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The definitive tournament speculation thread

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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

gojackets said:
When comparing East/West teams for the pool C, do they compare Primary Criteria first and then go to the secondary, or do they jump right to secondaries?
Click to expand...

Nobody really knows, but I think they look at primary criteria first then secondary criteria. With Pool C teams they are probably more inclined to jump into the secondary criteria though.


Current Projection

ECAC-East: Norwich
NESCAC: Middlebury
ECAC-Northeast: Curry/Wentworth, take your pick/winner of tomorrow's game.
SUNYAC: Oswego
NCHA: St. Norbert
MIAC: Gustavus Adolphus
MCHA: Adrian
Pool B: Elmira
Pool C: Plattsburgh, St. Scholastica, Bowdoin
Last Out: Amherst, Hamline, Williams

Giving us...

E1 Oswego
E2 Norwich
E3 Plattsburgh
E4 Middlebury
E5 Bowdoin
E6 Elmira
E7 Curry/Wentworth

W1 St. Norbert
W2 Gustavus Adolphus
W3 St. Scholastica
W4 Adrian


Bracket #1

Opening Round
E7 Curry/Wentworth at E2 Norwich
E6 Elmira at E3 Plattsburgh
E5 Bowdoin at E4 Middlebury

Quarterfinals

W4 Adrian at W1 St. Norbert
W3 St. Scholastica at W2 Gustavus Adolphus
Bowdoin/Middlebury at E1 Oswego
Elmira/Plattsburgh at Norwich/(Curry/Wentworth)


Bracket #2 (the "PrezdeJohnson" bracket)

W3 St. Scholastica at W2 Gustavus Adolphus
E7 Curry/Wentworth at E3 Plattsburgh
E5 Bowdoin at E4 Middlebury

Quarterfinals

GAC/CSS at W1 St. Norbert
(Curry/Wentworth)/Plattsburgh at E2 Norwich
Bowdoin/Middlebury at E1 Oswego
W4 Adrian at E6 Elmira
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Josh Carey said:
Bracket #2 (the "PrezdeJohnson" bracket)

W3 St. Scholastica at W2 Gustavus Adolphus
E7 Curry/Wentworth at E3 Plattsburgh
E5 Bowdoin at E4 Middlebury

Quarterfinals

GAC/CSS at W1 St. Norbert
(Curry/Wentworth)/Plattsburgh at E2 Norwich
Bowdoin/Middlebury at E1 Oswego
W4 Adrian at E6 Elmira
Click to expand...

I can dream right?;)

The chances of that bracket happening have to be next to none.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Here is my stab at the NCAA Rankings. FWIW, I ended up with the same exact tournament projection that Josh did.

First, here are the rankings that I came up with after my analysis.

East
1-Oswego
2-Norwich
3-Plattsburgh
4-Middlebury
5-Bowdoin
6-Amherst
7-Williams
8-Elmira
9-Trinity
10-Manhattanville
11-Hamilton
12-Fredonia
13-Curry
14-Neumann
15-Hobart

West
1-St. Norbert
2-Gustavus Adolphus
3-St. Scholastica
4-Hamline
5-Wis. River Falls
6-Adrian
7-St. Thomas

AQ's: Oswego, Norwich, St. Norbert, Middlebury, Gustavus Adolphus, Curry, Adrian

Pool B: Elmira

Pool C's: Plattsburgh, St. Scholastica, Bowdoin

Now, after looking at what the NCAA Rankings were last week, here is my guess as to how they will look this week.

East
1-Oswego
2-Norwich
3-Plattsburgh
4-Middlebury
5-Bowdoin
6-Amherst
7-Williams
8-Elmira
9-Manhattanville
10-Fredonia
11-Neumann
12-Trinity
13-Hamilton
14-Curry
15-Castleton

West
1-St. Norbert
2-Gustavus Adolphus
3-St. Scholastica
4-Hamline
5-Wis. River Falls
6-Adrian
7-St. Thomas

As you can see, I project the west to be the same as my calculations, reason being is Augsburg lost this week and St. Thomas edges them out in the criteria.

As for the East, well since Babson lost and fell below .500 I am assuming they are not eligible to be ranked. Even if they are, I doubt we see them. Even though I had them 20th in my ranking projection, look to see Castleton break through to that #15 spot. I'll let you all figure out why.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Josh Carey said:
Nobody really knows, but I think they look at primary criteria first then secondary criteria. With Pool C teams they are probably more inclined to jump into the secondary criteria though.


Current Projection

ECAC-East: Norwich
NESCAC: Middlebury
ECAC-Northeast: Curry/Wentworth, take your pick/winner of tomorrow's game.
SUNYAC: Oswego
NCHA: St. Norbert
MIAC: Gustavus Adolphus
MCHA: Adrian
Pool B: Elmira
Pool C: Plattsburgh, St. Scholastica, Bowdoin
Last Out: Amherst, Hamline, Williams

Giving us...

E1 Oswego
E2 Norwich
E3 Plattsburgh
E4 Middlebury
E5 Bowdoin
E6 Elmira
E7 Curry/Wentworth

W1 St. Norbert
W2 Gustavus Adolphus
W3 St. Scholastica
W4 Adrian


Bracket #1

Opening Round
E7 Curry/Wentworth at E2 Norwich
E6 Elmira at E3 Plattsburgh
E5 Bowdoin at E4 Middlebury

Quarterfinals

W4 Adrian at W1 St. Norbert
W3 St. Scholastica at W2 Gustavus Adolphus
Bowdoin/Middlebury at E1 Oswego
Elmira/Plattsburgh at Norwich/(Curry/Wentworth)


Bracket #2 (the "PrezdeJohnson" bracket)

W3 St. Scholastica at W2 Gustavus Adolphus
E7 Curry/Wentworth at E3 Plattsburgh
E5 Bowdoin at E4 Middlebury

Quarterfinals

GAC/CSS at W1 St. Norbert
(Curry/Wentworth)/Plattsburgh at E2 Norwich
Bowdoin/Middlebury at E1 Oswego
W4 Adrian at E6 Elmira
Click to expand...

Four byes for the west is totally bogus, especially given St. Scholastica's recent performance. This plan is *****

Excuse my rant, I know that competitive fairness is far less important than geographic proximity.

Seems to me that Adrian deserve a bye about as much as Curry/Wentworth do.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matt Rennell said:
East
4-Middlebury
5-Bowdoin
6-Amherst
7-Williams
Click to expand...

If there aren't any other upsets, it seems like these rankings are setting it up for the two finalists from the NESCAC to make the tournament as long as it is two of these four.

Do you think that seems true or no?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Artie12 said:
If there aren't any other upsets, it seems like these rankings are setting it up for the two finalists from the NESCAC to make the tournament as long as it is two of these four.

Do you think that seems true or no?
Click to expand...

No, not really. It could certainly happen that way, however in order for that to happen there really can not be any upsets and the NESCAC runner up would need to continue to beat out the 2nd Pool C contending team from the west. I.E. Hamline.

That said, provided all the other favorites win, Middlebury is likely in even if they lose next weekend.

Depending on what happens out west, there is certainly a chance, albeit slim, we could see 3 NESCAC teams in the NCAA's.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
Four byes for the west is totally bogus, especially given St. Scholastica's recent performance. This plan is *****

Excuse my rant, I know that competitive fairness is far less important than geographic proximity.

Seems to me that Adrian deserve a bye about as much as Curry/Wentworth do.
Click to expand...

Prof, show me a bracket that doesn't have two "Adrian-range" teams in the same region that keeps Adrian from flying before the final four with certainty and I'll incorporate it into my analysis. But it can't be done. Just think of it as retribution for the many, many years when what might have been the third or fourth overall seed had to play the first or second overall seed in the quarterfinals for the west to only send one team to the Final Four. As a Norwich fan, you're strongly rooting for Fredonia and Stevens Point, as that will even out the bracket.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Josh Carey said:
Prof, show me a bracket that doesn't have two "Adrian-range" teams in the same region that keeps Adrian from flying before the final four with certainty and I'll incorporate it into my analysis. But it can't be done. Just think of it as retribution for the many, many years when what might have been the third or fourth overall seed had to play the first or second overall seed in the quarterfinals for the west to only send one team to the Final Four. As a Norwich fan, you're strongly rooting for Fredonia and Stevens Point, as that will even out the bracket.
Click to expand...

I didn't think the others were any more fair. Geographic Proximity should be the very last consideration in determining matchups in a national tournament
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
I didn't think the others were any more fair. Geographic Proximity should be the very last consideration in determining matchups in a national tournament
Click to expand...

Academics is the NCAA's biggest concern, Geographic Proximity is for the sake of the DIII student athletes, the poor kids shouldn't have to endure long bus rides or flights just for the amusement of a few fans. Remember, these aren't gifted DI athletes, they are just one step above a club team, without any hope of a professional career. We can't expect them to handle school AND a legitmate bracket, the NCAA owes it to them to do their best to make the lives of these DIII student athletes as simple and low-stress as possible and can't possibly expect them to undertake the burden's of DI student athletes :rolleyes:
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

norm1909 said:
Money NCAA's biggest concern, Geographic Proximity is for the sake of the NCAA Budget the poor kids shouldn't have to endure long bus rides or flights just for the amusement of a few fans. Remember, these aren't gifted DI athletes who bring in all the cash, they are just one step above a club team, without any hope of a professional career. We can't afford to let them handle school AND a legitmate bracket, the NCAA owes it to them to do their best to make the lives of these DIII student athletes as simple and low-cost as possible and can't possibly expect them to eat into the billions of dollars that DI student athletes bring into the NCAA coffers:p
Click to expand...

Fixed your post :)
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
I didn't think the others were any more fair. Geographic Proximity should be the very last consideration in determining matchups in a national tournament
Click to expand...

Is it even conceivable that a neutral DIII site be a consideration to facilitate the Geographic Proximity requirement to maintain the integrity of the bracket in early rounds of the tournament ? I know it would mean deserving team would lose a home gate...but possible ,or plausible ??
 
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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NorthernLite said:
Is it even conceivable that a neutral DIII site be a consideration to facilitate the Geographic Proximity requirement to maintain the integrity of the bracket in early rounds of the tournament ? I know it would mean deserving team would lose a home gate...but possible ,or plausible ??
Click to expand...

At first glance it doesn't sound possible.

Would increase expenses for the NCAA (two teams driving, rent a rink, etc.) and decrease revenue (for D3 hockey not as many people would be at a neutral site game as a game on campus)

It would be great for fairnesses sake, but that means little to the NCAA.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NorthernLite said:
Is it even conceivable that a neutral DIII site be a consideration to facilitate the Geographic Proximity requirement to maintain the integrity of the bracket in early rounds of the tournament ? I know it would mean deserving team would lose a home gate...but possible ,or plausible ??
Click to expand...

Possible, sure. Plausible, no. That would cost $$ for the NCAA to rent a neutral facility. I'm sure that the idea of not having to pay as much is what is really behind the nascent move back to campus sites. Why pay rent when the home team is just going to be thrilled to host and have home ice advantage? Never underestimate the NCAA's desire to keep its money away from the hands of the DIII programs.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
Possible, sure. Plausible, no. That would cost $$ for the NCAA to rent a neutral facility. I'm sure that the idea of not having to pay as much is what is really behind the nascent move back to campus sites. Why pay rent when the home team is just going to be thrilled to host and have home ice advantage? Never underestimate the NCAA's desire to keep its money away from the hands of the DIII programs.
Click to expand...

Lots of ifs ..but here goes anyway.
If for example SNC holds serve in the NCHA and if CSS received a Pool C and if Adrian had the AQ. ......wouldn't it make sense to have SNC host an Adrian CSS game...and play the winner ? I can't imagine this would be a cost prohibitive thing for the NCAA.

Just thinking this would be a better alternative than requiring a potentially high seed to pay an extra game because they may be more conveniently situated geographically.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

And what would you do with the MIAC AQ?



NorthernLite said:
Lots of ifs ..but here goes anyway.
If for example SNC holds serve in the NCHA and if CSS received a Pool C and if Adrian had the AQ. ......wouldn't it make sense to have SNC host an Adrian CSS game...and play the winner ? I can't imagine this would be a cost prohibitive thing for the NCAA.

Just thinking this would be a better alternative than requiring a potentially high seed to pay an extra game because they may be more conveniently situated geographically.
Click to expand...
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I wonder if the NCAA will wiggle at all (if say Elmira isn't in) on the 500 mile rule when it comes to Adrian. The geography of a team in southeastern Michigan is something that didn't exist when that guideline was written. As it was there were two distinctive regions but Adrian's location starts to blur the East-West line and could conceivably render that guideline as obsolete and archaic.

Of course, it's the type of situation a little foresight and common sense can easily deal with, which is precisely why I'm sure the beancounters aren't even aware of the inconveniences (relative to their paleozoic era rules) expansion into a state like Michigan might cause.

All that said, keep an eye on Marian...
 
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