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Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
- Thread starter Kepler
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Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
Still say Jeb is the nominee. Trump will wait around until he gets as much publicity as he possibly can via leading in the polls, the debates, etc. Then in about 4 months when Trump falls out of favor, he will go third party. He doesn't like to lose...and if he doesn't get the nomination, he'll be losing. As a third party candidate, Trump loses less, he gets the last laugh on the GOP candidates with whom he will have been fighting for 6 months, and he stays in the limelight as long as possible.
Trump says he would welcome Palin on his ticket.
Still say Jeb is the nominee. Trump will wait around until he gets as much publicity as he possibly can via leading in the polls, the debates, etc. Then in about 4 months when Trump falls out of favor, he will go third party. He doesn't like to lose...and if he doesn't get the nomination, he'll be losing. As a third party candidate, Trump loses less, he gets the last laugh on the GOP candidates with whom he will have been fighting for 6 months, and he stays in the limelight as long as possible.
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
If Jebbers! is the nominee, somebody is going to be looking at a 3rd party bid. I just don't see him serving up the raw meat that the base wants during the campaign (hence Trump's popularity). Bush isn't the candidate of the black helicopter, Obama's a Muslim, Why Did We Take Down the Confederate Flag crowd. That's 3/4ths of the base.
Consider this, the party has taken turns between nominating its most conservative (mainstream) candidate and a more moderate one who had an alternative on the right. Goldwater - hard core righty, Nixon - probably the more conservative of the bunch (Romney, 60's version of Reagan), Ford - More moderate, Reagan - More conservative, Bush - sorta more moderate, Dole - Moderate, Bush II - conservative, McCain - moderate, Romney - moderate.
By that count, and when I say moderate I mean relative to the GOP not the general electorate, we're due for a rock-ribbed, confederate flag wavin, Ted Nugent lovin conservative! Ted Cruz, come on down!
If Jebbers! is the nominee, somebody is going to be looking at a 3rd party bid. I just don't see him serving up the raw meat that the base wants during the campaign (hence Trump's popularity). Bush isn't the candidate of the black helicopter, Obama's a Muslim, Why Did We Take Down the Confederate Flag crowd. That's 3/4ths of the base.
Consider this, the party has taken turns between nominating its most conservative (mainstream) candidate and a more moderate one who had an alternative on the right. Goldwater - hard core righty, Nixon - probably the more conservative of the bunch (Romney, 60's version of Reagan), Ford - More moderate, Reagan - More conservative, Bush - sorta more moderate, Dole - Moderate, Bush II - conservative, McCain - moderate, Romney - moderate.
By that count, and when I say moderate I mean relative to the GOP not the general electorate, we're due for a rock-ribbed, confederate flag wavin, Ted Nugent lovin conservative! Ted Cruz, come on down!
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
Jeb will not be the nominee. If he is then it's just Mittens and McCain all over again with even more baggage. Why would the GOP do that again? Their entire base will revolt.
Jeb will not be the nominee. If he is then it's just Mittens and McCain all over again with even more baggage. Why would the GOP do that again? Their entire base will revolt.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
Hey, usually they promise something 30 years down the road.
And remember, the GREATEST PROMISE EVER had a deadline safely past his second term.
Hey, usually they promise something 30 years down the road.
And remember, the GREATEST PROMISE EVER had a deadline safely past his second term.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
The same could have been said for 2012. Romney was unappealing to the herpa-derps (really, to anyone), THE COMMINIST MUSLIN HITLAR!!11! was about to send his army of ACORN robot monsters to rape all white Christians, etc., they were ACOMIN FOR OUR GUNZ!, and of course who can forget Ebola?
If the Tea Party couldn't get it for the Unblackening, how much less likely for an AIPAC shill well to the right of him?
Jeb! will be the nominee, there will be no third party insurgency, all the usual suspects will close ranks at the convention, and the election will come down to FL and OH. Again.
The same could have been said for 2012. Romney was unappealing to the herpa-derps (really, to anyone), THE COMMINIST MUSLIN HITLAR!!11! was about to send his army of ACORN robot monsters to rape all white Christians, etc., they were ACOMIN FOR OUR GUNZ!, and of course who can forget Ebola?
If the Tea Party couldn't get it for the Unblackening, how much less likely for an AIPAC shill well to the right of him?
Jeb! will be the nominee, there will be no third party insurgency, all the usual suspects will close ranks at the convention, and the election will come down to FL and OH. Again.
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ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
So, you think they're going all in on boring establishment for 3 elections in a row? I don't think so.
So, you think they're going all in on boring establishment for 3 elections in a row? I don't think so.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
I think they don't have a choice. There's a huge gap between the establish dude and the clown car. If one of the clowns does an about-face and starts acting mature and conciliatory, he (sorry Carly) would have a clean niche to themselves. I think this was supposed to be Rubio's gameplan, but the Trumpification of the GOP race looks like it's going to make them all go full derp.
Jeb! is going to be the only reasonable choice.
This also means Jeb! doesn't need to go derp unless he wants to, so he can selectively derp out on say guns and Israel (the latter is easy since he's already there), while actually facing real fact when it comes to say health insurance or climate change. His father and brother each talked out of both sides of their mouth when required; Bushes seem to be good at it, perhaps they practice at Thanksgiving.
Being superficially centrist allowed Dubya to sneak into office. That used to be the Republican Gambit: you talk centrist but you govern radical. It depends upon most Americans not paying attention, and it seems to work.
I just don't see anybody from the Crazy Train challenging him. The wizards of id are funny, but if they start rolling up delegates the adults will step in.
I think they don't have a choice. There's a huge gap between the establish dude and the clown car. If one of the clowns does an about-face and starts acting mature and conciliatory, he (sorry Carly) would have a clean niche to themselves. I think this was supposed to be Rubio's gameplan, but the Trumpification of the GOP race looks like it's going to make them all go full derp.
Jeb! is going to be the only reasonable choice.
This also means Jeb! doesn't need to go derp unless he wants to, so he can selectively derp out on say guns and Israel (the latter is easy since he's already there), while actually facing real fact when it comes to say health insurance or climate change. His father and brother each talked out of both sides of their mouth when required; Bushes seem to be good at it, perhaps they practice at Thanksgiving.
Being superficially centrist allowed Dubya to sneak into office. That used to be the Republican Gambit: you talk centrist but you govern radical. It depends upon most Americans not paying attention, and it seems to work.
I just don't see anybody from the Crazy Train challenging him. The wizards of id are funny, but if they start rolling up delegates the adults will step in.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
Well, this is WHY I was picking Walker. Walker looks establishment. Smells establishment. Has all the street cred (Governor, in with the Koch's, passed all the laws the GOP loves in a purple state, etc. etc. etc.) and at the SAME TIME is one of the biggest true believers in the stable. He's Cruz without the derp. He's Trump without the derp.
Jeb is just another McCain, Mitt Romney clone. Protect the 1%ers money while pretending to care about Cleetus and his confederate flag. Walker cares about Cleetus.
Well, this is WHY I was picking Walker. Walker looks establishment. Smells establishment. Has all the street cred (Governor, in with the Koch's, passed all the laws the GOP loves in a purple state, etc. etc. etc.) and at the SAME TIME is one of the biggest true believers in the stable. He's Cruz without the derp. He's Trump without the derp.
Jeb is just another McCain, Mitt Romney clone. Protect the 1%ers money while pretending to care about Cleetus and his confederate flag. Walker cares about Cleetus.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
I'm sure I don't know Walker as well as you do, but he seems like the usual silver spoon Republican who believes inequality reflects merit and wants to protect the rich from "the mob." He cares about Cleetus like I care about spiders: they can be useful, but the moment they get in my way... no soup for them.
I believe Walker could still fill that niche, though. But he seems to play the fundy organ when he can, and that will not get you invited to dinner with the polite old money.
I'm sure I don't know Walker as well as you do, but he seems like the usual silver spoon Republican who believes inequality reflects merit and wants to protect the rich from "the mob." He cares about Cleetus like I care about spiders: they can be useful, but the moment they get in my way... no soup for them.
I believe Walker could still fill that niche, though. But he seems to play the fundy organ when he can, and that will not get you invited to dinner with the polite old money.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
Polite old money is the Koch's. No one is more Koch then Walker. Playing the fundy organ appeases the Cleetus base. May even get more of them out to vote and they're going to need massive turnout this time around unless Hillary does what I suspect she will which is blow it.
Polite old money is the Koch's. No one is more Koch then Walker. Playing the fundy organ appeases the Cleetus base. May even get more of them out to vote and they're going to need massive turnout this time around unless Hillary does what I suspect she will which is blow it.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
No. No, it's really not. The Kochs, the Waltons, etc are all nouveau riche. The real old money treats them like they have collective BO. They are not at the table when the real stuff gets discussed. The Rockefellers are still on the waiting list to join old money. The Astors just got in.
Nixon showed you can win the Republican nomination with new money even when the old money loathes you. But if we're talking real old money -- the kind that runs banks, foundations, half of New York City, three-quarters of western Europe, Harvard Law and the Supreme Court -- the Bushes have those connections, but none of these other mollusks do.
No. No, it's really not. The Kochs, the Waltons, etc are all nouveau riche. The real old money treats them like they have collective BO. They are not at the table when the real stuff gets discussed. The Rockefellers are still on the waiting list to join old money. The Astors just got in.
Nixon showed you can win the Republican nomination with new money even when the old money loathes you. But if we're talking real old money -- the kind that runs banks, foundations, half of New York City, three-quarters of western Europe, Harvard Law and the Supreme Court -- the Bushes have those connections, but none of these other mollusks do.
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ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
Ok. I see. Someday you'll have to explain to me how polite old money's political party was co-opted by the lunatic fringe.
Ok. I see. Someday you'll have to explain to me how polite old money's political party was co-opted by the lunatic fringe.
Jimjamesak
Already insane, UAA making it worse
Brainwashing via media and a pretended common interest.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
Polite old money owns a piece of both parties. Or, more accurately, polite old money is more foundational -- the parties float on top of it. The GOP has typically been more directly reflective of its values, simply because preservation of the status quo is the name of the game for old money (and the obfuscation and protection of assets is part of the game). So while elections and parties have some effect, old money is mostly beyond the reach of the electorate, of politics, even of commerce. Elections are important because the only way old money can ever really lose is a revolution that goes all the way through the deep structure of society. Inequality and poverty are embers for that wildfire, so people must have at least the illusion of control over their political decisions. That gives us hope and quells our anger.
The last thirty years has been the history of how loonies came to control a big portion of the GOP, and that's been kind of like a 19th century "pan" movement of ethnic self-discovery. Just as, say, Czechs created an ethnic self-identity and then used it to cleave their territory out of the control of the Austro-Hungarians, so herpa-derps created their own self-identity and then started a separatist movement inside the GOP to become their own "state within a state". This is still a work in progress -- but they have the precedent of their segregation as Dixiecrats to fall back on as a model for how to effectively hold their power locally while protecting their agenda by playing balance of power politics nationally. It worked from 2000-06 and it could still work.
Polite old money owns a piece of both parties. Or, more accurately, polite old money is more foundational -- the parties float on top of it. The GOP has typically been more directly reflective of its values, simply because preservation of the status quo is the name of the game for old money (and the obfuscation and protection of assets is part of the game). So while elections and parties have some effect, old money is mostly beyond the reach of the electorate, of politics, even of commerce. Elections are important because the only way old money can ever really lose is a revolution that goes all the way through the deep structure of society. Inequality and poverty are embers for that wildfire, so people must have at least the illusion of control over their political decisions. That gives us hope and quells our anger.
The last thirty years has been the history of how loonies came to control a big portion of the GOP, and that's been kind of like a 19th century "pan" movement of ethnic self-discovery. Just as, say, Czechs created an ethnic self-identity and then used it to cleave their territory out of the control of the Austro-Hungarians, so herpa-derps created their own self-identity and then started a separatist movement inside the GOP to become their own "state within a state". This is still a work in progress -- but they have the precedent of their segregation as Dixiecrats to fall back on as a model for how to effectively hold their power locally while protecting their agenda by playing balance of power politics nationally. It worked from 2000-06 and it could still work.
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ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
Aaaah, so it's like a puppet show. GOP is one puppet, and Democrats are the other puppet. The puppet master is Old Money who doesn't have to care who wins because they control everything anyway. So, we truly have reached full bore 100% plutocracy status. I suspected, but now I know.
Meanwhile, Trump says if Obama could run for a third term he'd cream him, AND he'd love to Palin on his team. Is Trump old money or new money? I'm guessing new.
Aaaah, so it's like a puppet show. GOP is one puppet, and Democrats are the other puppet. The puppet master is Old Money who doesn't have to care who wins because they control everything anyway. So, we truly have reached full bore 100% plutocracy status. I suspected, but now I know.
Meanwhile, Trump says if Obama could run for a third term he'd cream him, AND he'd love to Palin on his team. Is Trump old money or new money? I'm guessing new.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
Trump is like a hillbilly who wins the lottery. He's not even new money -- he's accidental money. His great grand-children will be joining Justin Bieber's and Roger Clemens' in the poorhouse.
Trump is like a hillbilly who wins the lottery. He's not even new money -- he's accidental money. His great grand-children will be joining Justin Bieber's and Roger Clemens' in the poorhouse.
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
I wish I could be the hillbilly that won the lottery. Sigh.
I wish I could be the hillbilly that won the lottery. Sigh.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
I don't think it's as nefarious or ham-fisted as that. Old money isn't a villain; their prime directive is just to keep the mob away from them. They've escaped the gravity well of wealth completely -- money is quite literally no object anymore. The economic system is like gold stars you use to track your kids' chores. Most so-called "revolutions" are just the kids stealing the tin you keep the gold stars in. Government is one kid figuring out how to make his own gold stars. Capitalism is the kid with the most gold stars forcing the other kids to work for him. Monarchy was the gold stars come from God. Socialism is gold stars to each according to his needs. But no matter what happens in the gold star racket, that's not the currency you are living by, so while all those things can create annoyances, the only thing that could ever really hurt you is if your kids pulled a Menendez brothers on you so they could steal your actual car and bank balance.
I don't think it's as nefarious or ham-fisted as that. Old money isn't a villain; their prime directive is just to keep the mob away from them. They've escaped the gravity well of wealth completely -- money is quite literally no object anymore. The economic system is like gold stars you use to track your kids' chores. Most so-called "revolutions" are just the kids stealing the tin you keep the gold stars in. Government is one kid figuring out how to make his own gold stars. Capitalism is the kid with the most gold stars forcing the other kids to work for him. Monarchy was the gold stars come from God. Socialism is gold stars to each according to his needs. But no matter what happens in the gold star racket, that's not the currency you are living by, so while all those things can create annoyances, the only thing that could ever really hurt you is if your kids pulled a Menendez brothers on you so they could steal your actual car and bank balance.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good
Me too. And my great-grandchildren can go suck it; I'll leave them NOTHING!
Me too. And my great-grandchildren can go suck it; I'll leave them NOTHING!
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