Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

[Kepler]

Continue.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Here's a fun one. Americans now like Bush more than Obama. Let the wailing begin.

https://www.yahoo.com/politics/more-...609395871.html

The fact that Carter's rating is north of 50% tells you that those opinions are heavily based on Americans reflecting on a President's entire career, including post-POTUS accomplishments. Carter was a terrible President, but his charity work since is probably dragging his numbers up.

Similarly, as time goes by and we reflect on Bush II, people are more inclined to remember the "just folks" personality that got him elected twice, and forget all of his blunders and mistakes in office. Or maybe we just get a kick out of all the classic "Bushisms", who knows?

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

And Hillary staying the course is not a situation where there is no movement toward Dem interests. This is as nonsensical as me saying Jeb Bush (or any other Rep candidate) wouldn't move anything toward Republican interests. Staying the course, when the course is an existing Dem administration, is moving things further and further toward Dem interests. I can't believe anyone would argue this.

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

The fact that Carter's rating is north of 50% tells you that those opinions are heavily based on Americans reflecting on a President's entire career, including post-POTUS accomplishments. Carter was a terrible President, but his charity work since is probably dragging his numbers up.

Similarly, as time goes by and we reflect on Bush II, people are more inclined to remember the "just folks" personality that got him elected twice, and forget all of his blunders and mistakes in office. Or maybe we just get a kick out of all the "Bushisms", who knows?

Certainly people tend to view former Presidents more favorably over time, in general, as they aren't making the hard/controversial calls anymore. Still a fun tidbit.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

And Hillary staying the course is not a situation where there is no movement toward Dem interests. This is as nonsensical as me saying Jeb Bush (or any other Rep candidate) wouldn't move anything toward Republican interests. Staying the course, when the course is an existing Dem administration, is moving things further and further toward Dem interests. I can't believe anyone would argue this.

It all comes back to "compared to what?" I don't know what you're using as a baseline. My baseline -- the present moment -- is well-defined. I can't believe anyone would argue this, either.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Certainly people tend to view former Presidents more favorably over time, in general, as they aren't making the hard/controversial calls anymore. Still a fun tidbit.

I think all it shows is Americans have a really short memory and attention span. "Invade Iraq? Wasn't that President McCain?"

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

It all comes back to "compared to what?" I don't know what you're using as a baseline. My baseline -- the present moment -- is well-defined. I can't believe anyone would argue this, either.

You're really arguing about a trendline, as the trendline is going Dem at an Obama rate, which obvious tilts toward Dem interests. Once Obama is gone, the options will be a Dem (probably Hillary), who will continue to move things toward Dem interests, or a Rep that would at least try to slow this disastrous slide. A Hillary trendline will also tilt toward Dem interests, though one could argue whether Obama or Hillary would/will move more strongly in the Dem direction. But they both have/will move it that way unless Hillary radically changes into a conservative the morning after she's elected.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

You're really arguing about a trendline, as the trendline is going Dem at an Obama rate, which obvious tilts toward Dem interests. Once Obama is gone, the options will be a Dem (probably Hillary), who will continue to move things toward Dem interests, or a Rep that would at least try to slow this disastrous slide. A Hillary trendline will also tilt toward Dem interests, though one could argue whether Obama or Hillary would/will move more strongly in the Dem direction. But they both have/will move it that way unless Hillary radically changes into a conservative the morning after she's elected.

I see what you're saying but my whole point is it's not a trendline. There is no "momentum" in politics, and in fact no "velocity" or "acceleration." Those are just convenient modeling concepts we use after the fact. But the politics of the moment is static -- if you get Obamacare today that doesn't increase your odds of getting Single Payer tomorrow -- it just means Obamacare fit the existing political realities of today. "Position" as an analogy from the world of physical extension to the world of an ideological concept is useful, but it leads to mistakes like thinking there is political "momentum" -- tending, if you will. In reality, you have to fit the policy to the political reality with every new day; yesterday's victory or defeat in itself doesn't imply anything about tomorrow.

Football is actually a much better analogy. An 8-yard run on first down doesn't grant the runner any momentum on second down -- he starts from a new spot on the field but still at rest. It may mean things about the relative strength of the offense and defense that suggest probabilities in getting more yardage in future, but the achievement in itself dies out the second the whistle is blown.

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

I see what you're saying but my whole point is it's not a trendline. There is no "momentum" in politics, and in fact no "velocity" or "acceleration." Those are just convenient modeling concepts we use after the fact. But the politics of the moment is static -- if you get Obamacare today that doesn't increase your odds of getting Single Payer tomorrow -- it just means Obamacare fit the existing political realities of today. "Position" as an analogy from the world of physical extension to the world of an ideological concept is useful, but it leads to mistakes like thinking there is political "momentum" -- tending, if you will. In realty, you have to fit the policy to the political reality with every new day; yesterday's victory or defeat in itself doesn't imply anything about tomorrow.

Football is actually a much better analogy. An 8-yard run on first down doesn't grant the runner any momentum on second down -- he starts from a new spot on the field but still at rest. It may mean things about the relative strength of the offense and defense that suggest probabilities in getting more yardage in future, but the achievement in itself dies out the second the whistle is blown.

Well then we agree it's not a trendline. To me that's what it sounded like you were talking about, where the expectation was that Hillary would continue to tilt things toward Dem interests, continuing what Obama has done, but you were bemoaning that Hillary wouldn't tilt at an even faster rate. My only point was that Hillary will inevitably tilt things further toward Dem interests if she's sitting in the White House, and it sounded to me like you weren't expecting that to happen.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Well then we agree it's not a trendline. To me that's what it sounded like you were talking about, where the expectation was that Hillary would continue to tilt things toward Dem interests, continuing what Obama has done, but you were bemoaning that Hillary wouldn't tilt at an even faster rate. My only point was that Hillary will inevitably tilt things further toward Dem interests if she's sitting in the White House, and it sounded to me like you weren't expecting that to happen.

Hillary will pursue the type of Democratic policies that we're currently seeing from Obama -- call it "limousine liberalism." Her social policies will probably be a little stronger on women's issues and a little weaker on racial justice, but not dramatically so in either direction. She'll keep Obama's stone cold killer drone program and she'll side with the hawks and the surveillance state most of the time. On Wall Street and the financial services industry in general she will probably be just as tentative as Obama if not worse.

Hillary strikes me as still living in the 80s and thinking "I can't say or do anything too liberal or they'll crucify me as soft on crime / soft on defense / welfare state loving and starry-eyed naive. But the country has changed significantly and the financial crisis brought home the failure of supply side capitalism and deregulation to a huge swath of the country, even many conservatives. She's obviously very smart, but she hasn't talked to a normal human being in 23 years. She's basically a Beltway Hatchling at this point, and is a K Street and pundit class prisoner of conventional wisdom that is decades out of date.

Washington DC was oblivious to the conservative shift of America from the later 60s through the late 70s and only woke up to it 12 years late in 1980. They are now making the same mistake with the liberal counter-shift in America that began with revulsion against the neocons and continued with the full horror of the crony capitalist crisis in 2007. The country hasn't just moved left on social issues; the pendulum is also swinging back on economic issues. So far the Democrats have only delivered on social policy; fiscal policy is still firmly rooted in Reagan's debacle as the whole political system is bribed to keep it there. Hillary 2016 is like Ford 1976 -- a trooper/holdover from an in-party philosophy that is ebbing away its last drops before being replaced by new blood.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Whenever somebody posts something about GWB becoming popular again (and I realize Bob isn't being overly serious about it) I always ask the same question:

"So, does that mean Bush will be campaigning with the GOP nominee next year?" Oddly enough, I never get an affirmative response.

But back to the point. Kep, you gotta give it up for Hillary after reading this article:

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a35474/hillary-clinton-voting-rights-act/

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

But back to the point. Kep, you gotta give it up for Hillary after reading this article:

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a35474/hillary-clinton-voting-rights-act/

There's very little in there that's substantive. I'm glad her campaign manager and focus group coordinator realize voter suppression and the Republicans' new Jim Crow is a huge threat to democracy, but I'll hold my applause until she actually does something.

 

[joecct]

Whenever somebody posts something about GWB becoming popular again (and I realize Bob isn't being overly serious about it) I always ask the same question:

"So, does that mean Bush will be campaigning with the GOP nominee next year?" Oddly enough, I never get an affirmative response.

But back to the point. Kep, you gotta give it up for Hillary after reading this article:

http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a35474/hillary-clinton-voting-rights-act/

Did Carter campaign for Mondale, Dukaikis, or Clinton?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Did Carter campaign for Mondale, Dukaikis, or Clinton?

I think that's his point.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

There's very little in there that's substantive. I'm glad her campaign manager and focus group coordinator realize voter suppression and the Republicans' new Jim Crow is a huge threat to democracy, but I'll hold my applause until she actually does something.

Umm...Kep, she's not actually in office yet. Her campaign is filing lawsuits in these voter supression states which is about the most impactful thing they can do. Right now that's the best way to beat these things - in court.

 

[Rover]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

I think that's his point.

Precisely. I for one am all for GWB's rehabilitation, and I'd LOVE to see him stumping for the GOP nominee this year and next.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Well then we agree it's not a trendline. To me that's what it sounded like you were talking about, where the expectation was that Hillary would continue to tilt things toward Dem interests, continuing what Obama has done, but you were bemoaning that Hillary wouldn't tilt at an even faster rate. My only point was that Hillary will inevitably tilt things further toward Dem interests if she's sitting in the White House, and it sounded to me like you weren't expecting that to happen.

LOL

Obama is more conservative than Bush was. It's laughable for anyone to say any "dem" interests have been met during the Obama administration.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

Umm...Kep, she's not actually in office yet. Her campaign is filing lawsuits in these voter supression states which is about the most impactful thing they can do. Right now that's the best way to beat these things - in court.

I'm not saying I'm expecting her to do more now. I'm saying I'm not going to bust a nut over her until she's in power and having her AG bring the hammer down on these Latter Day Dixiecrats.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

LOL

Obama is more conservative than Bush was. It's laughable for anyone to say any "dem" interests have been met during the Obama administration.

Obama has taken the ball and run with it on Lilly Ledbetter, DADT, gay marriage, and of course Obamacare. Those are all big advances over where we were before he took office.

Where Obama has failed is on rolling back the surveillance state and the military-intelligence complex. He ran on those things too, and he let us down. Perhaps he felt that he didn't have backing from Congressional Democrats anyway, so why waste the political capital. Perhaps he thought that was handing the GOP a cudgel to endanger his reelection and undo all the good he did on the social front. Or perhaps he's just really not interested in reforming those abusive and dangerous institutions.

In any case, just as Rover stops us from going too far running Hillary to the right, I'll defend Obama here: on social issues he has been a phenomenal success and I'd be happy to see a Democratic successor just hold the line (while working on re-regulation, far greater (pre-1980 at least) progressivity in the tax code, outlawing campaign fund bribery, and mil-int reforms).

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: Campaign 2016 -- Don't Let the Perfect Become the Enemy of the Good

I see Scooby is as wacko as always.