Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

ECAC final attendance history
2011 @Cornell featuring Cornell: 2711
2010 @Cornell featuring Cornell: 1528
2009 @Harvard, neutral: 398
2008 @Harvard featuring Harvard: 1284
2007 @Dartmouth featuring Dartmouth: 2186
2006 @SLU, neutral: 408
2005 @Union, neutral: 402
2004 @Union, neutral: 713
2003 @Brown, neutral: 659
2002 @Dartmouth featuring Dartmouth: 1527
2001 @Dartmouth featuring Dartmouth: 2592
2000 @Brown featuring Brown: 2107

So the five neutral ECAC finals TOTAL had as many fans as Lynah tonight. Yeah, I think the current system is ok.

 

[papulaisle]

Neutral site...

Neutral site...

ECAC final attendance history
2011 @Cornell featuring Cornell: 2711
2010 @Cornell featuring Cornell: 1528
2009 @Harvard, neutral: 398
2008 @Harvard featuring Harvard: 1284
2007 @Dartmouth featuring Dartmouth: 2186
2006 @SLU, neutral: 408
2005 @Union, neutral: 402
2004 @Union, neutral: 713
2003 @Brown, neutral: 659
2002 @Dartmouth featuring Dartmouth: 1527
2001 @Dartmouth featuring Dartmouth: 2592
2000 @Brown featuring Brown: 2107

So the five neutral ECAC finals TOTAL had as many fans as Lynah tonight. Yeah, I think the current system is ok.

Is OK if your aim is to bring in fans (most of whom will be for the team who's name is on the door.)
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Isn't OK if your aim is to be fair, just, equitable... which IMHO will in the loooong run bring the most fans to the game.

 

[MICZamboni]

Re: Neutral site...

Re: Neutral site...

Is OK if your aim is to bring in fans (most of whom will be for the team who's name is on the door.)
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Isn't OK if your aim is to be fair, just, equitable... which IMHO will in the loooong run bring the most fans to the game.

I hope Mercyhurst can win next week so they get to play in front of their hometown fans in the Frozen Four. I hear tickets are going well and someone told me yesterday only 1500 remain. I believe the Erie Civic Center holds something like 6100.

 

[papulaisle]

Dartmouth 2011 Women's ice Hockey team

Dartmouth 2011 Women's ice Hockey team

I am content with my team.

They were ranked eighth, of twelve teams in the preseason rankings in their league-the ECAC. Their motto, goal, thus, perhaps became... for the season, to "surprise".

A few teams, a few people.

It remains their goal until they win the National Championship, are barred from further play...

From Jan. 15 forward, when their record was 9 and 8, they roused themselves, I think; defeated an undefeated (ECAC, Ivy) Cornell (at home, Dave) 4-2 and defeated Harvard (OnMAA- 'one of the Bay State Ivy's', is Harvard...), their arch rival in my opinion, 4-1 (at Harvard) while also/and along the way, succeeded in defeating a rising Clarkson women's effort, with an eye on the Ring, in OT, after trailing going into the last minute of the rubber match down a player and down a goal.

Grit?

They matched up and closed the regular season in the third slot.

Their record going into the NCAA tourney, should the fickle finger of fate so deem it, is 22-11-0.

Two days later (after their visit to the Hub) we need their appearance in Central New York to face the Big Red IN ITHACA who has safely, to their credit, idled nightly down to Lynah- an easy amble from the dorm, where they could in their own house look to dismantle visiting upstate by bus successive other tourney entries.

Not too shabby an assignment in front of a largely hometown throng.

I guess, I am "content" as our/these women rose and met what they saw as their challenge. Isn't this closest to the NCAA's goal as to building character through participation in sport?

I think so.

Bravo (and Thanks!), Dartmouth and Coach H. and his fab staff and all associated with the 2011 Big Green Women's Ice Hockey Team!

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

In my previous analysis, I forgot to mention that Minnesota now loses the pairwise comparison with UMD. ARM had pointed this out a while ago. Reason is the additional loss to Wisconsin lowers Minnesota's record vs. RPI top 12 and record vs. teams under consideration.

Even though Minnesota loses pairwise comparisons to Mercyhurst and UMD, I think any thoughtful comparison of the teams still will place Minnesota 4th.

A BC win over Northeastern would raise their RPI up to about .5850 by my calculations, within a hair of Minnesota. This is closer than I'd realized. There is some chance the committee could give that comparison to BC.

Teams 4-7 are so close there are many different interpretations. I don't think I can even entirely rule out the possibility that Minnesota gets ranked 7th, though I think that'd be a terrible interpretation of the data.

 

[granddaddyscout]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

In my previous analysis, I forgot to mention that Minnesota now loses the pairwise comparison with UMD. ARM had pointed this out a while ago. Reason is the additional loss to Wisconsin lowers Minnesota's record vs. RPI top 12 and record vs. teams under consideration.

Even though Minnesota loses pairwise comparisons to Mercyhurst and UMD, I think any thoughtful comparison of the teams still will place Minnesota 4th.

A BC win over Northeastern would raise their RPI up to about .5850 by my calculations, within a hair of Minnesota. This is closer than I'd realized. There is some chance the committee could give that comparison to BC.

Teams 4-7 are so close there are many different interpretations. I don't think I can even entirely rule out the possibility that Minnesota gets ranked 7th, though I think that'd be a terrible interpretation of the data.

I don't doubt your analysis or conclusions, but Minnesota not ending up as one of the top 4 seeds would seem almost criminal. All of this seems to reinforce that the system needs to ne adjusted to better reflect strength of schedule factors. Minnesota takes UW into OT and they drop, BU loses in regulation to Northeastern and they hold their spot. BC needs OT to beat PU and with a win over Northeastern they could possible overtake Minny. It is absolutly absurd. I think that right now Minny may be the 2nd best team in the country and I bet the prove it next weekend no matter who or where they play.

 

[ARM]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

In my previous analysis, I forgot to mention that Minnesota now loses the pairwise comparison with UMD. ARM had pointed this out a while ago. Reason is the additional loss to Wisconsin lowers Minnesota's record vs. RPI top 12 and record vs. teams under consideration.

It wasn't me, although I was involved in the discussion.

Teams 4-7 are so close there are many different interpretations. I don't think I can even entirely rule out the possibility that Minnesota gets ranked 7th, though I think that'd be a terrible interpretation of the data.

Given the #7 team still gets an invite, I guess it is a better fate than being ranked 9th. From where we were at the end of October, I'll take it. The kids will just have to play their way back up if that's the case.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

So one reason NCAA selections can run against intuition is because they don't consider margin of victory, and I don't necessarily have a problem with that.

I think a clearer way to summarize the committee's practice is that they should rank teams by RPI unless there's a truly compelling case based on the other criteria, and the RPI now go (4) Mercyhurst, (5) Minnesota, (6) BC, (7) UMD.

I think Minnesota has a compelling case to be ranked ahead of Mercyhurst because Minnesota has far better results vs. teams in the RPI top 12 and better results against common opponents (a better win pct. vs. Wisconsin and Bemidji).

I don't think BC has a strong case to be ranked ahead of Mercyhurst because though they have better results against teams in the RPI 12 (such as the 2-2 vs. RPI top 3 BC) they performed poorly against two Mercyhurst common opponents, Maine & SLU.

The BC-Minnesota comparison is one I struggle with. BC and Minnesota don't have common opponents except Harvard who they both beat. BC has a much better record vs. the RPI top 12, while Minnesota has only a slight edge in RPI. Now I think Minnesota is clearly better, because I think the disparity in record vs. the RPI top 12 is all about the strength of those opponents, but the committee may not see it that way.

 

[techknowgn]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

BU has clinched #3 in the Pairwise Rankings but the committee really has to consider lowering their position because of Philip-Poulin's health, which they are permitted to do. I don't know what's fair here -- maybe #6 because that's halfway in between the position they earned and #9, the kind of team they are now.

I dont think Poulins health should be brought to bear. She's in the lineup, she played well for a player who had been off for a couple weeks. It was clear her timing was off to start the game, and she wasn't attacking the "hard" parts of the ice initially, but she was dynamic in the 3rd with two prime scoring chances that another goalie on another day wouldn't have stopped. I think if they somehow wound up playing on the road next week, they'd be walking out of there with a W.

I wonder about a game against BC, that would seem to be not an ideal first round matchup in the eyes of the NCAA. If it happens, I definitely think that would go BU's way if it's hosted at BU. It would be interesting to see if it's at BC. I went to the Beanpot game, the first one without Poulin, and it went BC's way. There's another week of healing and practice for Pou between now and next weekend.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

I dont think Poulins health should be brought to bear.

In the end, I agree with you. I went back on my original position in later posts in this thread. Poulin is available, there is no longer any NCAA criteria to penalize BU for poor play in recent games, and last year's committee still gave Harvard home ice despite the team losing its goaltender. I see no reason why BU won't be No. 3.

I wonder about a game against BC, that would seem to be not an ideal first round matchup in the eyes of the NCAA.

No, it's not ideal, but the NCAA hasn't shied away from intraconference quarterfinals in recent years. With 8 teams and 3 conferences, it can be tough to avoid intraconference play.

If it happens, I definitely think that would go BU's way if it's hosted at BU.

Well BU lost its only home game vs. BC and went 2-1 at BC so I'm not sure what the basis for your confidence is.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

The final PWR are up: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-rankings/d-i-women/

The Minnesota & BC RPIs are even closer than I had expected - .5862 for Minnesota and .5859 for BC.

 

[PPC Fan]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

Mercyhurst wins the pairwise with MN because of the COps. That win does not look so good upon further analysis. Mercyhurst went 0-1 against Wisconsin; Minnesota went 1-3-1 including an last night's overtime loss. Advantage Minnesota. When those are taken out, both are 8-1. Advantage neither.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

Mercyhurst wins the pairwise with MN because of the COps. That win does not look so good upon further analysis. Mercyhurst went 0-1 against Wisconsin; Minnesota went 1-3-1 including an last night's overtime loss. Advantage Minnesota. When those are taken out, both are 8-1. Advantage neither.

It's even a larger advantage than that.

Minnesota had a better record against Bemidji (3-1 as opposed to Mercyhurst's 1-1) and Wisconsin (1-3-1 as opposed to Mercyhurst's 0-1) and then both teams won all other common games.

My understanding is the committee will get to look at a comparison sheet that will allow them to recognize this fact, but no guarantees.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

Well 2 hours for the committee to decide. My read on the data is that BU is the clear 3, UMD is the clear 7, and I think you can find a rationalization for any order of teams between 4 through 6.

Ranking the teams 4 through 6 is a tougher call. The committee could look at that BC-Minnesota comparison either way, and past precedent seems to suggest they'd favor BC since the RPIs are so close. I think the Minnesota-Mercyhurst comparison is clearly in Minnesota's favor because Minnesota truly has the best results against common opponents. And I think Mercyhurst clearly takes the comparison against BC because of the RPI and common opponents (BC was worse against Maine & SLU).

In such a three-way tie, you sometimes you might just look at the RPI and let Mercyhurst host, and then you go Mercyhurst 4, Minnesota 5, BC 6. And usually RPI is considered the tiebreaker.

But again the RPIs are really close, and the committee could look at the results against the RPI top 12 as being the biggest difference. If that's the case they could go BC 4, Minnesota 5, and Mercyhurst 6.

You might complain that BC has a better record vs. RPI top 12 because they played weaker opponents. The committee will not view it that way. They'll see that BC went 2-2 against the No. 3 team, 1-0 against the No. 8 team, and 5-1-1 against the 10-12 teams. Minnesota went 1-3-1 against the No. 1 team, 2-2-1 against the No. 7 team, and 1-3-1 against the No. 9 team. Big advantage BC.

That bracket would give us:
Dartmouth at (1) Wisconsin
Minnesota at (4) BC

UMD at (2) Cornell
Mercyhurst at (3) BU

I think that one would have a lot of appeal to the committee.

 

[Bumbles]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

How big of a consideration is travel? Is there some kind of criteria for the travel aspect?

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

One further comment on the Minnesota-UMD comparison:

The biggest differences between the teams are:
(1) UMD was better against North Dakota
(2) Minnesota was better by 1 point in the overall WCHA schedule + QFinals + Semi, against a tougher quarterfinal opponent too, who were all common opponents
(3) Minnesota played in the WCHA game and lost
(4) Minnesota went 5-0 against a schedule that included two games against RPI top 12 Harvard, while UMD went 2-0 against UConn

To me it's clear Minnesota has a higher RPI because (2) and (4) matter more than (1) and (3) there, and any advantage UMD gets in the record vs. RPI top 12 because of (1) is nullified to some degree by (4), and that Minnesota should win the comparison.

Of course any normal person looking at the teams would just say Minnesota won the WCHA semifinal and should be seeded higher, but that's not what the NCAA does.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

How big of a consideration is travel? Is there some kind of criteria for the travel aspect?

Well one thought in this: the NCAA does seed the top 4 teams irrespective of travel so if BC does crack the top 4, there's no way they could just send them to BU. If BC doesn't make the top 4, it greatly increases the chances they get sent to BU, since teams 4-6 are so close, and they have the right to send BC to BU.

I wouldn't see them sending Dartmouth to Cornell and UMD to Wisconsin to save travel costs though. The committee in the past hasn't been willing to make that great a compromise on bracket integrity.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

Given the #7 team still gets an invite, I guess it is a better fate than being ranked 9th. From where we were at the end of October, I'll take it. The kids will just have to play their way back up if that's the case.

Yup....Did UMD not do something like that last year ?.

 

[ARM]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

Yup....Did UMD not do something like that last year ?.

No, UMD was the #2 seed.

 

[hockeyfan111]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

perhaps another consideration surrounding a bc/bu matchup is that it insures representation from Hockey East in the Frozen 4. Need to continue to grow the sport and breadth is as important as depth.