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NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Hey, before you get too carried away, the vaunted UWRF team that I saw on Friday night would have a very tough time keeping up with Elmira...
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

That's why I said "Friday", not "this weekend." If it is OK to overlook what RF did on Friday, then I think we can overlook what RIT did against Oswego. I think I'll post a poll this week and put RIT back at #1.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

spike said:
That's why I said "Friday", not "this weekend." If it is OK to overlook what RF did on Friday, then I think we can overlook what RIT did against Oswego. I think I'll post a poll this week and put RIT back at #1.
Click to expand...

oh no don't do that ! Is that supposed to scare me ? I don't know. Did River Falls lose to SNC?
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Actually I'm the one who's scared. A RF loss at this point knocks an Eastern team out of an at-large bid.

All kidding aside, RF looked really good on Saturday, but you must admit they were sleep walking a little bit on Friday. I can't remember any sequence in that game where RF put two passes together without losing control of the puck. I will be pulling for them big time next weekend.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

spike said:
Actually I'm the one who's scared. A RF loss at this point knocks an Eastern team out of an at-large bid.

All kidding aside, RF looked really good on Saturday, but you must admit they were sleep walking a little bit on Friday. I can't remember any sequence in that game where RF put two passes together without losing control of the puck. I will be pulling for them big time next weekend.
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I completely agree with this comment. Right now it looks like a 5-2 split if RF keeps winning.

In watching RF Friday night, while I know they can play better, I will say the biggest thing to watch will be how they do against the East is their skating.

I think that although their passing and their flow of play was off a bit, and they certainly rebounded well Saturday, if they will have a problem with the Eastern teams it will be if they can stay up.

They certainly are as strong or stronger physically, have good hands and good systems, but while they are not bad skaters, they seem to be a little slower.

Just my 2 cents, but we will see in a few weeks, I may be wrong and it won't be the first time. Here is to great hockey over the next 3 weeks!!
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Plugger said:
I completely agree with this comment. Right now it looks like a 5-2 split if RF keeps winning.

In watching RF Friday night, while I know they can play better, I will say the biggest thing to watch will be how they do against the East is their skating.

I think that although their passing and their flow of play was off a bit, and they certainly rebounded well Saturday, if they will have a problem with the Eastern teams it will be if they can stay up.

They certainly are as strong or stronger physically, have good hands and good systems, but while they are not bad skaters, they seem to be a little slower.

Just my 2 cents, but we will see in a few weeks, I may be wrong and it won't be the first time. Here is to great hockey over the next 3 weeks!!
Click to expand...

Although there are people that disagree with me. IMHO, River Falls is a lock unless Plattsburgh and RIT are both knocked off in the ECAC West playoffs. That's the only scenario I think that could even come close from preventing River Falls from getting in if they lose in the NCHA.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
Although there are people that disagree with me. IMHO, River Falls is a lock unless Plattsburgh and RIT are both knocked off in the ECAC West playoffs. That's the only scenario I think that could even come close from preventing River Falls from getting in if they lose in the NCHA.
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I'd agree that Plattsburgh is pretty much guaranteed a spot in the NCAA's as is RIT. I also agree that River Falls is. I guess the most interesting scenario is how does Plattsburgh compare with River Falls?
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

gojackets said:
I'd agree that Plattsburgh is pretty much guaranteed a spot in the NCAA's as is RIT. I also agree that River Falls is. I guess the most interesting scenario is how does Plattsburgh compare with River Falls?
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Plattsburgh vs Wisconsin-River Falls
WIN 0.8200 0 0.9259 1
SOS 0.5575 1 0.5230 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 6-3-0 (.625) 0 8-0-2 (.900) 1
PTS 1 2

Right now River Falls would win the primary criteria 2-1. For this matter, River Falls actually wins the primary criteria against RIT too, 2-1.

They have a common opponent in Adrian though so if Adrian was the team that knocked River Falls off, RIT would win common opponents.
 
Last edited:
PrezdeJohnson09 said:
Plattsburgh vs Wisconsin-River Falls
WIN 0.8200 0 0.9259 1
SOS 0.5575 1 0.5230 0
H2H 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
COP 0- 0- 0 0 0- 0- 0 0
RNK 6-3-0 (.625) 0 8-0-2 (.900) 1
PTS 1 2

Right now River Falls would win the primary criteria 2-1. For this matter, River Falls actually wins the primary criteria against RIT too, 2-1.

They have a common opponent in Adrian though so if Adrian was the team that knocked River Falls off, RIT would win common opponents.
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I agree that RF should be a lock, but if they lose the conference we're looking at a 4-3 split, so if Platty and RIT lose, one will get bounced, or am I missing something?
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

spike said:
I agree that RF should be a lock, but if they lose the conference we're looking at a 4-3 split, so if Platty and RIT lose, one will get bounced, or am I missing something?
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I know no team would ever tank a playoff game, except maybe the oswego men, but if it is Plattsburgh/RIT in the ECAC-W championship game it would probably serve River Falls better to lose in the NCHA title game. They would definitely recieve a bye into the Frozen Four and most likely end up hosting the whole thing.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

gojackets said:
I know no team would ever tank a playoff game, except maybe the oswego men, but if it is Plattsburgh/RIT in the ECAC-W championship game it would probably serve River Falls better to lose in the NCHA title game. They would definitely recieve a bye into the Frozen Four and most likely end up hosting the whole thing.
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I know you are hypothetically speaking (at least I think you are), but it is never a good thing to lose going into the playoffs. Besides, I don't know any coach worth his or her salt that would tell their team to lose. What a crappy lesson that would be. I would love to see a coach in the locker room saying to do that.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

spike said:
I agree that RF should be a lock, but if they lose the conference we're looking at a 4-3 split, so if Platty and RIT lose, one will get bounced, or am I missing something?
Click to expand...

Based on the numbers...yes they should. But, that doesn't mean it will happen that way :)
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Here are this week's projections and let me start by saying the 3 NESCAC teams are a jumbled mess. There are some changes to the rankings which I really don't have an explanation for other than despite all three teams winning this weekend against lower tier NESCAC teams, something caused them to shift their order. Not exactly sure how but Amherst got a nice boost in the criteria this week.

EAST
1- RIT
2- Norwich
3- Plattsburgh
4- Amherst
5- Middlebury
6- Trinity
7- Elmira
8- Manhattanville
9- Neumann

WEST
1- UWRF
2- GAC
3- Adrian
4- UWS
5- UWEC
6- Concordia WI
7- Lake Forest

Pool A teams
ECAC East: Norwich
ECAC West: RIT
MIAC: GAC
NCHA: UWRF
NESCAC: Middlebury

Pool C eligible teams
EAST: Plattsburgh and Amherst
WEST: Adrian and UWS

Plattsburgh takes the first one easily which eliminates UWS so let's take a look at Adrian vs. Amherst

Code: 
    Adrian vs Amherst
WIN      0.7500  0           0.7500  0
SOS      0.5104  0           0.5554  1
H2H     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
COP     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
RNK     6- 3- 3  1          3- 4- 1  0

Well would you look what has happened here, Adrian gets two wins over previously ranked UWSP, which increased their RNK record and we have a real discussion here. This is close enough for me to go to the secondary criteria. This means including games against D2 and cross region teams.

Amherst adds a victory over St. Anselm.

Adrian adds wins over Cortland and Oswego, however they also add losses to Oswego and two to RIT. This not only crushes their win% but also brings their RNK to 6-5-3 which was the criteria that they had a big advantage in. It appears that games that were probably viewed as little more than an exhibition at the time by both teams involved have come back to haunt the Bulldogs. The final Pool C bid goes to Amherst. Also, for those wondering, Trinity would slightly edge out Adrian for a Pool C bid as well by going to secondary criteria if they happen to still be ranked ahead of Amherst once the rankings are released.

The Field....

EAST
1- RIT
2- Norwich
3- Plattsburgh
4- Amherst
5- Middlebury

WEST
1- UWRF
2- GAC

NCAA Quarterfinals
RIT- BYE
GAC @ UWRF
Middlebury @ Norwich
Amherst @ Plattsburgh

Also, at this point based on the criteria I expect RIT to host. Here is a look at the criteria between them and UWRF...

Code: 
    RIT vs Wisconsin-River Falls
WIN      0.9130  0           0.9259  1
SOS      0.5315  1           0.5230  0
H2H     0- 0- 0  0          0- 0- 0  0
COP     2- 0- 0  1          1- 0- 1  0
RNK     7- 0- 2  0          10- 0- 2  1

It's dead even, and when bringing in secondary criteria, RIT's win% will increase with the boost of 2 wins over Adrian. This will also increase their lead in SOS and make their RNK 9-0-2.

So, unless RIT gets knocked off in the ECAC West, it looks as though the finals will be heading to Rochester. Of course, there is plenty of hockey to be played between now and then.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

spike said:
That's why I said "Friday", not "this weekend." If it is OK to overlook what RF did on Friday, then I think we can overlook what RIT did against Oswego. I think I'll post a poll this week and put RIT back at #1.
Click to expand...

RF has played like that since they came back from their near month long break over Christmas. I haven't been impressed with their play, but they were able to stay undefeated in that time. I also think Fridays game served as a wake-up call. One loss and were done, I expect the Falcons to play at the level seen Saturday from now on, as I expect they now realize their back is against a wall and they must fight off every good team in the country.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Anyone know when the NCAA Regional Rankings are supposed to come out?
 
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