NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

[spike]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

I don't think Norwich has a very good shot at a Pool C even if they win.

A lot of their "good wins" this season get taking out by the NCAA.

Don't get me wrong. A win tonight will certainly help given Plattsburgh lost to the Panthers last week. However, I think it would help Midd a lot more than it would help Wick.

NU just doesn't have a chance at Pool C considerations because they lose a 1/5th of their season in the NCAA rankings and the ECAC East is a very weak league, especially when you throw out Saint A's and Holy Cross.

Clearly Midd needs the insurance more than Norwich. I agree that winning ECAC-E might be the Cadet's only way in, but for Norwich to lose the ECAC-E tournament would require an upset. Not to say it can't or won't happen, but it would clearly be an upset. Midd, on the other hand, could lose in NESCAC's. On paper it might be an upset, but there are 2-3 teams clearly good enough to win that one game.

 

[Plugger]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Here is an updated look at the projected rankings as well as the NCAA field.

East
1- RIT
2- Plattsburgh
3- Middlebury
4- Amherst
5- Norwich
6- Trinity
7- Elmira
8- Manhattanville
9- Bowdoin

West
1- Wis. River Falls
2- Gustavus Adolphus
3- Adrian
4- Wis. Superior
5- Wis. Eau Claire
6- Wis. Stevens Point

Pool A (Based on current #1 seeds in the standings)
Wis. River Falls
RIT
Amherst
Norwich
Gustavus Adolphus

Pool C Teams under consideration
East: Plattsburgh and Middlebury
West: Adrian and Wis. Superior

         Adrian vs Plattsburgh
WIN      0.7500  0           0.8043  1
SOS      0.5105  0           0.5602  1

Plattsburgh grabs the first Pool C bid. Next let's take a look at the final spot between Adrian and Middlebury.

         Adrian vs Middlebury
WIN      0.7500  0           0.8158  1
SOS      0.5105  0           0.5469  1

Middlebury takes the final spot for the NCAA field.

*For the record, if you give Middlebury the NESCAC title and compare Amherst against Adrian the results stay the same.

Which gives us....

East
1- RIT
2- Plattsburgh
3- Middlebury
4- Amherst
5- Norwich

West
1- Wis. River Falls
2- Gustavus Adolphus

NCAA Quarterfinals
RIT- BYE
Norwich @ Plattsburgh
Amherst @ Middlebury
GAC @ UWRF

Note: If UWRF beats GAC in this scenario I project them to be hosting the FF as they are the #1 overall seed. If they lose to GAC, hosting rights would go to RIT.

Where can you find the SOS for DIII Womens Hockey??

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Clearly Midd needs the insurance more than Norwich. I agree that winning ECAC-E might be the Cadet's only way in, but for Norwich to lose the ECAC-E tournament would require an upset. Not to say it can't or won't happen, but it would clearly be an upset. Midd, on the other hand, could lose in NESCAC's. On paper it might be an upset, but there are 2-3 teams clearly good enough to win that one game.

It would require a minor upset. Manhattanville is a funny duck this year but maybe this is the year they put their post season woes the last two years behind them and finally make it back to the ECAC East finals. All the pressure is now going to Norwich with hosting the tournament and having the home ice etc. Manhattanville owns a 6-1 record against the Cadets.

We'll see where the Valiants are at this season on Saturday in a likely tune up for what I expect to be the ECAC East championship game two weeks later.

 

[5 4 Fighting]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

It would require a minor upset. Manhattanville is a funny duck this year but maybe this is the year they put their post season woes the last two years behind them and finally make it back to the ECAC East finals. All the pressure is now going to Norwich with hosting the tournament and having the home ice etc. Manhattanville owns a 6-1 record against the Cadets.

We'll see where the Valiants are at this season on Saturday in a likely tune up for what I expect to be the ECAC East championship game two weeks later.

Beware the Pilgrims of New England...

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Beware the Pilgrims of New England...

Very true. Glad Manhattanville gets to deal with them and not us!

 

[spwood]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

The rankings are up....

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/icehockey-women/d3/regional_rankings

Looks like Adrian is getting love on the men's and women's side....#3 for the women and #2 for the men in the West.

Guess my only surprise is to see Elmira below Trinity, but I haven't really looked closely at the numbers.

 

[gojackets]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Looks like Adrian is getting love on the men's and women's side....#3 for the women and #2 for the men in the West.

It helps that 3 of Adrian's losses don't count, which ups their win %. They would win win% over the rest. They also own head to head over Superior, Eau Claire but lose that to Stevens Point.

Adrian is 3-2-2 against the ranked teams
Superior is 3-3-3
Eau Claire is 2-5-2
Point is 3-5-2 (play Gustavus tonight)
st Thomas is 1-5-1

Adrian has win % over all those teams, have H2H against most of them, and wins results against ranked .

it makes sense for Adrian to be 3

 

[Matt Rennell]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Here is an updated look at the projected rankings as well as the NCAA field.

East
1- RIT
2- Plattsburgh
3- Middlebury
4- Amherst
5- Norwich
6- Trinity
7- Elmira
8- Manhattanville
9- Bowdoin

West
1- Wis. River Falls
2- Gustavus Adolphus
3- Adrian
4- Wis. Superior
5- Wis. Eau Claire
6- Wis. Stevens Point

Now let's compare my projections to the actual rankings.

East
1- RIT
2- Plattsburgh
3- Middlebury
4- Norwich
5- Amherst
6- Trinity
7- Elmira
8- Manhattanville
9- Neumann

West
1- Wis. River Falls
2- Gustavus Adolphus
3- Adrian
4- Wis. Superior
5- Wis. Eau Claire
6- Wis. Stevens Point
7- St. Thomas

Well the East I pretty much nailed. Aside from flipping Norwich and Amherst (who I had dead even anyway), and Neumann in for Bowdoin it was spot on.

The west I got perfectly, except this year they added a 7th team to the rankings which I did not know of before. FWIW St. Thomas would have been my 7th team as well so I agree with the committee on that.

 

[gojackets]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

I told ya Norwich should be higher

 

[Matt Rennell]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Here is my take on this week's projection.

EAST
1- RIT
2- Plattsburgh
3- Norwich
4- Middlebury
5- Amherst
6- Trinity
7- Elmira
8- Manhattanville
9- Neumann

WEST
1- UWRF
2- GAC
3- Adrian
4- UWS
5- UWEC
6- Concordia WI.
7- Lake Forest

Pool A teams
UWRF
RIT
Norwich
Middlebury
GAC

Pool C teams under consideration
East: Plattsburgh and Amherst
West: Adrian and UWS

Plattsburgh and Amherst take these spots pretty easily.

Giving us a field of...

RIT- BYE
GAC @ UWRF
Amherst @ Plattsburgh
Middlebury @ Norwich

RIT's win vs. Elmira combined with UWRF's SOS decreasing by a large amount has put them dead even in the criteria. In fact, the huge lead UWRF has in SOS is now gone as RIT has overtaken them in that category. At this point, RIT's SOS is only going to increase while UWRF looks like it will decrease. If both teams win out it looks as though RIT will get hosting rights.

That said, GAC has put themselves right back in the Pool C race if they lose the MIAC. In fact, if the season ended today and they did lose the MIAC I have them ousting Amherst for the final Pool C spot which would give us a 4/3 split looking something like this....

UWRF- BYE and hosting
MIAC winner @ GAC
Middlebury @ RIT
Norwich @ Plattsburgh

 

[FALCONSANNOUNCER]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Here is my take on this week's projection.

EAST
1- RIT
2- Plattsburgh
3- Norwich
4- Middlebury
5- Amherst
6- Trinity
7- Elmira
8- Manhattanville
9- Neumann

WEST
1- UWRF
2- GAC
3- Adrian
4- UWS
5- UWEC
6- Concordia WI.
7- Lake Forest

Pool A teams
UWRF
RIT
Norwich
Middlebury
GAC

Pool C teams under consideration
East: Plattsburgh and Amherst
West: Adrian and UWS

Plattsburgh and Amherst take these spots pretty easily.

Giving us a field of...

RIT- BYE
GAC @ UWRF
Amherst @ Plattsburgh
Middlebury @ Norwich

RIT's win vs. Elmira combined with UWRF's SOS decreasing by a large amount has put them dead even in the criteria. In fact, the huge lead UWRF has in SOS is now gone as RIT has overtaken them in that category. At this point, RIT's SOS is only going to increase while UWRF looks like it will decrease. If both teams win out it looks as though RIT will get hosting rights.

That said, GAC has put themselves right back in the Pool C race if they lose the MIAC. In fact, if the season ended today and they did lose the MIAC I have them ousting Amherst for the final Pool C spot which would give us a 4/3 split looking something like this....

UWRF- BYE and hosting
MIAC winner @ GAC
Middlebury @ RIT
Norwich @ Plattsburgh

Here's to GAC losing then. Still, if they don't and UWRF goes undefeated and doesn't host it will be a shame.

 

[rinky dink]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Here's to GAC losing then. Still, if they don't and UWRF goes undefeated and doesn't host it will be a shame.

With GAC being an above average team this year, seems funny that a loss would improve the amount of western teams in the NCAA.

Funny that Trinity, that is not mentioned anywhere and traveled to GAC and tied them in their own rink, is not mentioned anywhere in the mix.

Let's just hope the best teams make the NCAA's and teams do not back in the way some people may want that to happen.

 

[gojackets]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Let's just hope the best teams make the NCAA's and teams do not back in the way some people may want that to happen.

Ya cuz thats never happened to favor the east before. Elmira, Amherst, Trinity are on the same level as GAC, UWS, Adrian any of those teams would be deserving of the NCAA field. I don't see Amherst can be a lock with only 1 significant win.


Matt---hate to make your brain work. What happens if Amherst wins the NESCAC and someone other than River Falls wins the NCHA. Would River Falls get in over Middlebury?

 

[Matt Rennell]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Ya cuz thats never happened to favor the east before. Elmira, Amherst, Trinity are on the same level as GAC, UWS, Adrian any of those teams would be deserving of the NCAA field. I don't see Amherst can be a lock with only 1 significant win.


Matt---hate to make your brain work. What happens if Amherst wins the NESCAC and someone other than River Falls wins the NCHA. Would River Falls get in over Middlebury?

How does Amherst only have 1 significant win? They beat Trinity, Elmira, and Middlebury. They also tied Trinity and Plattsburgh.

Compare that with with the 2 teams up for Pool C from the west...

Adrian beat UWS, and UWEC twice and tied UWS and UWRF.
UWS beat UWEC and Lake Forest and tied Adrian, UWEC, Lake Forest, Concordia WI, and UWRF.

If UWS wins even half of those ties they would have a shot.

Secondly, that isn't even close. UWRF would easily get in over Middlebury. In fact, at this point I am comfortable enough to call UWRF a lock for the NCAA's. I am almost ready to call RIT a lock as well, the only way I could potentially see RIT left on the outside would be if UWRF lost in the NCHA finals. RIT lost in the ECAC Semis and Plattsburgh beat Elmira in the semis but lost in the ECAC West title game. That could potentially put Plattsburgh ahead of RIT but that scenario is so out there it doesn't stand a chance of happening.

 

[gojackets]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

How does Amherst only have 1 significant win? They beat Trinity, Elmira, and Middlebury. They also tied Trinity and Plattsburgh.

I know Superior killed themselves by not winning all those games. Elmira and Trinity are ranked, but Elmira isn't that significant of a win to me. Again, the only reason they are there is beause they play a tough schedule, but lose. same thing with Trinity...they beat Norwich and Manhattanville(again ranked, but clearly 2nd fiddle to Norwich in the ECACE), but thats it

I'm just trying to point out, that these teams are in the same boat as some of the western teams. There clearly second tier in their region. Would replacing Amherst with an NCHA team really be that devastating? Christ 6 of the 7 teams that you have ranked in the west come from the NCHA.

 

[Matt Rennell]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

I know Superior killed themselves by not winning all those games. Elmira and Trinity are ranked, but Elmira isn't that significant of a win to me. Again, the only reason they are there is beause they play a tough schedule, but lose. same thing with Trinity...they beat Norwich and Manhattanville(again ranked, but clearly 2nd fiddle to Norwich in the ECACE), but thats it

I'm just trying to point out, that these teams are in the same boat as some of the western teams. There clearly second tier in their region. Would replacing Amherst with an NCHA team really be that devastating? Christ 6 of the 7 teams that you have ranked in the west come from the NCHA.

You don't think a win against Elmira is a quality win? If so, what exactly do you consider a quality win? Do you consider wins against UWEC and Lake Forest significant? I sure don't but I listed them there because they are ranked.

The fact that 6 of the 7 teams ranked are from the NCHA says more about the weakness of the MIAC than the strength of the NCHA. There are only 2 conferences in the West. Someone has to be ranked. The fact is, after UWRF and GAC there is a huge drop off in quality of teams to choose from in the west this season. Amherst, Trinity and Elmira have also fallen back somewhat but they are still well ahead of the 3rd best team in the west.

To further prove this, take a look at how the #3 west team Adrian did when they played eastern teams this year. They went 2-3 with wins over Cortland and Oswego and losses to Oswego and RIT twice. On the surface, you can say, well Oswego beat RIT as well. But if you take a look at the shot totals in those games it becomes more clear what level they are at.

Over two games Adrian got outshot by Oswego 55-43. They also got outshot by RIT 87-27. Compared to Elmira outshooting Oswego 74-43 and getting outshot by RIT 77-47. Now, I will be the first one to say shots don't tell the whole story, but it certainly gives a great deal of info on the quality of a team especially when the difference is so great. In addition, Elmira was outscored 9-6 in those 4 games while Adrian was outscored 15-5.

I realize shots and goals have nothing to do with NCAA criteria (nor should they) but when trying to compare teams across regions common opponents is the best way to do so.

So, while it may not be a big deal to you to add another western team to the field in place of Amherst, it certainly would be to Amherst who is a far more deserving team this year. Essentially what you just did is beg for charity by wanting a western team in for an eastern team even if they don't deserve it. Have we really resorted to this?

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

I know Superior killed themselves by not winning all those games. Elmira and Trinity are ranked, but Elmira isn't that significant of a win to me. Again, the only reason they are there is beause they play a tough schedule, but lose. same thing with Trinity...they beat Norwich and Manhattanville(again ranked, but clearly 2nd fiddle to Norwich in the ECACE), but thats it

I'm just trying to point out, that these teams are in the same boat as some of the western teams. There clearly second tier in their region. Would replacing Amherst with an NCHA team really be that devastating? Christ 6 of the 7 teams that you have ranked in the west come from the NCHA.

I find it funny that you're so adamant that the western teams you list are as good as the Eastern teams when history doesn't support your claim. I'm not saying they are or aren't and clearly I haven't seen any of the top western teams this year. However, I did speak with a coach who talked to the head coach of Adrian (who is the only team to play RIT and River Falls this year) and she said that RIT is the superior team.

 

[notfromaroundhere]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

I find it funny that you're so adamant that the western teams you list are as good as the Eastern teams when history doesn't support your claim. I'm not saying they are or aren't and clearly I haven't seen any of the top western teams this year. However, I did speak with a coach who talked to the head coach of Adrian (who is the only team to play RIT and River Falls this year) and she said that RIT is the superior team.

Is this like "Who is on first?"

 

[frosty2114]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

I have a question, being new to the DIII frozen four hosting situation......Is there any realistic chance that UWRF would host the FF, in any scenario, based upon the fact that the frozen four was in Minnesota last year? Last year Amherst was the first place team and lost their home ice hosting rights because there was a pre-arranged agreement about having the frozen four in Minnesota. So, would the NCAA bear the expense to have the FF in the west two years in a row? And is there any chance that hosting rights would go to Plattsburgh, if they won the ECAC West Championships?

Thanks for any clarification and /or opinions!

 

[FALCONSANNOUNCER]

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

I have a question, being new to the DIII frozen four hosting situation......Is there any realistic chance that UWRF would host the FF, in any scenario, based upon the fact that the frozen four was in Minnesota last year? Last year Amherst was the first place team and lost their home ice hosting rights because there was a pre-arranged agreement about having the frozen four in Minnesota. So, would the NCAA bear the expense to have the FF in the west two years in a row? And is there any chance that hosting rights would go to Plattsburgh, if they won the ECAC West Championships?

Thanks for any clarification and /or opinions!

It sucks to say, but I feel it will be either RIT or Plattsburgh who hosts, whichever one wins the ECAC West. It would be rough to go undefeated and lose hosting rights, but I'm not holding my breath that we would get it. The only other potential option I see may be a GAC @ UWRF quarterfinal and if UWRF wins its in River Falls if not at ECAC West Champion. But the chances of that happening are slim in my mind, because they would have to hold seats both for a flight east and three flights west. I'm guessing they will just have it out east and hold that one group of seats for either GAC or UWRF.