The definitive tournament speculation thread

[Hammer]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Well, considering that Monday is the 15th, that would put things right in line with last year.

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Time for our first look aided by the NCAA criteria. But first I have to ask: Does anybody want to be in this thing? Elmira, Scholastica, Wentworth, Williams, Amherst, Team RC (Sorry Webb, couldn't resist) all seem to be taking losses at the least opportune time for such a thing. With the season winding down, it's time for teams to make their case. On to the projections.

ECAC-East: Norwich
ECAC-Northeast: Curry
NESCAC: Middlebury (Sorry, am *not* projecting Bowdoin here. Unless they actually clinch).
SUNYAC: Oswego
MIAC: Gustavus Adolphus
MCHA: Adrian
NCHA: St. Norbert

Pool B: Elmira

Pool C: Plattsburgh, St. Scholastica, Amherst

On The Bubble: Hamline, Bowdoin, Williams, Manhattanville

Elmira continues to tank (to the point M'ville is nearing being able to make a case for Pool B). Bowdoin is closer to Amherst than I'd like to admit, but I'm still putting Hamline ahead of them for the time being. Speaking of which - Hamline is very close to Amherst.

Seedings

E1 Oswego
E2 Norwich
E3 Plattsburgh
E4 Middlebury
E5 Amherst
E6 Elmira
E7 Curry

W1 St. Norbert
W2 St. Scholastica
W3 Gustavus Adolphus
W4 Adrian

Elmira's tanking makes this a very easy field to construct as well.

Opening Round:
Gustavus at Scholastica
Adrian at Elmira
Curry at Amherst

Quarterfinals
GAC/CSS at St. Norbert
Adrian/Elmira at Oswego
Curry/Amherst at Norwich
Middlebury at Plattsburgh

Honestly, I'm a really big fan of that bracket. With CSS and Elmira both dropping, it actually gets very close to a completely equitable bracket. CSS is really the only team with a significant gripe, and Middlebury sees the benefit (such as going to Plattsburgh is a benefit).

But considering how close Hamline is to Amherst, I just want to throw the following out there:

E1 Oswego
E2 Norwich
E3 Plattsburgh
E4 Middlebury
E5 Elmira
E6 Curry

W1 SNC
W2 CSS
W3 Gustavus
W4 Hamline (Pool C)
W5 Adrian

That would leave us with one of the following...

Opening Round:
W4 Hamline at W3 GAC
E6 Curry at E3 Plattsburgh
E5 Elmira at E4 Middlebury

Quarterfinals
Hamline/GAC at W2 St. Scholastica
Curry/Plattsburgh at E2 Norwich
Elmira/Middlebury at E1 Oswego
W5 Adrian at W1 St. Norbert

-or-

Opening Round
W5 Adrian at E5 Elmira
W4 Hamline at W1 SNC
W3 GAC at W2 CSS

Quarterfinals
Adrian/Elmira at W1 Oswego
GAC/CSS at Adrian/SNC
E6 Curry at E2 Norwich
E4 Middlebury at E3 Plattsburgh

Pick your poison: Either Curry or Adrian to the Quarterfinal Round. And I do seriously believe Hamline is the first team out right now, which is why I bring it up.

EDIT: Courtesy of Matt Rennell

Opening Round
Adrian at Elmira
Curry at Norwich
Middlebury at Plattsburgh

Quarterfinals
Adrian/Elmira at Oswego
Midd/Plattsburgh at Curry/Norwich
Hamline at SNC
Gustavus at CSS

This gets more of the lower seeds where they belong, but at the cost of putting Norwich in the first round. If you can find a way to make a case for CSS being ahead of Norwich, it's not a large issue and might be the best option of the three.

 

[nysportsfan29]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

If Elmira continues their free fall and Manhattanville gets a sweep next weekend, how does that affect the bracket? It's been said that Adrian only has 3 options: Elmira, SNC, or Oswego.

At this point it seems that there is no way Oswego should play an opening round game. You could say the same for SNC, but Oswego's resume is more impressive.

Could Elmira still snag a Pool C bid? Do they have to win the ECAC W? Are they done all together if M'ville does better in the conference tourney?

 

[Steve Day]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

EDIT: Courtesy of Matt Rennell

Opening Round
Adrian at Elmira
Curry at Norwich
Middlebury at Plattsburgh

Quarterfinals
Adrian/Elmira at Oswego
Midd/Plattsburgh at Curry/Norwich
Hamline at SNC
Gustavus at CSS

This gets more of the lower seeds where they belong, but at the cost of putting Norwich in the first round. If you can find a way to make a case for CSS being ahead of Norwich, it's not a large issue and might be the best option of the three.

I would like to hear that case

 

[Matt Rennell]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

If Elmira continues their free fall and Manhattanville gets a sweep next weekend, how does that affect the bracket? It's been said that Adrian only has 3 options: Elmira, SNC, or Oswego.

At this point it seems that there is no way Oswego should play an opening round game. You could say the same for SNC, but Oswego's resume is more impressive.

Could Elmira still snag a Pool C bid? Do they have to win the ECAC W? Are they done all together if M'ville does better in the conference tourney?

At this point it looks as if Elmira's only ticket to the dance is by winning the ECAC West. This weekend killed them numbers wise in the rankings.

With that being said, that would mean the ECAC West is only going to get one team in the field, because the rest of the conference is very poor this year. So, this puts immense pressure on Elmira to win the ECAC West title because more than likely the NCAA will take the championship winner and give them the pool B, so long as it is Manhattanville, Neumann, or Hobart.

Would it be right to give it to one of those teams, especially if Elmira is still ahead in the criteria? No. However, when was the last time the ECAC West title winner did NOT receive the Pool B?

FYI Adrian can still be bused to both Hobart and Neumann.

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

At this point it looks as if Elmira's only ticket to the dance is by winning the ECAC West. This weekend killed them numbers wise in the rankings.

With that being said, that would mean the ECAC West is only going to get one team in the field, because the rest of the conference is very poor this year. So, this puts immense pressure on Elmira to win the ECAC West title because more than likely the NCAA will take the championship winner and give them the pool B, so long as it is Manhattanville, Neumann, or Hobart.

Would it be right to give it to one of those teams, especially if Elmira is still ahead in the criteria? No. However, when was the last time the ECAC West title winner did NOT receive the Pool B?

FYI Adrian can still be bused to both Hobart and Neumann.

I think Neumann is slightly more than 500 miles from Adrian by road. I remember checking google maps from Arrington to the Iceplex, and it didn't come within 500 miles

 

[DIIIFan]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Why is automatically assumed that the ECAC West gets 2 teams in the NCAA's every year especially when they don't have an AC. Maybe this year they will only get 1 since the ECAC West got 3 teams in last year and Neuman won NCAA last year. I find it hard to understand that a 7 team conference consistanly gets 2 teams in when there are other conferences with other good teams who gets snubbed. I guess it goes back to the smoke and mirrors of the selection committee.
Oswego '89

 

[Matt Rennell]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I think Neumann is slightly more than 500 miles from Adrian by road. I remember checking google maps from Arrington to the Iceplex, and it didn't come within 500 miles

I do find that very........odd.

After looking at Google Maps, the distance from Adrian's rink to Neumann's campus is 470 miles. However the distance from Adrian's rink to Neumann's rink is 577 miles.

Sooo, Neumann plays at a rink that is 107 miles from campus?

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I do find that very........odd.

After look at Google Maps, the distance from Adrian's rink to Neumann's campus is 470 miles. However the distance from Adrian's rink to Neumann's rink is 577 miles.

Sooo, Neumann plays at a rink that is 107 miles from campus?

I think that's weird. All I know is that I checked rink to rink, not campus to campus, so your info is interesting. Anybody know what's goin' on here?

 

[Stormy8174]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I know you are making predictions but what would the option then be if say, Oswego does not win the SUNYAC outright. Face it, they have not done so in several years. Say for instance Plattsburgh wins the SUNYAC, then Oswego should get a Pool C bid. Furthermore, what happens if another team aside from Oswego or Plattsburgh wins it? Interesting as it may be, Oswego would get a Pool C before Plattsburgh but would both teams get in if say a Fredonia wins the SUNYAC?

Just throwing in loops

 

[Matt Rennell]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I know you are making predictions but what would the option then be if say, Oswego does not win the SUNYAC outright. Face it, they have not done so in several years. Say for instance Plattsburgh wins the SUNYAC, then Oswego should get a Pool C bid. Furthermore, what happens if another team aside from Oswego or Plattsburgh wins it? Interesting as it may be, Oswego would get a Pool C before Plattsburgh but would both teams get in if say a Fredonia wins the SUNYAC?

Just throwing in loops

If all the other favorites win out and Fredonia wins the SUNYAC, based on the work I have done the three Pool C teams would be Oswego, Plattsburgh, and St. Scholastica in that order. I think Josh would agree as well. Of course, the numbers would obviously change but assuming it would involve only one more loss for each of these teams, that is likely what would happen.

 

[norm1909]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

If all the other favorites win out and Fredonia wins the SUNYAC, based on the work I have done the three Pool C teams would be Oswego, Plattsburgh, and St. Scholastica in that order. I think Josh would agree as well. Of course, the numbers would obviously change but assuming it would involve only one more loss for each of these teams, that is likely what would happen.

Just noticed, that THIS was Matt's 1000 post

 

[one_to7]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

If Oswego doesn't lose till the playoffs, they're still a virtual lock for the #1 seed in the east. Plattsburgh's chances depend on what other pool c eligible teams do. Although their chances are still pretty good unless they lose their last sunyac game and a playoff game.

And it doesn't matter how many teams are in a conference, all that matters is whether they earned an at large bid that year or not. It doesn't matter if there's 5 or 19 teams. The last few years there's been a bunch of solid to great teams in the ecac-w and they've gotten at large bids. This year there's two teams with solid cases, and the last week and the playoffs will determine which if not both get into the NCAA tournament.

 

[gojackets]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

i haven't been paying alot of attention...but how do we forsee the play-in games..quarterfinals playing out.

assuming that Adrian, CSS, SNC, and the Miac winner are in...would they advance to quarters or would adrian go to SNC and MIAC winner to CSS as play-in games or quarters?

 

[SB in the 'Seo]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I think that's weird. All I know is that I checked rink to rink, not campus to campus, so your info is interesting. Anybody know what's goin' on here?

Just ran it myself and I am getting similar results.

What's happening for me - and maybe someone with more "google maps" knowledge can enlighten us - is when I search for say Neumann University / Adrian College / Iceworks / Arrington a screen pops up that says "did you mean" and then there are a few options.

Next to those options is a # of miles (usual around 470 in this situation) and then you click the option you want and it gives you the directions and total miles (in this case about 570.) the reason for the disparity? If I had to guess I would say the 470 is an "as the crow flies distance" and the 570 is the actual amount of miles on the road.

I suppose the next question is which does the NCAA use? I would assume the miles on road.

 

[gojackets]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Just ran it myself and I am getting similar results.

What's happening for me - and maybe someone with more "google maps" knowledge can enlighten us - is when I search for say Neumann University / Adrian College / Iceworks / Arrington a screen pops up that says "did you mean" and then there are a few options.

Next to those options is a # of miles (usual around 470 in this situation) and then you click the option you want and it gives you the directions and total miles (in this case about 570.) the reason for the disparity? If I had to guess I would say the 470 is an "as the crow flies distance" and the 570 is the actual amount of miles on the road.

I suppose the next question is which does the NCAA use? I would assume the miles on road.

i typed in the addresses of the schools and it is 560 miles

 

[collegehcky2]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Just ran it myself and I am getting similar results.

What's happening for me - and maybe someone with more "google maps" knowledge can enlighten us - is when I search for say Neumann University / Adrian College / Iceworks / Arrington a screen pops up that says "did you mean" and then there are a few options.

Next to those options is a # of miles (usual around 470 in this situation) and then you click the option you want and it gives you the directions and total miles (in this case about 570.) the reason for the disparity? If I had to guess I would say the 470 is an "as the crow flies distance" and the 570 is the actual amount of miles on the road.

I suppose the next question is which does the NCAA use? I would assume the miles on road.

Straight line, it is 470 miles. (via Google Earth)

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I know you are making predictions but what would the option then be if say, Oswego does not win the SUNYAC outright. Face it, they have not done so in several years. Say for instance Plattsburgh wins the SUNYAC, then Oswego should get a Pool C bid. Furthermore, what happens if another team aside from Oswego or Plattsburgh wins it? Interesting as it may be, Oswego would get a Pool C before Plattsburgh but would both teams get in if say a Fredonia wins the SUNYAC?

Just throwing in loops

If Fredonia wins the SUNYAC tournament, expect Adrian to go to Fredonia for a first round game.

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I suppose the next question is which does the NCAA use? I would assume the miles on road.

Per the 2010 NCAA DIII Men's Ice Hockey Championships handbook (page11, 6 on the PDF):

Definition of In-Region Competition
1. All competition within an institution’s defined region.
2. All competition within a 200-mile radium from one institution to another.
3. All competition within an institutions membership geographical region (NCAA Bylaw
4.12.1.1).
4. The NCAA uses a mileage calculator to confirm distances from campus to campus.
It can be accessed online https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/TES/exec/miles.

Now, I'm assuming they use the same method to enforce the 500-mile rule, so...

Results:

Results
From: ADRIAN COLLEGE
To: NEUMANN UNIVERSITY
Miles: 598.0

If you were getting numbers like 470 and 570, don't ask me where they get 598. Bottom line is: no go on the Adrian @ Neumann. Also, I checked Adrian to Fredonia, and it came to 342 miles. Close enough to bus for a tourny game, but not close enough to override Regional membership and count as in-region competition. And i think we can all agree that Fredonia is the westernmost Eastern Team.

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Just noticed, that THIS was Matt's 1000 post

This rendition atleast.

He's had plenty more with Cards4life