would hate to see it become a 7-4 split only if Adrian loses because I believe the West has made their case for an 7-4 split regardless.

I don't put much stock in this theory, sorry. They are evaluating the 2014-15 season. In reality, it shouldn't matter that SNC won the title last year, etc. If we lose Adrian and don't make the tournament, I will "blame" a four-game losing streak and the All-American goalie's broken leg (Sorry, Tony) - but not the committee.

That said, I hope you are right. But there are almost always conference tourney upsets. I just hope SNC can be one of them and not have to worry.

 

[joecct]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

Hmmm. Not necessarily. In 2013, SNC was flown to Plattsburgh... the lowest seed to the highest seed, IIRC. Now, with three west teams, it was likely someone was going to fly but that was strictly bracket intregrity, I think...

http://d3hockey.com/bracketology/women/14-15/feb-27

The money quote

n this instance, we're going to focus on point one and include here the pertinent language from the Pre-Championships Manual:

"Once selected, teams will be grouped in clusters according to natural geographic proximity. A team may be moved to balance the bracket if geographic proximity is maintained. Teams should be paired and eligible sites should be selected according to geographic proximity. Teams may be seeded on a regional basis using the selection criteria. However, geographic proximity takes precedence over seeding."

 

[peddler]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

I keep saying that human perspective has to come in to play and the argument I get is that there is this "criteria" that is established and that the "criteria" decides the field…even to the point where Trinity's loss to Tufts won't matter because they have the "criteria" on their side. If this is the case, why have a committee at all? Wouldn't a computer be all that is needed if "criteria" is all that it is based on? No. There is a committee to wade through some crappy "criteria" and put together the best field using "criteria" as a guide. If you want "criteria" only results, than get rid of the "committee" and all of our speculating.

When I was very new to this, there was an explanation of the process and its "criteria" that helped me understand (not agree, just understand) it. It get's updated annually and can be found here: http://www.d3hockey.com/bracketology/men/14-15/ncaa-tournament-selection-process

 

[joecct]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

Here's a guess on the East's 3/3-4/15 Ranking
1. Amherst
2. Oswego
3. Hobart
4. Norwich
5. Trinity
6. Plattsburgh
7. Babson
8. Mass-Boston (not comfortable with this one)

 

[peddler]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

How does Nichols College at 19-3-3 stay out of the top 15.

One of the easiest schedules in the East and 0 wins against ranked teams. And it's actually 16-3-3 (3 wins against non-D3 teams).

 

[peddler]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

I think if all of the home teams win this weekend, the Pool Cs are Trinity, Oswego, and Hobart. That, and a dollar, buy you any size coffee at McDonalds... it is fun to speculate though!

And for another McJava I say Oswego, Trinity, and SNC.

 

[peddler]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

Here's how I see it.. (and it doesn't mean that much because absolutely anything could happen next weekend with so many good teams vying for NCAA births, and we need to see the official rankings later today) ..only one 6-loss team will earn a Pool-C bid.

Hear me out:
- ECAC West/WIAC Pool B bid goes to either Hobart or Stevens-Point. If Hobart beats Neumann, they're a 6-loss team that might get in. If SP beats River Falls, there a 5-loss team that could get the Pool B bid over Hobart. This leaves either Hobart or SP waiting for a pool-C chance.

- Trinity & Amherst are at 3 & 4 losses. If neither win their conference, they're at 4 & 5 losses waiting for a Pool C chance.

- Norwich & UMB are at 3 & 4 losses. If Babson beats Norwich, Norwich & UMB will be sitting at 4 losses waiting for a Pool C chance. One of them will get it. If Norwich wins, Babson is at 6 losses and UMB at 4, so UMB will continue to wait for a Pool C Chance. This leaves trinity/amherst, UMB/Norwich, Hobart/Stevens Point vying for at larges.

- Adrian is a 3 loss team, so if they don't win their conference, they're in at 4 losses (SNC would get auto-bid). If they do win, St. Norberts sits at 6 losses waiting for a Pool C chance. (Now were at Trinity/Amherst, UMB/Norwich, Hobart/Stevens Point, Adrian/SNC)

- Oswego is a 3 loss team, so if they don't win their conference, they're also in at 4 losses (Platty would get the auto-bid). If they do win, Plattsburgh sits at 6 losses waiting for a Pool C chance. (Now we're at Trinity/Amherst, UMB/Norwich, Hobart/SP, Adrian/SNC, Oswego/Platty).

- Nichols SOS keeps them out of contention if they don't win their league (4 losses won't matter because of SOS).

So the teams vying for potential Pool C spots are!!...

Trinity (4 losses)/ Amherst (5 losses)
UMB (4 losses)/Norwich (4 losses)
Hobart (6/7 losses)/Stevens Point (5/6 losses)
Adrian (4 losses)/St. Norbert's (6 losses)
Oswego (4 losses)/Platty (6 losses)

If all the top seeds win their tourneys, then the Pool C bids would go to 4 loss UMB, 5 loss Amherst, and 6 loss SNC/Plattsburgh/Hobart/Stevens Point. If any of the teams that are top-seeded don't win, then they will go to NCAAs, and leave one of these other teams in the dust. Therefore I don't see how more than 1 6 loss team could make it, and if things go crazy this weekend, maybe any.

Guys - I know selections are more than just record based, but I just think this is how it breaks down at the end of the day.

If it were this easy I'd have stopped posting in 2010, and saved the rest of you all the pain

 

[oldguardco]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

Here's a guess on the East's 3/3-4/15 Ranking
1. Amherst
2. Oswego
3. Hobart
4. Norwich
5. Trinity
6. Plattsburgh
7. Babson
8. Mass-Boston (not comfortable with this one)

I acknowledge that the above is a guess, however, I do not understand how Hobart is getting so much love. They have played only two ranked teams (Trinity and Oswego) and lost both games. Based on that criteria (vs. ranked teams), their schedule is not much tougher than Nichols or whoever.

 

[PSUChamps2001]

I am familiar with that process; however, if they went strictly with that process Trinity would have been in last season. You can look at the field any year and see that a team with better "criteria" was left out.

2011 At-large teams: Elmira (17-7-4), Neumann (14-8-5), Oswego (23-5-0) and UW Superior (16-13-11).
2011 Snubs: Castleton (22-4-1), MSOE (21-6-1), UW-Stout (16-11-0), Williams (16-8-3), Geneseo (16-8-2).

2012 At-large teams: Elmira (15-9-3), Oswego (24-4-2), St. Thomas (18-6-2)
2012 Snubs: Adrian (20-6-1), Castleton (19-7-2), Bowdoin (16-6-3)

2013 was the one year out of the last 4 that there were no snubs with an argument.

Again, the "criteria" is just a guide.

Okay, no you don't get it. You are once again looking at simple record. You're not looking at the other criteria in which is ALL looked at. If it was just by record it would be pretty easy.

Again, criteria is NOT just "a guide".....come back young buck...you're starting to drift off into deep space 9...

 

[OSU2010]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

I think pool C's will be handed out in this order if the teams lose.

Trinity
Adrian
Amherst
Oswego
Norwich
UW-SP
UMass-Boston
Hobart
Plattsburgh
St Norbert

 

[spwood]

I think pool C's will be handed out in this order if the teams lose.

Trinity
Adrian
Amherst
Oswego
Norwich
UW-SP
UMass-Boston
Hobart
Plattsburgh
St Norbert

I don't think St. Norbert is that low and I suspect Boston is not that high.....

 

[Cards81]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

Here's the SOS Ranking for the contenders only:

1. Hobart
2. Amherst
3. Trinity
4. Plattsburgh
5. Stevens Point
6. Oswego
7. Adrian
8. Norwich
9. St. Norbert
10. Mass-Boston

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Here's the SOS Ranking for the contenders only:

1. Hobart
2. Amherst
3. Trinity
4. Plattsburgh
5. Stevens Point
6. Oswego
7. Adrian
8. Norwich
9. St. Norbert
10. Mass-Boston

This is why Hobart is so high.

 

[spwood]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

I am familiar with that process; however, if they went strictly with that process Trinity would have been in last season. You can look at the field any year and see that a team with better "criteria" was left out.

Again, the "criteria" is just a guide.

Trinity was flawed as far as the criteria goes. Their Strength of Schedule was atrocious. Most of us thought Trinity was ranked way too high to begin with. My problem was if you rank them as high as they were, how they could drop that far in five days. Honestly, most of us didn't think they belonged in the tourney going by the criteria.

 

[Cards81]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

It's also why Mass-Boston has played their last game.

This is why Hobart is so high.

 

[joecct]

Trinity was flawed as far as the criteria goes. Their Strength of Schedule was atrocious. Most of us thought Trinity was ranked way too high to begin with. My problem was if you rank them as high as they were, how they could drop that far in five days. Honestly, most of us didn't think they belonged in the tourney going by the criteria.

My bad. You're 100% right. The numbers support Trinity in the top 3. Perception puts them lower.

We'll know later today whether numbers or perception are running the rankings.

 

[neumanniaknights09]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

If Neumann goes into Hobart and wins the ECAC W I don't get why they won't get consideration for NCAA tournament? Its time for the ECAC W to add more teams or it's time for teams to look at other conferences where they can compete for auto bids.

 

[joecct]

If Neumann goes into Hobart and wins the ECAC W I don't get why they won't get consideration for NCAA tournament? Its time for the ECAC W to add more teams or it's time for teams to look at other conferences where they can compete for auto bids.

Lather, rinse, repeat.