Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

Ok, an update on the Dartmouth vs. North Dakota comparison for the last NCAA bid.

So here's how it breaks down Dartmouth vs. North Dakota
-- obviously neither team can lose their championship and have a Harvard/QPac/Providence/Northeastern autobid.
-- obviously either team can advance with an autobid, and knock each other out if the other fails to win an autobid
-- If Dartmouth loses to Harvard, they're clearly out.
-- If North Dakota beats Wisconsin, they're clearly in over Dartmouth if Dartmouth doesn't win the ECAC
-- the one interesting case is if the Sioux lose to the Badgers, and if Dartmouth beats Harvard and loses to Cornell. This is actually what'll come down to if all the current poll favorites win. I expect the committee would take Dartmouth though for reasons I'll describe below.

Here's how each category breaks down in that interesting case (recall we're assuming North Dakota loses to Wisconsin and Dartmouth loses the final to Cornell)
-- common opponents, Dartmouth has some slight edge because they were 1-0 vs. Vermont while Sioux were 1-0-1. I don't think it'll be a major factor
-- record vs TUC, would be even Dartmouth 4-6, Sioux 6-9, though the Sioux would clearly have played tougher teams.
-- RPI willl be close. Dartmouth was up .0003 before the Bemidji game. In this scenario I described, both teams go 1-1 against Harvard & Cornell and Bemidji & Wisconsin. The RPI of Dartmouth's 1-1 is about .56 and the RPI of UND's 1-1 will be about .55. The current RPIs are about .549. Dartmouth's RPI edge will clearly increase.

So it would seem going by the criteria, Dartmouth would have the 2-0 edge against UND in this scenario. But if you want to take subjectivity to the extreme, one could argue that the RPI and common opponent edges for Dartmouth are tiny, and that UND has the more impressive results against the top 12 teams even though the win pct is the same. Yet Dartmouth would note they've beaten Cornell, while UND is 0-5 vs. Wisconsin in this scenario. Given all this, I expect Dartmouth would win this comparison.

 

[granddaddyscout]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

Ok, an update on the Dartmouth vs. North Dakota comparison for the last NCAA bid.

So here's how it breaks down Dartmouth vs. North Dakota
-- obviously neither team can lose their championship and have a Harvard/QPac/Providence/Northeastern autobid.
-- obviously either team can advance with an autobid, and knock each other out if the other fails to win an autobid
-- If Dartmouth loses to Harvard, they're clearly out.
-- If North Dakota beats Wisconsin, they're clearly in over Dartmouth if Dartmouth doesn't win the ECAC
-- the one interesting case is if the Sioux lose to the Badgers, and if Dartmouth beats Harvard and loses to Cornell. This is actually what'll come down to if all the current poll favorites win. I expect the committee would take Dartmouth though for reasons I'll describe below.

Here's how each category breaks down in that interesting case (recall we're assuming North Dakota loses to Wisconsin and Dartmouth loses the final to Cornell)
-- common opponents, Dartmouth has some slight edge because they were 1-0 vs. Vermont while Sioux were 1-0-1. I don't think it'll be a major factor
-- record vs TUC, would be even Dartmouth 4-6, Sioux 6-9, though the Sioux would clearly have played tougher teams.
-- RPI willl be close. Dartmouth was up .0003 before the Bemidji game. In this scenario I described, both teams go 1-1 against Harvard & Cornell and Bemidji & Wisconsin. The RPI of Dartmouth's 1-1 is about .56 and the RPI of UND's 1-1 will be about .55. The current RPIs are about .549. Dartmouth's RPI edge will clearly increase.

So it would seem going by the criteria, Dartmouth would have the 2-0 edge against UND in this scenario. But if you want to take subjectivity to the extreme, one could argue that the RPI and common opponent edges for Dartmouth are tiny, and that UND has the more impressive results against the top 12 teams even though the win pct is the same. Yet Dartmouth would note they've beaten Cornell, while UND is 0-5 vs. Wisconsin in this scenario. Given all this, I expect Dartmouth would win this comparison.

This seems a lot like a justification for what you would like to se happen than a sound argument for Dartmouth over ND

 

[ARM]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

This seems a lot like a justification for what you would like to se happen than a sound argument for Dartmouth over ND

No, it is an analysis of the math behind the criteria that the NCAA selection committee uses.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

This seems a lot like a justification for what you would like to se happen than a sound argument for Dartmouth over ND

Given the explanation and knowledge of the poster, would not bet against it. To me it appears to be a non-partizan analysis of facts.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

thanks all

granddaddyscout -- If you want to know what I want to happen, on some level I'd be happier to see North Dakota in the tournament than Dartmouth. I like seeing fresh blood in there, like Cornell last year. It's a bit of downer though the possibility that if UND does make it, it seems likely they'll end up playing Wisconsin a 6th time (after having gone 0-5 potentially). But in terms of the better tournament, I'd like having UND in there -- I think you want the last teams in that have the best potential to win tournament games against the top 5-6 teams, and UND has proven that more than Dartmouth this season. UND has 5 wins (total) over UMD and Minnesota. Dartmouth has the win over Cornell.

If the selection was run more like basketball, where it's more subjective and quality wins are highly valued, I suspect UND might be picked. But that's not the criteria we have. And if Dartmouth beats Harvard and UND loses to Wisconsin, I just don't see the committee picking UND for the reasons laid out below. I agree there are objective measures suggesting this is the deepest WCHA ever, but the criteria the NCAA uses just don't do enough to adjust for strength-of-schedule.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

I'll try to give a summary of the race for NCAA quarterfinal home ice, though it's complicated:

Teams 4-7 are really close in RPI, and team 3 isn't that far ahead, so it's pretty wide open still. I might have said that the UMD-Minnesota winner was in a good shape for home ice but that's pretty wrong. (ARM was right in the Minnesota thread on his analysis of Minnesota's loss to North Dakota being costly)

Minnesota or UMD winning the WCHA should be in good shape for home ice, but otherwise, Mercyhurst or BC could cause trouble for the WCHA runner-up.

If Mercyhurst wins the CHA, their RPI would be ahead of a Minnesota or UMD team that loses the WCHA final to Wisconsin. Now I still think there's a case for the committee to weight the huge "Record vs RPI top 12" advantage for the WCHA runner up and rank whoever that is above Mercyhurst. But a concern is, given the gray area, would the committee deny Mercyhurst a home ice quarterfinal in a year they're hosting the Frozen Four?

(aside: it shows how absurd the RPI is when a win over UMD and loss to Wisconsin is worth less than winning the CHA, but that's life. Also, WCHA fans should root for Wayne State to win the play-in for the CHA quarterfinal. Also root for Syracuse over Niagara but that one matters less.)

BC is potentially more of a problem for Minnesota/UMD winner than Mercyhurst, though BC has a bit tougher conference championship road. If BC wins Hockey East, I estimate their RPI will end up slightly below a CHA champion Mercyhurst and slightly above the WCHA runner-up. BC will also have a great record vs. the RPI top 12. My guess is the committee would give a Hockey East champion BC home ice over a CHA champion Mercyhurst and a Minnesota/UMD WCHA runner-up, but it's still very close and you could easily pick Mercyhurst too.

In Pairwise terms, it appears BU has the No. 3 locked up. Even if they lose to Northeastern, their RPI falls at worse to .593 well above the 4th-7th pack. But a question with BU is, is Philip-Poulin 100%? BU could fall to 3-3-1 or 4-3-1 since her injury if they don't win Hockey East. As in basketball, the committee does have the option to seed BU lower if they think an injury to a key player will effect their tournament performance. (The only other time this ever really came up was in 2004 when Dartmouth and SLU lost players to Hockey Canada, the committee still selected them.) But that would be highly controversial.

If you're Mercyhurst/Minnesota/UMD, would you rather host an NCAA a game or play at BU, the way they're playing? Of course angling to play at BU would be a terrible idea because you could instead end up at No. 7 at Cornell or out of the tournament entirely.

 

[ARM]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

If you're Mercyhurst/Minnesota/UMD, would you rather host an NCAA a game or play at BU, the way they're playing? Of course angling to play at BU would be a terrible idea because you could instead end up at No. 7 at Cornell or out of the tournament entirely.

The answer as to the best quarterfinal matchup probably depends on what a team's goal is, so it may be different for MC/UM/UMD. For the Lakers, I'm sure they are thinking just make it to the Frozen Four somehow, someway, and then feed off the big crowd once there. If I'm UMD or UM, ideally I want Wisconsin on the other side of the bracket so I don't have to think about them before the final. The worst-case scenario for UM/UMD is that they are paired in the first round and the winner gets the Badgers/#8-team. It has been a long time since Mercyhurst played Cornell, the Lakers didn't exactly set the world on fire, and they haven't played an NCAA-caliber opponent since. They look to be playing well know, but how can one be sure given their current competition? UMD in particular would have to feel rather confident with a first-round game in Erie, having won an NCAA road game as recently as 2 years ago. Hockey East has a decent field for their tournament and I don't think that the league as a whole was that bad this year, BU will have the motivation of their first-ever NCAA home game, so even w/o MPP, I'd expect them to be very tough to beat at home in the first round. Has Cornell played that well over the last month? If they win the ECAC over Q and Harv/Dart, they should be okay as far as being battle-tested. Despite all of their talent, it feels like the Big Red have come back to the pack a bit and no longer belong in the same breath as Wisconsin.

So after meandering around and arguing both sides for a paragraph, I'd have to say the #1 priority is just make the NCAA field and worry about your opponent later. I don't think that there is a glaring "gimme" opponent, and even those wind up to be wrong sometimes. Dartmouth looked like a safe bet at home over BC in 2007, and that game proved looks are deceiving. All of these teams are beatable -- yes, even Wisconsin. What varies is the margin for error with a given opponent, and outside of the Badgers, I don't know that there is a ton of variance.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

Cornell had a lousy month by their standards. They won 20 of their first 23 games by 2 goals or more, but only took 3 of their 8 games in February by that margin -- including a tie to Clarkson and loss to Dartmouth.

I still think Cornell has a higher ceiling than Mercyhurst or BU or BC, though I agree they shouldn't be in the same breath as Wisconsin.

One potentially interesting quarterfinal matchup would be if UMD falls to Minnesota and ends up at Cornell for the NCAA final rematch. That'd be fun.

 

[brookyone]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

Anyone know if the NCAA selections show will be broadcast?

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

If you go to the women's hockey tab on the NCAA broadcast schedule here http://web1.ncaa.org/NCAATV/exec/query it looks as if the selection and tournament will all be online.

It doesn't appear the final will be on CBS College Sports -- that's probably for the best. More people have good internet than these second-tier sports channels.

 

[ManBehindTheCurtain]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

It doesn't appear the final will be on CBS College Sports -- that's probably for the best. More people have good internet than these second-tier sports channels.

Disclaimer: I have high quality broadband AND I have those second-tier sports channels.

I have no problem with streaming video, the question will be whether or not it will be "good" internet. If there are decent production values including at least four cameras including slow motion replay capabilities and if the package includes competent voice talent then I have no problem whatsoever with watching on my monitor. That's going to be the question though, isn't it? Will the internet stream be up to the even somewhat modest standards for production values established in the past by second tier CBS College Sports.

I hope so.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

It doesn't appear the final will be on CBS College Sports -- that's probably for the best.

Disagree. I think that's garbage

 

[Vindy]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

Ok, an update on the Dartmouth vs. North Dakota comparison for the last NCAA bid.

So here's how it breaks down Dartmouth vs. North Dakota
-- obviously neither team can lose their championship and have a Harvard/QPac/Providence/Northeastern autobid.
-- obviously either team can advance with an autobid, and knock each other out if the other fails to win an autobid
-- If Dartmouth loses to Harvard, they're clearly out.
-- If North Dakota beats Wisconsin, they're clearly in over Dartmouth if Dartmouth doesn't win the ECAC
-- the one interesting case is if the Sioux lose to the Badgers, and if Dartmouth beats Harvard and loses to Cornell. This is actually what'll come down to if all the current poll favorites win. I expect the committee would take Dartmouth though for reasons I'll describe below.

Here's how each category breaks down in that interesting case (recall we're assuming North Dakota loses to Wisconsin and Dartmouth loses the final to Cornell)
-- common opponents, Dartmouth has some slight edge because they were 1-0 vs. Vermont while Sioux were 1-0-1. I don't think it'll be a major factor
-- record vs TUC, would be even Dartmouth 4-6, Sioux 6-9, though the Sioux would clearly have played tougher teams.
-- RPI willl be close. Dartmouth was up .0003 before the Bemidji game. In this scenario I described, both teams go 1-1 against Harvard & Cornell and Bemidji & Wisconsin. The RPI of Dartmouth's 1-1 is about .56 and the RPI of UND's 1-1 will be about .55. The current RPIs are about .549. Dartmouth's RPI edge will clearly increase.

So it would seem going by the criteria, Dartmouth would have the 2-0 edge against UND in this scenario. But if you want to take subjectivity to the extreme, one could argue that the RPI and common opponent edges for Dartmouth are tiny, and that UND has the more impressive results against the top 12 teams even though the win pct is the same. Yet Dartmouth would note they've beaten Cornell, while UND is 0-5 vs. Wisconsin in this scenario. Given all this, I expect Dartmouth would win this comparison.

I think the RPIs will be close enough that the Hockey East Tourney could factor in. UND would benefit from BU winning, while Dartmouth would benefit if BC did.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

I think the RPIs will be close enough that the Hockey East Tourney could factor in. UND would benefit from BU winning, while Dartmouth would benefit if BC did.

Maybe... an opponent's win is worth about (1/GP)*(1/opponent's game played) * 24/100 which is approximately .0002. But I believe Dartmouth's gap over North Dakota widens to be more like .0010 under the scenario I described, so that the Hockey East results won't be enough to take away Dartmouth's edge. But we'll see.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

So if my analysis below is right, North Dakota must beat Wisconsin to get an NCAA berth. Good luck with that Sioux. Dartmouth likely in the tourney and headed to Wisconsin unless North Dakota wins that game or PC/NU win Hockey East.

 

[DumbStruck]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

In 36 hours we will all know the outcome. But looking at the RPI rankings (lots of ties) and considering the field of games today & tomorrow, conference championships could really play havoc with final pairings. Granted, most/all of top 8 should be in yet pairing could change dramatically. A Dartmouth win coupled with a Minnesota victory could move everything around. Throw in a crazy outcome in Hockey East and its going to be a bumpy night. Great for fans...fun times.

 

[hockeyfan111]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

friday's games seem to have brought some clarity to the final 8. it looks like the top 6 are in, just a matter of order. looks like bc, pc, nd, northeastern and dartmouth fighting it out for the final bids at this time. bc would appear to have the most opportunity; win or lose. if bc wins today, they are clearly in. if bc loses, then will have to see who wins the ecac and hockey east. a pc or northeastern victory in HE really creates mayhem; again depending upon what happens in ECAC.
exciting time of the season. brings back the pre-college memories of all those weekend tournaments where parents spent endless hours looking at the results sheet attempting to figure out how their team could advance (or go home!!). good luck to all and Go Eagles.

 

[JosephPSchmoe]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

The NCAA's annual rite of mystery, otherwise known as the selection process, will play out tomorrow. Until then, speculate away.

 

[dave1381]

The NCAA's annual rite of mystery, otherwise known as the selection process, will play out tomorrow. Until then, speculate away.

Well it's not like we know nothing about the selection process. It's the pairings that tend to be more of a mystery.

Here's a summary:
North Dakota's season is over. I explained why they lose out to Dartmouth regardless of the outcome of the ECAC final.

Dartmouth is in unless they lose to Cornell and PC/NU win Hockey East.

I expect that UMD is in no matter what, though it's not obvious. UMD finishes ahead of BC in the pairwise rankings in any scenario where PC or Northeastern win Hockey East. But you can worry that if that happened and Dartmouth won the ECAC, the committee could take BC over UMD for the last bid on basis of BC's much stronger record against RPI top 12. That would be terrible since UMD has played much better teams within the top 12 in my opinion, but I wouldn't entirely rule out the committee making such a decision.

BC could still finish anywhere from 4th to out. I expect they get home ice by winning Hockey East plus a Minnesota loss. I discussed the possible scenarios for the 4th seed earlier in the thread. If Minnesota wins or BC loses, I expect Minnesota gets home ice, though it'll be close with Mercyhurst assuming they win the CHA.

 

[ARM]

Re: Alright....so how do NCAA invitations shake out?

If Minnesota wins or BC loses, I expect Minnesota gets home ice, though it'll be close with Mercyhurst assuming they win the CHA.

I'm assuming that the "close with Mercyhurst" only applies to the BC loses scenario, not the Minnesota wins case. Minnesota is ahead of the Lakers right now, and a hypothetical win over Wisconsin should count for more than one over Syracuse.

In other sports, committees are always talking about a team's "body of work". Mercyhurst has the impressive OT win on the road over Cornell. That is backed up by ... a split with Bemidji? A split with SLU? If just hammering on the bottom half of the D-I teams is good enough to get home ice, then teams should really attempt to schedule softer, because these criteria will reward wins more so than quality of opposition.