The definitive tournament speculation thread

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Scenario that saves us all a headache: Stevens Point wins the NCHA conference Playoffs. SNC gets Pool C, probably at the expense of Hamline. Adrian plays Point, winner plays at SNC.

The scary part about this is, Point would probably travel to Adrian in this scenario.

Assuming favorites win, except the NCHA, this gives us (the rest of this is based on Matt's work above):

East
1- Oswego
2- Norwich
3- Plattsburgh
4- Middlebury
5- Elmira
6- Curry

West
1- St. Norbert
2- St. Scholastica
3- Gustavus Adolphus
5- Adrian
6- Stevens Point

Thus we have:

Play-ins
Curry @ Plattsburgh
Elmira @ Middlebury
Point@ Adrian

NCAA Quarterfinals
Point/Adrian @ St. Norbert
Gustavus Adolphus @ St. Scholastica
Curry/Plattsburgh winner @ Norwich
Elmira/Middlebury winner @ Oswego


Now, do I expect this to happen? No. But it would be interesting to see, and it would make everybody's heads hurt that much less.

Just one point - you've got a counting problem - most of use 4 as the number that comes after 3, maybe they count differently in the West, though (had me confused as to how you could have a 6-6 split with 5 byes)

 

[norm1909]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Just one point - you've got a counting problem - most of use 4 as the number that comes after 3, maybe they count differently in the West, though (had me confused as to how you could have a 6-6 split with 5 byes)

In China, they often try to avoid the number "four" (Hanzi: 四) sounds like "death" (死 – pronounced "sì" and "sǐ", respectively) in Mandarin, maybe that is it

 

[Stormy8174]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

From the NCAA Regional Rankings

http://www.ncaa.com/sports/m-hockey/spec-rel/021610aab.html

(Thanks Ozz)

Was looking at this and I would suggest that if Fredonia were to some how make it to the NCAA as well as Adrian...would we see a Fredonia @ Adrian game instead of an Adrian @ Fredonia game? The are very close in OWP and OOP although Adrian has a slim 2-1 advantage right now over Fredonia in PWR according to the National team-by-team comparison.

I state this then I realize that in order for Fredonia to win the SUNYAC they have to beat either Plattsburgh and Oswego, unless another team besides Oswego makes the SUNYAC finals. Fredonia will need to go through Plattsburgh to get to the finals. Thus maybe this would push them past Adrian far enough so that the numbers are not as clear cut.

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Just one point - you've got a counting problem - most of use 4 as the number that comes after 3, maybe they count differently in the West, though (had me confused as to how you could have a 6-6 split with 5 byes)

In China, they often try to avoid the number "four" (Hanzi: 四) sounds like "death" (死 – pronounced "sì" and "sǐ", respectively) in Mandarin, maybe that is it

Although I wish I had thought it out like that, unfortunately it was a result fo careless copy/pasting and changing of the list.

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Although I wish I had thought it out like that, unfortunately it was a result fo careless copy/pasting and changing of the list.

Funny thing, I did the same thing in this thread a week or so ago, and I think you caught me Gocha back

 

[jimmy d]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Nuprof, You forgot to pick the Colby game!

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Nuprof, You forgot to pick the Colby game!

Ever since I got this new mac, the internet keeps eating my picks -- thanks!

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Just throwing this out there...

West, get prepared to be screwed by the committee. One of the (unofficial) concerns of the committee is attendance, because attendance=$$. If Plattsburgh makes the tournament (and if it certainly looks like they will), it is a strong possibility that the committee might arrange the bracket to get 1 West team in Lake Placid, so that there is a chance of an Oswego, Norwich, Plattsburgh, SNC final four. Amongst all the TUCs right now, that combination would make for the best attendance BY A LONG SHOT. I also think if Plattsburgh ends up on the "bubble" for a Pool C bid, they'll get it for just this reason. Plattsburgh's and Norwich's participation in Lake Placid could be a make-or-break aspect of the attendance figures. West, get ready to bend over... because you WILL get screwed. (a bit more than unfairly, I might add.)

Just saying...

 

[NorthernLite]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Just throwing this out there...

West, get prepared to be screwed by the committee.
Just saying...

I'm quite sure the West won't take this lying down.

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Just throwing this out there...

West, get prepared to be screwed by the committee. One of the (unofficial) concerns of the committee is attendance, because attendance=$$. If Plattsburgh makes the tournament (and if it certainly looks like they will), it is a strong possibility that the committee might arrange the bracket to get 1 West team in Lake Placid, so that there is a chance of an Oswego, Norwich, Plattsburgh, SNC final four. Amongst all the TUCs right now, that combination would make for the best attendance BY A LONG SHOT. I also think if Plattsburgh ends up on the "bubble" for a Pool C bid, they'll get it for just this reason. Plattsburgh's and Norwich's participation in Lake Placid could be a make-or-break aspect of the attendance figures. West, get ready to bend over... because you WILL get screwed. (a bit more than unfairly, I might add.)

Just saying...

I would think the committee would really like to see NU,Midd, Platts, and Oswego all in, but they aren't corrupt enough to set up a bracket that could make that happen.

 

[gojackets]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

When comparing East/West teams for the pool C, do they compare Primary Criteria first and then go to the secondary, or do they jump right to secondaries?

 

[joecct]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I would think the committee would really like to see NU,Midd, Platts, and Oswego all in, but they aren't corrupt enough to set up a bracket that could make that happen.

Back in the day the NCAA D-1 selection committee was not above seeding the tournament to ensure an all West FF.

 

[gojackets]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I also think if Plattsburgh ends up on the "bubble" for a Pool C bid, they'll get it for just this reason. Plattsburgh's and Norwich's participation in Lake Placid could be a make-or-break aspect of the attendance figures. West, get ready to bend over... because you WILL get screwed. (a bit more than unfairly, I might add.)

Just saying...

Remember they could have done that with Superior being borderline a few years back and didn't.

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Remember they could have done that with Superior being borderline a few years back and didn't.

And I don't believe even 2006 (the year many would cite as the example of the committee doing this) was rigged to increase attendance. I think it was just the first year of an expanded tournament, either the first or second year of Pool B teams being eligible for Pool C, and people not having experience trying to see what the committee was going to do. I'm not saying the committee isn't capable of incompetence, but I find collusion likely beyond them.

 

[NorthernLite]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I'm not saying the committee isn't capable of incompetence, but I find collusion likely beyond them.

....I totally agree, they get more credit for being strategic thinkers than they deserve.

 

[norm1909]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Division III Men’s Ice Hockey - Championship Information

Important Dates

Tuesday, January 12—Initial schedules due via the online score reporting system.
Friday, February 5—Proposed budget information and facility evaluation information sent
to institutions.
Monday, February 8—Updated score reporting forms due (noon Eastern time).
Monday, February 15—Updated score reporting forms due (noon Eastern time).
Friday, February 19—Proposed budget information and facility evaluations due in national office.
Monday, February 22—Updated score reporting forms due (noon Eastern time).
Monday, March 1—Updated score reporting forms due (noon Eastern time).
Sunday, March 7—Selection call.
Wednesday, March 10—First round (Three single sites).
Saturday, March 13—Quarterfinals (Four sites).
Friday, March 19—Semifinals (3:30 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. Eastern time).
Saturday, March 20—Championship game (5 p.m. Eastern time).

Pairings and Site Selection
Once automatic qualifiers are identified and the Pools B and C teams are selected, the
following guidelines should be followed:
• Once selected, teams will be grouped in clusters according to natural geographic
proximity. Teams will then be paired according to geographic proximity. A team may
be moved to numerically balance the bracket, if geographic proximity is maintained.
Teams should be paired and eligible sites should be selected according to geographic
proximity (within 500 miles).
• Teams may be seeded on a regional basis using the regional selection criteria.
However, geographic proximity takes precedence over seeding.
• Teams from the same conference do not have to play one another in the first round, as
long as geographic proximity is maintained.
• The highest-seeded team that meets all site selection criteria will be selected as the
host institution, provided geographic proximity is maintained.

All-Tournament Team
A six-member all tournament team shall be selected by members of the media, in
conjunction with the NCAA championship committee members, at the finals site. The
committee will make the final determination. The all-tournament team shall consist
of the following players: three forwards, two defenders and one goalkeeper. The most
outstanding player will be selected from among these players.

 

[HockeyNightmare]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Thre has been some switching back and forth over who will be the confernce champion from the ECAC-NE for participation in the tournament. Tomorrow first-place Curry (10-2-1/16-7-1) plays second-place Wentworth (11-3-0/18-4-1) for the ECAC-NE regular season championship.

 

[nysportsfan29]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Pool C contenders in the East have to be happy with the results in the West last night. Ties by CSS and Hamline to some bottom dwellers probably won't help them come Selection Sunday.

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Pool C contenders in the East have to be happy with the results in the West last night. Ties by CSS and Hamline to some bottom dwellers probably won't help them come Selection Sunday.

I'm not going to look at a full projection until tonight, but rough speculation would lead me to suggest we might be seeing 3 NESCAC teams make it into the tournament, and it's hard to rule out an 8-3 split at this point if CSS drops another game and GAC/Hamline don't both cruise to the conference title game.

Also, interesting speculation considering Adrian can't go to Oswego without flying...

7-4 split
Opening Round
W3 at W2 (winner at W1)
E7 at E3 (winner at E2)
E5 at E4 (winner at E1)

Quarterfinals
Adrian at Elmira

If you say SNC, Oswego, and NU are the top three seeds, I think this is the only 7-4 split with only one east and west team that can play Adrian that gets all three of the top seeds byes to the quarterfinals. It also gets the next to last seed in the east and last seed in the west byes, so, uh, yeah.

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I'm not going to look at a full projection until tonight, but rough speculation would lead me to suggest we might be seeing 3 NESCAC teams make it into the tournament, and it's hard to rule out an 8-3 split at this point if CSS drops another game and GAC/Hamline don't both cruise to the conference title game.

Also, interesting speculation considering Adrian can't go to Oswego without flying...

7-4 split
Opening Round
W3 at W2 (winner at W1)
E7 at E3 (winner at E2)
E5 at E4 (winner at E1)

Quarterfinals
Adrian at Elmira

If you say SNC, Oswego, and NU are the top three seeds, I think this is the only 7-4 split with only one east and west team that can play Adrian that gets all three of the top seeds byes to the quarterfinals. It also gets the next to last seed in the east and last seed in the west byes, so, uh, yeah.

As norm posted the quotes from the NCAA Geographic Proximity seems to be more important than anything else in the process. Take the income from one stinky shoe squeekball game and you more than pay for flying a team somewhere - probably several teams in several sports could be accommodated.

Maybe Fredonia will make the field There's a first round opponent for Adrian.