Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

[Hammer]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

The benefits of the incumbency cannot be over estimated, even if you're facing a challenge for the nomination from within your party. On the morning of the Wisconsin primary, Jimmy Carter announced some sort of "breakthough" in negotiations with Iran over the release of our hostages. The real breakthrough came when Reagan was taking the oath. The AP sent out a 2 word flash: "hostages freed"

Right now the answer is obvious and thats a big fat NO

I agree with both of these.

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

Yes. I think McCain was the best candidate in '00, but something went wrong. After that he was chained to the Bush/Cheney bus and ended up getting run over by them again.

But if he's really the man you say he is, why wasn't he standing in front of that bus?

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

We're going to find out shortly, likely over the next 6-9 months. The bigger question is this: Is the Republican Party going to have its **** together with a credible candidate, and be ready if the answer is "yes"? If not, being a 21st century Jimmy Carter might not matter.

Apart from matters we can't predict (military confrontation with Iran) the president is at a cross roads here. He can either be Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton. Clinton became a guy of very small initiatives (like school uniforms) that, coupled with his enormous political skills and a weak GOP candidate put him over the top in '96

The question is: does Obama have the skills of Bill Clinton or Jimmy Carter? So far, the answer has been "the latter." But he has plenty of time to get his mojo back--and the economy (fingers crossed) will probably have improved by '12, and he'll be taking credit for it, like every president does.

That incident the other day with the lady who said she was "tired of defending him," showed IMHO, very bad political instincts. His answer to her was bloodless and unemotional. No empathy at all. A recitation of the legislative "accomplishments" of his administration. This would have been the place for a Clintonian, "I can feel your pain." This guy may not be capable of that sort of touch.

The president's response reminded me of Dukakis, and his answer in a debate to a hypothetical about what he would do if somebody raped and murdered Kitty. The only correct answer is: "I'd want to kill the SOB with my bare hands." Instead, Dukakis treated us to a bloodless, unemotional recitation of his boiler plate opposition to the death penalty. Fine, dude, but we're talking about your WIFE here! I believe it was Time that described that question as a "tomahawk to the middle of his forehead."

I've said Obama's greatest political triumph was not getting elected, because the deck was really stacked against whomever the GOP nominated. Obama's greatest triumph was knocking off the "lioness of Tuzla," whom just about all the smart money boys had assumed was going to be the nominee. He ran to her left. He out organized her in the caucus states (boy, caucuses are a really bad idea) and because of the Democrats "proportional" allocation of delegates, was able to win the nomination, despite getting fewer votes in the primaries.

Can he recapture that in '12? Absolutely. Will he? Too soon to tell.

 

[huskyfan]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

that's more or less my thinking. he's not lost it yet, but he's getting dangerously close.

 

[sagard]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

But if he's really the man you say he is, why wasn't he standing in front of that bus?

There are all kinds of accusations if you want to look them up. Bottom line is he wasn't the choice of the special interest groups who support the Republicans and it cost him. Bush/Cheney and Rove were no doubt more organized, but being in Minnesota it was hard to see any of it first hand.

Why he didn't come out strongly against the Bush/Cheney administration early in his campaign vs. Obama I'll never know.

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

There are all kinds of accusations if you want to look them up. Bottom line is he wasn't the choice of the special interest groups who support the Republicans and it cost him. Bush/Cheney and Rove were no doubt more organized, but being in Minnesota it was hard to see any of it first hand.

Why he didn't come out strongly against the Bush/Cheney administration early in his campaign vs. Obama I'll never know.

Oh, I wasn't referring to the 2000 primaries. I'm saying, if McCain is really this great fiscal conservative, why wasn't he standing up to Bush between 2001 and 2009?

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

The election of '08 would have been the perfect time to apply the Buckley rule: elect the most conservative guy available. McCain vs Obama? Not really a close call.

 

[WeWantMore]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

The election of '08 would have been the perfect time to apply the Buckley rule: elect the most conservative guy available. McCain vs Obama? Not really a close call.

Sure. However, I think it's pretty hard to make a case that McCain would have been even slightly better than Bush was fiscally.

Also, if there's a President McCain right now, does the Tea Party ever get started? Do conservatives ever get elected in places like Utah and Alaska, as opposed to the RINOs in place during the Bush years?

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

Agreed-but Bush would have needed to garner about 65% of the Perot vote to even have a chance. The electoral vote margin was substantial to overcome. But no question the Perot vote influenced the election more than any third party candidate since T Roosevelt.

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=1992
This has state-by-state results including margins of victory.

Sans Perot, if we assume his voters split 60-40 to Bush, he would've probably swung New Jersey, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Georgia, and New Hampshire. Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Colorado would have been toss-ups.

Electoral totals from those states in '92:
New Jersey: 15
Montana: 3
Nevada: 4
Ohio: 21
Georgia: 13
New Hampshire: 4
So, that's 60 EV's.

Wisconsin: 11
Kentucky: 8
Colorado: 8
Toss-ups: 27 EV's.

So, best-case scenario for Bush, he loses 283-255.

If the Perot voters broke 2-1 for Bush, he'd add Maine, Connecticut, and Iowa to the mix and eke out a 274-264 win - but numerous states would have been decided by very small margins in that scenario.

 

[Patman]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

Oh, I wasn't referring to the 2000 primaries. I'm saying, if McCain is really this great fiscal conservative, why wasn't he standing up to Bush between 2001 and 2009?

McCain has always been about McCain and his special brand of goodness that he can bring. Realize that and you understand John McCain.

McCain believes in his honesty and pragmatism... and I'm sure if he had the opportunity he would say that you should too. That's all he ran on.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/national.php?year=1992
This has state-by-state results including margins of victory.

Sans Perot, if we assume his voters split 60-40 to Bush, he would've probably swung New Jersey, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Georgia, and New Hampshire. Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Colorado would have been toss-ups.

Electoral totals from those states in '92:
New Jersey: 15
Montana: 3
Nevada: 4
Ohio: 21
Georgia: 13
New Hampshire: 4
So, that's 60 EV's.

Wisconsin: 11
Kentucky: 8
Colorado: 8
Toss-ups: 27 EV's.

So, best-case scenario for Bush, he loses 283-255.

If the Perot voters broke 2-1 for Bush, he'd add Maine, Connecticut, and Iowa to the mix and eke out a 274-264 win - but numerous states would have been decided by very small margins in that scenario.

Thanks for the research. Still, the dynamic of a two person race would have been somewhat different. It was Clinton's to lose, for sure.

 

[Patman]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

Apart from matters we can't predict (military confrontation with Iran) the president is at a cross roads here. He can either be Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton. Clinton became a guy of very small initiatives (like school uniforms) that, coupled with his enormous political skills and a weak GOP candidate put him over the top in '96

The question is: does Obama have the skills of Bill Clinton or Jimmy Carter? So far, the answer has been "the latter." But he has plenty of time to get his mojo back--and the economy (fingers crossed) will probably have improved by '12, and he'll be taking credit for it, like every president does.

That incident the other day with the lady who said she was "tired of defending him," showed IMHO, very bad political instincts. His answer to her was bloodless and unemotional. No empathy at all. A recitation of the legislative "accomplishments" of his administration. This would have been the place for a Clintonian, "I can feel your pain." This guy may not be capable of that sort of touch.

The president's response reminded me of Dukakis, and his answer in a debate to a hypothetical about what he would do if somebody raped and murdered Kitty. The only correct answer is: "I'd want to kill the SOB with my bare hands." Instead, Dukakis treated us to a bloodless, unemotional recitation of his boiler plate opposition to the death penalty. Fine, dude, but we're talking about your WIFE here! I believe it was Time that described that question as a "tomahawk to the middle of his forehead."

I've said Obama's greatest political triumph was not getting elected, because the deck was really stacked against whomever the GOP nominated. Obama's greatest triumph was knocking off the "lioness of Tuzla," whom just about all the smart money boys had assumed was going to be the nominee. He ran to her left. He out organized her in the caucus states (boy, caucuses are a really bad idea) and because of the Democrats "proportional" allocation of delegates, was able to win the nomination, despite getting fewer votes in the primaries.

Can he recapture that in '12? Absolutely. Will he? Too soon to tell.

I have plenty of confidence that he can lie, cajole, and swindle like he did in 2008. Heck, he's played Kepler and folks like Kepler for a fiddle and they don't even know it yet. All he has to do is put on that "smarter than you" face and strike the same chords... it'll be like seals to fish.... it'll be the same vacuous mean-nothing tones that he used before... that's how he sells his brand... he is the one they've been waiting for because he has the aura of a pragmatic intellectual... just like them... except he isn't, but its all about culture, not about action. Now, I don't think he can fool everybody the 2nd time around... so a lot of it will have to do with the competence of the candidate he's running against and the skill of a the republican house not to muck things up on stupid topics.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

McCain has always been about McCain and his special brand of goodness that he can bring. Realize that and you understand John McCain.

McCain believes in his honesty and pragmatism... and I'm sure if he had the opportunity he would say that you should too. That's all he ran on.

While I don't necessarily disagree, it does take something very special to tell the North Vietnamese what they can do with their "early out." I wouldn't have lasted 5 hours as a POW, let alone 5 years. And I'd rat out my mother to get out.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

Thanks for the research. Still, the dynamic of a two person race would have been somewhat different. It was Clinton's to lose, for sure.

There's a couple major what-ifs involved here:
- what if Perot didn't run and Bush won in '92?
- what if Nader hadn't run in '00 and Gore prevailed?

Does the Republican sweep in '94 happen with Bush still in office? Doubtful.

What happens with Gore in office with an evenly split Congress? What happens post-9/11?

Someone needs to explore these possibilities in an alternate universe and get back to us with the results.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

I have plenty of confidence that he can lie, cajole, and swindle like he did in 2008. Heck, he's played Kepler and folks like Kepler for a fiddle and they don't even know it yet. All he has to do is put on that "smarter than you" face and strike the same chords... it'll be like seals to fish.... it'll be the same vacuous mean-nothing tones that he used before... that's how he sells his brand... he is the one they've been waiting for because he has the aura of a pragmatic intellectual... just like them... except he isn't, but its all about culture, not about action. Now, I don't think he can fool everybody the 2nd time around... so a lot of it will have to do with the competence of the candidate he's running against and the skill of a the republican house not to muck things up on stupid topics.

Independents and young voters will be the key for him. We know what African American voters are going to do. Will independents vote for him in huge numbers like '08? Certainly the significance of his race will be greatly diminished the second time around. Younger voters (who traditionally have very low turnouts) flocked to the polls, IMO, to be "part of history." They won't be as motivated on that score next time.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

There's a couple major what-ifs involved here:
- what if Perot didn't run and Bush won in '92?
- what if Nader hadn't run in '00 and Gore prevailed?

Does the Republican sweep in '94 happen with Bush still in office? Doubtful.

What happens with Gore in office with an evenly split Congress? What happens post-9/11?

Someone needs to explore these possibilities in an alternate universe and get back to us with the results.

What if Nixon hadn't been screwed in Texas and Illinois?

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

What if Nixon hadn't been screwed in Texas and Illinois?

Oliver Stone doesn't produce the steaming pile of **** "JFK" that idolized a reckless prosecutor and attempted to make credible all sorts of conspiracy nut theories for starters.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

Oliver Stone doesn't produce the steaming pile of **** "JFK" that idolized a reckless prosecutor and attempted to make credible all sorts of conspiracy nut theories for starters.

Boy,howdy. Jim Garrison was fully owned by Carlos Marcello. During his tenure, he never brought a single organized crime prosecution. Not one. Having grown up in Chicagoland and worked for while in Baton Rouge, I'm in a position to say there's no comparison as between the corruption in Illinois and Louisiana. No contest. Laissez les bontemps rouler.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

Gore decided to distance himself from Clinton. Big mistake. Cost us all immensely. Doubt he would have won a second term, but he should have had the goods to spare us from the Bush/Cheney/Rove thugs.

This. That has to go down as one of the worst political calculations of all time. Bush Sr. knew enough to run on the last fumes of Reagan's popularity and won handily. Gore could have done the same. He even drew the dream opponent. It should never have been close.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Obama XVI: Muslin curtains in the White House!!!

"Imam" Rauf as he threatens NYC if his plans for "Jihadarama" are disrupted.

Wait, I completely missed this. What happened?