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The definitive tournament speculation thread

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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Matthew Webb said:
Seeing Middlebury's all-time performance is always enough to astound me. 34-6-2 in hockey is ridiculously good, period, no less in the NCAA tournament. Almost unimaginable.
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And here's another fun one: Middlebury lost more tourney games during their 5-title run (1, to St. Norbert in their '99 quarterfinal series) than they did the year they were finally eliminated (0, Plattsburgh beat them in OT of a minigame after two straight ties).
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Oh, and if you'll forgive the double-post, one more while it's fresh in my mind: in 1995, Plattsburgh became the first team ever eliminated by Middlebury from the NCAA tournament; five Panther championships later, Plattsburgh became the first team ever to eliminate Middlebury from the NCAA tournament.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Time to revive this thread and get some discussion going again. Noting that USCHO hasn't put up any raw data/PWR yet, this is more heavily involved in guesswork than usual, but here's a bracket projection.

ECAC-East: Norwich
ECAC-Northeast: Curry
NESCAC: Amherst
SUNYAC: Oswego
MIAC: Gustavus Adolphus
MCHA: Adrian
NCHA: St. Norbert
Pool B: Elmira
Pool C: Williams
Pool C: St. Scholastica
Pool C: Plattsburgh
Last Three Out: Manhattanville, Middlebury, Hamline

Seedings

E1 Norwich*
E2 Oswego*
E3 Elmira
E4 Amherst
E5 Williams
E6 Plattsburgh
E7 Curry

W1 St. Norbert
W2 St. Scholastica
W3 Gustavus Adolphus
W4 Adrian

* There's been two suggestions to me Oswego should edge Norwich. I see the merit. Incidentally, it changes nothing in Field 2 and they can just be switched in Field 1. I've left the post unedited other than this blurb.

Field One

E7 Curry at E2 Oswego
E6 Plattsburgh at E3 Elmira
E5 Williams at E4 Amherst

E4/E5 at Norwich
E3/E6 at E7/E2
Adrian at St. Norbert
Gustavus at St. Scholastica


Field Two

W4 Adrian at E3 Elmira
W3 Gustavus at W2 St. Shcolastica
E7 Curry at E6 Plattsburgh

W2/W3 at St. Norbert
W4/E3 at Oswego
E7/E6 at Norwich
E5 Williams at E4 Amherst


Observations:

- Elmira is screwed. With Adrian or without Adrian, they are playing on Wednesday. The good news is barring two or three losses to Manhattanville, they should be in the tournament. But they shouldn't be surprised at another opening round home game. If they play Adrian, they are probably getting punished despite their seed because of the 500 mile rule.

- The NESCAC is a mess. Can Williams keep their current pace? Will Middlebury make a run and screw everything up? Will those teams beat each other up enough to knock the league ack down to one bid?

- Can the SUNYAC get three teams in? Probably not, because of the aforementioned NESCAC issues and how Plattsburgh has fared against some of those teams.

- How easy will it be to predict the field? I'm thinking very. Parity is down this year, so the teams listed above are pretty much all your tournament candidates. Tournament upsets would make it even easier. Where teams go? An entirely different issue...
 
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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Josh Carey said:
- Can the SUNYAC get three teams in? Probably not, because of the aforementioned NESCAC issues and how Plattsburgh has fared against some of those teams.
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:confused: Plattsburgh is 2-0-1 against the NESCAC and could end up 3-0-1 outscoring them 13-2 so far. :confused:
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Josh,

anyway Elmira can avoid having to play Adrian and Oswego even if they are the #2 seed? If the only other team they could play after that is Norwich. Then they are getting screwed. Especially if they are the #2 seed.

No chance of Adrian getting sent west to play SNC and having a 2-2 split again?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Does the NCAA want to avoid intraconference matchups in the 1st round (Wilimans / Amherst)?? If they flip Plattsburgh and Amherst, then the problem is fixed.

Secondary criteria -- will SNC lose CoP to any Eastern club based on the loss to Salem St.? It should not kill them, but it may causes some hearburn.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
Josh,

anyway Elmira can avoid having to play Adrian and Oswego even if they are the #2 seed? If the only other team they could play after that is Norwich. Then they are getting screwed. Especially if they are the #2 seed.

No chance of Adrian getting sent west to play SNC and having a 2-2 split again?
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Derek, that's Josh's Field 1, which will be unfair to either Norwich or Oswego. (Not that fairness is the NCAA's strength - but to have Either the #1 or #2 team in the nation not having a first round bye, when 4 lower ranked teams in the (mid)West get first round byes simply because they are in the (mid)West is unfair.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

joecct said:
Does the NCAA want to avoid intraconference matchups in the 1st round (Wilimans / Amherst)?? If they flip Plattsburgh and Amherst, then the problem is fixed.
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Neumann played at Elmira before going on to Plattsburgh last year, and Stout played either Superior or Scholastica, I don't remember which. So no, the NCAA does not appear to be concerned with avoiding intra-conference match-ups in the first round or the quarterfinals.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

joecct said:
Does the NCAA want to avoid intraconference matchups in the 1st round (Wilimans / Amherst)?? If they flip Plattsburgh and Amherst, then the problem is fixed.
Click to expand...

Not only do they not care, if they make the travel better wrt the 500 mile rule, they will adjust the seeds towards rather than away from them.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
Not only do they not care, if they make the travel better wrt the 500 mile rule, they will adjust the seeds towards rather than away from them.
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OK, throw that idea out the window.

But I still think Plattsburgh > Williams. However, they need to solve the goaltender problem before March rolls around.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

joecct said:
OK, throw that idea out the window.

But I still think Plattsburgh > Williams. However, they need to solve the goaltender problem before March rolls around.
Click to expand...

IIRC, The NCAA instructs the commitee to avoid intraconference matchups IF and only if they stay with-in the 500 mile travel requirement and can keep bracket integrity.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong...Josh or Webb I'm sure are better versed on this but I thought I remember hearing something to this effect in previous years.

(Bracket integrity is a joke when it comes to D-III hockey anyways...the only thing that matters is $$$ and they'll see the bracket accordingly to make it the cheapest.)
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
IIRC, The NCAA instructs the commitee to avoid intraconference matchups IF and only if they stay with-in the 500 mile travel requirement and can keep bracket integrity.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong...Josh or Webb I'm sure are better versed on this but I thought I remember hearing something to this effect in previous years.

(Bracket integrity is a joke when it comes to D-III hockey anyways...the only thing that matters is $$$ and they'll see the bracket accordingly to make it the cheapest.)
Click to expand...

As far as bracket integrity is concerned, the only thing that bothers me is giving teams an extra game to play on during the week before the quarters. There are 5 byes, and it should be the case that the 5 byes go to the 5 highest ranked teams, regardless of location. I don't particularly mind if 1 and 2 play in the quarters, because eventually they should meet. It makes the Frozzen Four (I put an extra z in there so as to preserve the NCAA trademark) anticlimatic, but the reality is if 1 can't beat 2 in the quarters, they probably couldn't beat them in the finals either. Having to play extra games isn't fair. Teams have earned something by their reg season play
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

joecct said:
Secondary criteria -- will SNC lose CoP to any Eastern club based on the loss to Salem St.? It should not kill them, but it may causes some hearburn.
Click to expand...

Probably some eastern club, yes. The only thing it might affect, however, is how the semifinals are set up by changing if SNC is the #1, #2 or #3 overall seed. SNC should still be the #1 west seed no matter what. If you're talking about a scenario in which SNC loses the NCHA and then is in Pool C consideration, I still doubt it would change SNC getting a Pool C bid (even if Norwich and Oswego lose their conference, SNC should get in as well).

joecct said:
But I still think Plattsburgh > Williams. However, they need to solve the goaltender problem before March rolls around.
Click to expand...

Plattsburgh is almost assuredly a better team than Williams right now. I'm just not convinced they beat Williams in the criteria. That will probably change in the next week and a half and all will be right with the world.

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
IIRC, The NCAA instructs the commitee to avoid intraconference matchups IF and only if they stay with-in the 500 mile travel requirement and can keep bracket integrity.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong...Josh or Webb I'm sure are better versed on this but I thought I remember hearing something to this effect in previous years.
Click to expand...

I don't recall anything about restricting intraconference matchups in any reading of NCAA instructions I've done in the past. Indeed, I'm inclined to agree with NUProf that from the NCAA's perspective, they're actually preferred in a sense because of the 500 mile rule.
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Now, after this last weekend, my take on things. Since we don't have the NCAA rankings to help us, I'm going to use my computer rankings for the Pool B and Pool C slots because I've tried to incorporate much of the NCAA criteria into my calculations. I'll give the Pool A positions to the team currently on top of the league standings in each case.

Pool A

Norwich (ECAC-E)
Curry (ECAC-NE)
Amherst (NESCAC)
Oswego (SUNYAC)
St. Norbert (NCHA)
Gustavus (MIAC)
Adrian (MCHA)

Pool B

Elmira

Pool C


St. Scholastica
Plattsburgh
Middlebury

Sweeping the Maine duo really brought the Panthers back into it


Seedings

E1 Oswego
E2 Norwich
E3 Plattsburgh
E4 Elmira
E5 Amherst
E6 Middlebury
E7 Curry

W1 St. Norbert
W2 St. Scholastica
W3 Gustavus
W4 Adrian


Adrian in the West Bracket

Opening Round

E7 Curry at E2 Norwich
E6 Middlebury at E3 Elmira
E5 Amherst at E4 Plattsburgh

Quarterfinals

Amherst/Plattsburgh at E1 Oswego
Midd/Elmira at Curry/Norwich
W4 Adrian at W1 SNC
W3 Gustavus at W2 CSS


Adrian Sent East Bracket (which I think should happen, because of the fact that it doesn't make sense to give first round byes to Gustavus and Adrian. In an ideal world, CSS probably merits one, but this bracket gives the bye that CSS deserves to Amherst, which is still less egregious than giving byes that Norwich and Plattsburgh deserve to Adrian and Gustavus)

Opening Round

W4 Adrian at E3 Elmira
E7 Curry at E6 Middlebury
W3 Gustavus at W2 CSS

Quarterfinals

Adrian/Elmira at E1 Oswego
Gustavus/CSS at W1 SNC
Curry/Midd at E2 Norwich
Amherst at E3 Plattsburgh


This is my take - as the guy on WPTZ says "that's my opinion, what's yours?"
 
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Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

NUProf said:
Seedings

E1 Oswego
E2 Norwich
E3 Plattsburgh
E4 Elmira
E5 Amherst
E6 Middlebury
E7 Curry

W1 St. Norbert
W2 St. Scholastica
W3 Gustavus
W4 Adrian


Adrian in the West Bracket

Opening Round

E7 Curry at E2 Norwich
E6 Middlebury at E3 Elmira
E5 Amherst at E4 Plattsburgh

Quarterfinals

Amherst/Plattsburgh at Oswego
Midd/Elmira at Curry/Norwich
Adrian at SNC
Gustavus at CSS
Click to expand...

Good stuff Prof. Quick question, did you mean to switch the seedings of Elmira and Plattsburgh (seedings has Platty at 3, game has them at 4)?
 
Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

93GreatLaker said:
Good stuff Prof. Quick question, did you mean to switch the seedings of Elmira and Plattsburgh (seedings has Platty at 3, game has them at 4)?
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I messed up the Adrian in the West Bracket a bit. :( ELM and PLT should swap opponents there. It's okay - next week will be different. And then Quarterfinal pairings would change, too. (Read first, then post)

I think/hope that the Adrian in the East scenario is what happens, and I do have that one right.
 
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