Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

UNH 32 - 40 [1-4]
--- Home Lock - 31 (BU/NU) ---
--- In - 28 (Field) ---
BC 26 - 36 [1-9]
ME 26 - 34 [1-9]
BU 24 - 32 [2-9]
NU 23 - 33 [1-9]
UMA 22 - 28 [2-9]
UML 22 - 30 [2-9]
MC 21 - 31 [2-9]
UVM 20 - 28 [2-9]
--- Home Eligible - 26 (BU/NU) ---
--- Out - 21 (MC) ---
PC 12 - 20 [10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - @NU/NU, BC/@BC
BC - NU, MC, UMA, @UNH/UNH
ME – @MCx2, UMAx2
BU - @UVMx2, NU/@NU
NU - @BC, UNH/@UNH, @BU/BU
UMA - @BC, @MEx2
UML - PC/@PC, UVMx2
MC - @BC, MEx2, @PC/PC
UVM - BUx2, @UMLx2
PC – @UML/UML, MC/@MC

A PC loss combined with 2-of-3 of a MC win and any pts for UVM or UML would end PC's hopes for a post season. Slim margin for error.

All four of those things happened. PC lost. MC won. UML won. UVM tied. PC is done and in fact, locked into 10th.

BU is right on the cusp in both directions with still being able to get 1st and still being able to fall to 10th, ... . One point ... in either direction, and their range starts to move.

UNH tied and BU beat PC. BU can no longer pass UNH and can no longer be caught by PC. Their range tightens from both ends.

UNH's range, however, doesn't move because their possible drop to 4th was based on either BU or NU being able to pass, but not both. Idle NU could still pass, even if BU no longer can.

BC was also idle in preparation for Sunday's match with NU. Maine lost to UML and MC beat UMA, all helping to knot the pack even tighter. Six points separate eight teams and 2nd place from 9th. Only four points separate six teams and 2nd from 7th. If NU should beat BC Sunday, the four teams sitting 2nd through 5th will be within TWO points of each other. As it is, it's a whopping three points.

BU's win moves the Home Eligible line to 26, with NU/BU pending. MC's win not only gets them past UVM, but also moves the Out line past PC's max. UML's result puts them in a tie with UMA, but UMA holds the first and second tbs.

MC seems to have gotten over their "road" block by taking 5 of the last 6 points on the road. That new confidence may come in handy as they play at Conte on Tuesday, before having three of their final four games at home. Similarly, BC has four of their final five at home and UML also has three of four at Tsongas.

On the flip side of that, UMA played their last home game tonight. The final three are on the road - at Conte and Alfond, no less. BU has three of their final four away from home, where NU has three of five away. That said, after their Sunday game a cab (or T) ride from home at Conte, they go into a pair of home-and-homes.

If I think of anything else, I'll add it to the thread after NU@BC, which should shift things around considerably - or very little...

 

[Mark Laliberte]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

It's amazing to believe that, if NU wins today, that teams 2-9 would be <i>six</i> points of each other with two weekends left. It also tells me there will be no gimmes in the quarterfinal round (even for UNH, who could conceivably be the first HE RS champion to miss the NCAA tourney ).

 

[Todd]

Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

UNH 32 - 40 [1-3]
--- Home Lock - 31+ (BU/NU/MC/UML) ---
BC 28 - 36 [1-7]
--- In - 27+ (UVM/UML/BU/NU) ---
ME 26 - 34 [1-9]
BU 24 - 32 [2-9]
NU 23 - 31 [2-9]
UMA 22 - 28 [3-9]
UML 22 - 30 [2-9]
MC 21 - 31 [2-9]
UVM 20 - 28 [2-9]
--- Home Eligible - 26 (BU/NU) ---
--- Out - 21 (MC) ---
PC 12 - 20 [10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - @NU/NU, BC/@BC
BC - MC, UMA, @UNH/UNH
ME – @MCx2, UMAx2
BU - @UVMx2, NU/@NU
NU - UNH/@UNH, @BU/BU
UMA - @BC, @MEx2
UML - PC/@PC, UVMx2
MC - @BC, MEx2, @PC/PC
UVM - BUx2, @UMLx2
PC – @UML/UML, MC/@MC

BC's win gets them to the In line of 28 that we had going into the day, which puts them into the playoffs. Since they now have reached UMA's max and have that tb, that means that UMA can no longer reach 2nd. They have also reached UVM's max, but lose that tb, so UVM could still get a higher seed than BC. However, for UVM to reach that max, UML would max out at 27, so BC can't be caught by both UVM and UML, meaning that they can't fall below 7th.

NU's loss drops their max below what UNH has in the bank, so add them to the list of teams that can no longer reach the Wildcats, or first place, and UNH can fall no lower than 3rd.

That leaves the top slot down to a race between UNH, BC and Maine.

It'll be hard for the Black Bears to get there, however, because they are now trailing both teams and the other two still face off for a pair, so someone has to get points to keep their lead over Maine even if the Bears win. That said, that H2H also makes it easier for Maine to reach second for the reciprocal reason - one of the two leaders has to lose points, too. Maine is closer to BC, but loses that tb. If they can somehow close up the six point gap on UNH, they hold that tb by virtue of the recent sweep. Unfortunately for Maine, they have only taken two of a possible eight points since that sweep, so it's going to be a harder hill to climb than it seemed it would be two weeks ago.

The Husky loss further means that they dropped a golden opportunity to control the race for the final Home Ice slot. Even a tie today would have drawn them even with BU for 4th. If their record next weekend against UNH (home-and-home) at least matched what the Terriers could pull out of a Fri-Sun two-gamer @ UVM, then they would go into the final weekend tied up with a (not necessarily 4th) seed-deciding H2H home-and-home. Since NU won the first HE meeting with BU, all they'd need would be a split to get the higher seed over BU. Since they're a point back, the same scenario (matching points both weekends) now favors the Terriers.

When it comes to the Home Eligible and Home Lock lines, those have recently both been determined by NU/BU and their pending pair, since they are so close and sitting in the 4 and 5 slots.

The former is based on whether a team below them could still earn the points it will take to pass them to get to 4 under the most favorable passing situation. That means that whenever either of them banks more points, it'll be harder to move into 4th, regardless of how their final series splits the points. Since that didn't happen today, that line doesn't move today. If NU had won, the line would have moved up to 27 (with 25 and 24 points already, at least one of them would have to hit at least 27 after they meet).

The latter is based on what it would take to stay ahead of 5th under the least favorable lead-maintaining situation. Going into today, BU's max was 32 and NU's 33, but the line was at 31. Why? Because both teams couldn't hit their max at the same time. If NU hit 33, BU would only have 28, so NU could pass you, but then BU couldn't unless you had less than 28 and so on. The line of 31 was set by the two teams winning until they met and then splitting, giving NU 31 and BU 30, meaning that if you could get 31 points, you couldn't fall to 5th.

Since NU lost today, that drops the aforementioned NU 31/BU 30 combo to NU 29/BU 30, so it seems that the line should drop to 30. However, since MC still has a game-in-hand, they look like they are a few points too far back to matter here, but actually still have a max that could jump up into this range at 31, plus UML can hit 30. Since UML and MC don't play each other or either of BU/NU, they could hit their maxes while BU and NU duke it out to see who comes closest to theirs.

Since the Home Lock line should be for everyone, I'm tempted to move it back up to 32, because 31 really includes just UNH's tie-breakers, but that might confuse people that have seen it at 31.

Ex 1: BC and ME and MC and one of BU/NU could all hit at least 31, so UNH really needs 32, unless they have the tb over either MC or both BU and NU (because we don't know which of BU/NU matters, but if you own both tbs, it's irrelevant which wins out), Since UNH owns the tb over MC (and BU, but would lose it to NU in the scenario where NU got to 31), then MC at 31 doesn't matter and the lower of BU/NU can't catch them and they would be at least 4th - and have Home Ice - if they were sitting at exactly 31 pts.

Ex 2: UNH and ME and MC and BU/NU can reach 31+. If BC hits 31, they could be behind UNH, ME and BU and then lose the tb to MC for 4th. Therefore they need 32 to lock up 4th.

Ex 3: For ME, the scenario is the same as BC's since to get to 31, MC would own the tb over ME. ME needs 32 to lock it up.

So... What I will do, instead of choosing whether or not to include specific tbs on a universally applied line, is make the line "31+" which will mean that either you need more than 31, or need the relevant tbs to tip the balance in your favor at 31.

By the same token, NU's loss seems like it shoud drop the In line a point to 27.

Using similar point balancing as the other day and an explanation of how those two points absorbed by BC were taken from the rest of the field (it's a long explanation that involves the BC/UNH H2H in two weekends) that would fall in line with the recent trend.

As it turns out, we now have few enough games left and a close enough field that the In line comes down to the final UVM@UML series in the same way that the Home lines have been dependent upon BU/NU. UML's max is 30 and UVM's is 28, but since they face off, they can't both get their maxes. A hypothetical 3-1 split for UVM would give them each a max of 27, ahead of no one but PC.

But wait, there's more...

To get to UVM and UML both at 27, UVM would have to sweep BU, which would drop BU's max to 28. To hit that 28, BU would have to sweep NU, leaving NU's max at 27 (after Sunday's loss), assuming a UNH sweep. That leaves at least a 3-way tie at 27 possible between UVM, UML and NU (or BU with a 3-1 BU/NU split) at the botom of the stack.

In that scenario, someone hitting 27 would lock up a playoff spot and someone else would not, so I will similarly indicate the In line with a "27+" to try to avoid confusion as best we can.

Make sense... at 2:15 am on a Sunday night / Monday morning?

It's still pretty amazing that with most teams only having four games left, the In line and Home Eligible line are 1+ point apart and yet seven of the ten teams are still eligible for home, but have not yet locked up a playoff spot.

There may be more combos that I haven't uncovered yet that say where teams can/cannot reach, but the whole thing's going to shift again in under 48 hours, so I'll take another look then.

In the meantime, if anyone else finds a schedule-influenced quirk that we haven't covered yet (or even a question that you don't know how to answer), feel free to let the rest of us know.

FWIW, I've checked each end of all ranges and those are accurate as of right now, schedule-inclusive.

 

[sterlippo1]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

Todd, really amazing stuff, thanks!

 

[Todd]

Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

UNH 32 - 40 [1-3]
--- Home Lock - 30+ (BU/NU/UML) ---
BC 30 - 36 [1-5]
--- In - 27+ (UVM/UML/BU/NU) ---
ME 26 - 34 [1-9]
BU 24 - 32 [2-9]
NU 23 - 31 [2-9]
UMA 22 - 28 [3-9]
UML 22 - 30 [2-9]
MC 21 - 29 [3-9]
UVM 20 - 28 [3-9]
--- Home Eligible - 26 (BU/NU) ---
--- Out - 21 (MC) ---
PC 12 - 20 [10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - @NU/NU, BC/@BC
BC - UMA, @UNH/UNH
ME – @MCx2, UMAx2
BU - @UVMx2, NU/@NU
NU - UNH/@UNH, @BU/BU
UMA - @BC, @MEx2
UML - PC/@PC, UVMx2
MC - MEx2, @PC/PC
UVM - BUx2, @UMLx2
PC – @UML/UML, MC/@MC

Tonight's results put BC at 30, drop MC's max to 29 and eat up MC's game-in-hand on the field. Everyone has four games left except BC and UMA who have three and face off for only one this weekend.

BC's 30 puts them out of reach of the maxes of PC, UVM, UMA and MC, which means no lower than 6th. UML could still hit 30 and owns the BC tb, so no impact there. Lastly, once again, either BU or NU could catch BC (and BU has the BC tb), but they can't both do so. That makes BC no lower than 5th. Not Home Ice yet, but their magic number, combined with UML, is one.

That win also puts the heat on UNH who now cannot get far enough ahead of the Eagles before the final weekend to stay ahead of a possible BC H2H sweep.

With BC at 30 and UNH at 32 their final H2H means that 1st place must be at least 33 pts (a 3-1 BC split) - at which time, 2nd would also be at least 33. Of course, 2nd could still be as low as 30, leaving lots of other teams in contention for that spot.

MC missed a golden opportunity to jump over UML and UMA and into a tie with NU in 5th, had they won.

Still they have a chance this weekend to take a pair from Maine at Volpe, where they have been dominant, and jump up to 25, a point behind the Bears with the tb in hand and going into the final weekend where the schedule gives them the easiest draw as other teams in contention knock themselves about.

The loss by MC also means that a potential logjam around 27-28 takes a different shape, but ultimately all that matters is that 27 points can still be in 9th place. The In line does not move today.

However, the drop of MC's max from 31 to 29 means that there are four teams (UNH, BC, ME, BU/NU) that can still hit 31 pts, but the 5th (UML) can only hit 30. Based on the new nomenclature from the prior post, that puts the Home Ice line at 30+. In the case of BC, who is at 30, they do not have the + to get past UML, as noted above. If BU or Maine hit 30, they have the + (in this case the tb over UML), so they would lock up Home Ice. BC and NU lose the +, so they do not lock it up at 30.

Home Eligible and Out stay as is.

 

[Todd]

Magic Number-palooza!!!

Magic Number-palooza!!!

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - @NU/NU, BC/@BC
BC - UMA, @UNH/UNH
ME – @MCx2, UMAx2
BU - @UVMx2, NU/@NU
NU - UNH/@UNH, @BU/BU
UMA - @BC, @MEx2
UML - PC/@PC, UVMx2
MC - MEx2, @PC/PC
UVM - BUx2, @UMLx2
PC – @UML/UML, MC/@MC

In case anyone reading a sports fan forum is unfamiliar with the concept of Magic Number (M#), the M# is the combined number of wins (or points, in this case) by Team A and losses (or lost points) by Team B that would result in Team A reaching their goal.

Let's see if we can figure out what each team is looking at as we head into the penultimate weekend.

UNH: 32 pts

Since they have the tb over BU, the only teams they have to worry about are BC and ME. They lose the tb to ME and tied BC in the first of three with a H&H to wrap the season.

Six points up on ME with four games (eight points) left for the Black Bears, UNH's M# to outpace Maine, and lock up at least 2nd, is 3.

Since BC only has three games left to make up their gap, with the tb TBD, the M# for UNH at the moment is a conditional 5. If BC loses Friday and UNH takes 3+ in their last four games, it's over. If BC wins Friday, even a UNH sweep this w/e (or a BC tie and UNH taking 3) will leave the 'Cats vulnerable to a BC sweep which would also yield the tb to the Eagles. M# aside, if UNH goes into next w/e with even a one-point lead (which will be the case unless BC wins their single and UNH gets swept), then they'll just need a split (at most) with BC to stay ahead of the Eagles for good.

BC: 30 pts

BC's M# to catch UNH is in the neighborhood of 9, but that may change depending on how things look going into the final, tb-deciding w/e. Certainly if they pick up six this w/e (BC win, 2 UNH losses), they would draw even and 3 of 4 against UNH would wrap up 1st (they also would be ahead of everyone else at that point).

It should be noted that if BC and UNH end up tied in points (which would happen at 34pts minimum) with a split H2H record (1-1-1 or 0-0-3), BC would take the tb at the 2nd tier with more wins. Theoretically, if BC made up the two points on UNH with two ties (0-0-2), rather than a 1-1-0, then they might force a 3rd tier tb (which would then be based on the next highest seed - if ME, then BC's record is better; if BU, then UNH's is better, and so on), but BC only has one game left that is not against UNH. That leaves them only one possibility to tie before any ties they have are also ties for UNH, keeping the spread the same. In fact, if BC does tie that UMA game, then BC and UNH can't end up tied for the season, so tbs are moot.

BC is 4-up on ME, but ME has a game-in hand. BC has the tb, so ME would have to pass them. In that case, BC's M# w/ ME is 4.

Moving to BU, BC's lead is two larger, but BU has the tb, meaning BC needs to be out of reach. BC's M# w/ BU is 3.

BC takes the tb from NU, but loses it to UML. Therefore, in both cases, BC just needs to get to 31 (or make it so the other team's max drops by one). For both NU and UML, BC's M# is 1.

As discussed previously BC is out of everyone else's reach.

Maine: 26 points

Maine has the tb w/ UNH, but a slim margin for error. Since UNH's M# is 3, Maine's M# w/ UNH is "not 3" (which I'll call -3)... or 14 (of the 16 combined pts remaining).

Similarly, w/ BC, Maine's M# is "not 4" (-4), or 10 (of the 14 combined).

BU has the tb w/ Maine, so Maine needs to stay ahead of the Terriers. With a two-point lead, they can only afford to miss one to control their own destiny here. That makes their M# w/ BU 7.

Maine holds the tb w/ both NU and UML, so the relative M#s there are 5 and 4.

Maine's tbs w/ UMA and MC are TBD, as those are their final two opponents.

Since UMA only has six points available to make up a four point deficit, Maine hitting a M# of 3 before the two meet next w/e would do it. With only the one game this w/e UMA cannot catch ME before their H2H. If ME's M# w/ UMA doesn't move at all this w/e (UMA beats BC, MC sweps ME), then ME's M# will still be 3, but the head to head means all M# points are paired up (a point for ME is also point lost by UMA and v.v.), so it will end up being "M# = >2", which would be effectively 2 pts in the standings for ME. Either a win or two ties would do it.

For MC, they have eight points available to close a 5-pt gap. The mutual tbs are mixed at all levels. The H2H will llikely decide the 1st tier. Since ME won the 1st mtg, MC taking 3 of 4 would split the season (1-1-1) and leave MC 3 pts back. The 2nd tb, league wins, would depend on how the odd point was gained. In this situation, if MC sweeps PC and ME goes 0-1-1 vs UMA, then MC would have more wins and take the tb. However, if MC went 1-0-1 against PC and ME was swept, then the 2nd tier tb is tied and we'd go to record against top teams. Depending on who that is, the tb would swing one way or the other.

So... to be safe, ME needs to be out of reach of MC. MC's max is 29, so ME just needs 4. Remember that H2H play moves the M# twice as fast. If ME takes two points from MC, that also means MC's max has dropped two, putting ME out of reach. IF MC sweeps, they take the tb and are only a point back, meaning that the M# for ME w/ MC is still 4.

ME took the season from UVM (2-0-1), so a tie keeps them ahead. That makes their M# over UVM just 2.

BU: 24 points

Losing the tb to UNH means BU can't catch them.

BU's M# w/ BC is -3, or 11 (of 14).

BU's M# w/ ME is -7, or 9 (of 16). Even with sweeps both ways in BU's favor, that will carry over into next w/e.

BU's tb w/ NU is pending the final w/e H2H. If that splits, like with MC and ME, it depends who gets the tie to make up the odd point. The two teams have different records against each of the three that might earn 1st, but BU owns both against BC and ME where NU loses both. The UNH/NU tb depends on their finale, but if NU takes 2 pts from UNH and UNH ends up 1st and BU & NU split 3-1 BU and the two end up tied at 27 because NU got 3 pts this w/e while BU got swept, then that would give the tb to NU.

With all of that up in the air, BU's only lock at this point is to keep or expand their one-point lead, making their M# w/ NU 8.

BU has the tb w/ both UMA and UML and a two-pt lead, so the M# for each is 6. Against MC, w/ the tb, the M# is 5.

The tb w/ UVM is in the balance this w/e, and the two tied their 1st mtg. If they split this w/e, BU would maintain their 4 pt lead going into the final w/e, meaning the best UVM could do would be catch them. With the H2H split, the 2nd tb goes BU's way. (Actually, UVM has so many ties that anyone going to the 2nd tier tb w/ them will come out ahead in league wins. Since no one has tied the season with UVM yet, that possibility only exists w/ UVM's remaining opponents, BU and UML.)

So, if BU takes 2 (or more) from UVM, that's a M# of 4 that locks it up for BU going into the final w/e. If they take fewer pts, UVM will take the TB and BU will need one more to stay out of UVM's reach, making the M#, in that case, 5.

NU: 23 points

You've seen NU's marks against the teams above them already, so take the inverse and that's what they need in each situation.

Can't get to UNH, -1 w/ BC (win out and have BC lose out), and -5 (+11) w/ ME. For BU it's -8, or 9.

For UMA, the Huskies get the tb nod - so they have a point to spare - but UML owns the relevant NU tb. M# over UML is 8, for UMA (only 3 games left) it's 5.

NU played MC early enough that they hadn't gelled yet, which let them take the season series. For NU/UVM, the reverse is true. That puts the M# for both at 6 for NU.

UMA/UML: 22 points

Nearly identical points and overall record. In the event of a tie, UMA takes the season 2-1-0. Other than that, it's team-by-team with individual breakouts. UML owns BC, MC and NU tbs. The rest are pending or not in their favor. UMA owns, UML, PC and UVM, with more pending.

M#s for both in the tight field are the inverse of what the teams above them need to stave them off, and similarly, matching the results of those below them in order to hold the narrow lead.

In UMA's case, with one fewer game left, when it comes to controlling their own destiny, they are essentially tied with UVM and a point behind MC.

MC: 21 points

With MC, the only H2H tb they've taken (ME and PC pending) are the teams on either side of them - UMA and UVM. If you're only going to on two tbs, it's handy to have them be over the teams closest to you in the standings as you fight to stay ahead of 9th and into the playoffs. For other teams above them, they should plan ahead and assume they need to pass them in points to move up.

UVM: 20 points

TBs only over BC (not that it matters) and NU, with two pending (BU, UML), in case it matters down the road. Other than that, you can surmise UVM's prospects by seeking them in the other team's assessments.

PC: 10 pts

Dead and buried, PC can't catch anyone and will end their season next w/e against MC.


I'll be on the road Friday, but I wanted to get this out for people to digest before the games commenced.

That said, it's late and I need a nap, so I'm just going to post what I have. Feel free to proofread, especially the later sections, for any errors or lack of readability. If something's not clear, let me know and I'll try to clear it up for the post-Friday analysis.

 

[Todd]

Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

UNH 33 - 39 [1-2]
BC 32 - 36 [1-2]
--- Home Lock - 30+ (BU/NU/UML) ---
--- In - 26+ (UVM/UML/BU/NU) ---
ME 26 - 32 [3-9]
BU 24 - 30 [3-9]
NU 24 - 30 [3-9]
UML 24 - 30 [3-9]
MC 23 - 29 [3-9]
UMA 22 - 26 [4-9]
UVM 22 - 28 [3-9]
--- Home Eligible - 26+ (BU/NU/UVM/UML) ---
--- Out - 22- (UMA/UVM) ---
PC 12 - 18 [10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - NU, BC/@BC
BC - @UNH/UNH
ME – @MC, UMAx2
BU - @UVM, NU/@NU
NU - @UNH, @BU/BU
UMA - @MEx2
UML - @PC, UVMx2
MC - ME, @PC/PC
UVM - BU, @UMLx2
PC – UML, MC/@MC


Sorry for the delay. Connectivity + battery issues while on the road (meaning that by the time the WiFi worked, the battery was half drained). I've got at least a passing solution now so tonight should be more timely.

---------------------------

At the top of the league standings, a couple of things were decided last night.

Maine lost, which dropped their max to 32.

UNH's tie got them one point ahead of that, which they needed since they lose the tb to ME. At 33, UNH can now no longer fall beyond ME, or 2nd.

BC's win gave them 32. Since BC wins the tb w/ ME, that also locks up a 1-2 slot for BC.

So we now have the first two slots down to UNH & BC. Everyone else but PC is fighting for 3rd-9th.

Their tie also kept UNH at least one point ahead of BC going into next weekend where the schedule makers have allowed the two to settle the RS title on the ice, head to head. If they stay one point ahead (aka lose tonight and stay at 33), then all UNH will need is a split next weekend to be RS champs. Both teams get two and UNH is still up by one, 35-34.

If they are two points up (tie again tonight to have 34), they will still need a split. Here's why: Up by two, a 3-1 split next weekend would knot UNH and BC at 35. Their first mtg was a tie, so BC would take the season series, and the tb, with a 1-0-2 record H2H.

If UNH is three points up (win tonight to have 35), then a single point next week would put them out of BC's reach (36 to BC's then-max of 35).

Conversely, idle BC can scoreboard watch tonight to see if they'll need 3 pts or a sweep next weekend to take 1st. That means the Eagles are big Husky fans tonight.

Maine's loss keeps them only four points ahead of UMA, whom they will host for two next weekend. Since a UMA sweep next week would also give the Minutemen the tb, Maine needs another point to be out of their reach. That point would then at least put the Black Bears in the playoffs. As it stands, the rest of the league could still all get at least 27, while leaving ME and UMA in a tie for 8th at 26. That losing tb would leave Maine out of the HE tourney.

Maine already the holds the tb over UVM, so a UVM loss tonight would also put Maine out of reach of UVM, and into the playoffs.

If BU and NU both lose tonight, that would also put ME in the playoffs, because then only one of them could pass ME in their H2H next weekend. Since BU holds the ME tb, they would only need to pick up two pts on ME to bump them down a seed. NU loses the ME tb, so they need to be a point ahead. A NU tie and a BU loss tonight/tomorrow would still allow the two to split next w/e and both be ahead of ME in seeding.

UML loses the tb w/ ME, so they'd need to find a way to be a point ahead, like NU. Since both UML and UVM lose the tb to ME, a UML loss tonight would, similarly to BU/NU, put Maine in - since only one of the UVM/UML could pass ME next weekend when they face off at Tsongas.

The tb between ME and MC is up for grabs tonight, since they split the first two, 1-1. A MC win would give them the tb and draw them to within one leading into the final weekend where ME would be battling UMA who would be fighting for their post-season life and MC would play two with already-eliminated PC seemingly playing out their string. A tie tonight would leave the gap at three in that same scenario. With the H2H tb split at 1-1-1, the tb would then depend on who picked up the "extra" tie to knot the two at 27 or 28 and, perhaps, who wins the BC/UNH battle for the top seed.

Of course, a Maine win at MC (which few have done this year, as MC is 12-2 at home) tonight makes every other scenario above moot as far as getting above that In line, as 28 pts would lock up a playoff spot.

In the middle of the pack, BU's loss, NU's tie and UML's win knot them at 24. Had UMA scored in OT instead of BC, that would have made a 4-way tie for 4th. MC's win puts them a point back of these three at 23 and UVM's win moves them up to 22 w/ UMA. UVM loses the tb to UMA, so they'd still be 9th today, but they have a game-in-hand with Sunday's game, while UMA is off until next week at Alfond.

Amazing that with only two or three games left in the season, the spread between Home Ice and Out is two points.

In fact, with a ME loss at MC, a BU loss at UVM, a NU loss at UNH, and a UML loss at PC - a home sweep for the rest of the weekend - and 3rd through 8th would all be within two points: ME at 26, MC at 25, and BU/NU/UML/UVM at 24. The four teams then tied at 24 would also be paired up against each other for the final weekend.

With the interlocking schedules between BU/NU and UML/UVM next weekend plus BU/UVM on Sunday, the Home Eligible and In lines are both at 26+... and every team but UNH, BC and PC is still between them.

After tonight, somebody should move somewhere, but if the home teams win, everyone stays in that limbo.

For all of these teams, the options are still so open that basically anyone could end up anywhere. But, in the end, someone has to win. If anyone wins out, they are in the playoffs and for ME and BU/NU/UML, likely have Home Ice. If those teams falter or split, the window is still open for MC and UVM to slide in.

Incredibly, even UMA could still reach Home Ice, even though they can't have a .500 or better record in the league. They lose the tb to both BU and NU, and at least one of those two has to reach 26, UMA's max. The ME/UMA tie at 26 discussed above could actually be for 4th, as well as 8th, depending on how things shake out.

For those that haven't realized, in a ten-team league where everyone plays three against the other nine teams, 27 league games means that 27 points for the season is .500. With most of the teams playing 24 so far, BU, NU and UML all have .500 records (24 pts, 11-11-2 records).

We are still looking at situations where having a .500 record could seed a team as high as 3rd out of 10, while being a single point under .500 could put you either in 4th, with Home Ice, or out of the playoffs entirely on a tie-breaker, depending on how things play out.

 

[BC/HE]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

I could be wrong but I believe Maine has locked up home ice. BU can still pass them but they hold tiebreakers with everyone else that could tie them.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

I could be wrong but I believe Maine has locked up home ice. BU can still pass them but they hold tiebreakers with everyone else that could tie them.

A sweep by UMA @ Maine and a sweep by Lowell vs Vermont is the only way Maine can lose home ice. BU also needs 4 points to pass/tie Maine.

New Hampshire	27	37
Boston College	27	34
Boston U	27	30
Mass.-Lowell	27	29
Maine	        27	28
Merrimack	27	27
Massachusetts	27	26
Northeastern	27	24
Vermont 	27	22
Providence	27	13

 

[Todd]

Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

UNH 35 - 39 [1-2]
BC 32 - 36 [1-2]
--- Home Lock - 30+ (BU) ---
ME 28 - 32 [3-5]
--- In - 26+ (UVM/UML/BU/NU) ---
UML 25 - 29 [3-9]
BU 24 - 30 [3-9]
NU 24 - 28 [4-9]
MC 23 - 27 [4-9]
UVM 22 - 28 [4-9]
--- Home Eligible - 27+ (BU/NU/UVM/UML) ---
UMA 22 - 26 [5-9]
--- Out - 22- (UMA/UVM) ---
PC 13 - 17 [10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - BC/@BC
BC - @UNH/UNH
ME – UMAx2
UML - UVMx2
BU - @UVM, NU/@NU
NU - @BU/BU
MC - @PC/PC
UMA - @MEx2
UVM - BU, @UMLx2
PC – MC/@MC


UNH's win tonight gives them a three-point lead heading into next week, so all they'll need is 1 pt against BC to get top seed. BC will need a sweep to top the standings.

With their win tonight, Maine is in. How far in? Let's see: At 28 pts, ME can no longer be caught by PC, UMA or MC. That means no lower than 7th. UVM can tie them, but loses the tb, so that's 6th. That's also true for NU, so that means 5th. UML also loses the tb, but the tie tonight means they can still get to 29 with a sweep. BU only needs to tie, so they have six points available to catch up by four points. Maine's M# for home ice is 1 w/ UML or 3 with BU. If they end up on the road, it would be at either BU or UML.

UML's tie bumps them ahead of BU/NU before those two meet. The 'Hawks could still pass ME and be in 3rd, or fall victim to sweeps by UVM, UMA, 3 or 4 from MC, and a split of the weekend by BU/NU, ending up 9th and out.

UML's point earned tonight means that the final home ice spot will have at least 27 points. Imagine that next week's results are a split between BU and NU, bringing both to 26, and a 3-1 UVM/UML split, bringing UML to 26 and UVM to 25. That leaves the results of Sunday's UVM/BU game. A UVM win would put the 'Cats at 27, a tie would leave UVM at 26, but BU would rise to 27. Obviously, a BU win would put BU over 27. That means that at least one of these four must be 27 or over. If the one to hit 27 is UVM, that still leaves the door open for MC to have home ice with a sweep of PC, since they have the tb w/ UVM. All of the other three have the tb w/ MC, so any other scenario means MC is unable to host the first round. Since UMA can only hit 26, that small move of the line leaves UMA unable to be home as well.

BU could jump back up into 4th with a point or two on Sunday, as they have the tb with UML. If they don't get one, they'll need more than a split next w/e as NU won the first mtg so a split gives the tb to NU.

 

[Todd]

Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

UNH 35 - 39 [1-2]
BC 32 - 36 [1-2]
--- Home Lock - 29+ (UML) ---
ME 28 - 32 [3-5]
--- In - 26+ (UVM/UML/BU/NU) ---
UML 25 - 29 [3-9]
UVM 24 - 28 [4-9]
NU 24 - 28 [4-9]
BU 24 - 28 [3-9]
MC 23 - 27 [4-9]
--- Home Eligible - 27+ (BU/NU/UVM/UML) ---
UMA 22 - 26 [6-9]
--- Out - 23+ (MC) ---
PC 13 - 17 [10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - BC/@BC
BC - @UNH/UNH
ME – UMAx2
UML - UVMx2
UVM - @UMLx2
NU - @BU/BU
BU - NU/@NU
MC - @PC/PC
UMA - @MEx2
PC – MC/@MC


UVM's win on Sunday jumped the Catamounts from 9th and out of the playoffs up to 5th (both seeds based on tbs), one point back of home ice and playing that 4th place team H2H next weekend.

Maine is still vulnerable to a UMA sweep, BU sweep and UML sweep kicking them down to 5th (BU/ME tied at 4th at 28 behind UML at 29, BU wins tb), so, no, they haven't locked up home ice and their range remains 3-5.

On the other side, MC can still reach home ice (MC sweep, NU/BU split, UVM/UML 3/1 = MC/UVM 4th at 27, MC tb). Everyone from UML to MC could still fall behind UMA and the field and miss the playoffs, so none of those ranges change.

For UMA, at least one of NU/BU must reach 26, UMA's max, and UMA loses both tbs, so that - combined with UNH, BC, ME being out of reach - is why they couldn't get home ice going into Sunday. With UVM's win, one of UML or UVM must hit 27, which means that UMA can now not reach 5th.


The GWG at Gutterson this weekend made me think of a specific play from the NFL season, in that it is an example of how a single play, sometimes just a great effort by one player making one play, can change the complexion of an entire season.

The NFL play I was reminded of was a phenomenal effort by a single Bears lineman to block an extra point that didn't seem pivotal at the time, as the Bears had a large lead over the Vikings in a nationally broadcast night game at Soldier Field. As it turned out, the Vikings were in the midst of a huge late-game comeback that ended up tied at the end of regulation, instead of a one-point win for Minnesota (both teams made every effort to score every point possible for the rest of the game after the blocked kick, so I do not believe that the game would have been played differently if the kick were made). As it turned out, not only did the Bears win in OT, but Minnesota lost a starting corner for the season on the opening kickoff in OT. If Minn wins that game (IIRC, neither Minn or NO rested players at the end of the season, like Indy did once things were wrapped up), the NFC title game is in Minneapolis instead of New Orleans (with the Vikings d-backs intact) and that game and perhaps the Super Bowl are impacted. Perhaps Minnesota makes the SB and beats Indy. Perhaps the Colts win. Perhaps the Saints win anyway as a team of destiny. As close as the NFC title game was - and what a great game to watch, as it turned out - any small change may have had a snowball effect.

In the hypothetical where UVM's 3rd goal doesn't go in (missed pass, missed shot, save, ...) and nothing else changes, that game could have ended as a tie. A tie there would give BU 25 pts and UVM 23. BU would be tied with UML for 4th and get the Home Ice nod due to holding the tb. UVM would be tied with MC and lose that tb, and so be seeded 8th at the moment, only 1 pt ahead of UMA who also holds the tb over UVM.

Going into next w/e, if we assume splits all around the league, the playoffs would look like this:

UNH hosts UVM
BC hosts MC
ME hosts NU
BU hosts UML

Instead, with the tie actually being a UVM win, BU drops from a tie where it wins the tb to a tie where it loses one tb and trails in the other. They drop from 4th to 7th seed. UVM now moves up from a tie where it loses the tb, to a tie where it wins both, moving from 8th to 5th.

Now in the case where everyone splits, we get this:

UNH hosts MC
BC hosts BU
ME hosts NU
UML hosts UVM

Looking at the matchups, UNH did similarly against UVM and MC, so maybe there's no impact there. BC beat MC H2H 2-1 (and MC hasn't done that well on the road), but lost the HE RS to BU 1-2, losing the game at Conte to boot. ME and NU is the same in both cases. Instead of UML going to BU, who they lost to two-of-three, they might host UVM on back-to-back weekends after splitting the season (in this hypothetical) either 1-1-1 or 0-0-3.

In another scenario, if UVM and BU both sweep, and ME gets a point, BU will have to travel back up to Gutterson for the first round with this weekend's sweep in that building fresh on both teams' minds - and likely the fans' as well.

Who knows how this will all turn out, but the impact of a single play, turned into a single point, in a field this packed, could reverberate through the league - and even the NCAA tourney.

FWIW, I'm selecting this play from this game not only because it is the most recent, but it occurred between two teams in the mix at the middle of the standings, as opposed to, say, the BC/UMA, UML/PC or NU/UNH games this weekend.

 

[Todd]

Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

In a nutshell:

If BC sweeps, they are 1st seed and UNH 2nd. Otherwise, UNH is 1st and BC 2nd.

One point earned for Maine locks up Home Ice and, in fact, 3rd seed. A point lost by UML locks up Home Ice for ME (ME has the UML tb), but BU could still sweep and tie a swept ME, with the tb to BU, to seed ME 4th. Similarly, a point lost by BU locks up Home Ice for Maine, but a sweeping UML would have more points than a swept ME, seeding ME 4th. If both BU and UML lose a point, that's the same as ME gaining one - Home and 3rd.

UML has a leg up on the pack for 4th and the final Home Ice slot. UML has tbs over NU and MC, loses tbs to BU and UMA, and cannot tie UVM since they are separated by an odd-number of points and are H2H for the final two. A split or better keeps UML ahead of UMA, MC and UVM. Three points keeps UML also ahead of NU and only vulnerable to a BU sweep. A sweep and UML has Home Ice at either 4th or 3rd.

BU loses the tb to UVM and is trailing against NU. They hold the tb w/ ME, UML, MC and UMA. Unless BU sweeps and ME is swept, BU can't catch ME or 3rd. A split keeps BU behind NU (on a 1-2-0 H2H tb) and the winner of the UML/UVM series. A split with UML/UVM puts a split BU behind both + NU. BU needs one more point than UML to catch and pass on H2H tb (not getting into three-way ties yet); one more point than UVM to stay away from the tb, which they lose; and get 3+ in their H2H to stay ahead of the tb w/ NU. If BU gets 3 and UML/UVM split, BU takes 4th.

NU can afford a split w/ BU to stay ahead on tb, but they need to get ahead of both UML and UVM to pass. Therefore, if UML/UVM is a split, NU needs a sweep to pass UML for 4th. In that case, 3 pts for NU would leave them ahead of BU and UVM, but tied with UML, and lose the tb. NU holds the tb w/ MC and UMA, so 3 pts pulls them ahead of both. With a 3-1 UML/UVM split or either UML or UVM sweeping, NU can't pass the winner, but would take 5th with a BU split and MC not sweeping PC. With a 1-3 UML/UVM split, NU also needs a sweep to stay ahead of UVM and take 4th.

UVM holds the tb against BU and NU, but not against MC or UMA. That means they hold the advantage among the teams they are tied with - as long as they keep pace - but are the single most vulnerable to being caught from behind (BU and NU have both tbs over MC and UMA). They will need to take 3 from UML to pass, as a split leaves them one short.

MC needs to take advantage of playing last place PC to move up on the four teams ahead of them beating each other up. They can still reach Home Ice with a sweep, a BU/NU split and a 3-1 UVM/UML series, winning the 4th seed at 27 points on H2H tb over UVM. Anything else might be moving them up in seeding, but they'll be on the road.

UMA has a tough road with 2 @ ME, but they have the tb over both UVM and UML, so if they can string points together, they can still catch the loser of that series and the loser of BU/NU unless they split evenly.

------------

A ME win/UMA loss puts ME 3rd and puts UML, BU, NU in the playoffs. A point or more for MC in that case would also put them in. A point or more for UVM in that case would put them in. If all of that happens Friday, then UMA would be out and we'd just be looking at seeding 4th through 8th on Saturday.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

why is tom caron saying umass is out right now???

umass 12-14-0
northe 11-13-2
vermnt 9-11-6

each team is 2-1 & 1-2 against the group.

umass beat uvm, lost to nu
uvm lost to amherst, beat nu
nu beat umass, lost to uvm.
--so nobody wins first tie breaker (hth).

2nd tiebreaker is conf wins. duh

i see umass is 7th

 

[HuskyMan]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

As I see it you are correct mookie...maybe we are missing something somehow? I don't know...

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

As I see it you are correct mookie...maybe we are missing something somehow? I don't know...

he must have brought it up 3 or 4 times, so i imagine someone in the know told him so. it confused me.

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

he must have brought it up 3 or 4 times, so i imagine someone in the know told him so. it confused me.

I've been telling people all night: Never take the word of a network broadcaster or newspaper columnist over the word of a knowledgeable fan.

Tom Caron constantly says nonsensical things in his broadcasts.

Every Beanpot game with Northeastern when they are still in the running, he says that their '80's team was the first team to win four times in a decade. Knowing that they never won outside that decade means that that statment is a mathematical impossibility. Since it's a four team tournament, if one team is taken out of the mix and each of the other teams only wins three times, that's only nine games. (At least) One of those three other teams has to win four times in each decade. In fact, since all four NU wins to date were in the '80s, that three- (or even two-) way split happened in every other decade - so in every decade where there have been ten games, some team has won four times. Every decade.

But Tom Caron notes that impossible stat every year.

So, to paraphrase a certain Wizard: Pay no attention to that man behind the microphone.

 

[jjmc85]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

why is tom caron saying umass is out right now???

umass 12-14-0
northe 11-13-2
vermnt 9-11-6

each team is 2-1 & 1-2 against the group.

umass beat uvm, lost to nu
uvm lost to amherst, beat nu
nu beat umass, lost to uvm.
--so nobody wins first tie breaker (hth).

2nd tiebreaker is conf wins. duh

i see umass is 7th

I thought that multi-team tie breakers eliminate the last team, not place the top team. So in this situation I thought VT would be placed 9th and we'd redo the tie breakers with NU and UMass, NU would win based on head to head. Either way, I agree with your point. I don't think UMass is out right now.

 

[freak]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

I thought that multi-team tie breakers eliminate the last team, not place the top team.

According to this (courtesy to Sean Pickett for digging it up) from the 2007-08 season, you would be correct. In 3 and 4-way ties, the worst team is dropped, and then the tiebreakers start over between the remaining tied teams.

 

[Todd]

Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

UNH 36 - 38 [1]
BC 33 - 35 [2]
--- Home Lock - 28+ (BU) ---
ME 28 - 30 [3-5]
UML 27 - 29 [3-5]
--- In - 26+ (UVM/UMA/NU) ---
BU 26 - 28 [3-9]
--- Home Eligible - 27+ (UML) ---
MC 25 - 27 [5-9]
UVM 24 - 26 [5-9]
NU 24 - 26 [5-9]
UMA 24 - 26 [6-9]
--- Out - 24+ (UVM/UMA/NU) ---
PC 13 - 15 [10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - @BC
BC - UNH
ME – UMA
UML - UVM
UVM - @UML
NU - BU
BU - @NU
MC - PC
UMA - @ME
PC – @MC

UNH 1
BC 2
...
PC 10

Now lets move on to the filler in that seedings sandwich.

Maine can still be 3, 4, or 5. Either UML or BU can bump ME down with a win and a ME loss. If they both do it, Maine is 5th. If only one does it, Maine is 4th. If neither does it, or there's one pt for the Black Bears, then they're 3rd.

UML has clinched a spot in the playoffs, but no one below them has (we'll get there). They can be 3rd with a win and a ME loss. They can be 4th with a win and a ME tie or win, or just staying one point ahead of BU. In a two-way tie with BU or ME, UML loses. In a two way with MC, UML wins. In a three-way tie with BU and ME, the order is BU/ME/UML. In a three-way tie with BU and MC, the order is BU/UML/MC. Since no one else can catch UML and MC loses every tie (which is the best they can do), then UML is also locked in to 3, 4, or 5.

I'll come back to BU in a moment.

MC loses all combinations of tbs to the teams above them (UML, BU), so they need to pass either to move up. Since they can't pass UML, they can't get home ice and the best they can hope for is a win and a BU loss to seed them 5th. With a loss, MC could be passed outright by any combination of the teams behind them, letting them drop as low as 9th.

For the other 3 (UMA, NU, UVM), they can no longer reach UML, so the search for 4th place and Home Ice is over. They could each lose and be passed by the other two - leaving them 9th and out - or get points and jump up as far as 26. At 25, MC loses the tb to NU, but wins it over UMA and UVM. NU wins over UMA and MC, but loses to UVM. UMA wins over UVM, but loses to MC and NU. UVM beats NU, but loses to both UMA and MC. Adding BU into the mix at 26 shows BU winning UMA and MC, but losing UVM and NU (for BU to be 26, they lose the last game, and series to NU). The combinations here are so mixed, that by the time I scripted them all out, it would be almost game time tomorrow. OK, not really, but it just seems overkill when we could wait 16-ish hours for the games to start and see where the chips fall.

I will say this: The two-way matches are above. If everyone keeps their relative position in the logjam now at 24, that breaks out as a round-robin 3-3-0 record, moving the tb decision to the 2nd tier, league wins. In that case, the order is UMA, NU, UVM. In an odd twist, once the first team is removed from the tb (see "The question" under BU below) by League Wins, the order of the other two will flip because NU beats the team above them, but loses to the team behind them. That means NU is top of the three if working from the bottom up, but last if working from the top down.

For those that want an example, here's the most varied...

BU is in the interesting position of still being able to not only get home ice, but be 3rd seed, while still being able to drop out of the playoffs on a four way tie-breaker. At the top of the scale, a BU win, Maine loss, and UML non-win, BU is 3rd. BU would drop to 4th with either a ME point or UML win (but not both) swapped into the above scenario. Add both a ME pt and a UML win to a BU win and BU drops to 5th.

A BU tie could put them 4th or 5th. In a two-way tie with either UML or MC, BU wins. In a three-way tie, the order is BU/UML/MC. Like UML, at 27 points (a tie), BU would be out of reach of everyone below MC and MC loses all the tbs, so with a win or tie, BU is - like ME and UML - 3rd, 4th, or 5th.

However...

A BU loss leaves them within striking distance of everyone behind them still in contention. NU would, by definition have tied them and taken the tb. That could put BU 6th. MC could pass them with a win. That could make them 7th. UMA could reach 24 and tie BU/NU. The H2H tb with BU and UMA is now irrelevant, since BU and NU would have to both be at 24 for a UMA tie to matter. In that three-way tie, the order would be NU (4-2-0) / BU (3-3-0) / UMA (2-4-0). That would leave BU at 7th behind a MC win and a lost tb to NU. A UVM win would draw them even as well. Similarly to UMA, the H2H tb w/ UVM gives way to the three-way tie with NU and UVM, in which the order would be UVM (4-1-1) / NU (3-3-0) / BU (1-4-1), putting BU 8th, but still in the playoffs. However, if BU gets caught by all three of NU, UVM and UMA, the first pass at the tb shakes out as follows UVM (5-3-1) / NU (5-4-0) / UMA (4-5-0) / BU (3-5-1). Add an MC win into that mix and the loser of that four-way tb is 9th and out.

The question for BU is: in a three- (or more) way tie, does HE promote the top team or eliminate the bottom team before comparing the smaller group? The HE website says "reduce the number of teams tied". If memory serves when this has come up in the past, HE drops people off the bottom and works their way up.** If that is true, then the 0-2-1 record against UVM drops BU out from a field otherwise comprised of 2-1/1-2 splits. That makes them 9th and done. If they promote from the top, then UVM gets the higher seed (6th) similarly by virtue of their 2-0-1 with BU, but they take that out of the pool with them when they go. Then NU would be 4-2-0, BU 3-3-0, and UMA 2-4-0 and eventually UMA would drop out.

In a five-way tie (adding in MC after a PC tie), the first pass tb order is: NU (7-5-0) / MC (6-5-1) / UVM (5-5-2) / BU (5-6-1) / UMA (5-7-0).

Imagine the following scenario:

UMA has beaten ME. UVM has beaten UML. MC has beaten PC. BU and NU are in OT...

If BU scores, they are 3rd - Home Ice. If neither scores, BU is 4th - Home Ice. If NU scores, BU is 9th and their season is over.

Seen from the other side: If BU scores, NU is 9th and out. If neither scores, NU is 9th and out. If NU scores, they are 6th (counting from bottom up), and in the playoffs.

That leaves the top two teams in the league last year playing an elimination game in the final game of the RS this year, but the winner would not be 8th, or even 7th.

It also is reminiscent of the scenario at the end of 03-04 where BU need a win at UNH to stay ahead of tbs with NU for the 8th and final spot. As time ticked away in OT at the Whitt, fans in the know were starting to wonder how long Parker would go before pulling his goalie in a tie game. We never got to find out when he would have pulled, but it would have been later than "half way" because BU's David van der Gulik scored at 2:30 of OT for the win.

In this case, one would have to think that Cronin would be the one on the hook for giving the hook.

 

[slurpees]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

I'm not sure how much this clears anything up but from the USCHO HE column this week, it's stated (from a HE source) that in a five way tie, the records against one another are totaled and the TOP team is awareded the top available spot, then everyone is recalculate removing the previous team, and so forth until there is only one remaining and that team finishes 5th in the 5 way tie.

http://www.uscho.com/news/college-hockey/id,18273/ThisWeekinHockeyEastMarch42010.html