--- Home Lock - 34 (BU) ---
--- In - 31 (MC) ---
UNH 29 - 41 [1-9]
BC 26 - 38 [1-9]
ME 24 - 36 [1-9]
BU 22 - 34 [1-10]
UMA 22 - 32 [1-9]
NU 21 - 33 [1-10]
UML 20 - 32 [1-10]
UVM 19 - 31 [1-10]
MC 17 - 31 [1-10]
--- Home Eligible - 24 (BU/NU/UML/UVM) ---
PC 10 - 22 [6-10]
--- Out - 19 (UVM) ---
Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UNH - UVMx2, @NU/NU, BC/@BC
BC - @NU/NU, MC, UMA, @UNH/UNH
ME – UMLx2, @MCx2, UMAx2
BU - @PC/PC, @UVMx2, NU/@NU
UMA - @MC/MC, @BC, @MEx2
NU - BC/@BC, UNH/@UNH, @BU/BU
UML - @MEx2, PC/@PC, UVMx2
UVM - @UNHx2, BUx2, @UMLx2
MC - UMA/@UMA, @BC, MEx2, @PC/PC
PC – BU/@BU, @UML/UML, MC/@MC
Where the lower seeded teams in each matchup going into the weekend took 7 of 10 points on Friday, they continued their success by taking 6 of 8 on Saturday.
Factoring in the sweeps by BU and NU - the latter over UMA - and the split by UML, there's a logjam for the fourth and final home ice spot. UMA has been caught by BU at 22. NU is a point back at 21 and UML is a game back at 20, but everyone has a game in hand on UMA, who only has five games left.
BU already has the tb over UMA, so if the playoffs were seeded right now, UMA would be on the road to Agganis. In fact, BU has the tb over every team that they are finished with, except UNH (BC, ME, UMA, UML, MC). Further, each of those series are 2-1 BU (v UNH is 0-2-1) - and in every case except UML, BU lost the first game before winning the final two. With UML, BU won the first game in OT, before losing the 2nd and winning the 3rd, fittingly, on "Wear Red" Day. In all three BU/UML meetings, the road team won by one.
(The Maine sweep, combined with BU hitting the BOGO marketing target of the neighboring chicken restaurant, allowed Terrier fans to experience a literal "winner, winner, chicken dinner" weekend.)
If NU and UML were assumed to win their games in hand, UMA would be sixth seed by virtue of their 2-1 series win earning them the tb over UML.
For UMA, if they want to stay a factor for home ice, they're going to need to find a way to get back to their successful early season stride and away from their ongoing 1-of-6 stumble.
UML, too, has to break out of their recent rut, having lost 4-of-5 and 6-of-9.
On the flip side of those slumps are NU - having won four straight overall, five straight league games, and six of their last seven, both overall and in the league - and BU - four straight and 8-of-10 in HE, 9-of-12 overall since New Year's.
On a similar up-tick, the Warriors of Merrimack are on a 4-2-1 run including, for them, a significant first point and then first win away from the friendly confines of Volpe.
UNH's lead on 2nd place BC is back down to 3 - courtesy, in part, of a very late GWG by BC's Kreider last night. Over the next two weeks, UNH will host a back-sliding Catamount team (0-1-2 in last 3, 1-2-3 in last 6) for a pair and then a home-and-home with NU while BC heads into a rare Friday-Sunday-Tuesday-Friday skein. All of that leads into a final weekend head-to-head home-and-home between the current top two.
After Maine's sweep of UNH last week helped make things more interesting by keeping UNH in reach of the peloton, their being swept by BU this week prevents them from moving up on, or even keeping pace with, UNH and BC who got two points each this weekend. It also keeps them within striking distance of the snarl of teams right behind them, with a mere two point margin.
With UMA's loss, the teams from 4th to 8th are all within three points of each other. Factor in Merrimack's win and the possibility of two more points from their game-in-hand on the field, and you could arguably add 9th place into that Gordian Knot, meaning the difference between "home ice" and "out of the playoffs" is razor thin.
Outside of all that excitement is idle Providence. Part of their upcoming problem is that MC keeps adding points, not only extending the distance between PC and the rest of the conference, but shrinking the margin of error for PC to find a way to move up. With thirty games left in the HE regular season, PC plays in only six and the rest of those points have to go somewhere. Merrimack being a part of that mix doesn't do PC any favors.
What is in PC's favor is that all of their remaining series are against teams still mathematically within reach (BU, UML, MC). The Friars not only have to make up seven points on MC, likely including a sweep on the final weekend, but every point that MC doesn't get moves the rest of the pack along like a carrot at the other end of a Friar-held stick. Of course, ultimately, for PC, the goal is not just to pass MC to avoid the absolute cellar, but to pass someone else too, and extend their season.
Add in the games where the teams within reach play each other (BU/NU, BU/UVM, UML/UVM) and PC's uphill climb gets worse. If the teams ahead of them split each series the rest of the way, PC will be out of the playoffs by next Sunday. (They'd have 12, with a max of 20, and 8th place UVM would have 21.) PC's only real hope is that the points concentrate with certain teams and other teams get little to none (very, very close to none). They don't have to catch everyone, they only have to catch two.
That said, they could still end up 6th, and could still take the tb from BU and tie them at 22 - although not necessarily at the same time. That means that PC's range stays at 6-10 and BU can still fall to 10th place. At the other margins, MC winning and UNH being idle means that no one else's ranges move either.
MC keeps the In line at 31. UVM losing keeps the Out line at 19. 4th place BU keeping their max at 34 keeps the Home Lock line in place.
The last thing to figure out is Home Eligible. Starting from the edges and working our way in...
Since UNH, BC and Maine are already ahead of 4th, them taking all available points doesn't affect the math of possibilities for that final slot. Since PC can't reach it, ditto. After all of that, MC can't reach it either, so they can win their last undetermined series (UMA) and have no impact - which also finishes up UMA's schedule as all losses and leaves them at 22. That leaves us with the following unaccounted for series where we need to distribute points to minimize whoever ends up in 4th: BU/UVM, BU/NU, UML/UVM. The teams would all be starting from their current point totals.
So... looking at the top two of that group, BU and NU play two. Those are the points that are going to be hardest to minimize when resetting the benchmark. Splitting up those four points means that one of the two has to have at least 24. Since those would be the last of NU's undetermined games, and points, let's give that distinction to NU with a 3-1 balance. That means the new target to stay under for keeping 4th mathematically alive for those below it is 24. That's now easy enough to stay within by having UML sweep UVM, putting them at 24, and having UVM sweep BU, leaving both at 23.
Realize that this is not a prediction. Merely a model to see what's mathematically possible. If a team loses tbs to NU and UML, that doesn't mean they are out of the running. BU could split with NU and put BU at 24 and NU at 23. Likewise, UVM could steal a point at Tsongas and be the one at 24 with UML at 23. Any of the teams that you place at 23 in any scenario could take another point from somewhere else on their schedule making it a three or four way tie at 24. For that matter, UMA could hit 24 and MC could hit 24, adding to the dog pile. In fact, all six of those teams could still, mathematically, be tied at 24 at the same time - meaning that the final home ice team, the team missing the playoffs at ninth, and everyone in between would all be placing their seed in the hands of the tie-breaker math.
Also realize that this does not mean that PC is actually out, since the foursome of BU/NU/UML/UVM all hit at least 23 above and PC's max is 22. Those are scenarios (scenaria?) where we are trying to minimize the points held by the 4th seed to see how low it is possible to keep it. For PC to reach 6th, a different, almost diametrically-opposite, strategy is used. Instead of distributing the points as evenly as we can, we'd concentrate the points on fewer teams, leaving as many teams as possible for PC to catch - similar to piling all possible points on teams 1-3 in the above calculations, except also for teams in 4th and 5th as well. I've run the numbers and PC can still get 6th, using tbs.
All that these mathematical hypotheses mean is that, as of right now, if you can still reach 24, you are still alive for the final Home Ice spot and, therefore, Home Eligible.
OK, at first it looked like you were minimizing the effort. The good news is if that didn't make perfect sense it all changes after the first unexpected result comes in. So we have that to look forward to.