Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread
If Elmira continues their free fall and Manhattanville gets a sweep next weekend, how does that affect the bracket? It's been said that Adrian only has 3 options: Elmira, SNC, or Oswego.
Turns out Oswego might not be a valid option. M'ville over Elmira and Oswego and Plattsburgh from the SUNYAC likely means Adrian plays SNC, either in the first round or the quarters.
At this point it seems that there is no way Oswego should play an opening round game. You could say the same for SNC, but Oswego's resume is more impressive.
I agree with your second point, not your first. Norwich is not that far behind Oswego in the criteria. If Norwich jumps Oswego for the top seed, any scenario in which the E2 seed plays in the opening round (and there are several) would have Oswego playing Wednesday.
Could Elmira still snag a Pool C bid? Do they have to win the ECAC W? Are they done all together if M'ville does better in the conference tourney?
No, yes, probably - depends on their upcoming games.
I would like to hear that case
Code:
Norwich vs St. Scholastica
WIN 0.8421 1 0.7500 0
OWP 0.5606 1 0.5451 0
OOP 0.5141 0 0.5403 1
You can't make it yet. But some more winning from CSS and some less from NU and it could tighten up.
Why is automatically assumed that the ECAC West gets 2 teams in the NCAA's every year especially when they don't have an AC.
My last projection (and most of everybody's recent projections) only have one ECAC-West team in this year...
Maybe this year they will only get 1 since the ECAC West got 3 teams in last year and Neuman won NCAA last year.
This is so irrelevant as to be funny. What happened last year has no bearing on this year.
I find it hard to understand that a 7 team conference consistanly gets 2 teams in when there are other conferences with other good teams who gets snubbed. I guess it goes back to the smoke and mirrors of the selection committee.
You mean a six team conference? And the reason is that for several years, most of the teams in that conference kicked the snot out of teams in other conferences they played. Surely you're not
advocating the line of thinking that keeps teams like Adrian/Fitchburg out of the tournament - that conference affiliation should preclude recognition?
I know you are making predictions but what would the option then be if say, Oswego does not win the SUNYAC outright. Face it, they have not done so in several years. Say for instance Plattsburgh wins the SUNYAC, then Oswego should get a Pool C bid.
Yes, then just swap Oswego and Plattsburgh in the SUNYAC/Pool C portions of my last bracket. Regional seedings don't change.
Furthermore, what happens if another team aside from Oswego or Plattsburgh wins it? Interesting as it may be, Oswego would get a Pool C before Plattsburgh but would both teams get in if say a Fredonia wins the SUNYAC?
This has been asked a couple times. At this point I am willing to say if Fredonia or somebody else wins the SUNYAC, Oswego and Plattsburgh are probably still in the tournament. Fredonia would be awarded with a Wednesday home game against Adrian.
If all the other favorites win out and Fredonia wins the SUNYAC, based on the work I have done the three Pool C teams would be Oswego, Plattsburgh, and St. Scholastica in that order. I think Josh would agree as well.
Yup.
If Oswego doesn't lose till the playoffs, they're still a virtual lock for the #1 seed in the east.
I disagree.
Code:
Norwich vs Oswego
WIN 0.8421 0 0.9545 1
OWP 0.5606 1 0.5261 0
OOP 0.5141 0 0.5185 1
H2H 0- 0- 0 0- 0- 0
COP 2- 0- 2 0 5- 0- 0 1
If Oswego loses to Plattsburgh, that decreases their COP advantage, and then you're looking at a lower WIN that could be offset by Norwich's OWP. I'm not saying it's likely, but don't lock Oswego into anything just yet.
Plattsburgh's chances depend on what other pool c eligible teams do. Although their chances are still pretty good unless they lose their last sunyac game and a playoff game.
Plattsburgh has a very solid hold on the first Pool C bid and is likely the 4th overall seed in the tournament. That means Oswego would have to lose the SUNYAC to somebody other than Plattsburgh, St. Norbert would have to lose the NCHA, and Norwich would have to lose the ECAC-East before we see Plattsburgh knocked out.
And it doesn't matter how many teams are in a conference, all that matters is whether they earned an at large bid that year or not. It doesn't matter if there's 5 or 19 teams. The last few years there's been a bunch of solid to great teams in the ecac-w and they've gotten at large bids. This year there's two teams with solid cases, and the last week and the playoffs will determine which if not both get into the NCAA tournament.
Hard to say it better myself.
i haven't been paying alot of attention...but how do we forsee the play-in games..quarterfinals playing out.
assuming that Adrian, CSS, SNC, and the Miac winner are in...would they advance to quarters or would adrian go to SNC and MIAC winner to CSS as play-in games or quarters?
Or would Adrian go to Elmira, the MIAC winner to CSS with the winner facing SNC? It's one of those three options... your guess is as good as anybody's.
