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NCAA Tournament Selection and Seeding

TitleIXHockey said:
My team is 4-2 against the WCHA in NCAA tournament play and 4-1 in the Frozen Four.
Click to expand...

I mean, my team has 17 wins in the FF.
UW has 13 FF wins, and UMD has 11 wins, Clarkson has 6, so you must be a Harvard fan? No wonder you hate the Gophers, your team has always come up 2nd to them, lol.
 
Last edited:
Wow, I see that a lot of hissing and spitting appeared here since I was online yesterday.
I thought I'd only see it on the men's forum with the weasel's and rodent's baiting each other ahead of their title game.
 
Hockeybuckeye said:
It's late and I'm tired so I guess the point eluded me.
Click to expand...

He is - as best I can tell - trying to use the fact that Minnesota lost to Wisconsin 5-0 and Providence only 3-0 to defend his "weak WCHA top 4" comment from yesterday, not realizing that Ohio State had also lost a game 5-0. My point in bringing it up is "if losing to Wisconsin 5-0 makes you 'weak', and Ohio State did that, then what does it make a team who lost to that 'weak' Ohio State team tonight, and what does it say about the conference where that team came in second?" It's not a knock on OSU, it is refuting his ridiculous "weak WCHA top 4" comment.
 
robertearle said:
He is - as best I can tell - trying to use the fact that Minnesota lost to Wisconsin 5-0 and Providence only 3-0 to defend his "weak WCHA top 4" comment from yesterday, not realizing that Ohio State had also lost a game 5-0. My point in bringing it up is "if losing to Wisconsin 5-0 makes you 'weak', and Ohio State did that, then what does it make a team who lost to that 'weak' Ohio State team tonight, and what does it say about the conference where that team came in second?" It's not a knock on OSU, it is refuting his ridiculous "weak WCHA top 4" comment.
Click to expand...

I knew that too, I've looked at every box score multiple times. It was mostly a joke, but I am also mostly satisfied with Providence and UMD's performances.

What I mean by a weak WCHA, and to be fair I didn't fully describe the basis for my point, is this.

Wisconsin
2020:
40.0-19.4 shots (+20.6, 64.7% of shots taken)
+17.4% relative to competition

2021:
32.8-24.6 (+8.2, 57.1%)
+8.1% rel

Minnesota
2020:
35.6-23.6 (+12.0, 60.1%)
+11.2% rel.

2021:
30.3-27.6 (+2.7, 52.3%)
+4.5% rel.

Ohio State
2020:
34.2-26.3 (+7.9, 56.5%)
+10.1% rel

2021:
38.9-24.6 (+14.3, 61.3%)
+13.5% rel.

UMD
2020:
31.9-30.4 (+1.5, 51.2%)
+4.6% rel.

2021:
35.1-27.6 (+7.5, 55.9%)
+4.3% rel.

2020
+10.5 shots per game
+10.8% of shots taken relative to competition

2021
+8.0 shots per game
+7.6%

Big gains by OSU (offset by a 2.0% drop in shooting percentage) and MSU (30.1-28.8 average shots per game, the first positive net in recent memory) evened out the overall strength of the conference compared to previous years (as best as one can tell given no interconference games).

This is getting pretty granular, but shots have correlated fairly well with success (since we didn't have corsi/fenwick figures until last year (CHN, and I don't fully trust them)).

The only teams to even make a title game since 14-15 with a shot differential below +10.0 are Clarkson (+9.8) in 2017 who beat Wisconsin (+22.3) and Harvard (+9.3) in 2015 who lost to Minnesota (+20.6).




tldr
I still think Min and Wis got a bit worse than last season, OSU got a lot better in one area and a bit worse in another and UMD treaded water. Other conferences didn't take advantage.
 
TitleIXHockey said:
I knew that too, I've looked at every box score multiple times. It was mostly a joke, but I am also mostly satisfied with Providence and UMD's performances.

What I mean by a weak WCHA, and to be fair I didn't fully describe the basis for my point, is this...

I still think Min and Wis got a bit worse than last season, OSU got a lot better in one area and a bit worse in another and UMD treaded water. Other conferences didn't take advantage.
Click to expand...

First question would be are the 2020 numbers 'conference only'? Because if not, the comparison is completely flawed.

But even if they are, the scheduling difference within conference from last year to this makes the comparison "weak", to coin a phrase. With the exception of Duluth, the "top" of the WCHA played fewer games against the "bottom" this year. Fewer games, fewer opportunities to pile up a bunch of shots.

And that is if one buys the idea that "shots" implies "strength", etc.

I'm very much satisfied with Wisconsin's performance this year.
 
TitleIXHockey said:
I knew that too, I've looked at every box score multiple times. It was mostly a joke, but I am also mostly satisfied with Providence and UMD's performances.

What I mean by a weak WCHA, and to be fair I didn't fully describe the basis for my point, is this.

Wisconsin
2020:
40.0-19.4 shots (+20.6, 64.7% of shots taken)
+17.4% relative to competition

2021:
32.8-24.6 (+8.2, 57.1%)
+8.1% rel

Minnesota
2020:
35.6-23.6 (+12.0, 60.1%)
+11.2% rel.

2021:
30.3-27.6 (+2.7, 52.3%)
+4.5% rel.

Ohio State
2020:
34.2-26.3 (+7.9, 56.5%)
+10.1% rel

2021:
38.9-24.6 (+14.3, 61.3%)
+13.5% rel.

UMD
2020:
31.9-30.4 (+1.5, 51.2%)
+4.6% rel.

2021:
35.1-27.6 (+7.5, 55.9%)
+4.3% rel.

2020
+10.5 shots per game
+10.8% of shots taken relative to competition

2021
+8.0 shots per game
+7.6%

Big gains by OSU (offset by a 2.0% drop in shooting percentage) and MSU (30.1-28.8 average shots per game, the first positive net in recent memory) evened out the overall strength of the conference compared to previous years (as best as one can tell given no interconference games).

This is getting pretty granular, but shots have correlated fairly well with success (since we didn't have corsi/fenwick figures until last year (CHN, and I don't fully trust them)).

The only teams to even make a title game since 14-15 with a shot differential below +10.0 are Clarkson (+9.8) in 2017 who beat Wisconsin (+22.3) and Harvard (+9.3) in 2015 who lost to Minnesota (+20.6).




tldr
I still think Min and Wis got a bit worse than last season, OSU got a lot better in one area and a bit worse in another and UMD treaded water. Other conferences didn't take advantage.
Click to expand...


Since you're using shots to define the quality of the team and conference.

Ohio 48
BC 13
+35 for Ohio

Wisco 44
Prov 12
+32 for Wisco

UMD 30
Colgate 30
even

OUCH! Doesn't look pretty for Hockey East!

Pretty sure the gophers and probably even the mavericks would come away with wins on a few of these teams that were let in.
 
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