Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS 2012-13: Clawing our way up the standings in the 2nd half
Re: >>>>> RIT TIGERS 2012-13: Clawing our way up the standings in the 2nd half
Hey, quick question. How do the playoffs work? I know we are not getting a bye but what does RIT have to do to get home ice all the way to the BCA?
Actually, I suspect winning out would allow RIT to capture that first round bye, as unbelievable as that sounds considering the start of the season (and even recent disappointing home efforts vs UConn and Bentley). Only 5 teams can at best keep pace with RIT, and UConn could only tie by also winning out. If UConn wins out (possible since they have Army and Sacred Heart remaining), they still finish behind us unless there is a 3 way tie for that position. Even there I don't think we could finish 3rd in any 3 way tiebreak (maybe against a Holy Cross/UConn combo...but Holy Cross is likely in a bye spot with 6 games left against the bottom 3 teams in the conference)
Both AF and Mercyhurst play Niagara - if Mercyhurst drops more than 2 points to Niagara and Robert Morris in their 4 games OR Air Force drops 2 points to Niagara in the last weekend - we finish ahead of them and barring Holy Cross falling apart and UConn winning out (an
extremely unlikely scenario, IMO) that would also clinch a bye. Mercyhurst actually only has to drop 1 point - any 3 way tie involving Mercyhurst ends with us ahead of them.
According to
http://www.playoffstatus.com/atlantichockey/atlanticstandings.html , if we win out the worst we can finish is sixth. That means we need help to finish higher than sixth.
That site estimates our chances of a first-round bye at 20%; a first-round home series at 63%.
Powers &8^]
I'm not sure that site takes into account Atlantic Hockey's tiebreakers. If they are the same as the first year this playoff format was used, the only possible way RIT could win out and finish 6th is through a HC/UConn/RIT tiebreak, and even there the rules aren't clear whether or not all 3 teams are evaluated at the same time (In which case we would be 6th, with HC 4th and UConn 5th), or if they figure out who ranks first in the tiebreak than examines the remaining two teams seperately (in which case we would finish 5th with UConn 6th and there would be no possible way that I could see that we could win out and still finish 6th).
With HC's remaining schedule, it actually seems like RIT should root for them since they are the lone team that can cause RIT trouble with tiebreaks since we went 0-1-1 against them. Give them one of the 4 byes, and if we take care of buisness this weekend we'll be 1 point behind AF and 2 behind Mercyhurst only needing to tie Mercyhurst or pass AF (or tie them if UConn drops a point) to capture the bye. (EDIT: RIT would win a AF/UConn/RIT 3 way tiebreak if ties are broken inside pods first regardless)
EDIT: If the tiebreaker takes place between teams inside their own pods before crossing over (ie if Holy Cross/UConn/RIT end up tied, they break the Holy Cross/UConn tie first) then Holy Cross would beat UConn, then beat RIT, then RIT would beat UConn for the 5th spot. I see no way that RIT can win out and still finish 6th. They would win every tiebreaker with Western schools that could end up tied with them (2-1 vs both AF and Mercyhurst) and they beat UConn on goal differential when they cross over pods. It also means that rooting for HC isn't necessary, as the only tiebreak we could be involved with them is head to head (which they would win) - they can't mess up a multi-team tiebreak involving us and another western team (or another eastern team, for that matter)
