Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

[Patman]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

Todd... Between this and the overall complexity for a non-computer scientist in itself this is why I haven't had the motivation to generate within season NCAA/playoff odds. The rules in the leagues can be opaque and leads to conflicting results. The 3-way tie is usually the best example as which team you eliminate or choose first will affect the order.

The nature of hockey usually means such scenarios are unlikely... But as we see it's not inconcievable.

 

[JB]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

Personally, I think all-at-once is the fairest method - and the most transparent to the casual observer. Since all of the teams are contributing to the tie, shouldn't they all be considered simultaneously to determine the outcome for all of the teams? Given the choice between only bottom-up and top-down, I'd pick top down because at least the top choice seems correct to me, but I think that's a false choice.

I think this simultanous tie breaker makes the most sense. You only then fall to a sub level if two team remain tied within the simultanous tie breaker.

100% agree with you.

With H.E. experiencing more parity over the last 5 years I think 3+ way tie breakers are going to be come more common than the true days of the big 4.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

Todd, please keep us posted on Mr. Souris' response. I wonder if the Hockey East office is frantically wondering what the eff to do right now.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

Todd, we have not changed any of the tiebreaker procedures since I have been working for the league, so I am not sure what you are talking about. I don’t see any language in their about the lower team being separated.

-Pete

I didn't know jcarter worked for the league.

 

[Patman]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

I think this simultanous tie breaker makes the most sense. You only then fall to a sub level if two team remain tied within the simultanous tie breaker.

100% agree with you.

With H.E. experiencing more parity over the last 5 years I think 3+ way tie breakers are going to be come more common than the true days of the big 4.

I think that's awfully premature... for all the talk of parity the standings, by and large, the "parity" of the league hasn't really borne itself out... what you're seeing in general is parity of all of college hockey.

Anyhow, that's besides the point... seeing 3+ way ties aren't all that common... obviously not impossible but they are often not the norm.

Nevertheless, the critical matter is that the league leaves itself open to lawsuits relating to ambiguity. That's why there hasn't been a response yet. I'll bet you we'll quietly find an updated tie-breaking procedure set in the off-season.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

What would the standings be if we separated the teams based on the '08 tiebreakers?

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

I think the easiest thing for the league to do would be to say that they messed up in '08, since it wasn't a factor. That would avoid major problems right now.

 

[Patman]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

Question...

When they "toss from the bottom" is the bottom team immediately seeded into the bottom spot? Or is this procedure done to determine the team at top of the tie... if so do they start from scratch as if all the remaining teams are tied and then restart at tie-breaker #1?

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

do they start from scratch as if all the remaining teams are tied and they restart at tie-breaker #1?

This.

 

[JB]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

I think that's awfully premature... for all the talk of parity the standings, by and large, the "parity" of the league hasn't really borne itself out... what you're seeing in general is parity of all of college hockey.

Anyhow, that's besides the point... seeing 3+ way ties aren't all that common... obviously not impossible but they are often not the norm.

Nevertheless, the critical matter is that the league leaves itself open to lawsuits relating to ambiguity. That's why there hasn't been a response yet. I'll bet you we'll quietly find an updated tie-breaking procedure set in the off-season.

I have definately noticed a tightening of the league. All the teams are (in all of NCAA hockey, I can agree with that) are getting closer to each other. As that happens log jams like the one that existed in H.E. this year will likely be more common. If that happens more teams right around .500 means there are greater chances for 3-way+ ties and hence more should occur.

 

[Patman]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

I have definately noticed a tightening of the league. All the teams are (in all of NCAA hockey, I can agree with that) are getting closer to each other. As that happens log jams like the one that existed in H.E. this year will likely be more common. If that happens more teams right around .500 means there are greater chances for 3-way+ ties and hence more should occur.

I've spent the better part of the last 5 years watching more than a fair amount of UConn hockey... their last team would have blown the doors off the first team and they did just about as bad.

Its my intuition as a statistician that plays with this kind of stuff that situations that will pose problems are unlikely. I can play with some things a get a bit more of an hands-on understanding.

edit: Dealing with perfect parity and a tie-rate of about 16%... no home ice

Maximum size of tie in the standings -- Simulated Probability
0 - 0.0529
2 - 0.6599
3 - 0.2502
4 - 0.0338
5 - 0.0030
6 - 0.00012
7 and beyond... never happened
100,000 runs

Now, assume home ice with perfect parity and things should tighten up further but only slightly. So, it looks like I over-reached on the lack of concern for 3+ way ties... but as we see they aren't a problem this year. In general they happen in 28% of all seasons where we have perfect parity. So, in that case you would probably, in the nearer term, have a problem at some point. Let it be said that perfect parity is an extreme case... but this took me 20 minutes to whip up.

 

[jjmc85]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

What would the standings be if we separated the teams based on the '08 tiebreakers?

The standings would be the same. The only multi-team tie was BU, UML and Maine. H2H is the first tie breaker. In that group, we have

BU 4-2
ME 3-3
UML 2-4

If you do it like now, BU is placed third. Maine is fourth as they took the series from UML 2-1 this year.

If you do it like 2008, UML is fifth, and BU beats Maine because they won the season series 2-1.

It ended up not mattering, but it looks a lot sketchier.

I forget if I posted it here or on the UMass board, but last year (according to a UMass release), Hockey East used the same tie breakers as 2008, as they claimed they clinched a playoff spot and the only way that could have been true is if the tie breakers were from the bottom up.

Now all of a sudden, though the wording on the web page hasn't changed, and to my knowledge, there was no announcement of a rule change, they did. And, the league office is denying they changed the rules, although their own press releases contradict this statement.

If that five team tie had happened and UMass was eliminated when BU would have been eliminated in the past, I'd be extremely upset.

Are there press releases from previous years? What were the tiebreaking procedures in the 80s and 90s?

The league needs to put an example of a multi-team tie breaker on their webpage in plain sight for everyone to see. In all honesty, right now it looks like they are making it up as they go along.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

I've spent the better part of the last 5 years watching more than a fair amount of UConn hockey... their last team would have blown the doors off the first team and they did just about as bad.

Its my intuition as a statistician that plays with this kind of stuff that situations that will pose problems are unlikely. I can play with some things a get a bit more of an hands-on understanding.

edit: Dealing with perfect parity and a tie-rate of about 16%... no home ice

Maximum size of tie in the standings -- Simulated Probability
0 - 0.0529
2 - 0.6599
3 - 0.2502
4 - 0.0338
5 - 0.0030
6 - 0.00012
7 and beyond... never happened
100,000 runs

Now, assume home ice with perfect parity and things should tighten up further but only slightly. So, it looks like I over-reached on the lack of concern for 3+ way ties... but as we see they aren't a problem this year. In general they happen in 28% of all seasons where we have perfect parity. So, in that case you would probably, in the nearer term, have a problem at some point. Let it be said that perfect parity is an extreme case... but this took me 20 minutes to whip up.

i'm just telling you now.... keep this chit outta the lodge if you know what's good for ya!

 

[Patman]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

i'm just telling you now.... keep this chit outta the lodge if you know what's good for ya!

will do... unfortunately, its the only way we really have of gauging questions of frequency. We can't send the boys out on the ice and play 1,000 seasons

 

[JB]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

edit: Dealing with perfect parity and a tie-rate of about 16%... no home ice

Maximum size of tie in the standings -- Simulated Probability
0 - 0.0529
2 - 0.6599
3 - 0.2502
4 - 0.0338
5 - 0.0030
6 - 0.00012
7 and beyond... never happened
100,000 runs

Now, assume home ice with perfect parity and things should tighten up further but only slightly. So, it looks like I over-reached on the lack of concern for 3+ way ties... but as we see they aren't a problem this year. In general they happen in 28% of all seasons where we have perfect parity. So, in that case you would probably, in the nearer term, have a problem at some point. Let it be said that perfect parity is an extreme case... but this took me 20 minutes to whip up.

First - cool that you could put that together and that quick. I haven't done stats work in over 10 years, so it would have taken a while if ever.

Second - 100% agree with Mookie - best to keep this under your hat... Doesn't seem like something you can use to pick up chicks...

Third - I was thinking about the league as it was (seemingly, spread out) vs. how it is today and potentially going forward (seemingly tight). A tight league is more teams around .500 hence more chances for ties in the standings. It is interesting to note that 3 way ties are 28% with perfect parity I would have thought it would be higher.

Thanks for running the numbers.

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

Todd, please keep us posted on Mr. Souris' response. I wonder if the Hockey East office is frantically wondering what the eff to do right now.

As of the moment of this post, still nothing.

I'll eventually ping him again, and if still no response, I do have a mutual contact with Bertagna, so maybe I'll just end up asking him. The commissioner should know the answer - or at least know of the issue - right?

 

[Priceless]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

As of the moment of this post, still nothing.

I'll eventually ping him again, and if still no response, I do have a mutual contact with Bertagna, so maybe I'll just end up asking him. The commissioner should know the answer - or at least know of the issue - right?

I hope you won't be offended if no one holds their breath waiting for an answer from the Commish

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

Question...

When they "toss from the bottom" is the bottom team immediately seeded into the bottom spot?

Yes. The bottom of that group.

Or is this procedure done to determine the team at top of the tie... if so do they start from scratch as if all the remaining teams are tied and then restart at tie-breaker #1?

However they decide to pull one team out (top-down promotion, bottom-up elimination, dartboard toss, alphabetization, ...) they then start afresh with the remaining teams.

That was part of the point with my hypothetical UMA/NU/UVM example. When looked at all at once, NU is 2nd because they drop to the 2nd tb, League Wins and get the order above.

If you pull UVM from the bottom of the stack because they had the fewest league wins of the three, the remaining two start all over and NU beat UMA H2H and so would be the top team.

If you promote UMA out of the top of the initial tb because they had the most league wins, then you start over with NU losing the H2H to UVM and dropping to the bottom.

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

will do... unfortunately, its the only way we really have of gauging questions of frequency. We can't send the boys out on the ice and play 1,000 seasons

True, but we can look at past seasons as a small sample.

I did some research a couple of seasons ago (maybe 5?) that almost every season in HE history has had at least one tie in the standings at the end of the year. There was maybe a 10% "not" rate, which matches up pretty closely with your ideal parity analysis, if I'm reading that correctly.

FWIW, I also seem to remember that at that time that no 7-seed had ever beaten a 2-seed in the QFs - and BU had played PC in 20 playoff games in the first 20 seasons of HE. (Hence my thinking that it was about 5 years ago.)

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2009-10 edition

I hope you won't be offended if no one holds their breath waiting for an answer from the Commish

Are you suggesting I ask Michael Chiklis?