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NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

Matt Rennell said:
You don't think a win against Elmira is a quality win? If so, what exactly do you consider a quality win? Do you consider wins against UWEC and Lake Forest significant? I sure don't but I listed them there because they are ranked.

The fact that 6 of the 7 teams ranked are from the NCHA says more about the weakness of the MIAC than the strength of the NCHA. There are only 2 conferences in the West. Someone has to be ranked. The fact is, after UWRF and GAC there is a huge drop off in quality of teams to choose from in the west this season. Amherst, Trinity and Elmira have also fallen back somewhat but they are still well ahead of the 3rd best team in the west.

To further prove this, take a look at how the #3 west team Adrian did when they played eastern teams this year. They went 2-3 with wins over Cortland and Oswego and losses to Oswego and RIT twice. On the surface, you can say, well Oswego beat RIT as well. But if you take a look at the shot totals in those games it becomes more clear what level they are at.

Over two games Adrian got outshot by Oswego 55-43. They also got outshot by RIT 87-27. Compared to Elmira outshooting Oswego 74-43 and getting outshot by RIT 77-47. Now, I will be the first one to say shots don't tell the whole story, but it certainly gives a great deal of info on the quality of a team especially when the difference is so great. In addition, Elmira was outscored 9-6 in those 4 games while Adrian was outscored 15-5.

I realize shots and goals have nothing to do with NCAA criteria (nor should they) but when trying to compare teams across regions common opponents is the best way to do so.

So, while it may not be a big deal to you to add another western team to the field in place of Amherst, it certainly would be to Amherst who is a far more deserving team this year. Essentially what you just did is beg for charity by wanting a western team in for an eastern team even if they don't deserve it. Have we really resorted to this?
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Matt - Thanks so much for a clear and reasonable answer. You always back your answers with statistical information, and there is no question that you answer in an unbiased way. Clear, concise and factual......really appreciated.

Also, is there a place we can find out where we can see the DIII strength of schedule for each team, or is that something that must be calculated for each team?

Keep up the great work!!
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

frosty2114 said:
I have a question, being new to the DIII frozen four hosting situation......Is there any realistic chance that UWRF would host the FF, in any scenario, based upon the fact that the frozen four was in Minnesota last year? Last year Amherst was the first place team and lost their home ice hosting rights because there was a pre-arranged agreement about having the frozen four in Minnesota. So, would the NCAA bear the expense to have the FF in the west two years in a row? And is there any chance that hosting rights would go to Plattsburgh, if they won the ECAC West Championships?

Thanks for any clarification and /or opinions!
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Amherst couldn't host the NCAA FF anyways.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

rinky dink said:
Matt - Thanks so much for a clear and reasonable answer. You always back your answers with statistical information, and there is no question that you answer in an unbiased way. Clear, concise and factual......really appreciated.

Also, is there a place we can find out where we can see the DIII strength of schedule for each team, or is that something that must be calculated for each team?

Keep up the great work!!
Click to expand...

Yup, right here.

If you click on the column that says "SOS Rk" it will sort it by the SOS calculation the NCAA uses.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
Amherst couldn't host the NCAA FF anyways.
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Because of their facilities right? I forgot about that.....but would the FF still have been in Minnesota, no matter who the first place team was last year, because they threw the west a bone? Like I said I am new to this, and it is still confusing to me :), and I am trying to be somewhat prepared that "IF" my daughter's team makes the FF, I want to know if I should entertain the possiblity of buying tickets to Wisconsin.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

It's tough to predict becasuse we've never had a situation where a western team was undefeated before and an Eastern team wasn't.

I have entertained the thought of it being in the west. I think the best chance of it happening would be if River Falls lost in their conference finals though so that way they would be forced to take three western teams with one getting a bye and hosting the FF.

If RF and GAC win though and RIT wins the ECAC West, I think it has to be in Rochester.

I think Norwich still has an outside shot in all this as well if they run the table and RIT/Plattsburgh both were to lose in the ECAC West playoffs. I could see Wick being the host. Even if Plattsburgh were to win the ECAC West, I could see Wick as having an OUTSIDE shot at hosting. Maybe give Plattsburgh the bye but then have the FF at Norwich for a new venue if Norwich won their quarterfinal.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

So correct me if I'm wrong (I may be reading it wrong) but I've seen two instances (Prez and Falcons) giving scenarios referring to a team hosting if they win a quarterfinal....Isn't the hosting site announced at the same time that all of the teams, along with byes, and quarterfinal games are announced?
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

hahaha said:
So correct me if I'm wrong (I may be reading it wrong) but I've seen two instances (Prez and Falcons) giving scenarios referring to a team hosting if they win a quarterfinal....Isn't the hosting site announced at the same time that all of the teams, along with byes, and quarterfinal games are announced?
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Not always. The year Plattsburgh went undefeated there were 3 western teams and Gustavus was given the first round bye. They didnt announce the host until after the first round to see if Plattsburgh won or not.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
It's tough to predict becasuse we've never had a situation where a western team was undefeated before and an Eastern team wasn't.

I have entertained the thought of it being in the west. I think the best chance of it happening would be if River Falls lost in their conference finals though so that way they would be forced to take three western teams with one getting a bye and hosting the FF.

If RF and GAC win though and RIT wins the ECAC West, I think it has to be in Rochester.

I think Norwich still has an outside shot in all this as well if they run the table and RIT/Plattsburgh both were to lose in the ECAC West playoffs. I could see Wick being the host. Even if Plattsburgh were to win the ECAC West, I could see Wick as having an OUTSIDE shot at hosting. Maybe give Plattsburgh the bye but then have the FF at Norwich for a new venue if Norwich won their quarterfinal.
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Full disclosure: where do you work again? :rolleyes: No bias here, huh? ;) I see either Rochester or River Falls hosts.....I can't see Plattsburgh hosting and I really can't see it getting all the way down to Norwich.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

spwood said:
Full disclosure: where do you work again? :rolleyes: No bias here, huh? ;) I see either Rochester or River Falls hosts.....I can't see Plattsburgh hosting and I really can't see it getting all the way down to Norwich.
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Now do you believe it :)

Norwich up to #2 in the rankings. It's actually not too surprising looking at the numbers.

Norwich passed Plattsburgh in winning percentage and common opponents with that huge Middlebury win on Tuesday.

That was arguably the biggest win of the season to-date for the Cadets since it jumped them past two teams and prevented them from falling a spot or two if they lost.

Norwich won the comparison with Plattsburgh 2-1. The only thing Plattsburgh has on Norwich is strength of schedule by .25. Which is a pretty good margin and has the potential to get bigger during the conference playoffs when Norwich has to play Nichols and either Salve or UMass Boston while Plattsburgh will play Elmira most likely and then RIT.

Now, if Plattsburgh were to win the ECAC West, they will likely jump Norwich no matter what the Cadets do because Plattsburgh would get two wins against Elmira and RIT, who are both common opponents with Norwich.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

There is a link post #52.

Sorry, It's not working now. Odd it worked less than 10 minutes ago.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

gojackets said:
Where do you see the new rankings?
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Looks like they took them down.

I didn't get them posted or printed off in time before they took them down. They had formatting issues with the men's ones.

The Women's East was as follows IIRC

1.RIT
2.Norwich
3.Plattsburgh
4.Middlebury

After that I honestly don't remember.
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

PrezdeJohnson09 said:
Looks like they took them down.

I didn't get them posted or printed off in time before they took them down. They had formatting issues with the men's ones.

The Women's East was as follows IIRC

1.RIT
2.Norwich
3.Plattsburgh
4.Middlebury

After that I honestly don't remember.
Click to expand...

5. Trinity
6. Amherst
7. Elmira

After that, I honestly don't remember

Top 3 in the west were River Falls, GAC, and Adrain
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

They're back up


1 Rochester Institute of Technology 20-1-2 22-1-2
2 Norwich 16-3-1 21-3-1
3 Plattsburgh State 19-3-3 19-3-3
4 Middlebury 17-4-1 18-4-1
5 Trinity (Conn.) 14-3-3 17-3-4
6 Amherst 16-5-2 17-5-2
7 Elmira 16-7-2 16-7-2
8 Manhattanville 12-6-2 16-7-2
9 Neumann 12-6-4 15-6-4
WEST
1 Wisconsin-River Falls 22-0-3 22-0-3
2 Gustavus Adolphus 17-3-2 17-3-3
3 Adrian 13-4-3 15-7-3
4 Wisconsin-Superior 12-6-7 12-6-7
5 Wisconsin-Eau Claire 13-7-5 13-7-5
6 Wisconsin-Stevens Point 13-9-3 13-9-3
7 Concordia (Wis.)
Click to expand...
 
Re: NCAA DIII Rankings Projections

FWIW here is the ranked teams RNK...

East
1- RIT 7-0-2
2- Norwich 5-3-0
3- Plattsburgh 6-3-3
4- Middlebury 3-4-1
5- Trinity 2-2-2
6- Amherst 3-4-2
7- Elmira 4-6-1
8- Manhattanville 1-4-1
9- Neumann 0-5-2

West
1- UWRF 10-0-2
2- GAC 6-2-0
3- Adrian 4-3-3
4- UWS 3-5-5
5- UWEC 3-5-3
6- UWSP 3-7-3
7- Concordia WI. 3-6-3
 
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