Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread
Let me catch up on some things (**** this whole working thing)
Is there anyway Elmira can get a bye through the play-in round if they win out?
Yes. The "all five byes in the east" scenario. Also the "CSS tanks, Adrian loses the MCHA, and the west gets screwed scenario." That would look something like...
W3 MCHA Winner at W2 MIAC Winner
E7 at E6
E8 at E5.
W3/W2 at W1 St. Norbert
E7/E6 at E2
E8/E5 at E1
E4 at E3.
Where Elmira is ranked E4 or higher. There are probably others.
It would be a complete joke if Adrian were to receive a first round bye. I know that NUprof and Josh have both scenarios playing out, but realistically, what are the chances of 4 west teams getting a bye? I have to think it's more likely, at this point in time at least, that Adrian goes east. What do you think the NCAA thinks?
The simplest answer to this is that "the NCAA" (i.e. the selection committee) won't think anything about this until March. Which is the comical part of us trying to predict anything, but hey, you're the idiots that keep replying to NUProf and I
I'll just get it out of the way now: If Adrian wins the MCHA AQ...they will go East.
Why? Because I said so.
I am increasingly of this mind as well. But the west doomsday scenario remains very possible in my mind (two western first round games). Consider that it's really only marginally more "unfair" to the west than is sending Adrian east for two consecutive games.
Would it though?
Travel wise....the NCAA would only have to fly one team if they wanted if they had two play-in games in the west and then the winners meeting in a quarterfinal game.
Thats the least costliest for the NCAA and after flying two teams last year and the fact that the women's tournament is all but offically going west this year (meaning atleast two and more than likely three eastern teams will have to be flown west), cost may rule the day again and the west will continue to get screwed putting St. Norbert or CSS in a play-in game.
I honestly don't think the cost of the women's tournament factors in to what happens in the men's tournament. How would that be any different than correlating women's soccer and men's hockey? At least in recent years the NCAA has shown an ability to be willing to fly two (or three, when it was held in Superior) teams for the Final Four. I also believe the NCAA regulations specifically invokve the 500 mile rule through the quarterfinal round. So I think for the Final Four, bracket integrity regains its prominence.
Potential Bracket, in that case. (I'll base seedings on the new polls, only 1 change from your seedings earlier - Williams in favor of Midd.)
I'll probably make a mistake that somebody will notice, so please bear with me.
E1 Oswego (SUNYAC)
E2 Norwich (ECACE)
E3 Plattsburgh (Pool C)
E4 Elmira (Pool B)
E5 Amherst (NESCAC)
E6 Williams (Pool C)
E7 Curry (ECACNE)
W1 St. Norbert (NCHA)
W2 St. Scholastica (Pool C)
W3 Gustavus (MIAC)
W4 MCHA
W4 MCHA @ W1 St. Norbert
W3 Gustavus @ W2 St. Scholastica
E7 Curry @ E6 Williams
Gustavus/Scholastica @ MCHA/Norbert
Curry/Williams@ E1 Oswego
E5 Amherst @ E2 Norwich
E4 Elmira @ E3 Plattsburgh
This is just crazy enough to be legitimate. It's just as easy for it to happen with Adrian as without. It is possible that with Adrian as the fourth western seed and SNC as the first (both assured if Adrian wins the MCHA, it seems) the west could be relegated to just one team in the semifinals. I might have to start including this as "Field 3" in my projections.
It would be best if the NCAA Division 2 schools would get off the dime and try to get their teams into the DIII tournament. That adds the 12th team immediately and makes things look so much more even!
(which apparently is never going to happen).
Be careful what you wish for. Think that with four byes, you have to have one opening round game feed into each bye. Or have two play-ins feed into one quarterfinal and have two teams with byes play each other (which means that somewhere, a lesser team is advancing over a better team). I just drew up some potential brackets. If you assume an AQ for the MASCAC (which is coming) it's honestly almost exactly like the current situation.
