The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

[bakdraft21]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

dont know if this counts but ST N is the defending champs,this may also be taken into consideration,if it were me voting I would lean that way if it came down to it.

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

If Adrian, Trinity, Norwich, and OSU loose their tourney's, oops Trinity did. I think Norwich is in for there is a LUV fest with the Wich. Also the Western Teams lost (Adrian and St. Norbert the exception) makes it easier for the remaining but I would say Trinity since they are the new kid on the block and they aren't going to their conference final, just my opinion.
Cards 81 I don't think Oswego is a lock for a "C" bid. To much smoke in that room to tell.
Oswego '88

"Luv" fest for the team ranked 6th in the eastern ranking?

 

[joecct]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

IMO…for what it is worth…there is no way the West will be sending only 3 teams. It has got to be a 7-4 split. Recent history mandates the West to have a minimum of four. Two Pool A's (Hamline or St. Mary's; and, Adrian or St. Norbert); one Pool B (Stephens Point); and, one Pool C (Adrian or St. Norbert). The other Pool C's are coming out of the East and they are anybody's guess.

Last Wednesday's comparisons did not currently favor a 7/4 split. Things do change but Trinity in the Pool C mix probably kicks the number of available C slots to 2.

I'm wondering if somebody other than Amherst wins the NESCAC will there be 3 NESCAC teams in the tournament? Or will Trinity/Amherst get punished to a sufficiently low ranking to exclude them from C consideration.

 

[Hockeyfan2113]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

Did the committee use the "criteria" when omitting Trinity last year? I believe that this decade "favors" a 7/4 split. (4 of 5 National Champions; 7 of 10 Championship game appearances). I believe the "criteria" are used "to gain perspective", not to assign the slots. That's where human reasoning comes in. To go 8/3 would go against reasoning.

I'll say it again, Trinity's semi-final loss last year against a good Bowdoin team gave them a stronger argument for making the tournament than this year's quarter final loss against a bad Tufts team. Last year, they went from #1 to out in the very last weekend. Now the committee has a chance to move them with two weeks to play. Does the committee owe them?

My gut says no because this is a very bad loss to have when other teams who are still in it, did win and have the chance to make stronger cases to go above them next weekend. But again, maybe they look at overall year and decide that this loss doesnt matter that much in the scheme of things. But we shall see as always. Nothing is guaranteed if you dont get the autobid.

 

[joecct]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

We'll know on Tuesday or Wednesday, but a loss is a loss and there is nothing special about losing to the #8 seed in the QF or in December. The numbers are affected, but no more than a mid season loss to a bad team in mid season.

So Trinity's Win%, SoS, L25 and possibly CoP are hurt, but by only one loss. Unlike last year, when Trinity's OOC was Little Sisters of the Poor, they played (and won) against quality OOC opponents this season. Their PWC against the ranked teams will probably move them down a bit, but not too far.

I'd think Amherst is your new #1 East come Tuenesday.

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

We'll know on Tuesday or Wednesday, but a loss is a loss and there is nothing special about losing to the #8 seed in the QF or in December. The numbers are affected, but no more than a mid season loss to a bad team in mid season.

So Trinity's Win%, SoS, L25 and possibly CoP are hurt, but by only one loss. Unlike last year, when Trinity's OOC was Little Sisters of the Poor, they played (and won) against quality OOC opponents this season. Their PWC against the ranked teams will probably move them down a bit, but not too far.

I'd think Amherst is your new #1 East come Tuenesday.

I think you're correct. I'll say Amherst, Oswego, Trinity, Hobart, Norwich is your top 5.

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

The Field:
MASCAC Champion
MIAC Champion
Northeast 10 Champion
Norwich (win or lose vs. Babson)
Oswego (win or lose vs. Plattsburgh)
Adrian (win or lose vs. St. Norbert)
Hobart/Stevens Point - Pool B -(both in if they win, Hobart out with a loss)
Amherst (probably in if they win at least their 1st game)
Plattsburgh (could be in if Amherst, Adrian and Norwich all win)
St. Norbert (need lots of help if they don't win)

1 small correction: You mean ECAC-Northeast. The NE-10 is a DII tournament consisting entirely of teams ineligible for the NCAA Tourny.


As for your point, I offer you this doomsday scenario: Plattsburgh, St. Norbert, Babson, Stevens Point, Hobart, and someone other than Amherst all win their respective titles. We agree Adrian and Trinity get Pool C Bids in that scenario, with UWSP taking Pool B. But that leaves Hobart, Oswego, and Norwich vying for ONE spot in the field. Who gets that?

I haven't crunched the numbers yet, but I can't outright discard the possibility of Hobart leaving the Lakers and Cadets out of it. Playing Plattsburgh and Babson will have slightly boosted their SOS numbers, but the losses will have hurt them in WIN, RNK, and L25 categories... Meanwhile, Hobart would be improving in 2 of those categories with a win over Neumann. If it would hurt them enough, I can't say.

Just a thought.

EDIT: I just realized you DON'T have Trinity getting a Pool C bid. I still do, so I guess we disagree there.

 

[spwood]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

I think some people take the "smoke filled room" running joke we have a little too seriously. My understanding of the smoke filled room isn't that they ignore the criteria.... it's that they massage the criteria in ways that are hard for us to figure out. For the conspiracy theorists that think Norwich is in no matter what, I don't think so. While I do believe they are going to move up (watch UMASS Boston drop out of sight now...), the more teams above them that win out, the better for them. As for the defending champs, I really think they are going to get the Pool A, but if they don't, they are border-line right now. Another loss makes it real iffy for them. Thing is, d3hockey.com does a great article every year where they talk about the field and how it was arrived at. While they can be surprised, they are generally able to explain the committees decisions.

While we all joke about the smoke-filled room, two things are still true: the Committee generally does a good job and win your tourney and you're in (Pool B conferences excepted).

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

1 small correction: You mean ECAC-Northeast. The NE-10 is a DII tournament consisting entirely of teams ineligible for the NCAA Tourny.


As for your point, I offer you this doomsday scenario: Plattsburgh, St. Norbert, Babson, Stevens Point, Hobart, and someone other than Amherst all win their respective titles. We agree Adrian and Trinity get Pool C Bids in that scenario, with UWSP taking Pool B. But that leaves Hobart, Oswego, and Norwich vying for ONE spot in the field. Who gets that?

I haven't crunched the numbers yet, but I can't outright discard the possibility of Hobart leaving the Lakers and Cadets out of it. Playing Plattsburgh and Babson will have slightly boosted their SOS numbers, but the losses will have hurt them in WIN, RNK, and L25 categories... Meanwhile, Hobart would be improving in 2 of those categories with a win over Neumann. If it would hurt them enough, I can't say.

Just a thought.

EDIT: I just realized you DON'T have Trinity getting a Pool C bid. I still do, so I guess we disagree there.

If the committee really wants to strengthen Hobart's Pool B/C resume, they should rank Neumann. Assuming a Hobart win, the Statesmen would pick 4 wins in rank and zero losses...

The question is, who do you take out of last week's 8?

 

[spwood]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

If the committee really wants to strengthen Hobart's Pool B/C resume, they should rank Neumann. Assuming a Hobart win, the Statesmen would pick 4 wins in rank and zero losses...

The question is, who do you take out of last week's 8?

If they are trying to strengthen Hobart's case? There's no one you can take out Tuesday, but for Sunday's ranking? How about UMass Boston? They have no shot of getting in and could get the Trinity treatment in the unpublished rankings...

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

If they are trying to strengthen Hobart's case? There's no one you can take out Tuesday, but for Sunday's ranking? How about UMass Boston? They have no shot of getting in and could get the Trinity treatment in the unpublished rankings...

That was the most likely candidate, and actually, that would help Trinity as they would lose a ranked loss to UMass Boston.

It would hurt Babson as they are 2-1 against UMB and it would be relatively indifferent to Norwich who split with them.

 

[spwood]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

That was the most likely candidate, and actually, that would help Trinity as they would lose a ranked loss to UMass Boston.

It would hurt Babson as they are 2-1 against UMB and it would be relatively indifferent to Norwich who split with them.

Babson almost certainly needs to win Saturday anyway, so no real harm there. Whichever team loses on Saturday in the ECAC-E is in serious trouble (Babson would be out and Norwich would be nailbiting until the Selection show).

 

[joecct]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

As for your point, I offer you this doomsday scenario: Plattsburgh, St. Norbert, Babson, Stevens Point, Hobart, and someone other than Amherst all win their respective titles. We agree Adrian and Trinity get Pool C Bids in that scenario, with UWSP taking Pool B. But that leaves Hobart, Oswego, and Norwich vying for ONE spot in the field. Who gets that?

Let's say a miracle happens on Sunday and Williams finally wins the NESCAC. Amherst, who could/should be ranked East #1 this week will also be in the Pool C mix despite a loss against a "bubbling under the rankings" Williams team.

 

[joecct]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

This suggestion is exactly the reason why the "criteria" sucks. If the "criteria" still has U-Mass Boston in the rankings, then why should they be removed from the rankings just because they now have no shot at a Pool C? I know why. Let's remove them to make another team look better. Crazy. Quite frankly, I would take UMB and their loss to a strong Babson squad over Trinity and their loss to Tufts. It's absolutely ridiculous that losing to a terrible team holds less weight than losing to a ranked team. Our boys have 5 losses this year. Three of those are to the two teams ranked above them in the NCAA rankings. The other two are to the other NCHA semi-finalist (and one-time ranked teams). We didn't drop one to a sub .500 team, but according to the criteria, that would have been better for us.

Fyp

 

[altazo]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

Things could get even messier out west should RF upset Point in the WIAC championship ...

 

[spwood]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

This suggestion is exactly the reason why the "criteria" sucks. If the "criteria" still has U-Mass Boston in the rankings, then why should they be removed from the rankings just because they now have no shot at a Pool B? I know why. Let's remove them to make another team look better. Crazy. Quite frankly, I would take UMB and their loss to a strong Babson squad over Trinity and their loss to Tufts. It's absolutely ridiculous that losing to a terrible team holds less weight than losing to a ranked team. Our boys have 5 losses this year. Three of those are to the two teams ranked above them in the NCAA rankings. The other two are to the other NCHA semi-finalist (and one-time ranked teams). We didn't drop one to a sub .500 team, but according to the criteria, that would have been better for us.

Except that you are giving too much weight to Trinity losing to Tufts over the weekend. In the NCAA's eyes, that loss is no worse than UMass Boston losing to Connecticut College January 4th. (Or St. Norbert's loss to St. Scholastica on Feb 6th.

I did find it funny that one of your points is that two of your losses are to a WIAC semi-finalist. With only 5 teams in the conference, practically everyone is a semi-finalist.

Look, bottom line is that there are more quality teams than the NCAA lets us have in the tournament. I understand your frustration, but it is what it is. After the field is announced, if St. Norbert doesn't make it (I really think they're going to beat Adrian this weekend and your worrying will have all been for nothing!), there will be a thread for "My team got screwed". Until then, relax a little... a lot is going to happen before you have to get this worked up.

 

[joecct]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

...Look, bottom line is that there are more quality teams than the NCAA lets us have in the tournament...

It may be true of the 11 team field but the teams that can claim to be legitimate contenders to be the last team standing after the final game can be counted on the fingers of one hand.

However, if there is #Carnage after Saturday night, then all bets will be off (as it was when #Neumann won the title).

 

[puckwiz]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

How does Nichols College at 19-3-3 stay out of the top 15.

 

[spwood]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

It may be true of the 11 team field but the teams that can claim to be legitimate contenders to be the last team standing after the final game can be counted on the fingers of one hand.

However, if there is #Carnage after Saturday night, then all bets will be off (as it was when #Neumann won the title).

What I meant was that after Pool A bids are awarded (which will never be changed - the NCAA rewards schools and conferences that sponsor sports with spots in the field), there are generally more teams with a legitimate shot at winning the tournament than there are spots available.

BTW, I don't think much changes if Stevens Point doesn't win the WIAC. We've seen champions in Pool B conferences left out before. River Falls has too big a hill to climb to pass Steven Point (or Hobart for that matter). I firmly believe Stevens Point is in win or lose and that River Falls is playing its last game on Saturday.

 

[spwood]

Re: The polls - scratching KRACH, PWC, CoP and robbery! ...---...

How does Nichols College at 19-3-3 stay out of the top 15.

Their schedule really weak... they just don't play any decent teams. Two of the criteria are strength of schedule and record against ranked teams. I don't see where they compare with any of the teams currently ranked ahead of them.