The definitive tournament speculation thread

[one_to7]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I definitely knew this. Because I had the same questions. Think I talked to a coach about it, but I remember the league office being useful when I needed to talk to them, so I'd recommend giving them a quick call tomorrow to sort things out. Then tell the rest of us.

Will do, because there's a very good chance there'll be at least 1 tie after next week. I doubt it'll leave anyone on the outside of the playoffs, but the most likely one is st olaf and st thomas, who split with each other. And have the same win % against gustavus and hamline (0-2-2 vs. 1-3-0).

St thomas would have a better miac record, but the way tiebreaker #3 works, that might not mean anything.

 

[Hammer]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I'm amazed that the conference doesn't use total conference victories as a tiebreaker. Usually from what I've seen in the past that's one of the first tiebreakers used by most conferences.

 

[CardsFan91]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Question: If Plattsburgh wins the AQ and has its record stand at 19-4-4...won't they pretty much stay in third in the East regardless? Oswego has almost wrapped up the #1 spot in the region while it would take a meltdown from Norwich (cough, last year's conference tourny opener) for Plattsburgh to move up. Right? Also, what would it take for the Cardinals to host a Quarterfinal game and have the bye for the play-in round?

 

[one_to7]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Question: If Plattsburgh wins the AQ and has its record stand at 19-4-4...won't they pretty much stay in third in the East regardless? Oswego has almost wrapped up the #1 spot in the region while it would take a meltdown from Norwich (cough, last year's conference tourny opener) for Plattsburgh to move up. Right? Also, what would it take for the Cardinals to host a Quarterfinal game and have the bye for the play-in round?

Well with Elmira dropping down lately, plattsburgh has a good shot for the third seed. Even beating Oswego won't push the cards past the lakers (as long as Oswego wins both games this weekend), since the lakers would still hold head to head and win %. I doubt SOS would push plattsburgh over oswego by itself, and I have no idea what each team's record against ranked teams will be.

Hosting a QF and skipping the play in round is entirely up to how the NCAA committee doles out the play in games. They could all be in the east, all be in the west, or some combination thereof. I doubt we'll have any idea until the field is announced.

 

[Stormy8174]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Whatever......I just wanted to show off my 1987 Championship Puck!

You could always say that you saw Oswego lose 8-3 to a ghost team...that would look worse for Oswego then losing to Plattsburgh.

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I just went through my computer rankings to get a rough cut at what the Pool B situation was, and then went to the PWC. I found it verrrrrry interesting.

In my rankings, the top three are Elmira, Manhattanville, and Fitchburg
Elmira still leads Manhattanville, and when you look at the PWC, Elmira still edges out Manhattanville and Fitchburg. Here's what's interesting.

In my computer rankings, there is not a statistically significant difference between Manhattanville and Fitchburg, so again I went to look at the comparisons, and I found right now Fitchburg actually wins more comparisons than Manhattanville. This suggests a doomsday scenario in which through the playoffs and next weekend M'ville and Elmira beat each other up, Fitchburg could sneak in and take Pool B. That could mean no ECAC West team at the party.

Otherwise here's my Seedings Prediction (Against my better judgement, let's give the NESCAC to Bowdoin (If they don't win and Midd does, Amherst could scarf up the last Pool C)

Pool A
Norwich
Curry
GAC
Adrian
SNC
Bowdoin
Oswego

Pool B
Elmira

Pool C
St. Scholasitca (first in)
Plattsburgh
Middlebury

Seeds

E1 Oswego
E2 Norwich
E3 Plattsburgh
E4 Middlebury
E5 Bowdoin
E6 Elmira
E7 Curry

W1 SNC
W2 STS
W3 GAC
W4 Adrian

Watch out, with Elmira's free fall, things are getting weird.

 

[mazile]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Here's what's interesting.

In my computer rankings, there is not a statistically significant difference between Manhattanville and Fitchburg, so again I went to look at the comparisons, and I found right now Fitchburg actually wins more comparisons than Manhattanville. This suggests a doomsday scenario in which through the playoffs and next weekend M'ville and Elmira beat each other up, Fitchburg could sneak in and take Pool B. That could mean no ECAC West team at the party.

The personalities in the room will prevent Fitchburg from getting a pool B – even if Fitchburg has the best numbers "in the room" Despite the NCAA's written criteria, they still need to get enough people to say yes.

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

The personalities in the room will prevent Fitchburg from getting a pool B – even if Fitchburg has the best numbers "in the room" Despite the NCAA's written criteria, they still need to get enough people to say yes.

The reality is that Manhattanville's NC schedule this year was horrible. Their OWP and OOWP don't deserve any kind of at large bid. I would guess that if Elmira can win 2 of the 3 upcoming games (including a potential ECAC W tournament game) with M'ville that Elmira will be okay. If they go 2-1 or 1-2 Fitchburg should get a look. You are right, they probably won't, because the committee gets to use whatever weights they want. Make the process objective and we won't have to deal with conspiracy theories every year.

 

[valliant defender]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Since it is all "speculation" and opinion I would like to know how Manhattanville does not get any respect or consideration in any post ever given that they have the:

all time NCAA record 17 straight road game victories (currently ongoing)

incredible 22 game unbeaten road streak (last loss is to Neuman in it's magical national championship run last year)

have only two non-conference losses in last four years!

finished runner-up to Elmira in ECACW 2009 season by a single point

and currently have lost only one game in last fourteen (to the reigning national champs Neuman by a single goal).

 

[spwood]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Since it is all "speculation" and opinion I would like to know how Manhattanville does not get any respect or consideration in any post ever given that they have the:

all time NCAA record 17 straight road game victories (currently ongoing)

incredible 22 game unbeaten road streak (last loss is to Neuman in it's magical national championship run last year)

have only two non-conference losses in last four years!

finished runner-up to Elmira in ECACW 2009 season by a single point

and currently have lost only one game in last fourteen (to the reigning national champs Neuman by a single goal).

Buff State?
Geneseo?
Becker?
Assumption?
Cortland?
Nichols?
Morrisville?

Those are your non-conference road games. Not exactly a murderer's row of D-III talent.

The only decent non-conference games were against Curry and Williams...both at home....and both losses.

Sorry, that schedule doesn't deserve a lot of respect....

(By the way, welcome to the board. Manhattanville needs a voice in this forum...)

 

[SB in the 'Seo]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Since it is all "speculation" and opinion I would like to know how Manhattanville does not get any respect or consideration in any post ever given that they have the:

all time NCAA record 17 straight road game victories (currently ongoing)

incredible 22 game unbeaten road streak (last loss is to Neuman in it's magical national championship run last year)

have only two non-conference losses in last four years!

finished runner-up to Elmira in ECACW 2009 season by a single point

and currently have lost only one game in last fourteen (to the reigning national champs Neuman by a single goal).

Welcome to the boards, BTW.

I wouldn't say they're not getting any respect, I mean people are pretty clearly saying they are at least on the bubble currently and can probably get in by winning the ECAC W.

The thread is the tournament speculation thread so this thread consists of posts that (95% of the time) are unbiased and based on the numbers that are used to determine who will be selected for the tournament.

The facts that you have listed - while interesting - are not relevant to the tournament selection process.

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Since it is all "speculation" and opinion I would like to know how Manhattanville does not get any respect or consideration in any post ever given that they have the:

all time NCAA record 17 straight road game victories (currently ongoing)

incredible 22 game unbeaten road streak (last loss is to Neuman in it's magical national championship run last year)

have only two non-conference losses in last four years!

finished runner-up to Elmira in ECACW 2009 season by a single point

and currently have lost only one game in last fourteen (to the reigning national champs Neuman by a single goal).

When you play in the ECAC West, but your OWP is in the same territory as teams from the MASCAC, and ECAC NE, you are playing a really horrible NC schedule. Manhattanville used to play a decent NC schedule, but not this year.

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

The facts that you have listed - while interesting - are not relevant to the tournament selection process.

Exactly my thoughts when reading his post.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I'm amazed that the conference doesn't use total conference victories as a tiebreaker. Usually from what I've seen in the past that's one of the first tiebreakers used by most conferences.

The SUNYAC does (as a second tie-breaker) thanks to a commentary I wrote a few years back. Before that, they did not.

 

[polarbearfan]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Otherwise here's my Seedings Prediction (Against my better judgement, let's give the NESCAC to Bowdoin (If they don't win and Midd does, Amherst could scarf up the last Pool C)

I understand Bowdoin has had some struggles in the past in post season play but come on guys. They still are in first place in the NESCAC and have been one of the hottest teams in the country as of late (8-1-1) in their last 10 and the only blemishes were on the road against Williams and Midd. Not to mention that their now number 1 goalie (finally ) Rossi (10-0-1) is the only undefeated netminder besides Gunn-Taylor from Oswego this season.

Where is the Polar Bear love people??

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I just went through my computer rankings to get a rough cut at what the Pool B situation was, and then went to the PWC. I found it verrrrrry interesting.

In my rankings, the top three are Elmira, Manhattanville, and Fitchburg

I almost went off, but then saw you mentioned Pool B, not Pool C. I can see this. I just caution against the "total comparisons" metric without further investigation. Let's say you have

Team A
WIN: .7500
OWP: .5600
OOP: .5200
COP: 3-3-0

Team B

WIN: .7600
OWP: .4400
OOP: .5205
COP: 2-2-0

Team B wins "the overall comparison" 2-1-1, but the committee would assuredly say that Team B's strong WIN% is offset by their weak schedule and Team A is ahead in the criteria.

Since it is all "speculation" and opinion I would like to know how Manhattanville does not get any respect or consideration

In the third post of this thread, I listed Manhattanville in the tournament. In my latest projection, I mentioned them as the second Pool B team. They are getting consideration and plenty of respect. And lest you think I'm biased against them, I voted them #1 in the preseason national poll. So they are getting their due.

I understand you're new, so I'd recommend you go back and read the first post of the thread discussing how teams are selected to the NCAA Tournament.

Right now this is how Manhattanville stacks up:
WIN 0.7500 0
OWP 0.4435 0
OOP 0.5114 0

The winning percentage is around the range of at large consideration. But the strength of schedule at .4435 is very low for Pool C consideration. Usually that needs to be in the range of .5300-.5600 to get an at-large bid. Some of this is poor scheduling on M'ville's part, some of it is things they couldn't control (Hobart, Neumann, Geneseo being worse than expected). The combination means they very legitimately may need to sweep Elmira this weekend to make the tournament. No disrespect, just trying to be fair and give you a reasonable expectation of where your team stands.

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

the only blemishes were on the road against Williams and Midd.

Both teams they'll have to beat to get the at-large nod. I did consider Bowdoin strongly when looking at my last Pool C comparisons, and they just don't stack up in the criteria yet, despite their current standing in the conference. So I'm going to remain skeptical for the time being.

 

[Matt Rennell]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

For what it's worth, here is what I came up with for rankings, which will be announced tomorrow. Now, let me make this clear, this is not what I am predicting them to be, as history has shown the committees to do some "funny" stuff in the rankings. These are merely what I would rank them based on the criteria the NCAA uses

East
1- Oswego
2- Norwich
3- Plattsburgh
4- Middlebury
5- Bowdoin
6- Amherst
7- Trinity
8- Elmira
9- Williams
10- Hamilton
11- Fitchburg St.
12- Wentworth
13- Colby
14- Manhattanville
15- Curry

Just missing the cut: Fredonia, Hobart, Tufts, and Neumann.

West
1- St. Norbert
2- St. Scholastica
3- Hamline
4- Gustavus Adolphus
5- Wis. River Falls
6- Adrian
7- St. Thomas

Just missing the cut: Marian, St. Olaf, Augsburg.

That said, assuming the favorites win their conference tourneys, here is what we would be looking at for the NCAA field.

AQ's: Oswego, Norwich, Middlebury, Curry, St. Norbert, Gustavus Adolphus, and Adrian.

Pool B: Elmira

Pool C: Plattsburgh, St. Scholastica, and Hamline.

Which gives us...

East
1- Oswego
2- Norwich
3- Plattsburgh
4- Middlebury
5- Elmira
6- Curry

West
1- St. Norbert
2- St. Scholastica
3- Gustavus Adolphus
4- Hamline (GAC moves ahead of Hamline due to winning the AQ over them)
5- Adrian

Obviously, a number of different scenarios can take place, however with this field here is what I expect to take place.

Play-ins
Curry @ Plattsburgh
Elmira @ Middlebury
Hamline @ Gustavus Adolphus

NCAA Quarterfinals
Adrian @ St. Norbert
Hamline/GAC winner @ St. Scholastica
Curry/Plattsburgh winner @ Norwich
Elmira/Middlebury winner @ Oswego

The reason Adrian is not in a play-in out west is because the only team they could travel to without flying is St. Norbert. They also can't be sent to Elmira because if they won, they would have to be flown to Oswego per the NCAA "map".

There you have it, let's see how close it is to the actual rankings.

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Scenario that saves us all a headache: Stevens Point wins the NCHA conference Playoffs. SNC gets Pool C, probably at the expense of Hamline. Adrian plays Point, winner plays at SNC.

The scary part about this is, Point would probably travel to Adrian in this scenario.

Assuming favorites win, except the NCHA, this gives us (the rest of this is based on Matt's work above):

East
1- Oswego
2- Norwich
3- Plattsburgh
4- Middlebury
5- Elmira
6- Curry

West
1- St. Norbert
2- St. Scholastica
3- Gustavus Adolphus
5- Adrian
6- Stevens Point

Thus we have:

Play-ins
Curry @ Plattsburgh
Elmira @ Middlebury
Point@ Adrian

NCAA Quarterfinals
Point/Adrian @ St. Norbert
Gustavus Adolphus @ St. Scholastica
Curry/Plattsburgh winner @ Norwich
Elmira/Middlebury winner @ Oswego


Now, do I expect this to happen? No. But it would be interesting to see, and it would make everybody's heads hurt that much less.

 

[nysportsfan29]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Play-ins
Curry @ Plattsburgh
Elmira @ Middlebury
Hamline @ Gustavus Adolphus

NCAA Quarterfinals
Adrian @ St. Norbert
Hamline/GAC winner @ St. Scholastica
Curry/Plattsburgh winner @ Norwich
Elmira/Middlebury winner @ Oswego

The reason Adrian is not in a play-in out west is because the only team they could travel to without flying is St. Norbert. They also can't be sent to Elmira because if they won, they would have to be flown to Oswego per the NCAA "map".

There you have it, let's see how close it is to the actual rankings.

If that happens it would really be too bad that Adrian would get a 1st round bye to St. Norbert as they are not only the lowest seed out West, but potentially in the entire tournament. I am wondering what would be more "fair": to give Adrian (perhaps the least deserving team) a bye into the quarters or making St. Norbert (one of the most deserving teams of a bye) play a play-in game.

EDIT: Upon further review it looks as if St. Norbert isn't just one of the most, but the most deserving of a bye. There is only one team they haven't "beaten" in the Comparison Rankings. That team is Hamline (a little surprising; only a little).

Now these rankings will certainly be updated when the NCAA poll is released, but for now I have answered my own question - it would be much more unfair to make St. Norbert play before the Quarters.

Is it at all likely that the East will have 3 of the 5 byes at this point? I'm assuming the likely scenario would involve Plattsburgh winning out and someone other than St. Norbert or CSS getting the NCHA AQ and/or someone other than Hamline or GAC getting the MIAC AQ.