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Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

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Re: Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

Rover said:
Regarding Palin, ask yourself two questions:

#1) Why wouldn't she run?

#2) Who can possibly match her appeal amongst the party faithful?
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#1 I think centers on her, somewhere deep deep deep within her, knowing that she isn't a viable general election candidate. Beneath all the bluster, she has to see polls showing her losing to Obama by 10-15 points and realize that I think. Also, I think you're overstating the appeal a failed presidential candidate has in terms of moneymaking. I really doubt she'll get much more attention than she gets now.

#2, I think there is undoubtedly a pocket of people within the GOP that see her as nearly infallible. However, that pocket isn't that large. Polls show her only capturing around 20% of the vote or so, plenty of room for another viable candidate imo.

Finally, I think she likes playing kingmaker. She's done pretty well this primary season picking winners, and I think she'd like nothing more than having all the GOP candidates who do wind up running have to fall at her feet and beg for her endorsement.
 
Re: Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

WeWantMore said:
She's done pretty well this primary season picking winners, and I think she'd like nothing more than having all the GOP candidates who do wind up running have to fall at her feet and beg for her endorsement.
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Has she? I heard that her endorsements were batting below .500.
 
Re: Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

ExileOnDaytonStreet said:
Since this doesn't have its own thread, it goes here:

Newt Gingerich and company haven't complained about this:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/22/AR2010082202635.html

Where's the outrage? How insensitive! And at the site of the 9-11 attacks, no less!
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I'm sure there are people who aren't happy about it. But they're Pentagon employees. Kind of hard to work on counterinsurgency and bash Islam at the same time?

I'm also sure there are folks who'd be happy to kick COIN to the curb, but official policy is official policy...
 
Re: Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

WeWantMore said:
Finally, I think she likes playing kingmaker. She's done pretty well this primary season picking winners, and I think she'd like nothing more than having all the GOP candidates who do wind up running have to fall at her feet and beg for her endorsement.
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I think this is the main reason she wouldn't run. She can effectively pick the next GOP candidate, but avoid all of the flak he (probably he since I can't think of a female who would carry much weight at this point) would face. She has her moment in the Sun, she's making serious money and some people actually care what she has to say. Moreover, I don't think she has the thick skin necessary for a national run, especially since she's a very polarizing figure.
 
Re: Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

Shirtless Guy said:
That should be interesting because on the one hand, I think most of us realize at least a conservatives, is that what a conservative governor does at the state level, doesn't really mean he would try and do that at the federal level...especially if he is conservative, believes in states rights and accepts that something like obamacare is unconstitutional. Now, I do agree that many people won't be able to make that distinction, especially if the media doesn't even try and explain the distinction (and I doubt they will).
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its funny that you mention that. i guess i am someone who struggles with the incongruity between a politician's state level and federal level initiatives.

not to oversimplify palin, but what is remarkable to me is that her enormous approval ratings in alaska (pre-VP nom) were based largely on her the amount of federal money she brought into the state and the windfall taxes on the profits of the oil companies.

obviously that is solid work by a governor. but both of those seem to me to be the complete antithesis of conservative ideology. i just dont see how she can seriously campaign on a low taxes platform when her political history is the opposite. sure she can tweet about it all she wants, and it sounds great. but how can you reasonably expect her to put it into practice when she has no experience doing so.
 
Re: Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

ExileOnDaytonStreet said:
Where's the outrage? How insensitive! And at the site of the 9-11 attacks, no less!
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Stupid arguments from both sides on this.
Opponents of the New York mosque say it would be disrespectful of those killed on Sept. 11, 2001, to allow Muslims to pray near the World Trade Center site.
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I don't think so. Not serious opponents, anyway. They would object to a perceived anti-American extremist building a monument to al-quaida with terrorist funding, maybe. Not to Muslims praying there.
Same thing with the link the other day where the columnist wrote, if you believe in religious freedom, "you have a moral responsibility to support the mosque construction". No I don't. Go ahead and build what you want, I don't care, but I cannot be forced to "support" it. It's not my fight.
 
Re: Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

Here's a bit of advice if you're so scared you can't get to sleep and don't want to wake up mommy and daddy: if you pull the covers up over your head, Sarah Palin can't get to you.
 
Re: Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

Old Pio said:
Here's a bit of advice if you're so scared you can't get to sleep and don't want to wake up mommy and daddy: if you pull the covers up over your head, Sarah Palin can't get to you.
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But Obama will!!! :)
 
Re: Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

Old Pio said:
Here's a bit of advice if you're so scared you can't get to sleep and don't want to wake up mommy and daddy: if you pull the covers up over your head, Sarah Palin can't get to you.
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the response of the ignorant. well done?
 
Re: Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

Who's afraid of Palin? She's the one running around inventing words that don't even exist, doing anything to put her mug on camera, and getting snippy and condescending towards anyone who dares to see things differently than she does.

Palin doesn't worry me. The people who can't see through her smokescreen do (and the same goes for Obama, for what it's worth).
 
Re: Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

WeWantMore said:
I can't find an updated list, but last I saw she was definitely above .500.

Anyways, even if she is below .500, her successes have been very very high profile.
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Found it. The WaPo has a Palin endorsement tracker. Seriously. Complete with graphics. :)

Apparently, she's 16-10 so far. Pretty good. However, as MediaMatters notes (and even if you hate that group, it's hard to argue with their logic), Palin's 16 wins include 5 endorsements made after the candidate had already won.

Hell, I can do that. I hereby endorse John McCain in his senate primary race!!!! :p

So, anyway, she's 11-10. Just about random chance. So none of this stuff matters (if it ever did).
 
Re: Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

WeWantMore said:
I think this was brought up before in this thread. Argument boiled down to (IIRC) it being more of an interfaith type of chapel.
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Right. The Pentagon site is a non-denominational chapel, while the GZ site would be an Islamic Mosque.
 
Re: Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

amherstblackbear said:
So, anyway, she's 11-10. Just about random chance. So none of this stuff matters (if it ever did).
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If she's backing a lot of challengers rather than incumbents, a 50% success rate is actually pretty significant (I don't know the breakdown of challengers vs. incumbents in her assortment of picks, someone else will have to shed light on that).
 
Re: Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

amherstblackbear said:
Found it. The WaPo has a Palin endorsement tracker. Seriously. Complete with graphics. :)

Apparently, she's 16-10 so far. Pretty good. However, as MediaMatters notes (and even if you hate that group, it's hard to argue with their logic), Palin's 16 wins include 5 endorsements made after the candidate had already won.

Hell, I can do that. I hereby endorse John McCain in his senate primary race!!!! :p

So, anyway, she's 11-10. Just about random chance. So none of this stuff matters (if it ever did).
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Thanks for digging that up. I knew someone had started one, couldn't find it earlier.

Anyways, the tracker now shows 20-10, so take out those 5 wins and she's at 15-10, or .600. Like Bakunin said, some of her endorsements have been of significant longshots as well. For example, backing Rand Paul against establishment (and Dick Cheney) favorite Trey Grayson in Kentucky. Or backing longshot Nikki Haley in South Carolina against a whole host of good ol' boys.

Also, if some of her "wins" can be discounted, I think some of her losses can as well. For example, Cecile Bledsoe in Arkansas. On the day of the primary, Palin tweeted that she was wishing Cecile well or something like that. Bam! In the media's eyes, that counts as an endorsement.
 
Re: Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

I was just coming back b/c it dawned on me that the link was a few days old - so obviously didn't include last night.

Bakunin's point is a good one. To really get at this, you'd want to try to figure out the counterfactual - what would have happened absent the endorsement. Palin probably got some losses by endorsing candidates who just weren't going to win. So those aren't real losses. On the flip side, there were probably at least a few candidates where her endorsement played well because it was a conservative district, and given the political climate, a tea-party type candidate would have pretty good chances, anyway.

It's possible to do it. I'm sure some polisci grad student is working on the manuscript as I type this. Seems like tedious work, so I'll leave it to him/her. :)
 
Re: Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

...and if the endorsement of the Alaska senate challenger turns into a win (we won't know the outcome 'til next month due to absentee ballot counting among other things), that's an enormous upset. How often does a sitting senator lose in a primary absent a scandal? :eek:
 
Re: Obama XIV: President VISTA with SP2

Bakunin said:
...and if the endorsement of the Alaska senate challenger turns into a win (we won't know the outcome 'til next month due to absentee ballot counting among other things), that's an enormous upset. How often does a sitting senator lose in a primary absent a scandal? :eek:
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Well, it's already happened once this cycle in Utah, but yeah pretty rare.

I have to say though, and this is probably cynical of me, I'd be shocked if Murkowski didn't try to pull some funny business with the absentee ballots.

Edit: They counted more precincts this afternoon. 2 left to go, plus absentees, and Murkowski's cut the deficit from around 2000 to around 1400.
 
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