College Football 2022: “Here’s a twenty, bury two.”

[Jimjamesak]

LMFAO

They put fsu vs UGA in the orange bowl. Are they actively trying for a split national championship?

I saw a post somewhere saying that FSU should show up to the Orange Bowl and ruin the whole thing for ESPN by refusing to take a snap. Just a constant parade of delay of game penalties.

 

[Jimjamesak]

Welp.

Boo Corrigan is the Athletic Director at North Carolina State.

Yup, the ACC is done.

 

[Jimjamesak]

oh come on we just got here!

Might be time to give Wazzu a call...

 

[Bronco]

This is BS but not unexpected. The whole reason to have smoke filled rooms is to make it so the powerful interests are appeased. ESPN came out HARD for the SEC and to nobodys surprise Alabama got in.

 

[MichVandal]

This is BS but not unexpected. The whole reason to have smoke filled rooms is to make it so the powerful interests are appeased. ESPN came out HARD for the SEC and to nobodys surprise Alabama got in.

The conflict of interest for ESPN is pretty staggering here. As I see it, the whole harbaugh campaign was also about fox v the mouse as it was for hatred of Jim. And for this- the sec network is part of the mouse just like the televising of the entire cfp. They want to double dip the profits.

it’s always funny how they discount the next to last game cupcakes the entire conference schedules to rest up. And now, they had to throw UGA under the bus for sos.

Oh, well.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Not sure if you were referring to the ACC as a whole, or FSU. In any event, the ACC went 6-4 against the SEC and 4-3 against the B1G this season. FSU beat LSU and Florida.

The B1G did not play a single game against the SEC this season, and had a losing record against the ACC and Pac 12.

FSU.

And I'm less inclined to care much about inter conference record when it's not clear if they beat Minnesota or Vanderbilt or a team like PSU.

The vast majority of ratings systems kept FSU out of the top four. That's a pretty good indictment of their record.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

FSU.

And I'm less inclined to care much about inter conference record when it's not clear if they beat Minnesota or Vanderbilt or a team like PSU.

The vast majority of ratings systems kept FSU out of the top four. That's a pretty good indictment of their record.

Well, FSU beat LSU and Florida. And everyone else they played.

FWIW, Florida State's strength of record (which the Playoff Committee had repeatedly cited to as a key metric in close cases in every other season) was also better than Alabama's.

Also, there simply aren't enough college football games to really utilize "ratings systems" to differentiate teams. There are barely enough in college hockey, and we play 3x as many games.

While I normally hate the Criminoles, and root against them whenever I can, I really hope they blow out Georgia and claim a share of the national championship.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Well, FSU beat LSU and Florida. And everyone else they played.

FWIW, Florida State's strength of record (which the Playoff Committee had repeatedly cited to as a key metric in close cases in every other season) was also better than Alabama's.

Also, there simply aren't enough college football games to really utilize "ratings systems" to differentiate teams. There are barely enough in college hockey, and we play 3x as many games.

While I normally hate the Criminoles, and root against them whenever I can, I really hope they blow out Georgia and claim a share of the national championship.

SOR is a subjective measurement and is just another ratings system. They use human-weighted attributes such as "control of game" and rest between games, etc. it's proprietary and not publicly shared. It can't be applied equally across all systems.

Strength of schedule is a measurement that can be applied the exact same across all ratings systems. It's a simple average of all opponents ratings. It is not the same thing as strength of schedule.

With enough ratings systems of varying methodologies, you can average out biases each has. Any individual ratings system can have a significant bias depending on what the designer wants to promote (raw result, margin, yardage, etc). As you increase the number, theoretically the biases take a smaller overall weight in the composite and you can start to distill the best teams.

The problem with humans in a back room picking, like you seem to be advocating for, is that you get results like this. Where media outlets can make a hard push for teams that give ratings instead of the actual best teams. You can schedule several blowouts against barely 1A schools and reduce the number of conference games if you have enough of a vested interest from the media. How is that any better?

you will never ever ever have a system that plays enough games to root out every possible blind spot or even a plurality of them. So instead you find every way you can to evaluate a team and average them.

 

[Spartanforlife4]

KRACH has Michigan's SOS a bit higher than UW

edit: oh snap. That was BEFORE the championships. Yeah, in no universe an you day Michigan had a weaker SOS

Where are you seeing that? The only Krach I could find for football was last year's.

ESPN has UW at 11, Michigan at 33.
Sagarin has UW at 5, Michigan at 56.
Warren Nolan's ELO ranking has UW at 22, Michigan at 56.

I'd be surprised if there's a metric that has UM as a stronger schedule with these so far apart.

 

[Bronco]

Where are you seeing that? The only Krach I could find for football was last year's.

ESPN has UW at 11, Michigan at 33.
Sagarin has UW at 5, Michigan at 56.
Warren Nolan's ELO ranking has UW at 22, Michigan at 56.

I'd be surprised if there's a metric that has UM as a stronger schedule with these so far apart.

It is the same metric used to keep FSU out - vibes, feels, and money. But mostly money. ESPN gets to have Saban vs Harbaugh! The month's programming just writes itself!

 

[dxmnkd316]

Where are you seeing that? The only Krach I could find for football was last year's.

ESPN has UW at 11, Michigan at 33.
Sagarin has UW at 5, Michigan at 56.
Warren Nolan's ELO ranking has UW at 22, Michigan at 56.

I'd be surprised if there's a metric that has UM as a stronger schedule with these so far apart.

ESPN uses a proprietary SOR which isn't SOS.

KRACH can be found here
http://dbaker.50webs.com/cfb23/rank.html

 

[dxmnkd316]

Where are you seeing that? The only Krach I could find for football was last year's.

ESPN has UW at 11, Michigan at 33.
Sagarin has UW at 5, Michigan at 56.
Warren Nolan's ELO ranking has UW at 22, Michigan at 56.

I'd be surprised if there's a metric that has UM as a stronger schedule with these so far apart.

You can find about 60 of the ratings systems here (these are just the ones with the latest games figured in. IIRC they have about 100-120 total systems in a given week)
https://masseyratings.com/ranks

click each one to see if they offer SOS.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

SOR is a subjective measurement and is just another ratings system. They use human-weighted attributes such as "control of game" and rest between games, etc. it's proprietary and not publicly shared. It can't be applied equally across all systems.

Strength of schedule is a measurement that can be applied the exact same across all ratings systems. It's a simple average of all opponents ratings. It is not the same thing as strength of schedule.

With enough ratings systems of varying methodologies, you can average out biases each has. Any individual ratings system can have a significant bias depending on what the designer wants to promote (raw result, margin, yardage, etc). As you increase the number, theoretically the biases take a smaller overall weight in the composite and you can start to distill the best teams.

The problem with humans in a back room picking, like you seem to be advocating for, is that you get results like this. Where media outlets can make a hard push for teams that give ratings instead of the actual best teams. You can schedule several blowouts against barely 1A schools and reduce the number of conference games if you have enough of a vested interest from the media. How is that any better?

you will never ever ever have a system that plays enough games to root out every possible blind spot or even a plurality of them. So instead you find every way you can to evaluate a team and average them.

I believe we have had this debate multiple times before, so we will have to agree to disagree. Combining dozens or hundreds of "systems" that each have insufficient data does not cure the fact that they all have insufficient data.

 

[Spartanforlife4]

ESPN uses a proprietary SOR which isn't SOS.

KRACH can be found here
http://dbaker.50webs.com/cfb23/rank.html

Interesting. That has UM at 7 and UW at 9. UW is around where others have them but Michigan is way higher.

ESPN has SOR and SOS. Although oddly about a half hour ago, at least for me, both of them were suddenly reset (and says updated as of tomorrow's date?) and show 0 and 1 for everyone.

DRatings has UW 8, UM 44
Colley has UW 11, UM 32
Massey's own has UW 4, UM 56

KRACH also has Liberty 20-30 spots higher than the others I've looked at at 101. Most have them near dead last around 133. Highest I think I saw outside of that was 120. PSU, OSU, UM, and FSU are all way higher than other metrics, like 20-40 spots higher. I don't know much about the KRACH besides that CHN wants it to replace the Pairwise, but at least for however they're calculating the SOS there seems to be some kind of feedback loop.

Not that any of it should matter at this point. The committee went against all the precedent they've set since 2014 to get the SEC in.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Interesting. That has UM at 7 and UW at 9. UW is around where others have them but Michigan is way higher.

ESPN has SOR and SOS. Although oddly about a half hour ago, at least for me, both of them were suddenly reset (and says updated as of tomorrow's date?) and show 0 and 1 for everyone.

DRatings has UW 8, UM 44
Colley has UW 11, UM 32
Massey's own has UW 4, UM 56

KRACH also has Liberty 20-30 spots higher than the others I've looked at at 101. Most have them near dead last around 133. Highest I think I saw outside of that was 120. PSU, OSU, UM, and FSU are all way higher than other metrics, like 20-40 spots higher. I don't know much about the KRACH besides that CHN wants it to replace the Pairwise, but at least for however they're calculating the SOS there seems to be some kind of feedback loop.

Not that any of it should matter at this point. The committee went against all the precedent they've set since 2014 to get the SEC in.

It all comes down to what systems reward which measurement. If wins are paramount then liberty should be very high.

I think KRACH only uses record with some KRACH methods adjusting for location and some even adjusting for margin. Anyways, all of this is to say: it depends.

it's why I prefer an array of systems.

 

[dxmnkd316]

I believe we have had this debate multiple times before, so we will have to agree to disagree. Combining dozens or hundreds of "systems" that each have insufficient data does not cure the fact that they all have insufficient data.

Probably.

And no single system or human will ever have all the data. So have an infinite number and reduce the individual weighted errors to zero.

 

[Jimjamesak]

It is the same metric used to keep FSU out - vibes, feels, and money. But mostly money. ESPN gets to have Saban vs Harbaugh! The month's programming just writes itself!

Saban vs Harbaugh, Sark vs his old team. Storylines all over the place...

 

[Jimjamesak]

The most scathing article against the CFP Committee…

The College Football Playoff selection committee bowed to its master. Congratulations, Greg Sankey, you run college football. Give the SEC Commissioner his crown and scepter.

The committee tossed aside the sanctity of college football’s regular season and shut out an undefeated Power Five conference champion for the first time to make room for the SEC’s one-loss champion, Alabama, the bluest of bluebloods.

The games always mattered in college football. Results always mattered – right up until the point the SEC was at risk of being left out in the cold.

By shutting Florida State (13-0) out of the playoff after the Seminoles lost their star quarterback to injury in Week 11, the committee embraced the idea of a beauty pageant determining the playoff field.

Alabama sizzled in a fancy outfit and stilettos in its final trip down the catwalk, while Sankey whipped the crowd into a frenzy.

…from Tuscaloosa News?

 

[JF_Gophers]

And here I thought the P5 was in agreement that undefeated conference champs would always get in, unless all 5 met that criteria.

 

[Slap Shot]

I've not seen any SOS ranking that has FSU anywhere near Alabama, and FL was 5-7.

I wouldn't have protested had FSU been chosen, but conversely I don't see Bama getting in to be an eff up either.