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NCAA Tournament Selection and Seeding

Having watched MN and WI play 5 times, the eye test CLEARLY tells me that MN is clearly more worthy of the bid than BC or Prov. Actually Mankato and Bemidji would have given Providence and BC a run for their money. I cannot speak to PSU vs the Hockey Least teams as I have not seen them play.
 
To TimothyA's point about Mankato and Bemidji. Both of those teams are good skating teams with some pretty decent skill. On that aspect they can hang with the top of the "weak" WCHA but neither of them have the depth of the top 4 "weak" teams so they did get worn down. This happened to Provincial Furniture and the beagles as well.

Minnesota had a lot of defensive issues this year but still had some of the best if not the best shooting forwards in the country. Zumwinkle (Zoom Boom) especially. If you don't harass them all over the ice like Ohio State and Wisconsin did then you would not likely beat them.
 
I think BC and Providence showed they belonged just fine. Both games were close and let's not forget that they were the 6 and 7 seeds. They weren't ~supposed~ to win. The WCHA's 19-1 record against the WHEA in the NCAA tournament is somewhat inflated by the fact that while upper seeded WCHA teams sometimes play east teams in the first round, the opposite isn't true.

I did think BC, as the 3rd best Fenwick close team in the country (OSU was 1st) would fare better on shots though.
 
TitleIXHockey said:
I did think BC, as the 3rd best Fenwick close team in the country (OSU was 1st) would fare better on shots though.
Click to expand...

One more question on your "shots" statistics: why the concentration on 'shots'? If the idea is some predictive value of the differential (like Bill James' Pythagorean run differential in baseball), why not use goals and goal differential? One team can outshoot another by a mile, but if their goalie stinks, they still get beat.
 
TitleIXHockey said:
I think BC and Providence showed they belonged just fine.
Click to expand...

I guess they can skate so they belonged just fine? Did you watch Providence have no shots on goal in a period? ZERO. I'd bet every penny of everything I own that if MN was the 7 seed and played WI they'd have a shot on goal in every period. BC was outshot 48 13, Providence 44 12. No amount of "logic" tells me they belonged over MN. I saw MN play UW 5 times. Mankato could beat BC or Providence.
 
robertearle said:
One more question on your "shots" statistics: why the concentration on 'shots'? If the idea is some predictive value of the differential (like Bill James' Pythagorean run differential in baseball), why not use goals and goal differential? One team can outshoot another by a mile, but if their goalie stinks, they still get beat.
Click to expand...

I actually favor a composite ranking that incorporates:
  • Winning percentage
  • Goal differential per game
  • Shooting percentage
  • Save percentage (both minus empty net goals)
  • Adjusted PP and PK (SHG for adds to PK, SHGa detracts from PP - nerfed by 2/3 since teams spend an average of 1/3 of the game on special teams)
  • Pct of shots taken
  • Pct of shots taken relative to competition
  • Pct of shots taken against quality competition (teams that outshoot their opponents on average)
  • Pct of shots taken against qual comp relative
Shots is where I saw the biggest disparity last year to this year among WCHA teams in addition to shooting pct for Ohio State. There is obviously some nuance lacking bc I didn't feel like doing the work - using conf only from last season, correcting for number of games against certain teams (though rel. does this anyway).

Overall some changes I'd like to make if it were easier / the data were available
  • Using Fenwick close instead of shots
  • Going multiple levels out for relative figures (considering opponents' opponents, opponents' opponents' opponents, and so on until each stabilizes near whatever limit it approaches)
  • Incorporating TOI figures for players (limited data available on InStat)
 
Timothy A said:
I guess they can skate so they belonged just fine? Did you watch Providence have no shots on goal in a period? ZERO. I'd bet every penny of everything I own that if MN was the 7 seed and played WI they'd have a shot on goal in every period. BC was outshot 48 13, Providence 44 12. No amount of "logic" tells me they belonged over MN. I saw MN play UW 5 times. Mankato could beat BC or Providence.
Click to expand...

To be fair (Letterkenny fans, join in), Badger radio guy Reid Magnum said he has Providence at three shots in the first period, but the 'live stats' page was stuck for a some amount of time. He said Providence shot total went from zero to eight VERY quickly when Providence got going around 'halftime'.
 
Timothy A said:
I guess they can skate so they belonged just fine? Did you watch Providence have no shots on goal in a period? ZERO. I'd bet every penny of everything I own that if MN was the 7 seed and played WI they'd have a shot on goal in every period. BC was outshot 48 13, Providence 44 12. No amount of "logic" tells me they belonged over MN. I saw MN play UW 5 times. Mankato could beat BC or Providence.
Click to expand...

Okay, I agree with you that Wisconsin isn't very good, Providence is just bad and didn't belong.
 
TitleIXHockey said:
Shots is where I saw the biggest disparity last year to this year among WCHA teams in addition to shooting pct for Ohio State. There is obviously some nuance lacking bc I didn't feel like doing the work - using conf only from last season, correcting for number of games against certain teams (though rel. does this anyway).
Click to expand...

And my question as to whether the numbers you quoted from 2020 were conference only vs 'full schedule'? And this year's corrected 'by team' because the top played the bottom fewer times this year as opposed to 2020? Fewer games against the bottom, fewer chances to pile up a bunch of shots...
 
robertearle said:
And my question as to whether the numbers you quoted from 2020 were conference only vs 'full schedule'? And this year's corrected 'by team' because the top played the bottom fewer times this year as opposed to 2020? Fewer games against the bottom, fewer chances to pile up a bunch of shots...
Click to expand...

No and sort of. Rel corrects by team. The formula for relative shots is =shots taken - (average percentage of shots allowed by opponents weighted by number of games against those opponents).

I just realized there's a fairly easy way to do the former. I don't think it will make a ton of difference, but let's see, maybe you're right.
 
TitleIXHockey said:
No and sort of. Rel corrects by team. The formula for relative shots is =shots taken - (average percentage of shots allowed by opponents weighted by number of games against those opponents).

I just realized there's a fairly easy way to do the former. I don't think it will make a ton of difference, but let's see, maybe you're right.
Click to expand...

Last year, Wisconsin played Bemidji twice more than this year, St Cloud twice more, Mankato twice more, and played Lindenwood twice and LIU twice.

This year they had fewer shots per game.... no kidding!!

LOL
 
2020 [TABLE="width: 841"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]Team[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]T[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Pct[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]GF[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]GA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]+/-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]+/-/g[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]SF[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]SA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"]SF/g[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"]SA/g[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"]TotS[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"]S%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"]Opp SA%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"]Rel S%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl89, bgcolor: #005d4a"]Bemidji State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl102, bgcolor: gray"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl103, bgcolor: gray"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]15[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: gray"]0.407[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]52[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]75[/TD]
[TD="class: xl106, bgcolor: gray"]-23[/TD]
[TD="class: xl107, bgcolor: gray"]-0.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]713[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]854[/TD]
[TD="class: xl109, bgcolor: gray"]26.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl109, bgcolor: gray"]31.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]58.0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]45.50%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl115, bgcolor: gray"]49.78%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl115, bgcolor: gray"]-4.28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #7a0019"]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83"]19[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85"]0.741[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]49[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86"]51[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]1.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]947[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]651[/TD]
[TD="class: xl98, bgcolor: #92d050"]35.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl98, bgcolor: #92d050"]24.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"]59.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]59.26%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]52.57%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #92d050"]6.69%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #7a0019"]Minnesota-Duluth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl102, bgcolor: gray"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl103, bgcolor: gray"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: gray"]0.554[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]77[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]68[/TD]
[TD="class: xl106, bgcolor: gray"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl107, bgcolor: gray"]0.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]899[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]860[/TD]
[TD="class: xl109, bgcolor: gray"]32.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl109, bgcolor: gray"]30.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]62.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]51.11%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl115, bgcolor: gray"]50.63%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl115, bgcolor: gray"]0.48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl91, bgcolor: #3f0058"]Minnesota State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl102, bgcolor: gray"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl117, bgcolor: gray"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl118, bgcolor: gray"]18[/TD]
[TD="class: xl118, bgcolor: gray"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: gray"]0.231[/TD]
[TD="class: xl118, bgcolor: gray"]42[/TD]
[TD="class: xl118, bgcolor: gray"]88[/TD]
[TD="class: xl119, bgcolor: gray"]-46[/TD]
[TD="class: xl107, bgcolor: gray"]-1.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]614[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]888[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]23.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]34.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]57.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl116, bgcolor: gray"]40.88%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl120, bgcolor: gray"]48.63%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl120, bgcolor: gray"]-7.75%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl92, bgcolor: #cd1041"]Ohio State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83"]17[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85"]0.696[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]91[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]61[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86"]30[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]1.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]955[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]771[/TD]
[TD="class: xl98, bgcolor: #92d050"]34.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl87"]27.5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"]61.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]55.33%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl101, bgcolor: #c896fa"]50.66%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #92d050"]4.67%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl93, bgcolor: #a10209"]St. Cloud State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl102, bgcolor: gray"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl103, bgcolor: gray"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]23[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: gray"]0.096[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]37[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]109[/TD]
[TD="class: xl106, bgcolor: gray"]-72[/TD]
[TD="class: xl107, bgcolor: gray"]-2.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]535[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]1045[/TD]
[TD="class: xl109, bgcolor: gray"]20.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl109, bgcolor: gray"]40.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]60.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl114, bgcolor: gray"]33.86%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl115, bgcolor: gray"]47.52%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl115, bgcolor: gray"]-13.65%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl94, bgcolor: #c32534"]Wisconsin[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83"]18[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85"]0.750[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]101[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86"]51[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]2.0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]921[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]515[/TD]
[TD="class: xl99, bgcolor: #bf8f00"]35.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl99, bgcolor: #bf8f00"]19.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"]55.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]64.14%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]51.65%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #92d050"]12.48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
2021 [TABLE="width: 841"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]Team[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]T[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Pct[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]GF[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]GA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]+/-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]+/-/g[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]SF[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]SA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"]SF/g[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"]SA/g[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"]TotS[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"]S%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"]Opp SA%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"]Rel S%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl89, bgcolor: #005d4a"]Bemidji State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl119, bgcolor: gray"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl99, bgcolor: gray"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]16[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl101, bgcolor: gray"]0.150[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]24[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]72[/TD]
[TD="class: xl102, bgcolor: gray"]-48[/TD]
[TD="class: xl103, bgcolor: gray"]-2.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]407[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]659[/TD]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: gray"]20.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: gray"]33.0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl106, bgcolor: gray"]53.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl109, bgcolor: gray"]38.18%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]51.63%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]-13.45%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #7a0019"]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85"]0.575[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]65[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]45[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86"]20[/TD]
[TD="class: xl98"]1.0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]606[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]552[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #92d050"]30.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl87"]27.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl97, bgcolor: #92d050"]57.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]52.33%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]47.79%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]4.54%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #7a0019"]Minnesota-Duluth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85"]0.647[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]52[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]30[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86"]22[/TD]
[TD="class: xl98"]1.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]596[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]470[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #92d050"]35.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl87"]27.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl97, bgcolor: #92d050"]62.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]55.91%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]51.65%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]4.26%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl91, bgcolor: #3f0058"]Minnesota State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl119, bgcolor: gray"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, bgcolor: gray"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl113, bgcolor: gray"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl113, bgcolor: gray"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl101, bgcolor: gray"]0.375[/TD]
[TD="class: xl113, bgcolor: gray"]38[/TD]
[TD="class: xl113, bgcolor: gray"]56[/TD]
[TD="class: xl114, bgcolor: gray"]-18[/TD]
[TD="class: xl103, bgcolor: gray"]-0.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]601[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]576[/TD]
[TD="class: xl106, bgcolor: gray"]30.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl106, bgcolor: gray"]28.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl106, bgcolor: gray"]58.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl111, bgcolor: gray"]51.06%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]53.40%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl115, bgcolor: gray"]-2.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl92, bgcolor: #cd1041"]Ohio State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85"]0.706[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]49[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]34[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86"]15[/TD]
[TD="class: xl98"]0.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]662[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]418[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #92d050"]38.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl87"]24.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"]63.5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]61.30%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]47.84%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]13.45%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl93, bgcolor: #a10209"]St. Cloud State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl119, bgcolor: gray"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl99, bgcolor: gray"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl101, bgcolor: gray"]0.342[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]32[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]62[/TD]
[TD="class: xl102, bgcolor: gray"]-30[/TD]
[TD="class: xl103, bgcolor: gray"]-1.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]412[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]747[/TD]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: gray"]21.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: gray"]39.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl106, bgcolor: gray"]61.0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl109, bgcolor: gray"]35.55%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]51.13%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]-15.58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl94, bgcolor: #c32534"]Wisconsin[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85"]0.794[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]67[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]28[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86"]39[/TD]
[TD="class: xl98"]2.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]557[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]419[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #92d050"]32.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl87"]24.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl97, bgcolor: #92d050"]57.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]57.07%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]49.02%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]8.05%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Includes conference tournament games. Didn't correct shots percentage for number of games vs. certain opponents so going to focus on rel. since this accounts for this.


So year to year in rel shots

Minnesota: -2.13%
UMD: +3.78%
OSU: +8.78%
Wis: -4.43%

Edit:
hopefully all that math is right lol.
So yeah Minnesota and Wisconsin got a bit worse relative to their competition (at least in terms of shots), UMD got a bit better and OSU a lot better. MSU up a bit, SCSU down a bit, and BMJ cratered.
 
Last edited:
TitleIXHockey said:
2020 [TABLE="width: 841"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]Team[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]T[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Pct[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]GF[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]GA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]+/-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]+/-/g[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]SF[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]SA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"]SF/g[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"]SA/g[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"]TotS[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"]S%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"]Opp SA%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"]Rel S%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl89, bgcolor: #005d4a"]Bemidji State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl102, bgcolor: gray"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl103, bgcolor: gray"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]15[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: gray"]0.407[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]52[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]75[/TD]
[TD="class: xl106, bgcolor: gray"]-23[/TD]
[TD="class: xl107, bgcolor: gray"]-0.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]713[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]854[/TD]
[TD="class: xl109, bgcolor: gray"]26.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl109, bgcolor: gray"]31.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]58.0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]45.50%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl115, bgcolor: gray"]49.78%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl115, bgcolor: gray"]-4.28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #7a0019"]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83"]19[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85"]0.741[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]49[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86"]51[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]1.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]947[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]651[/TD]
[TD="class: xl98, bgcolor: #92d050"]35.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl98, bgcolor: #92d050"]24.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"]59.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]59.26%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]52.57%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #92d050"]6.69%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #7a0019"]Minnesota-Duluth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl102, bgcolor: gray"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl103, bgcolor: gray"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: gray"]0.554[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]77[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]68[/TD]
[TD="class: xl106, bgcolor: gray"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl107, bgcolor: gray"]0.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]899[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]860[/TD]
[TD="class: xl109, bgcolor: gray"]32.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl109, bgcolor: gray"]30.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]62.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]51.11%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl115, bgcolor: gray"]50.63%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl115, bgcolor: gray"]0.48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl91, bgcolor: #3f0058"]Minnesota State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl102, bgcolor: gray"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl117, bgcolor: gray"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl118, bgcolor: gray"]18[/TD]
[TD="class: xl118, bgcolor: gray"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: gray"]0.231[/TD]
[TD="class: xl118, bgcolor: gray"]42[/TD]
[TD="class: xl118, bgcolor: gray"]88[/TD]
[TD="class: xl119, bgcolor: gray"]-46[/TD]
[TD="class: xl107, bgcolor: gray"]-1.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]614[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]888[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]23.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]34.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]57.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl116, bgcolor: gray"]40.88%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl120, bgcolor: gray"]48.63%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl120, bgcolor: gray"]-7.75%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl92, bgcolor: #cd1041"]Ohio State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83"]17[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85"]0.696[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]91[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]61[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86"]30[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]1.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]955[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]771[/TD]
[TD="class: xl98, bgcolor: #92d050"]34.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl87"]27.5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"]61.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]55.33%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl101, bgcolor: #c896fa"]50.66%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #92d050"]4.67%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl93, bgcolor: #a10209"]St. Cloud State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl102, bgcolor: gray"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl103, bgcolor: gray"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]23[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: gray"]0.096[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]37[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]109[/TD]
[TD="class: xl106, bgcolor: gray"]-72[/TD]
[TD="class: xl107, bgcolor: gray"]-2.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]535[/TD]
[TD="class: xl104, bgcolor: gray"]1045[/TD]
[TD="class: xl109, bgcolor: gray"]20.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl109, bgcolor: gray"]40.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]60.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl114, bgcolor: gray"]33.86%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl115, bgcolor: gray"]47.52%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl115, bgcolor: gray"]-13.65%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl94, bgcolor: #c32534"]Wisconsin[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83"]18[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85"]0.750[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]101[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]50[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86"]51[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100"]2.0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]921[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]515[/TD]
[TD="class: xl99, bgcolor: #bf8f00"]35.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl99, bgcolor: #bf8f00"]19.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"]55.2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]64.14%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]51.65%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #92d050"]12.48%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
2021 [TABLE="width: 841"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]Team[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]W[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]L[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]T[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]Pct[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]GF[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]GA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]+/-[/TD]
[TD="class: xl72"]+/-/g[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]SF[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]SA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"]SF/g[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"]SA/g[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"]TotS[/TD]
[TD="class: xl76"]S%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"]Opp SA%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"]Rel S%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl89, bgcolor: #005d4a"]Bemidji State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl119, bgcolor: gray"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl99, bgcolor: gray"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]16[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl101, bgcolor: gray"]0.150[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]24[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]72[/TD]
[TD="class: xl102, bgcolor: gray"]-48[/TD]
[TD="class: xl103, bgcolor: gray"]-2.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]407[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]659[/TD]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: gray"]20.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: gray"]33.0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl106, bgcolor: gray"]53.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl109, bgcolor: gray"]38.18%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]51.63%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]-13.45%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #7a0019"]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85"]0.575[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]65[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]45[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86"]20[/TD]
[TD="class: xl98"]1.0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]606[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]552[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #92d050"]30.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl87"]27.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl97, bgcolor: #92d050"]57.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]52.33%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]47.79%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]4.54%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl90, bgcolor: #7a0019"]Minnesota-Duluth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85"]0.647[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]52[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]30[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86"]22[/TD]
[TD="class: xl98"]1.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]596[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]470[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #92d050"]35.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl87"]27.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl97, bgcolor: #92d050"]62.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]55.91%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]51.65%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]4.26%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl91, bgcolor: #3f0058"]Minnesota State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl119, bgcolor: gray"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl112, bgcolor: gray"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl113, bgcolor: gray"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl113, bgcolor: gray"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl101, bgcolor: gray"]0.375[/TD]
[TD="class: xl113, bgcolor: gray"]38[/TD]
[TD="class: xl113, bgcolor: gray"]56[/TD]
[TD="class: xl114, bgcolor: gray"]-18[/TD]
[TD="class: xl103, bgcolor: gray"]-0.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]601[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]576[/TD]
[TD="class: xl106, bgcolor: gray"]30.1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl106, bgcolor: gray"]28.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl106, bgcolor: gray"]58.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl111, bgcolor: gray"]51.06%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]53.40%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl115, bgcolor: gray"]-2.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl92, bgcolor: #cd1041"]Ohio State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85"]0.706[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]49[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]34[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86"]15[/TD]
[TD="class: xl98"]0.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]662[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]418[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #92d050"]38.9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl87"]24.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl80"]63.5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]61.30%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]47.84%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]13.45%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl93, bgcolor: #a10209"]St. Cloud State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl119, bgcolor: gray"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl99, bgcolor: gray"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl101, bgcolor: gray"]0.342[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]32[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]62[/TD]
[TD="class: xl102, bgcolor: gray"]-30[/TD]
[TD="class: xl103, bgcolor: gray"]-1.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]412[/TD]
[TD="class: xl100, bgcolor: gray"]747[/TD]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: gray"]21.7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl105, bgcolor: gray"]39.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl106, bgcolor: gray"]61.0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl109, bgcolor: gray"]35.55%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]51.13%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl110, bgcolor: gray"]-15.58%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl94, bgcolor: #c32534"]Wisconsin[/TD]
[TD="class: xl71"]WCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl83"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl85"]0.794[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]67[/TD]
[TD="class: xl84"]28[/TD]
[TD="class: xl86"]39[/TD]
[TD="class: xl98"]2.3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]557[/TD]
[TD="class: xl78, bgcolor: #f8cbad"]419[/TD]
[TD="class: xl96, bgcolor: #92d050"]32.8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl87"]24.6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl97, bgcolor: #92d050"]57.4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl95, bgcolor: #92d050"]57.07%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]49.02%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl88"]8.05%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Includes conference tournament games. Didn't correct shots percentage for number of games vs. certain opponents so going to focus on rel. since this accounts for this.


So year to year in rel shots

Minnesota: -2.13%
UMD: +3.78%
OSU: +8.78%
Wis: -4.43%

Edit:
hopefully all that math is right lol.
So yeah Minnesota and Wisconsin got a bit worse relative to their competition (at least in terms of shots), UMD got a bit better and OSU a lot better. MSU up a bit, SCSU down a bit, and BMJ cratered.
Click to expand...

And in goals differential per game, Wisconsin got better (despite tougher conf schedule), Duluth got a lot better (because of much weaker conf schedule), Ohio State went down a little (due to much tougher schedule), and Minn went down a lot (because they were not as good this year, and tougher schedule)

If you want to say that shows a "weak WCHA top 4", go right ahead. But three of them are playing tomorrow.

---------------------------

(The table's numbers are also missing, I guess, the WCHA tournament final. Not sure about any others.)
 
Last edited:
robertearle said:
And in goals differential per game, Wisconsin got better (despite tougher conf schedule), Duluth got a lot better (because of much weaker conf schedule), Ohio State went down a little (due to much tougher schedule), and Minn went down a lot (because they were not as good this year, and tougher schedule)

If you want to say that shows a "weak WCHA top 4", go right ahead. But three of them are playing tomorrow.

---------------------------

(The table's numbers are also missing, I guess, the WCHA tournament final. Not sure about any others.)
Click to expand...

Ah, I must not have input the late conference finals from 2021 yet.

I believe I did say weak historically and the two best teams getting slightly worse (by some metrics anyway) fits that bill IMO. A bit similar to WHEA which has seen BC and BU drop over the last half-decade giving the WHEA a slightly tougher middle than the WCHA but worse top and bottom.

I think two are playing tomorrow. WCHA fans don't really seem to want to talk up or own Ohio State. I think they're one of ours. ;)
 
TitleIXHockey said:
I believe I did say weak historically and the two best teams getting slightly worse (by some metrics anyway) fits that bill IMO.
Click to expand...

The exact comment in its entirety was "Minnesota went what 4-8-1 against a weak WCHA top 4? The only reason this is even a conversation is because of the bizarre choice of teams that were put in ahead of them. If PSU and SLU make it, non story."
 
And as for "I think two are playing tomorrow. WCHA fans don't really seem to want to talk up or own Ohio State", I just did.
 
robertearle said:
The exact comment in its entirety was "Minnesota went what 4-8-1 against a weak WCHA top 4? The only reason this is even a conversation is because of the bizarre choice of teams that were put in ahead of them. If PSU and SLU make it, non story."
Click to expand...

Ah, well I meant it but didn't say it, that's on me lol. I stand by the (tiny bit trollish) point that the big story isn't necessarily that Minnesota didn't get in, but who got in above them and fairly justified thoughts that Min had a better resume, particularly vs. UMD.
 
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