UNH 36 - 38 [1]
BC 33 - 35 [2]
--- Home Lock - 28+ (BU) ---
ME 28 - 30 [3-5]
UML 27 - 29 [3-5]
--- In - 26+ (UVM/UMA/NU) ---
BU 26 - 28 [3-9]
--- Home Eligible - 27+ (UML) ---
MC 25 - 27 [5-9]
UVM 24 - 26 [5-9]
NU 24 - 26 [5-9]
UMA 24 - 26 [6-9]
--- Out - 24+ (UVM/UMA/NU) ---
PC 13 - 15 [10]
Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - @BC
BC - UNH
ME – UMA
UML - UVM
UVM - @UML
NU - BU
BU - @NU
MC - PC
UMA - @ME
PC – @MC
UNH 1
BC 2
...
PC 10
Now lets move on to the filler in that seedings sandwich.
Maine can still be 3, 4, or 5. Either UML or BU can bump ME down with a win and a ME loss. If they both do it, Maine is 5th. If only one does it, Maine is 4th. If neither does it, or there's one pt for the Black Bears, then they're 3rd.
UML has clinched a spot in the playoffs, but no one below them has (we'll get there). They can be 3rd with a win and a ME loss. They can be 4th with a win and a ME tie or win, or just staying one point ahead of BU. In a two-way tie with BU or ME, UML loses. In a two way with MC, UML wins. In a three-way tie with BU and ME, the order is BU/ME/UML. In a three-way tie with BU and MC, the order is BU/UML/MC. Since no one else can catch UML and MC loses every tie (which is the best they can do), then UML is also locked in to 3, 4, or 5.
I'll come back to BU in a moment.
MC loses all combinations of tbs to the teams above them (UML, BU), so they need to pass either to move up. Since they can't pass UML, they can't get home ice and the best they can hope for is a win and a BU loss to seed them 5th. With a loss, MC could be passed outright by any combination of the teams behind them, letting them drop as low as 9th.
For the other 3 (UMA, NU, UVM), they can no longer reach UML, so the search for 4th place and Home Ice is over. They could each lose and be passed by the other two - leaving them 9th and out - or get points and jump up as far as 26. At 25, MC loses the tb to NU, but wins it over UMA and UVM. NU wins over UMA and MC, but loses to UVM. UMA wins over UVM, but loses to MC and NU. UVM beats NU, but loses to both UMA and MC. Adding BU into the mix at 26 shows BU winning UMA and MC, but losing UVM and NU (for BU to be 26, they lose the last game, and series to NU). The combinations here are so mixed, that by the time I scripted them all out, it would be almost game time tomorrow. OK, not really, but it just seems overkill when we could wait 16-ish hours for the games to start and see where the chips fall.
I will say this: The two-way matches are above. If everyone keeps their relative position in the logjam now at 24, that breaks out as a round-robin 3-3-0 record, moving the tb decision to the 2nd tier, league wins. In that case, the order is UMA, NU, UVM. In an odd twist, once the first team is removed from the tb (see "The question" under BU below) by League Wins, the order of the other two will flip because NU beats the team above them, but loses to the team behind them. That means NU is top of the three if working from the bottom up, but last if working from the top down.
For those that want an example, here's the most varied...
BU is in the interesting position of still being able to not only get home ice, but be 3rd seed, while still being able to drop out of the playoffs on a four way tie-breaker. At the top of the scale, a BU win, Maine loss, and UML non-win, BU is 3rd. BU would drop to 4th with either a ME point or UML win (but not both) swapped into the above scenario. Add both a ME pt and a UML win to a BU win and BU drops to 5th.
A BU tie could put them 4th or 5th. In a two-way tie with either UML or MC, BU wins. In a three-way tie, the order is BU/UML/MC. Like UML, at 27 points (a tie), BU would be out of reach of everyone below MC and MC loses all the tbs, so with a win or tie, BU is - like ME and UML - 3rd, 4th, or 5th.
However...
A BU loss leaves them within striking distance of everyone behind them still in contention. NU would, by definition have tied them and taken the tb. That could put BU 6th. MC could pass them with a win. That could make them 7th. UMA could reach 24 and tie BU/NU. The H2H tb with BU and UMA is now irrelevant, since BU and NU would have to both be at 24 for a UMA tie to matter. In that three-way tie, the order would be NU (4-2-0) / BU (3-3-0) / UMA (2-4-0). That would leave BU at 7th behind a MC win and a lost tb to NU. A UVM win would draw them even as well. Similarly to UMA, the H2H tb w/ UVM gives way to the three-way tie with NU and UVM, in which the order would be UVM (4-1-1) / NU (3-3-0) / BU (1-4-1), putting BU 8th, but still in the playoffs. However, if BU gets caught by all three of NU, UVM and UMA, the first pass at the tb shakes out as follows UVM (5-3-1) / NU (5-4-0) / UMA (4-5-0) / BU (3-5-1). Add an MC win into that mix and the loser of that four-way tb is 9th and out.
The question for BU is: in a three- (or more) way tie, does HE promote the top team or eliminate the bottom team before comparing the smaller group? The HE website says "reduce the number of teams tied". If memory serves when this has come up in the past, HE drops people off the bottom and works their way up.** If that is true, then the 0-2-1 record against UVM drops BU out from a field otherwise comprised of 2-1/1-2 splits. That makes them 9th and done. If they promote from the top, then UVM gets the higher seed (6th) similarly by virtue of their 2-0-1 with BU, but they take that out of the pool with them when they go. Then NU would be 4-2-0, BU 3-3-0, and UMA 2-4-0 and eventually UMA would drop out.
In a five-way tie (adding in MC after a PC tie), the first pass tb order is: NU (7-5-0) / MC (6-5-1) / UVM (5-5-2) / BU (5-6-1) / UMA (5-7-0).
Imagine the following scenario:
UMA has beaten ME. UVM has beaten UML. MC has beaten PC. BU and NU are in OT...
If BU scores, they are 3rd - Home Ice. If neither scores, BU is 4th - Home Ice. If NU scores, BU is 9th and their season is over.
Seen from the other side: If BU scores, NU is 9th and out. If neither scores, NU is 9th and out. If NU scores, they are 6th (counting from bottom up), and in the playoffs.
That leaves the top two teams in the league last year playing an elimination game in the final game of the RS this year, but the winner would not be 8th, or even 7th.
It also is reminiscent of the scenario at the end of 03-04 where BU need a win at UNH to stay ahead of tbs with NU for the 8th and final spot. As time ticked away in OT at the Whitt, fans in the know were starting to wonder how long Parker would go before pulling his goalie in a tie game. We never got to find out when he would have pulled, but it would have been later than "half way" because BU's David van der Gulik scored at 2:30 of OT for the win.
In this case, one would have to think that Cronin would be the one on the hook for giving the hook.
