Josh Carey
Stats Guy
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread
Difficult to do this without hard PWR numbers, but I'll give it a go....
I'm leaning towards no. it will come down to whoever has won the season series between Oswego and Plattsburgh. My theory on this is that unlike in previous years, there is no parity in the SUNYAC this year. Aside from Fredonia, nobody besides those two teams is above .500. And Fredonia has played a bunch of scrubs and lost to every good team they've played, so they're not as good as their record indicates. Since we've seen in year's past that SOS is weighted heavily, the SUNYAC's poor showing this year means it's a two-bid conference.
That being said, for that exact reason, Oswego and Plattsburgh will be playing each other in the SUNYAC final.
The NESCAC is kicking the crap out of the ECAC-E so far. Norwich is the only ECAC-E team above .500 right now. So another case of a terrible SOS being possible. I'd say a four-loss Norwich team probably doesn't make it. Three or fewer, they have a shot, but I wouldn't be confident. Like the SUNYAC though, no reason they shouldn't win their tournament.
There is no reason to think the ECAC-West is locked in as a two bid conference this year. It will come down to specific comparisons in your question, so it's difficult to say at this point. Norwich is ahead of Plattsburgh based on H2H, so would you take CSS over Plattsburgh? It's not as easy a call as you might think, and at this very moment, I might lean towards CSS.
Depends how strong a case the league champion has. If it's Hobart or Utica? Elmira *should* get Pool B.
How many total western teams are there, and how many of them are within traveling distance of Adrian? I'm going to try to get an "Adrian matrix" on how their arrival on the scene can make the E/W split different based on various potential outcomes. But just as an example, if there are no western at large bids, and Adrian can't travel to the other two western teams, they'll get sent to Oswego or Elmira. I would also very much love for no teams within 500 miles of Adrian to make the tournament, as then Adrian would have to fly somewhere.
Difficult to do this without hard PWR numbers, but I'll give it a go....
(a) Oswego and Plattsburgh do not win the SUNYAC. Do 3 SUNYAC teams make the tournament?
I'm leaning towards no. it will come down to whoever has won the season series between Oswego and Plattsburgh. My theory on this is that unlike in previous years, there is no parity in the SUNYAC this year. Aside from Fredonia, nobody besides those two teams is above .500. And Fredonia has played a bunch of scrubs and lost to every good team they've played, so they're not as good as their record indicates. Since we've seen in year's past that SOS is weighted heavily, the SUNYAC's poor showing this year means it's a two-bid conference.
That being said, for that exact reason, Oswego and Plattsburgh will be playing each other in the SUNYAC final.
(b) Norwich does not win the ECAC-E. Does Norwich make the tournament?
The NESCAC is kicking the crap out of the ECAC-E so far. Norwich is the only ECAC-E team above .500 right now. So another case of a terrible SOS being possible. I'd say a four-loss Norwich team probably doesn't make it. Three or fewer, they have a shot, but I wouldn't be confident. Like the SUNYAC though, no reason they shouldn't win their tournament.
(c) Gotteramdung scenario - both (a) and (b) happen. Are the Pool C teams Oswego, Plattsburgh and Norwich which screws the West, and maybe the ECAC-W?
There is no reason to think the ECAC-West is locked in as a two bid conference this year. It will come down to specific comparisons in your question, so it's difficult to say at this point. Norwich is ahead of Plattsburgh based on H2H, so would you take CSS over Plattsburgh? It's not as easy a call as you might think, and at this very moment, I might lean towards CSS.
Ooh, one scenario to append to situation (c): say the ECAC-W continues to have a down season outside of Elmira, and Pool C is indeed flooded with upsets from other conferences. If Elmira also loses in the ECAC-W tournament, does the NCAA dare award them Pool B rather than the conference champion (particularly in light of what Neumann did with their unlikely ECAC-W run last season)?
Depends how strong a case the league champion has. If it's Hobart or Utica? Elmira *should* get Pool B.
(d) Western Gotteramdung - #1 seeds do not win the NCHA or MIAC tournaments, but Adrian wins the MCHA - where will Adrian go then?
How many total western teams are there, and how many of them are within traveling distance of Adrian? I'm going to try to get an "Adrian matrix" on how their arrival on the scene can make the E/W split different based on various potential outcomes. But just as an example, if there are no western at large bids, and Adrian can't travel to the other two western teams, they'll get sent to Oswego or Elmira. I would also very much love for no teams within 500 miles of Adrian to make the tournament, as then Adrian would have to fly somewhere.