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The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

spwood said:
BTW, I don't think much changes if Stevens Point doesn't win the WIAC. We've seen champions in Pool B conferences left out before. River Falls has too big a hill to climb to pass Steven Point (or Hobart for that matter). I firmly believe Stevens Point is in win or lose and that River Falls is playing its last game on Saturday.
Click to expand...

My implication was that if Point loses to RF on Saturday the Pool B could justifiably be awarded to Hobart (should they beat Neumann), and it would put both Point and RF in the Pool C discussion at least.
 
spwood said:
Except that you are giving too much weight to Trinity losing to Tufts over the weekend. In the NCAA's eyes, that loss is no worse than UMass Boston losing to Connecticut College January 4th. (Or St. Norbert's loss to St. Scholastica on Feb 6th.

I did find it funny that one of your points is that two of your losses are to a WIAC semi-finalist. With only 5 teams in the conference, practically everyone is a semi-finalist.

Look, bottom line is that there are more quality teams than the NCAA lets us have in the tournament. I understand your frustration, but it is what it is. After the field is announced, if St. Norbert doesn't make it (I really think they're going to beat Adrian this weekend and your worrying will have all been for nothing!), there will be a thread for "My team got screwed". Until then, relax a little... a lot is going to happen before you have to get this worked up.
Click to expand...

He said NCHA semi finalist...
 
Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

spwood said:
Except that you are giving too much weight to Trinity losing to Tufts over the weekend. In the NCAA's eyes, that loss is no worse than UMass Boston losing to Connecticut College January 4th. (Or St. Norbert's loss to St. Scholastica on Feb 6th.

I did find it funny that one of your points is that two of your losses are to a WIAC semi-finalist. With only 5 teams in the conference, practically everyone is a semi-finalist.

Look, bottom line is that there are more quality teams than the NCAA lets us have in the tournament. I understand your frustration, but it is what it is. After the field is announced, if St. Norbert doesn't make it (I really think they're going to beat Adrian this weekend and your worrying will have all been for nothing!), there will be a thread for "My team got screwed". Until then, relax a little... a lot is going to happen before you have to get this worked up.
Click to expand...
the "My team got screwed " thread very popular come mid-March,always fun to read
 
Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

snc11 said:
That being said, I know SNC goes into this weekend's championship game in better shape than they did going into the first Adrian weekend and I'm hopeful for a win; however, I'm just pointing out that I believe that SNC gets in no matter what.
Click to expand...

Here's how I see it.. (and it doesn't mean that much because absolutely anything could happen next weekend with so many good teams vying for NCAA births, and we need to see the official rankings later today) ..only one 6-loss team will earn a Pool-C bid.

Hear me out:
- ECAC West/WIAC Pool B bid goes to either Hobart or Stevens-Point. If Hobart beats Neumann, they're a 6-loss team that might get in. If SP beats River Falls, there a 5-loss team that could get the Pool B bid over Hobart. This leaves either Hobart or SP waiting for a pool-C chance.

- Trinity & Amherst are at 3 & 4 losses. If neither win their conference, they're at 4 & 5 losses waiting for a Pool C chance.

- Norwich & UMB are at 3 & 4 losses. If Babson beats Norwich, Norwich & UMB will be sitting at 4 losses waiting for a Pool C chance. One of them will get it. If Norwich wins, Babson is at 6 losses and UMB at 4, so UMB will continue to wait for a Pool C Chance. This leaves trinity/amherst, UMB/Norwich, Hobart/Stevens Point vying for at larges.

- Adrian is a 3 loss team, so if they don't win their conference, they're in at 4 losses (SNC would get auto-bid). If they do win, St. Norberts sits at 6 losses waiting for a Pool C chance. (Now were at Trinity/Amherst, UMB/Norwich, Hobart/Stevens Point, Adrian/SNC)

- Oswego is a 3 loss team, so if they don't win their conference, they're also in at 4 losses (Platty would get the auto-bid). If they do win, Plattsburgh sits at 6 losses waiting for a Pool C chance. (Now we're at Trinity/Amherst, UMB/Norwich, Hobart/SP, Adrian/SNC, Oswego/Platty).

- Nichols SOS keeps them out of contention if they don't win their league (4 losses won't matter because of SOS).

So the teams vying for potential Pool C spots are!!...

Trinity (4 losses)/ Amherst (5 losses)
UMB (4 losses)/Norwich (4 losses)
Hobart (6/7 losses)/Stevens Point (5/6 losses)
Adrian (4 losses)/St. Norbert's (6 losses)
Oswego (4 losses)/Platty (6 losses)

If all the top seeds win their tourneys, then the Pool C bids would go to 4 loss UMB, 5 loss Amherst, and 6 loss SNC/Plattsburgh/Hobart/Stevens Point. If any of the teams that are top-seeded don't win, then they will go to NCAAs, and leave one of these other teams in the dust. Therefore I don't see how more than 1 6 loss team could make it, and if things go crazy this weekend, maybe any.

Guys - I know selections are more than just record based, but I just think this is how it breaks down at the end of the day.
 
Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

I think the smoke filled room would work a whole lot better if it were tastey buds burning...although you would have to cut off the snacks to get the final vote completed... #DavesNotHereMan
 
Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

LakerEagleLover said:
I think the smoke filled room would work a whole lot better if it were tastey buds burning...although you would have to cut off the snacks to get the final vote completed... #DavesNotHereMan
Click to expand...

Alas, the smoke is from the tempers :eek: :p
 
Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

snc11 said:
You find it funny because that is how you read it, not because I wrote it that way. The two losses I was referring to were to the "NCHA Conference" semi-finalist (MSOE and St. Scholastica). Aside from the two teams (Adrian and Stevens Point) ranked ahead of SNC in the NCAA poll, they have only those two losses on the season.
Click to expand...

Obviously you missed where this was pointed out to me and I acknowledged it.
 
Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

ECACeastFAN said:
Here's how I see it.. (and it doesn't mean that much because absolutely anything could happen next weekend with so many good teams vying for NCAA births, and we need to see the official rankings later today) ..only one 6-loss team will earn a Pool-C bid.

Hear me out:
- ECAC West/WIAC Pool B bid goes to either Hobart or Stevens-Point. If Hobart beats Neumann, they're a 6-loss team that might get in. If SP beats River Falls, there a 5-loss team that could get the Pool B bid over Hobart. This leaves either Hobart or SP waiting for a pool-C chance.

- Trinity & Amherst are at 3 & 4 losses. If neither win their conference, they're at 4 & 5 losses waiting for a Pool C chance.

- Norwich & UMB are at 3 & 4 losses. If Babson beats Norwich, Norwich & UMB will be sitting at 4 losses waiting for a Pool C chance. One of them will get it. If Norwich wins, Babson is at 6 losses and UMB at 4, so UMB will continue to wait for a Pool C Chance. This leaves trinity/amherst, UMB/Norwich, Hobart/Stevens Point vying for at larges.

- Adrian is a 3 loss team, so if they don't win their conference, they're in at 4 losses (SNC would get auto-bid). If they do win, St. Norberts sits at 6 losses waiting for a Pool C chance. (Now were at Trinity/Amherst, UMB/Norwich, Hobart/Stevens Point, Adrian/SNC)

- Oswego is a 3 loss team, so if they don't win their conference, they're also in at 4 losses (Platty would get the auto-bid). If they do win, Plattsburgh sits at 6 losses waiting for a Pool C chance. (Now we're at Trinity/Amherst, UMB/Norwich, Hobart/SP, Adrian/SNC, Oswego/Platty).

- Nichols SOS keeps them out of contention if they don't win their league (4 losses won't matter because of SOS).

So the teams vying for potential Pool C spots are!!...

Trinity (4 losses)/ Amherst (5 losses)
UMB (4 losses)/Norwich (4 losses)
Hobart (6/7 losses)/Stevens Point (5/6 losses)
Adrian (4 losses)/St. Norbert's (6 losses)
Oswego (4 losses)/Platty (6 losses)

If all the top seeds win their tourneys, then the Pool C bids would go to 4 loss UMB, 5 loss Amherst, and 6 loss SNC/Plattsburgh/Hobart/Stevens Point. If any of the teams that are top-seeded don't win, then they will go to NCAAs, and leave one of these other teams in the dust. Therefore I don't see how more than 1 6 loss team could make it, and if things go crazy this weekend, maybe any.

Guys - I know selections are more than just record based, but I just think this is how it breaks down at the end of the day.
Click to expand...

Forgot Trinity lost already.. but still have them or Amherst getting a Pool C if Amherst doesn't win the NESCAC
 
Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

I believe Mass-Boston is done due to their SOS. Here's a composite of the two rankings system:
1. Adrian
2. Norwich
3. Oswego
4. Stevens Point
5. St. Norbert
6. Trinity
7. Plattsburgh
8. Amherst

Once a team wins, take them off this list. The one's remaining will be your Pool B (Stevens Point) and Pool C's. Hobart gets the B only with a win and a Stevens Point loss. I'm assuming Trinity has one of the Pool C's. The home team/favorites would be: Adrian,Plattsburgh, Norwich, Amherst. ECAC Northeast, MIAC, MASCAC are one bid conferences. If they all would win for instance the next team on the list is Oswego then Stevens Point then St. Norbert, etc. It works pretty well in the past with a few surprises. One key is Trinity. Are they punished for a QF loss to the point where it destroys their body of work? Another sticky one is Amherst. Should they be upset in the NESCAC tourney, where would they come out? I think Norwich, Oswego and Stevens Point are in pretty good shape for at least a bid. Plattsburgh and St. Norbert would need everyone to hold serve to have a shot at Pool C.
 
Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

Cards81 said:
I believe Mass-Boston is done due to their SOS. Here's a composite of the two rankings system:
1. Adrian
2. Norwich
3. Oswego
4. Stevens Point
5. St. Norbert
6. Trinity
7. Plattsburgh
8. Amherst

Once a team wins, take them off this list. The one's remaining will be your Pool B (Stevens Point) and Pool C's. Hobart gets the B only with a win and a Stevens Point loss. I'm assuming Trinity has one of the Pool C's. The home team/favorites would be: Adrian,Plattsburgh, Norwich, Amherst. ECAC Northeast, MIAC, MASCAC are one bid conferences. If they all would win for instance the next team on the list is Oswego then Stevens Point then St. Norbert, etc. It works pretty well in the past with a few surprises. One key is Trinity. Are they punished for a QF loss to the point where it destroys their body of work? Another sticky one is Amherst. Should they be upset in the NESCAC tourney, where would they come out? I think Norwich, Oswego and Stevens Point are in pretty good shape for at least a bid. Plattsburgh and St. Norbert would need everyone to hold serve to have a shot at Pool C.
Click to expand...

The USCHO and d3hockey.com polls mean absolutely nothing when it comes to selecting teams to the NCAA Tournament.
 
You newbies are awesome. While some may poke fun at some of your theories and predictions, keep up the good work! The whole leading up to the selection show is better than the show itself it seems at times. Several teams have legitimate points for being selected and at the same time can find reasons for not being selected. The biggest thing I can stress is that "feelings" can/shouldn't be involved because just like you and I , we will have different opinions based on the same criteria. Keep in mind that there will always be teams who have a better criteria score that aren't ranked,let alone in the tournament. Lastly along those lines we CAN NOT get caught up in JUST winn-loss record. This is just 1 of the criteria. The question becomes WHAT criteria will the committee weight the most and what the least. Keep in mind if the committee chooses to weight criteria "x" heavier for the first team, they must use the same weight to ALL teams. IE if the committee is weighting SOS more, even though Team A wins criteria 3-2, team B could be ahead of Team A. Another thing to keep in mind :

1. Team A
2. Team B
3. Team C
4. Team D

Team D may beat Team B in criteria, but not Team C...this scenario happens a lot....brace yourself now!
 
Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

I think if all of the home teams win this weekend, the Pool Cs are Trinity, Oswego, and Hobart. That, and a dollar, buy you any size coffee at McDonalds... it is fun to speculate though!
 
Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

PSUChamps2001 said:
You newbies are awesome. While some may poke fun at some of your theories and predictions, keep up the good work! The whole leading up to the selection show is better than the show itself it seems at times. Several teams have legitimate points for being selected and at the same time can find reasons for not being selected. The biggest thing I can stress is that "feelings" can/shouldn't be involved because just like you and I , we will have different opinions based on the same criteria. Keep in mind that there will always be teams who have a better criteria score that aren't ranked,let alone in the tournament. Lastly along those lines we CAN NOT get caught up in JUST winn-loss record. This is just 1 of the criteria. The question becomes WHAT criteria will the committee weight the most and what the least. Keep in mind if the committee chooses to weight criteria "x" heavier for the first team, they must use the same weight to ALL teams. IE if the committee is weighting SOS more, even though Team A wins criteria 3-2, team B could be ahead of Team A. Another thing to keep in mind :

1. Team A
2. Team B
3. Team C
4. Team D

Team D may beat Team B in criteria, but not Team C...this scenario happens a lot....brace yourself now!
Click to expand...

And let's not forget the travel distance issues that have left us scratching our heads in the past. If Adrian get's in perhaps the Committee tosses another curveball.
 
Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

snc11 said:
Last season, the Pool C bids went to Norwich (6 losses), Geneseo (6 losses) and Adrian (2 losses). Norwich was the only at large not to get to 20 wins (19). Left out of the mix last year were Trinity (5 losses) and Plattsburgh (5 losses) and UMass Boston (6 losses). I like your thinking, but the number of losses doesn't seem to guarantee anything.

If Babson beats Norwich, Norwich gets a Pool C. There is no way they give two Pool C's to one conference; thus, UMass Boston is out. They are rooting for Norwich on Saturday in which case Babson is out.

If Neumann beats Hobart, no ECAC-West team gets a post-season bid. Stevens Point get Pool B with win, Pool C with loss and Hobart win. Those are completely interchangeable. I think they give Stevens Point the Pool B so that they are free to give one of the Pool C's to the West without too much backlash.

Amherst is in with a Pool A. I don't see them blowing that huge gift. Trinity crosses their fingers hoping that the committee overlooks a QF loss to Tufts knowing they didn't overlook a semi-final loss to Bowdoin a year ago.

SUNYAC is sticky. I believe winner is in, loser goes home. Plattsburgh is 19-6-2 if Oswego wins. Not good enough for Pool C. Oswego is at 18 wins if they lose. Not good enough for Pool C. I believe a 20-win season is crucial this year for Pool B and Pool C's. Just my opinion. I know that flies in the face of the 6-loss argument, but there are going to be too many 20 win teams to award a Pool C to a "less than 20" win team.

If all the home teams win this weekend, I give the Pool B to Stevens Point; and, the Pool C's to UMass-Boston, Hobart and St. Norbert. I just don't see an 8-3 split here. They should reward the success of the West in recent years with 2 at-large invites. With this scenario, 5 of the 8 ranked East teams make the tournament and 3 of the 6 ranked West teams make the tournament. The unranked teams would be the MIAC winner; the MASCAC winner and the ECAC Northeast winner.

There are just way too many scenarios if the home teams do not hold.
Click to expand...

I agree with a lot of this. I guess what it comes down to is the human element. Norwich's 6 losses last year & under 20 wins theoretically shouldn't have got them in. I thought for sure it was Trinity's bid. But the human element has shown that we just don't know what goes on behind the scenes. I like to think the "committee" has watched enough hockey that at the end of the day, they make the right decisions. Bubble teams rarely win the tourney anyway.

If you remember, last year there was a delay in the final (4th round) rankings being shared. There's a deadline there supposed to release them by, but it took longer to delegate their decisions than expected. I sometimes think that extra hour or two was spend solely on Norwich vs. Trinity, and Norwich's reputation was all that got them the nod. The human element being the deciding factor. Of course, this is a Babson fan speaking...

In d3 sports, you also have to think some coaches have some serious pull..
 
ecaceastfan said:
i agree with a lot of this. I guess what it comes down to is the human element. Norwich's 6 losses last year & under 20 wins theoretically shouldn't have got them in. I thought for sure it was trinity's bid. But the human element has shown that we just don't know what goes on behind the scenes. I like to think the "committee" has watched enough hockey that at the end of the day, they make the right decisions. Bubble teams rarely win the tourney anyway.

If you remember, last year there was a delay in the final (4th round) rankings being shared. There's a deadline there supposed to release them by, but it took longer to delegate their decisions than expected. I sometimes think that extra hour or two was spend solely on norwich vs. Trinity, and norwich's reputation was all that got them the nod. The human element being the deciding factor. Of course, this is a babson fan speaking...

In d3 sports, you also have to think some coaches have some serious pull..
Click to expand...

smh...
 
Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

ECACeastFAN said:
Here's how I see it.. (and it doesn't mean that much because absolutely anything could happen next weekend with so many good teams vying for NCAA births, and we need to see the official rankings later today) ..only one 6-loss team will earn a Pool-C bid.

Hear me out:
- ECAC West/WIAC Pool B bid goes to either Hobart or Stevens-Point. If Hobart beats Neumann, they're a 6-loss team that might get in. If SP beats River Falls, there a 5-loss team that could get the Pool B bid over Hobart. This leaves either Hobart or SP waiting for a pool-C chance.

- Trinity & Amherst are at 3 & 4 losses. If neither win their conference, they're at 4 & 5 losses waiting for a Pool C chance.

- Norwich & UMB are at 3 & 4 losses. If Babson beats Norwich, Norwich & UMB will be sitting at 4 losses waiting for a Pool C chance. One of them will get it. If Norwich wins, Babson is at 6 losses and UMB at 4, so UMB will continue to wait for a Pool C Chance. This leaves trinity/amherst, UMB/Norwich, Hobart/Stevens Point vying for at larges.

- Adrian is a 3 loss team, so if they don't win their conference, they're in at 4 losses (SNC would get auto-bid). If they do win, St. Norberts sits at 6 losses waiting for a Pool C chance. (Now were at Trinity/Amherst, UMB/Norwich, Hobart/Stevens Point, Adrian/SNC)

- Oswego is a 3 loss team, so if they don't win their conference, they're also in at 4 losses (Platty would get the auto-bid). If they do win, Plattsburgh sits at 6 losses waiting for a Pool C chance. (Now we're at Trinity/Amherst, UMB/Norwich, Hobart/SP, Adrian/SNC, Oswego/Platty).

- Nichols SOS keeps them out of contention if they don't win their league (4 losses won't matter because of SOS).

So the teams vying for potential Pool C spots are!!...

Trinity (4 losses)/ Amherst (5 losses)
UMB (4 losses)/Norwich (4 losses)
Hobart (6/7 losses)/Stevens Point (5/6 losses)
Adrian (4 losses)/St. Norbert's (6 losses)
Oswego (4 losses)/Platty (6 losses)

If all the top seeds win their tourneys, then the Pool C bids would go to 4 loss UMB, 5 loss Amherst, and 6 loss SNC/Plattsburgh/Hobart/Stevens Point. If any of the teams that are top-seeded don't win, then they will go to NCAAs, and leave one of these other teams in the dust. Therefore I don't see how more than 1 6 loss team could make it, and if things go crazy this weekend, maybe any.

Guys - I know selections are more than just record based, but I just think this is how it breaks down at the end of the day.
Click to expand...

Oswego is a two loss team, their Loss to DII SNHU doesn't count in Primary Criteria
 
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