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The definitive tournament speculation thread

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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

IMO, it makes sense, but given it would have to come from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee, "it wouldn't work".
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Hammer said:
Please tell me you're joking and that my BS meter is broken.
Click to expand...

Chill out man. I took another look at it. It now makes sense that the top four seeds in the East would only have to win one game to make the Final Four. Gotcha. I like it.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Of course, it also requires Oswego take the SUNYAC AQ, but that ain't gonna happen either :p
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

So, how does Middlebury's victory in Williamstown, MA change things here? It looks like Bowdoin wins the tiebreaker if the 3 currently at the top end up tied

The tiebreaking procudure, according to the NESCAC Championship Manual:
Code: 
Tie Breakers
The following tie-breaking procedure (listed in priority order) will be used to determine participants and seeding.
2-way tie:
1. Head-to-head result (if teams play each other more than once during the regular season, the game that appears on
the league schedule will be the game that is counted)
3-way or more tie or if teams tied during the regular season:
1. Best record among tying teams, against one another (head-to-head).
2. Most conference wins (in games that are part of the conference schedule and count toward league standings).
3. Comparison of results of conference games played against top 4 teams (including all teams at the 4th spot).
4. Comparison of results of conference games played against top 8 teams (including all teams at the 8th spot).
5. Comparison of results of conference games played against conference teams in rank order. Comparisons shall be
made one team at a time starting with the highest ranked team.
6. If the tie remains after comparing results against the highest ranked team, the results against the next team in rank
order shall be used. This process is continued until a winner is determined.
7. Coin flip (or similar random action involving all tied teams).

So, we go to 3-way tie procedure 1, and get:
Bowdoin: 1-0-1
Amherst: 1-1-0
Williams: 0-1-1

That's how the tiebreaker results, so the next bracketologies should have Bowdoin as the predicted AQ :(
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

CARDS_rule_the_Burgh said:
So, how does Middlebury's victory in Williamstown, MA change things here? It looks like Bowdoin wins the tiebreaker if the 3 currently at the top end up tied

The tiebreaking procudure, according to the NESCAC Championship Manual:
Code: 
Tie Breakers
The following tie-breaking procedure (listed in priority order) will be used to determine participants and seeding.
2-way tie:
1. Head-to-head result (if teams play each other more than once during the regular season, the game that appears on
the league schedule will be the game that is counted)
3-way or more tie or if teams tied during the regular season:
1. Best record among tying teams, against one another (head-to-head).
2. Most conference wins (in games that are part of the conference schedule and count toward league standings).
3. Comparison of results of conference games played against top 4 teams (including all teams at the 4th spot).
4. Comparison of results of conference games played against top 8 teams (including all teams at the 8th spot).
5. Comparison of results of conference games played against conference teams in rank order. Comparisons shall be
made one team at a time starting with the highest ranked team.
6. If the tie remains after comparing results against the highest ranked team, the results against the next team in rank
order shall be used. This process is continued until a winner is determined.
7. Coin flip (or similar random action involving all tied teams).

So, we go to 3-way tie procedure 1, and get:
Bowdoin: 1-0-1
Amherst: 1-1-0
Williams: 0-1-1

That's how the tiebreaker results, so the next bracketologies should have Bowdoin as the predicted AQ :(
Click to expand...

I don't see all three of them going perfect through the last 4 games. Who knows who will be ahead after next weekend. :confused:
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
I don't see all three of them going perfect through the last 4 games. Who knows who will be ahead after next weekend. :confused:
Click to expand...

Agreed, all we can really take from this is that Bowdoin controls their own destiny.:D
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

polarbearfan said:
Agreed, all we can really take from this is that Bowdoin controls their own destiny.:D
Click to expand...

Maybe, however if Williams loses, then you go to a two way tie breaker with Amherst, if both sweep. Similarly if Amherst loses its a two way tie breaker with Williams (but I think that one goes your way)
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
Maybe, however if Williams loses, then you go to a two way tie breaker with Amherst, if both sweep. Similarly if Amherst loses its a two way tie breaker with Williams (but I think that one goes your way)
Click to expand...

I posted this in the NESCAC thread but if Bowdoin wins out, it would be almost impossible for them not to win the regular season. The only scenarios in which they would not has Bowdoin and Williams both winning out and the 3rd and 4th spots being filled by Colby and either Middlebury, Hamilton or Tufts.

But again this could all go out the window after this weekend.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

one_to7 said:
I think the only real way for hamline to push themselves into pool c consideration is win out, then lose in the conf finals.

They'll likely just have too many losses otherwise, unless the teams ahead of them mail it in down the stretch, or at least lose a bunch of games.
Click to expand...

If either Hamline or Gustavus sweeps the other in their series this weekend, and then makes it to the conference tourney finals before losing, I would think that team should have a shot at overtaking one of the NESCAC teams for the final Pool C berth. In NUProf's computer rankings we have the following teams under contention for the third Pool C bid (assuming that either SNC or CSS win the NCHA and either Oswego or Platt win the SUNYAC):

6. Williams
8. Middlebury
9. Amherst
10. Gustavus
11. Bowdoin
12. Hamline
14. Trinity

Now I realize these rankings aren't "official" but they are the probably the best proxy we have at this point. Given that Williams and Bowdoin jumped up 4 and 7 places, respectively, in this week's rankings (and Williams only split their Norwich-Midd weekend), I don't think the possibility of a second MIAC team making the tournament can be summarily dismissed quite yet. There is still plenty to be decided on the ice yet, particularly in the MIAC and NESCAC.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

By the way - when are the first set of PairWise Rankings due out?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I don't think they've released D-III PWR for a couple seasons. He might be thinking of the regional rankings. I would expect those to start next week.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

one_to7 said:
Ask and ye shall receive.

And remember to thank Ed Trefzger
Click to expand...

Thanks Ed.

But remember those "rankings" are just listed by winning percentage and nothing else is incorporated. Yes it shows the comparisons, which is certainly great. But I guarantee you that Adrian isn't the #1 team in the west (if these incorporated everything) and Fitchburg State and Wentworth aren't so high:cool:
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Regional Rankings come out next week?!?!?! When was the first edition last year? Maybe around the 17th of February?
 
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