Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?
Ok, I just wanted to do one more comprehensive post on what I think will happen for NCAA selections.
First, I'll requote the NCAA criteria just so we're all on the same page. I omitted some RPI detalis for brevity.
The committee will evaluate a team’s season performance using the categories below.
• Rating Percentage Index (RPI)
• Head-to-head competition;
• Results versus common opponents; and
• Results against teams in the RPI top 12.
During the selection process, each of the above criteria will carry one point except
head-to-head competition, which will carry the number of points equal to the net difference in the results of these games (e.g., if Team A defeats Team B three out of four games, Team A would receive two points in the selection process). When comparing two teams, the committee reserves the right to weight criteria differently based on relative team performance. For example, if there is only a tiny fraction of a difference two teams records vs. common opponents, and a large difference in their results vs. teams under consideration, the committee may weight results vs. teams under consideration more heavily that common opponents.
In situations where a high impact player is unavailable, the committee may consider
this as part of its evaluation of the above criteria.
So I'll look at two cases (1) BC wins Hockey East, (2) Northeastern wins Hockey East
BC wins Hockey East
The final USCHO Pairwise Rankings will look like
1. Wisconsin
2. Cornell
3. BU
4. Mercyhurst
5. Minnesota
6. BC
7. UMD
8. Dartmouth
Are there any departures from the PWR for the committee? As ARM & I discussed earlier in the thread, I expect the committee to recognize the Minnesota's results vs. the RPI top 12 and vs. common opponents are clearly superior to Mercyhurst's and give Minnesota home ice accordingly.
I really don't see any other cases where the committee would see things differently than the PWR.
So this suggests a bracket of
Dartmouth at (1) Wisconsin
Mercyhurst at (4) Minnesota
UMD at (2) Cornell
BC at (3) BU
Would the committee go out of its way to swap out BC and avoid the intra-Hockey East matchup? I'm skeptical that they would. I think the fact BU and BC didn't play in the postseason already will help.
Northeastern wins Hockey East
Analysis same as above except now BC's RPI falls below UMD's, so I'd figure on a bracket of
Northeastern at (1) Wisconsin
Mercyhurst at (4) Minnesota
BC at (2) Cornell
UMD at (3) BU
A few other random thoughts
I thought at some times today maybe the committee would consider lowering BU's seed because of their recent struggles and Poulin's injury, but it seems hard to imagine them doing that since they still gave Harvard home ice without Kessler last year.
I thought there may be some case for putting Minnesota at No. 3 earlier today, but I think it's really hard for the committee to rank Minnesota above BU when Minnesota beats BU in none of the selection criteria. Maybe it could have been different if Minnesota won the WCHA title.
Imagine if...
The NCAA instead of its actual criteria used
(1) a statistical method for rankings instead of the RPI that property handles strength-of-schedule
(2) some kind of strength-of-schedule version of common opponents & record vs. teams under consideration
What would the tournament look like?
BC or Northeastern at (1) Wisconsin
Mercyhurst at (4) Minnesota-Duluth
North Dakota at (2) Cornell
BU at (3) Minnesota
Honestly I like that tournament a lot better, and I think Cornell and Minnesota should be on the other side of the bracket than Wisconsin.
This was the most successful WCHA to date and the NCAA criteria just completely miss that.
.....Watched the game today. Impressed with Trunzo. Hope Darty makes it into the tourney.