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The definitive tournament speculation thread

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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Derek Dunning said:
I wasn't talking about Adrian getting a Pool C. They have no shot at making the NCAA tournament unless they win the MCHA tournament.
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Bingo. Adrian shot itself in the foot in that regard a month ago at Hamline. It's Pool A or bust.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Hammer said:
Bingo. Adrian shot itself in the foot in that regard a month ago at Hamline. It's Pool A or bust.
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Considering Adrian's all-time record against the MCHA, I don't forsee any bust in their future... At least not until the NCAAs. ;)
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Perversely, the 6-5 split is fairer to the second seed in the East that the bracket used last year. With the 6-5 split, the West can only get 3 byes and the East gets 2. Last year with more teams in the East, they only got 1 bye.

The ideal would be, of course, a 16 team tournament. That would only require that we have 104 D III hockey programs. That's not asking for too much expansion now is it?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

According to Colin Cowherd, D-I basketball is expanding to a 96 team field. If one sport can do it, why can't D-III hockey? :cool:
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

nysportsfan29 said:
According to Colin Cowherd, D-I basketball is expanding to a 96 team field. If one sport can do it, why can't D-III hockey? :cool:
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Priorities. Because D III is not D I. The NCAA doesn't care about amateur athletics. (I mean it - most DI basketball programs and all DIA football programs are, in reality, professional programs. Student-athletes are few and far between.)
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
Priorities. Because D III is not D I. The NCAA doesn't care about amateur athletics. (I mean it - most DI basketball programs and all DIA football programs are, in reality, professional programs. Student-athletes are few and far between.)
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Well that and there's something like 4-5x as many DI basketball teams as there are DIII hockey teams.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
Josh, should this be your field 4 because I could see something like that happening if CSS and SNC win out and then one makes the conference finals and loses.

IMHO, still a lot of possibilities out there and this should be a great month of hockey to help us see how it all pans out.
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My field 1/2/3(?) are based on the distribution of east/west teams I'm forecasting at the time. While your field is valid, it would require a 6-5 distribution, which I'm not projecting currently (and which is bloody unlikely anyways. See the discussion on "Can the SUNYAC get three teams in?" and substitute the NCHA).

Also, CSS does not have as locked in a case as SNC by any means. SNC has an .833 winning percentage, but one of their losses is against an eastern team and effectively ignored for NCAA purposes. CSS has a .786 winning percentage and one of their wins ignored. They might line up well against SNC when it's all said and done (the ignored team is the same and they've split so far), but against other Pool C contenders? It depends how willing the committee is into discussing secondary criteria. Aside from Northland/Lake Forest (and each other) their schedules are a wash. I think right now there's a clear (but not dominating) division between SNC and CSS, and if I'm holding CSS up to Elmira, for example, I'm not sure how that tips (seriously, I'm not looking into it at all). A 6-5 split means CSS can absorb a playoff loss to somebody other than SNC, and I'm not sure they can, if SNC doesn't win the NCHA.

Now, to your questions on "If we get a 6-5 split isn't this a valid field?" yes, it is. And in that vain if somebody wants to give me either a specific or loose set of circumstances they're curious about (and it's not too ridiculous) I'll try to draw up the appropriate combination of possible brackets if I have the time. It could be interesting to see combinations other than the presently expected 7-4 split (and put me in prime position to nail the bracket come selection Sunday).
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
Priorities. Because D III is not D I. The NCAA doesn't care about amateur athletics. (I mean it - most DI basketball programs and all DIA football programs are, in reality, professional programs. Student-athletes are few and far between.)
Click to expand...

Yes and no. The NCAA does care more about D1 football/basketball more, but
Division I football/basketball does "pay for" the rest of the NCAA sports which operate at a loss. It's kind of like the boss at work, you may like to make fun of him/her behind their back, but on Friday they signed your paycheck and you do own them that respect. So by caring about the "professional program" they are helping the amateur athletics thrive.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

SB in the 'Seo said:
Yes and no. The NCAA does care more about D1 football/basketball more, but
Division I football/basketball does "pay for" the rest of the NCAA sports which operate at a loss. It's kind of like the boss at work, you may like to make fun of him/her behind their back, but on Friday they signed your paycheck and you do own them that respect. So by caring about the "professional program" they are helping the amateur athletics thrive.
Click to expand...

True and False also - The fact is that the NCAA's supposed mission encompasses college athletics at all levels. With the amount of revenue they receive from the big two sports, they could easily spread more of their resources around. There is no way they would lose money if they were to fund championships like the DIII hockey championship in a way that would provide fairness to all involved. Relative to the NCAA budget, adding 1 team to the DIII men's hockey tournament to make it a 12 team tournament, adding one team to the DIII women's tournament to make 8, and then actually seeding both tournaments at a national level would cost less than $100,000, which in the context of the overall NCAA budget is nothing. DIII is the NCAA's biggest division, but the budget for DIII is less than 5% of the NCAA total budget. I agree that given the revenues generated DI deserves the lions share of the money, but not as much as they get.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
True and False also - The fact is that the NCAA's supposed mission encompasses college athletics at all levels. With the amount of revenue they receive from the big two sports, they could easily spread more of their resources around. There is no way they would lose money if they were to fund championships like the DIII hockey championship in a way that would provide fairness to all involved. Relative to the NCAA budget, adding 1 team to the DIII men's hockey tournament to make it a 12 team tournament, adding one team to the DIII women's tournament to make 8, and then actually seeding both tournaments at a national level would cost less than $100,000, which in the context of the overall NCAA budget is nothing. DIII is the NCAA's biggest division, but the budget for DIII is less than 5% of the NCAA total budget. I agree that given the revenues generated DI deserves the lions share of the money, but not as much as they get.
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Wow. 5% - that is just appalling.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
DIII is the NCAA's biggest division, but the budget for DIII is less than 5% of the NCAA total budget. I agree that given the revenues generated DI deserves the lions share of the money, but not as much as they get.
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Welcome to Capitalism 101. This here America:cool:

The NCAA will never conform to the ways of the CCCP and socialists:D
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Trying to do this weekly now...

E1 Oswego
E2 Norwich
E3 Elmira
E4 Williams
E5 Amherst
E6 Plattsburgh
E7 Wentworth

W1 St. Norbert
W2 St. Scholastica
W3 Gustavus Adolphus
W4 Adrian

Last Four Out: Middlebury, Hamline, Manhattanville, Bowdoin

Commentary: Middlebury's early-season struggles are keeping them out of the field. A win over Williams Tuesday gives them a chance to, ironically, displace Amherst, not Williams. Yes, I'm as confused by that as you are, but Williams' win over Norwich is going to give them a strong case. Plattsburgh's loss to Middlebury isn't that major an issue, as it makes the season series even. St. Scholastica strengthened their case by keeping even with SNC in the seaosn series and making ground on SNC in Winning Percentage. One of the things to keep an eye on is if Hamline can push themselves into the Pool C consideration. Also, I'm moving Wentworth ahead of Curry as the expected Northeast winner.


Field A

W4 Adrian at E3 Elmira
W3 Gustavus at W2 St. Scholastica
E7 Wentworth at E6 Plattsburgh

Wentworth/Plattsburgh at E2 Norwich
Adrian/Elmira at E1 Oswego
Gustavus/CSS at W1 St. Norbert
E5 Amherst at E4 WIlliams

I'm actually cooling on this concept if Oswego stays at E1 and Elmira stays at E3. It starts to make things less fair for the top eastern seeds (Elmira shouldn't be in the opening round, Oswego should get the Wentworth/Plattsburgh winner, etc). Plus I'm looking at CSS as the fourth best team overall now, suggesting maybe we should be looking at...


Field B

E7 Wentworth at E2 Norwich
E6 Plattsburgh at E3 Elmira
E5 Amherst at E4 Williams

Amherst/Williams at Oswego
Plattsburgh/Elmira at Wentworth/Norwich
Adrian at St. Norbert
Gustavus at St. Scholastica

That's my leader in the clubhouse right now, but we can't rule out...


Field C

W4 Adrian at W1 St. Norbert
W3 Gustavus at W2 St. Scholastica
E7 Wentworth at E6 Plattsburgh

Wentworth/Platsburgh at Oswego
Gustavus/CSS at Adrian/St. Norbert
Amherst at Norwich
Williams at Elmira

Place your bets!

Edit: Just for fun, what if we seeded the tournament independent of region?

1 Oswego
2 Norwich
3 St. Norbert
4 St. Scholastica
5 Elmira
6 Williams
7 Guastavus
8 Amherst
9 Plattsburgh
10 Wentworth
11 Adrian

The Field

11 Adrian at 6 Williams
10 Wentworth at 7 Gustavus
9 Plattsburgh at 8 Amherst

Amherst/Plattsburgh at Oswego - winner faces
Elmira at St. Scholastica
Williams/Adrian at St. Norbert - winner faces
Gustavus/Wentworth at Norwich
 
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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Josh Carey said:
Field C

W4 Adrian at W1 St. Norbert

Gustavus/CSS at Adrian/St. Norbert
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If Adrian pops Norbert, at Norbert, there's no way in hell they're hosting a QF game. If they do, there might be 2,000 people in the house at Arrington.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Hammer said:
If Adrian pops Norbert, at Norbert, there's no way in hell they're hosting a QF game. If they do, there might be 2,000 people in the house at Arrington.
Click to expand...

Well I think in that case you'd see the GAC/CSS winner hosting Adrian.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I think the only real way for hamline to push themselves into pool c consideration is win out, then lose in the conf finals.

They'll likely just have too many losses otherwise, unless the teams ahead of them mail it in down the stretch, or at least lose a bunch of games.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Barring something off the wall happening (say Norwich, Oswego, SNC and Scholastica all losing in the conference tournaments, I think we'll see what amounts to a "compromise" of sorts.

As the West has not performed well enough to warrant two QF's out here, someone may make a case that two first round games should be, but it won't happen. Were I to hazard a guess, the West would raise unholy hell at that prospect and likely not sign off on it. What's left is the middle ground, which gives the West top seed (SNC as of now) a spot straight to the QF's, while it would be MIAC winner @ St. Scholastica in a first round game. Adrian is the swing team and heads East, likely to Elmira. It's the simplest way to do it without hosing over either region, which means it's likely what we'll see.

Of course, upsets could change everything, but if everything goes remotely according to plan I'd bet on the above.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

What would be really interesting is if it was 7-4 with no Adrian. Not sure how that would be handled as either option is horrid.
 
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